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Liquidity

Bitcoin - Sweep, Reclaim, Then Continuation Lower?Higher Timeframe Context Price continues to respect a broader bearish structure, with lower highs forming after the previous distribution phase. The recent downside expansion did not occur randomly, it aligned with higher timeframe weakness and persistent sell-side pressure. Even though support has reacted before, the overall order flow still favors sellers until proven otherwise. This keeps any upside move categorized as corrective rather than a true shift in trend. Liquidity Event and Support Reclaim The key technical development here is the sweep of a weekly low followed by a close back above it and inside a strong weekly support zone. This type of behavior often signals engineered liquidity rather than genuine acceptance below the level. When price quickly reclaims support after taking stops, it typically creates the fuel for a relief move, as trapped shorts begin to cover and responsive buyers step in. Short-Term Repricing Potential With liquidity now collected from below, price has room to rotate higher in the near term. The path above contains inefficiencies that remain unfilled, particularly the daily imbalance that sits overhead. Markets tend to revisit these gaps as part of delivery, especially after a sweep and reclaim sequence. In addition, a cluster of lower timeframe consolidation rests in that same region, making it an attractive draw for price before any larger directional decision. Confluence With Lower Timeframe Targets The projected push higher is not expected to mark a bullish reversal, but rather a controlled retracement into areas where liquidity is resting. A sweep of the intraday consolidation would effectively reset positioning and potentially provide higher timeframe sellers with improved entry locations. When corrective rallies move into imbalance while the macro structure remains bearish, they often transition into continuation legs once the rebalancing is complete. Why The Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite the strong reaction from support, nothing in the current structure suggests a confirmed shift in market direction. The broader pattern still points downward, and rallies should be viewed through the lens of distribution until market structure decisively changes. If price delivers into the overhead targets and begins to show rejection, it would reinforce the idea that the recent reclaim was simply a setup for continuation rather than accumulation. Conclusion The sweep and reclaim of weekly support opens the door for a temporary move higher, primarily driven by imbalance fills and liquidity resting within nearby consolidations. However, with the higher timeframe structure still leaning bearish, the expectation is for this relief rally to eventually exhaust itself and transition into another leg lower. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
32
BTCUSD Intraday Long — Contextual ExpectationWithin the daily composite framework and considering the current intensity of market buying, I’m expecting a continuation of the upside move toward the nearest area of friction. Key zone of interest: SP 68,700 – 69,150 Current context: -sustained market buyer pressure -divergence in the dynamic volume component -supportive local structure -liquidity and liquidation-related factors Taken together, these elements increase the probability of a move toward the outlined zone in the near term. Idea invalidation: Acceptance and consolidation below 64,400. This is a counter-trend perspective, therefore risk remains elevated. Execution, if any, will be strictly conditional and aligned with my system and risk parameters.
Long
by linkort
3
Why Market ChangesMarkets change because participation changes. Price is not driven by patterns. It is driven by order flow, liquidity conditions, and shifting incentives across timeframes. When those inputs change, the behaviour of the chart changes with them. The same strategy can look flawless for weeks and then feel unusable, not because the market became random, but because the environment that supported the edge is no longer present. One driver is liquidity. Crypto liquidity is not stable. Depth increases during overlap sessions and dries up during dead zones. When liquidity is thick, moves are cleaner, levels respect more often, and retests tend to hold. When liquidity thins, spreads widen, stops get tagged more frequently, and structure becomes less reliable on lower timeframes. Many traders call this manipulation. It is often just a liquidity problem. Another driver is volatility regime. Volatility expands when uncertainty rises, new information enters, or leverage builds and gets forced out. Volatility compresses when participation slows and the market waits for fuel. Strategies that rely on tight invalidation distance struggle during expansion because candle ranges widen and execution becomes less precise. Strategies that rely on momentum struggle during compression because price rotates without follow-through. A strategy does not stop working. It becomes mismatched with the regime. Market phase also matters. Trends, ranges, and transitions behave differently because the market is doing different work. Trends move between liquidity pools with momentum. Ranges build inventory and sweep both sides repeatedly. Transitions are messy because control is shifting and both sides are active. Traders lose most money in transitions because they apply trend logic to a