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ES (SPX) Weekly: Levels & Setups - Sep 8-12, 2025Price is camped under a higher-timeframe supply/“weak-high” band. Trend remains constructive on the Weekly/Daily, but 4H/1H are coiling beneath resistance. I’m neutral into mid-week inflation data and will only engage on clean acceptance above the prior-high band or a rejection back into range. Event stance: Two inflation releases hit 08:30 ET mid-week. I’ll be flat into the prints and wait for the first qualifying 15-minute close before arming anything Key ES zones I’m trading around 6530–6545 — HTF supply / weak-high packet (primary take-profit for longs; fade candidate on rejection) 6518 — Breakout line (PMH/PWH band) 6500 — Round-number pivot 6460 ±2 — 1H equilibrium / prior LL shelf 6408–6415 — 4H HVN / equilibrium shelf 6360–6375 — 4H demand (strong-low) Setup 1 — Breakout-Acceptance LONG Trigger: 15m close > 6518, then two 5m bodies hold above. Entry: 6520.5–6523.0 on the retest or break of bar-2 high. Stop: tighter of (i) below the 15m trigger candle low, or (ii) below the last confirmed 5m swing; cap ≤ 6–8 pts. • If neither option fits ≤ 8 pts from your fill, pass and wait for a cleaner micro HL. TP1 (dynamic): first hard band (e.g., any workable print inside 6530–6545) that yields ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill (front-run 0.25–0.5 pt if 2.5R is tight). TP2/TP3: 6550, then 6570; trail by 15m/30m closes. • Disqualifiers: any 5m body back ≤ 6518 before TP1; visible liquidity wall ≤ 5 pts beyond trigger; news window. Setup 2 — SRR Rejection SHORT (Sweep → Recapture → Reversal) Trigger: Sweep 6518–6530, fail, then 15m bearish close < 6518. Entry: 6515.0–6518.0 on the retest from below. Stop: tighter of (i) above the 15m trigger candle high, or (ii) above the last confirmed 5m LH; cap ≤ 6–8 pts. • I f the correct structural stop is > 8 pts from your fill, skip until a micro LH tightens risk. TP1 (dynamic): first hard band below that gives ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill—usually 6500; if 2.5R isn’t met to 6500, promote to 6482, then 6460. TP2/TP3: 6482, then 6460 (extend toward 6410 if momentum). • Disqualifiers: no 15m bearish confirmation; any 5m body ≥ 6518–6522 after entry (use your exact line); news window.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
5
ES (S&P500) - Analyses - Breakout or Breakdown Plan (Sep 9)S&P 500 E-mini (ES) keeps ranging inside 6,490–6,505, with repeated taps of 6,516 above and 6,490–6,496 below. Tomorrow I’m stalking a box resolution during the AM session, then a second chance in the PM window. Key Zones Resistance: 6,505–6,516 (NYPM/NYAM lid). Above it: 6,541.25 (PDH) → 6,547.75 (IBH). Support: 6,495–6,490 (NYAM/NYPM floor). Below it: 6,481.0 → 6,471.5 (hard pools). Range to watch: 6,490–6,505 (decision box). Game Plan (structure-first) LONG (breakout-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close > 6,505–6,516. 2. Retest 6,501–6,503 (OB/FVG/OTE) and hold. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,541.25, TP2 6,547.75, TP3 6,555+. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body back ≤ 6,500 after breakout. SHORT (breakdown-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close < ~6,496. 2. Retest 6,498–6,500 (failed reclaim) and roll. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,481.0, TP2 6,471.5, TP3 6,464–6,465. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body ≥ 6,500 after fill. Timing windows Primary: 09:30–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET (trade management only in between). We are currently consolidating below 6,516, with a clear liquidity ladder leading to PDH 6,541.25 if the movement is accepted. If it fails, we have stacked support levels around 6,481 and 6,471 that typically attract price action once 6,496 breaks down. Please confirm with ES and NQ: we want both indices to move in sync (no bearish signs of market tension on longs, and no bullish signs of market tension on shorts). What could affect ES tomorrow? NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug): 6:00 AM ET. API crude inventories (for CL correlation): Tuesday around 4:30 PM ET. (For Wednesday's context: EIA petroleum report at 10:30 AM ET.)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
NZDJPY| HTF Bearish Structure + Buy - Side Liquidity in PlayOn the 4H timeframe, structure is clearly bearish, with price moving within a defined trench range anchored at a higher timeframe order block (HTF OB). Shifting to the mid timeframe, we see strong volume momentum to the downside, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, price still has business above — specifically, buy-side liquidity resting over prior highs and unmitigated blocks. The expectation: • 📌 Price to reach upward and sweep buy-side liquidity. • 📌 Mitigate OBs sitting above current price action. • 📌 From there, we’ll shift focus to lower timeframe confirmations for refined entries in alignment with the larger bearish structure. Mindset Note: Patience is power. Until mitigation and confirmation align, we remain calm, let smart money finish its play, and position ourselves only when the path is clear.