market that is no longer trending. Timeframe alignment is another source of change. A clean intraday trend can exist inside a higher timeframe range. A strong lower timeframe breakout can occur while the higher timeframe is still completing a liquidity objective in the opposite direction. When timeframes are aligned, trades feel easy. When timeframes conflict, trades feel like constant stop hunts. Finally, participants adapt. When one side becomes crowded, the market seeks the liquidity created by that crowd. Retail tends to chase clean breakouts and obvious levels. Larger participants use those obvious levels to fill positions. As positioning shifts, the market shifts with it. Price changes behaviour because the incentives behind price change. The practical takeaway is simple: your job is not to predict direction. Your job is to diagnose environment before you execute. Liquidity conditions, volatility regime, market phase, and timeframe alignment should decide whether you trade aggressively, trade selectively, or stay flat. Consistency comes from adapting exposure to conditions, not forcing the same behaviour onto every chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
2
ETHUSD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: ETHUSD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie: 🚀 Continuation Rate (74.5%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal. 🔥 Streak (9) & Streak Pct (4%): We are at the 9th consecutive impulse. It's a mature trend (we are in the 4th percentile of trend extension), so watch those stop losses, but as long as the music plays, we dance. 🔄 Retest (78.6%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 78.6% of the time. 💥 BOS/Ret Rate (65.2%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS. 🎯 Extension Rate (1.8x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.8 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit. 2. Execution Plan on Chart Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss: Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 15m (Blue Band) and the stop loss a few pips above the zone at the structural high. Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.8x relative to the pullback leg. Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 1963.2 Stop Loss: 2021.9 Take Profit: 1563.2 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by MBARRECA
QQQ - 4 Feb 2026 Update - Sweeps completed - Observation Mode Hey everyone, JP Quintero here Over the past few weeks, I’ve been sharing some of my personal ideas, key levels, and structures on a few tickers and ETFs. Quick background: I’ve been studying and trading the markets for about 5 years now. Over the past couple of years, I went through 2 solid mentorships, and after that my focus became much clearer. Today, I base most of my trading, especially options, on liquidity concepts, order flow, ICT principles, and market structure. I don’t trade news, indicators, or classic chart patterns. I only use those to understand where retail liquidity is likely sitting and to understand a bit the retail Psychology. What I actually trade is institutional sweeps, absorption, and follow-through with intent. Back to my January 28th QQQ post That day, I mentioned I had closed my remaining positions, both bull put spreads structured around the 600 area. These were trades I had put on a couple of weeks before, and one about a week prior to the 28th. The reason I stepped aside was simple. After a strong multi-day rally, I started seeing clear signs of deceleration around 635–636, along with a wick and liquidity sweep at the last all time highs. Typical behavior after extended moves, price often leaves imbalances behind and then price comes back to fix those gaps. So I closed the trades and decided to observe. And that’s exactly what played out. Price pulled back and swept the zones I had highlighted on my last post: The 626 imbalance / FVG The 616 imbalance The 607–608 liquidity zone Today, price finally tagged 600, right where my previous trades were structured. After the market close, i saw price bounce back toward the 609 afterhours, but it will most probably retrace a bit back tomorrow at opening. At the moment, there’s no strong bearish conviction, but also no clear bullish conviction either. If we had closed decisively below 600, I’d be leaning much more bearish. For now, this still looks like a range and rebalancing phase after the strong run-up. I’m still not convinced enough to put on any position right now BUT If I had to choose something, it would be a bull put spread around the 580 area (sell 580 / buy 575 or 570), but I’m far from 100% on that idea. Over the next couple of sessions Thursday and Friday I’m watching two main scenarios: A clear buying reaction at 600 (rejection candle, volume, higher low forming), which could create a reasonable setup around 580 Or a continued drift lower with no real defense, pointing to a slower range or mild bearish bias Nothing is clear at this point. There’s no high-probability edge in either direction. Plan is straightforward to Wait and Observe. as i always this is not a recommendation. This post is part of my personal trading journal. It’s also worth mentioning that there’s a clear sector rotation happening, capital moving out of large cap tech, growth, and AI names into energy, industrials, value, and small caps. That rotation is adding extra pressure to the Nasdaq and the Qs Bottom line: Sweep down to 600 completed, No clear direction yet, Full observation mode! i have a couple alerts already in place Thanks a lot for taking the time to read my post, really appreciate it! Over the next few weeks, I’m planning to start sharing ideas in VIDEO format here on TradingView. I’ve been asked a few times what indicators or systems I use, and honestly, I use very few indicators. My trading is simple and uncluttered, focused primarily on liquidity. I’ll be explaining this more in short videos soon. If you have any questions, feedback, or want to understand my approach in more depth, feel free to reach out. I answer to all questions every time for FREE your feedback helps me grow, and we both learn in the process. likes(boosts) and comments supper appreciated also :D See you in the next update. Stay clear and disciplined. God bless
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JPQuinter09
4
AUDCAD (AC) - Bullish | HTF Premium & Cautionary ObservationHigher Time Frame Bias AUDCAD remains bullish, printing higher highs and higher lows. Price recently confirmed a high by sweeping internal liquidity, validating the HTF bullish structure. Observation & Midterm Context • There are two key zones to note: 1. Thin, small orange zone near the inducement sweep → low probability area, risky to take early positions 2. Large, visible orange order block → high probability zone for bullish continuation if price respects market cycle phases • Currently, price is dancing in premium territory, increasing the chance of distribution and manipulation • For a clean bullish confirmation, price would need to sweep buy-side liquidity above the highs and show a structural shift, which has not occurred yet Execution & Mindset • Focus only on high probability zones (the large orange OB) • Sit on hands, track footprints, and speculate quietly until alignment • Avoid early inducements that flush weak participants or counter-trend traders Patience & Edge Patience is the key. Tracking is the edge. Observe structure, market footprints, and HTF behavior before committing — this discipline preserves the subtle 1% edge in rare market conditions.
Long
by Juicemannn
Bitcoin Weekly Downtrend Liquidity Zones RSI WeaknessOn the BTCUSDT weekly timeframe, the market structure clearly shows a continuation of the downtrend with consistent lower lows. The RSI is gradually moving toward oversold territory, signaling sustained weakness rather than a reversal. At the same time, selling liquidity is slowly drying out, which often precedes deeper liquidity hunts before any meaningful recovery. From a liquidity perspective, the 70K zone has already been cleared. The next major liquidity pool is visible around 60K, followed by a deeper zone near 44K. In an extreme macro scenario such as a recession or global risk-off event, Bitcoin could revisit the 30K region, with a very low-probability extension toward 18K–19K. These levels are not predictions but possible downside liquidity targets based on historical price behavior. At this stage, price discovery remains bearish, and there is no confirmation of trend reversal. A sustainable upside move is unlikely without a strong weekly candle close reclaiming key resistance levels. Until that confirmation appears, expectations should remain conservative. From a long-term accumulation perspective, the 50K–40K range stands out as a high-probability cost-averaging zone, provided the market stabilizes within this region. Patience is critical, as early entries without weekly confirmation carry higher risk. This bearish outlook is not sudden. The downside scenario was highlighted earlier, starting from late September and October, and the market continues to respect that structure. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining where the next major higher-timeframe support forms.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by crypto_vulture_signals
1
SMC Hidden FVG + Rejection Block Road MapSell Trade is ready.. Sell trade is ready according to SMC. If price reaches this sell area then we'll look for rejection candle combine with clear Mss. Let's conquer this trade with precision. This XAUUSD analysis is built on structure, liquidity and smart money logic, not on guesswork. 🧠 Final Thought If you understand liquidity, imbalance and structure, you stop chasing price — you start letting price come to you. 👉 Do you agree with this bearish roadmap, or do you see a different liquidity draw? Comment your view below — let’s read the market together.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Jayartolentiono90
GBPUSD – 1H | Brief Breakdown Price is consolidating above a key demand zone (≈1.3685–1.3700) after a corrective move. The structure shows higher lows forming, suggesting accumulation before expansion. As long as price holds this base, bias remains bullish. 📌 Signal Idea Buy zone: 1.3685–1.3700 (retest & hold) Invalidation: Clean break below demand Targets: Short-term: previous range highs Extension: 1.618 fib / 1.40+ area (measured move) This is a classic consolidation → impulse setup. Patience for confirmation = better R:R. If you like clean structure-based trades, HTF bias + LTF execution, follow my TradingView for more real-time breakdowns and trade ideas. Let’s trade smart, not noisy. 🚀📈 This is not a financial advice. I don’t sell hype — I trade structure, liquidity, and timing. If you want: 🔔 Real-time scalping signals 📊 Clean entries with clear invalidation 🧠 Liquidity-based execution (not indicators) 👉 Follow & trade with precision, not emotion 👉 Join my signals — let the chart do the talking Follow for more.
Long
by D1GITALTRADES
SOLUSD Under Pressure | Liquidity Points in FocusSolana (SOLUSD) is currently trading in a bearish market structure, with price respecting the range high resistance and failing to reclaim the range midpoint (~107.30). After a clear Break in Market Structure (BMS), price expanded lower, leaving multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on the upside. These unfilled imbalances indicate that upside moves are likely to face selling pressure. Recent price action shows: Buy-side liquidity taken near internal highs Strong rejection from internal supply & FVG zones Price shifting back toward sell-side liquidity As long as SOL remains below the range mid and prior highs, the higher-probability scenario favors a continuation toward lower liquidity zones, with a potential reaction from demand after liquidity is swept. 📉 Bias: Bearish 📌 Key Focus: Sell-side liquidity → possible short-term reaction ❌ Invalidation: Acceptance above range mid and structure high ⚠️ This idea is based purely on technical analysis and price behavior, not financial advice.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by XAU_CAPITAL
ETHUSD Liquidity in ControlEthereum (ETHUSD) is currently trading in a negative higher-timeframe range, with price respecting the range high resistance and showing continued weakness below the range midpoint (~2291). Following a clear Break in Market Structure (BMS), price expanded lower and formed multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on pullbacks. These FVG zones are acting as supply areas, where price continues to face rejection. Key observations from recent price action: Buy-side liquidity taken near the upper internal range Rejection from discounted FVG zones inside the range Price reacting from sell-side liquidity near range lows Currently, ETH is consolidating after a downside sweep, suggesting the market is in a rebalancing phase. As long as price remains below the range mid and prior highs, the broader bearish structure remains intact, with volatility likely driven by liquidity interaction. 📌 Market Context: HTF Bias: Bearish Environment: Range → Liquidity Driven Focus: FVG reaction & liquidity levels ⚠️ This chart analysis is for educational and technical discussion only, not financial advice.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by XAU_CAPITAL
AUD/JPY Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table speaks clearly: there is a +7 differential, indicating a Strong Bullish bias that we cannot ignore. Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: RBA is at 3.85% post-hike, making rates attractive, while BoJ remains at 0.75%, still very low vs G7. Score AUD: +1 Score JPY: -1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: AUD is in Reflation with accelerating inflation; JPY is in Expansion (Goldilocks). Score AUD: +2 Score JPY: +1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: RBA is hawkish, being the first major to hike in 2026; BoJ is hawkish following the December hike but in a tactical pause. Score AUD: +1 Score JPY: +1 🎈 Inflation: Explanation: AUD at 3.8% is well above target; JPY at 2.91% keeps pressure on BoJ for tightening. Score AUD: +1 Score JPY: +1 📈 Growth/GDP: Explanation: AUD GDP (2.3%) is considered more robust compared to the weak JPY GDP at 0.5%. Score AUD: 0 Score JPY: -1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Current market appetite is neutral with no specific bias. Score AUD: 0 Score JPY: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Longs are strong for AUD with accelerating buying; JPY shorts are strong but buying is starting. Score AUD: +2 Score JPY: 0 🗞️ News Bonus: Explanation: RBA hiked 25bp three days ago; no relevant JPY news in the last 24h. Score AUD: +1 Score JPY: 0 Currency Score Summary: Total Score AUD: +8 (Strong Bullish) Total Score JPY: +1 (Bullish) Synthesis: AUD (Strong, Score +8): Very strong with RBA being the first major to hike in 2026 and a determined hawkish stance. JPY (Weak, Score +1): Benefits from a hawkish BoJ stance, but growth remains very weak at 0.5%. Conclusion: With this scenario, we are only looking for Long setups. 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 4H | Pair: AUD/JPY The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Look at the dashboard on the right: 🚀 Continuation Rate (72.2%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. 🔥 Streak (4) & Streak Pct (4): We are at the 4th consecutive impulse. It's a mature trend, but as long as the music plays, we dance. 🔄 Retest (41.2%): The indicator tells us that statistically, price retraces into the previous zone only 41.2% of the time. 💥 BOS/Ret Rate (68.1%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS. 🎯 Extension Rate (1.79x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.79 times the current pullback leg. 3. Execution Plan on Chart Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity: Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Demand Zone 4H (Cyan Band) and the stop loss a few pips below the zone. Take Profit: We leverage the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.79x relative to the pullback leg. Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 107.815 Stop Loss: 106.769 Take Profit: 112.011 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Long
by MBARRECA
Gold (15m) – Bullish Continuation SetupPrice is holding above the prior demand zone after a strong impulsive move up. We’re seeing higher lows forming with NY session divergence acting as fuel, not weakness. This consolidation looks like a healthy pause before expansion. The highlighted buy zone aligns with structure support and liquidity protection, while upside targets are mapped toward the 1.618 extension, where previous sell-side liquidity rests. As long as price holds above the base, bias remains bullish. 📈 Idea: Buy the dip → Hold structure → Target expansion ⚠️ Invalidation below demand zone 📌 Follow for real-time scalping & intraday signals I share structure-based entries, liquidity targets, and risk-defined trades — no indicators, just price. DM for more entries and professional help..
TVC:GOLDLong
by D1GITALTRADES
Hyperliquid: bull flag in play? key levels to watch aheadHyperliquid. Who’s riding this new perp beast or just watching from the sidelines? According to market chatter, the recent token launch plus growing derivatives volume keeps Hyperliquid in the spotlight, and today’s headlines about rising on-chain activity only added fuel to the narrative. On the 4H chart we’ve got a classic post-pump chill phase: sharp vertical move, then a sideways pullback between roughly 31 and 35 that looks like a bull flag. Volume on the run-up was heavy and is now fading while RSI cooled from overbought back to the 50–60 zone - a healthy reset instead of a trend break. I’m leaning long, expecting liquidity grabs toward 32-31 and then a push through 34 with eyes on 36-38. My plan: ✅ base case is that 31 holds as key support and price grinds higher toward 36 first, 38 if momentum returns. ⚠️ If we start closing 4H candles below 31 and especially under 29.7, I’ll treat it as a local top and look for deeper buys down in the lower green zones. I might be wrong, but I’d rather wait for the dip than FOMO into the last green candle at the highs.
by Trade_Logic_AI
1
XAUUSD: High-Volume Correction After Bullish ImpulseMarket Read From the recent swing low, Gold has printed a clear bullish impulse. The move was strong, directional, and momentum-driven. The current pause is best interpreted as a high-volume correction , not a bearish reversal. At this stage, there is no technical reason for downside as long as price holds the corrective base and structure remains intact. Structure Breakdown Strong bullish impulse from the lows (clean expansion). Followed by a tight, high-volume consolidation (time correction, not price damage). No bearish displacement or structural breakdown inside the correction. Primary Thesis This correction is likely a base for impulse repetition . A continuation higher is expected only after a confirmed breakout . No breakout = no trade. Breakout Confirmation Criteria (Mandatory) Liquidity Sweep: Short-term highs taken before expansion. Displacement: Strong candle bodies breaking the range, not wicks. Imbalance (FVG): Clear inefficiency created on the breakout leg. Acceptance: Price must hold above the breakout level. Invalidation Rule: After the liquidity-grab wick, price must NOT accept beyond the wick extreme. Acceptance beyond it = bias shift. Bullish Continuation Scenario Condition: Clean breakout and acceptance above the current consolidation high. Expectation: Repetition of the prior bullish impulse. Targets: First reaction into nearby supply, then reassessment. Failure Scenario Condition: Acceptance below the corrective base. Implication: The move up is confirmed as a completed correction. Bias: Stand aside until a new structure forms. Execution Notes No anticipation. Only confirmation. Mid-range entries offer low edge. This is a continuation setup, not a bottom-picking trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GForecast
24
BTCUSD Liquidity Reaction | Market Structure in FocusBitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently trading in a negative higher-timeframe range, with price holding below the range midpoint (~76,082) and respecting overhead resistance near the range high (~79,300). After a clear Break in Market Structure (BMS), price delivered a corrective move higher but failed to sustain momentum, leaving Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on both sides of the range. Recent price action shows a strong sell-side liquidity sweep, followed by a short-term consolidation inside an internal FVG. Key observations: Sell-side liquidity taken below internal lows Reaction from discount demand zone Price consolidating below prior structure and range mid Upper FVG acting as short-term resistance This behavior suggests the market is in a rebalancing phase, where liquidity is being redistributed. As long as price remains below the range midpoint and prior highs, the broader bearish structure stays intact, while volatility is driven by liquidity interaction. 📌 Market Context: HTF Bias: Bearish Environment: Range → Liquidity driven Focus: FVG reaction & liquidity zones ⚠️ This analysis is shared for educational and technical purposes only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XAU_CAPITAL
NAS100 Liquidity Mapping | Institutional Price ActionNAS100 is currently trading within a positive higher-timeframe range, while recent price action shows a clear reaction from sell-side liquidity followed by consolidation. After a Change of Character (CHoCH) near the lower range, price delivered a strong impulsive move higher, creating multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) across the range. These imbalances are now acting as key reaction zones, where price is pausing and rebalancing. Recent observations: Sell-side liquidity swept near range lows Strong response from discount FVG areas Rejection from upper FVG near prior liquidity high (LH) Price is currently holding above internal support, suggesting the market is building structure. As long as price remains above the lower range, the path toward higher liquidity remains open. 📌 Market Context: HTF Bias: Positive Phase: Consolidation → Expansion Focus: Liquidity & FVG interaction ⚠️ This analysis is based on technical price behavior only and is shared for educational purposes.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by XAU_CAPITAL
GBPJPY Bearish Breakdown | Smart Money Targets 208.00GBPJPY is currently trading inside a clear consolidation range, with price respecting a broad demand zone below while repeatedly rejecting a premium supply area near 214.80–215.00. This behavior strongly suggests distribution at highs and the potential for a sharp bearish continuation. After a strong impulsive sell-off, price entered a sideways accumulation phase between 210.00–212.00, forming equal highs and weak bullish follow-through. The failure to reclaim the upper supply zone indicates that buyers are losing momentum. 📉 Market Structure & Price Action Multiple rejections from daily supply (214.50–215.00) Range-bound structure showing liquidity build-up Price currently holding mid-range → ideal distribution zone Bearish scenario favors a liquidity sweep above range highs followed by reversal 🧱 Key Levels Major Supply / Resistance: 214.50 – 215.00 Internal Resistance: 212.50 – 213.20 Range Support: 210.00 – 209.50 Bearish Target (Demand): 208.00 – 207.20 📊 Momentum Insight Histogram momentum shows weak bullish strength Bearish pressure increases on rallies Confirms sell-side dominance from higher prices 🔮 Outlook & Trade Idea A potential fake breakout toward 214.00–215.00 could act as a final liquidity grab. If price rejects this zone, a strong impulsive drop toward 208.00 demand is highly probable, aligning with smart money distribution.
Short
by XAU_CAPITAL
Solana Price Action | Fair Value Gap PerspectiveThis chart highlights price action behavior using liquidity and Fair Value Gap (FVG) concepts for educational purposes. Price previously reacted from a higher price imbalance zone, where selling pressure increased, leading to a strong downward displacement. Such moves often leave inefficiencies (FVGs) in the market, which can later act as reaction areas. Following the decline, price consolidated and moved back upward into a short-term range, forming equal highs. These areas are commonly observed as liquidity zones, where price may seek resting orders before choosing direction. The current structure shows price moving within a broader range, with both upside and downside liquidity pools still present. The projected path on the chart illustrates a possible scenario, not a prediction. Markets may seek liquidity above recent highs before reacting toward lower demand areas, but price can always invalidate any technical idea. This analysis is focused on understanding market behavior, not forecasting outcomes. Traders are encouraged to combine this view with their own risk management, timeframe alignment, and confirmation. 🧠 Concepts Used (Educational) Liquidity zones Fair Value Gaps (FVG) Range behavior Price imbalance Market reaction areas
CRYPTO:SOLUSDShort
by XAU_CAPITAL
Bitcoin - Outlook for the Upcoming WeeksMarket Overview Bitcoin is currently trading under clear higher timeframe pressure after a strong reaction from a premium zone. Price tapped into a confluence area of weekly and monthly Fair Value Gaps and showed immediate rejection, confirming that sellers are active at these levels. This reaction shifts the broader outlook from neutral to bearish for the coming weeks, as price failed to accept above higher timeframe imbalance. Higher Timeframe Context and FVG Rejection The most important development is the clean rejection inside the overlapping weekly and monthly FVG. This zone acted as a high probability area for distribution, and the response validates it as a strong supply region. The rejection was decisive, with displacement to the downside, signaling that higher timeframe participants are likely defending this area and looking for lower prices. Bearish CISD Formation Following the rejection, price formed a bearish CISD, confirming that the move was not just a reaction but a structural shift. The CISD came after the liquidity interaction, aligning well with proper ICT sequencing. This adds confluence to the bearish case and suggests that the market is now in a sell side delivery phase rather than a corrective pullback. Downside Targets and Liquidity Objectives With structure now bearish, the primary expectation is continuation toward Target 1, which aligns with a key liquidity area below current price. If price accepts below this level, continuation toward Target 2 becomes likely, targeting deeper weekly liquidity and a strong demand zone that previously supported price. These areas are logical objectives for the current bearish leg. Invalidation and Alternative Scenario The bearish structure remains valid as long as price stays below the rejected weekly and monthly FVG zone. Any sustained acceptance back into and above that area would weaken the bearish narrative and signal potential range behavior instead. Until that happens, downside continuation remains the higher probability scenario. Conclusion Bitcoin rejected a major weekly and monthly FVG, formed a bearish CISD, and is now structurally aligned for further downside. The focus remains on Target 1 first, with Target 2 as a continuation objective if sell side momentum persists. Overall structure supports a bearish outlook for the upcoming weeks. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
55
GBP/AUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table speaks clearly: there is a -6 differential, indicating a Bearish (Moderate) bias that we cannot ignore. Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: GBP at 3.75% matches the Fed, while AUD at 3.6% remains attractive after a recent hike. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: GBP is in Expansion (Goldilocks), but AUD is in Reflation with accelerating inflation. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +2 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: BoE is in an easing cycle with a December cut (dovish), while RBA remains hawkish after a +25bp hike. Score GBP: -1 Score AUD: +1 🎈 Inflation: Explanation: Both remain above target, maintaining hawkish pressure on both central banks. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +1 📈 Growth/GDP: Explanation: Moderate growth for GBP (1.3%) vs. more robust but potentially unsustainable growth for AUD (2.3%). Score GBP: 0 Score AUD: 0 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Current market appetite is neutral with no specific bias. Score GBP: 0 Score AUD: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: GBP shows bearish positioning building, while AUD sees strong long acceleration. Score GBP: -1 Score AUD: +2 🗞️ News Bonus: Explanation: No relevant economic surprises in the last 24h for either currency. Score GBP: 0 Score AUD: 0 Currency Score Summary: Total Score GBP: +1 (Neutral/Weak) Total Score AUD: +7 (Strong) Synthesis: GBP (Weak, Score +1): Under pressure due to the BoE easing cycle and bearish COT positioning. AUD (Strong, Score +7): Very strong following a hawkish RBA hike and accelerating long positions in the COT report. Conclusion: With this scenario, we are only looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 1h | Pair: GBP/AUD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie: 🚀 Continuation Rate (64.9%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal. 🔥 Streak (2): We are at the 2nd consecutive impulse. It's a young trend, so there is plenty of room for extension before reaching extreme exhaustion levels. 🔄 Retest (84.6%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 84.6% of the time. This gives us high confidence in our entry zone. 💥 BOS/Ret Rate (60.2%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS. 🎯 Extension Rate (1.72x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.72 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit. 3. Execution Plan on Chart Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss: Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 1h (Red Band) at the equilibrium (0.5) level, and the stop loss a few pips above the zone. Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.72x relative to the pullback leg. Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 1.96135 Stop Loss: 1.96617 Take Profit: 1.92990 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Short
by MBARRECA