Short
by Juicemannn
Bitcoin | HTF Bullish Breaker + Mid TF Anchor ZoneOn the higher timeframe (HTF), Bitcoin shows a strong bullish Break of Structure (BoS) to the upside, leaving price at new highs. From there, we’ve seen a major pullback, which shifted focus down to the mid timeframe (MTF) for continuation clues. Price dipped deeply into a refined higher timeframe anchor order block, highlighted in purple, giving a clean liquidity sweep and reaction. This tells us smart money has acknowledged the zone. At this stage, we remain patient: • ✅ Waiting for a mid timeframe CHoCH to confirm directional intent. • ✅ Once the MTF confirms, we’ll step down to the lower timeframe (LTF) for continuation setups and precision confirmations. • ⚠️ Until then, discipline is key — let smart money guide price where it needs to go. Mindset Note: Patience pays. The market is bullish, but confirmation comes in layers. Trust the process, not impulse.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
1:18RR long position goldi had a successful scalp and executed good entries on the fvg and trend liquidity on gold during asians session today but with the scalp the idea was to secure profits at the PDH/ATH while i wait for NY / London session to see if gold will continue to rise like a rocket. the whole idea here is the long position the bigger picture because with the technical analyses my anticipation has always been to see gold rising till infinity to start with $3500 and $3700. do you think gold prices will increases to the final key levels?
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by trader24hh7
Gold Futures Short Into Asia 9/7/25Based on the current Fair Value Gap (FVG), Order Block (OB), and the liquidity resting below, I anticipate gold will retrace toward the Point of Control (POC) identified on the volume profile. This would provide an ideal setup for short-term selling opportunities during tonight’s PM session. My expectation is for price to open lower, push into the 3658 range, and present a bearish entry signal. From there, I’ll be targeting shorts toward the equilibrium of the FVG around 3619, which also aligns closely with previous session highs and lows—adding confluence to the setup.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by jasonrraynor
H1 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – Full Map (Sep 8–12, 2025)Hello traders, gold trades around 3585–3600. The H1 chart now gives us the full structural map: all supply levels stacked above price, and all demand levels layered below. This is the tactical roadmap for the week 👇 🔑 H1 Structural Supply Zones (Upside Resistance) Immediate Supply (3618–3628) H1 OB + bearish FVG Liquidity above Friday’s wick Fib 127% extension Primary Supply (3668–3678) Refined H4 supply Fib 161.8% extension Gap inefficiency Extended Supply (3725–3735) Next liquidity pocket H1 imbalance zone inside rally Target only if CPI fuels expansion Extreme Supply (3790–3805) HTF fib 200% extension Last clean H1 OB before weekly resistance cluster 🔑 H1 Structural Demand Zones (Downside Support) Immediate Demand (3562–3552) H1 OB + EMA21 Fib 61.8% retracement Gap-fill from breakout Primary Demand (3528–3515) OB + EMA50 support Unfilled FVG Fib 78.6% retracement Secondary Demand (3488–3475) Previous accumulation base Micro OB + gap imbalance Aligned with EMA100 Deep Demand (3445–3430) Institutional block Strong HTF liquidity pool Only tested on aggressive USD rally 📌 Scenarios Bullish Path 🟢 Hold Immediate Demand (3562–3552) → retest 3618–3628. Break above this → continuation toward 3668–3678. If macro stays supportive, 3725–3735 may unlock later. Bearish Path 🔴 Rejection at 3618–3628 sends gold back to 3562–3552. Losing this opens 3528–3515, then deeper 3488–3475. Strong CPI/PPI could flush into 3445–3430. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan The full H1 map frames this week clearly: Supplies stacked: 3618–3628 → 3668–3678 → 3725–3735 → 3790–3805. Demands layered: 3562–3552 → 3528–3515 → 3488–3475 → 3445–3430. Between these zones is the battlefield — trade reactions, not guesses. Let PA confirm (BOS, rejection, slowdown) before execution. ✨ Which zone do you expect to trigger first — the Immediate Supply 3628 or the Immediate Demand 3552? Drop your view 👇,please 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for precision weekly maps 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
H4 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – September 8–12, 2025Hello traders, gold ended last week at 3585–3600, breaking into fresh highs. The H4 chart now sets the battlefield for this week: we refine the institutional zones into clear swing areas where liquidity and reactions are most likely. With PPI (Sep 10) and CPI (Sep 11) ahead, these zones will shape the flow 👇 🔸 H4 Structure & Trend Trend: Strong bullish → higher highs and higher lows continue. EMAs (5/21/50/100/200) → perfectly aligned, EMA21 supports short-term structure. RSI: Near 68, showing momentum strength but stretched into premium levels. Bias: Bullish, but with room for correction into lower demand zones. 🔑 H4 Structural Zones Upside Supply / Resistance 3615–3635 → First H4 supply, immediate test zone above 3600. 3665–3685 → Main H4 supply of the week, strong resistance cluster. 3735–3755 → Extended upside supply, only unlocked if CPI/PPI favor gold. Downside Demand / Support 3565–3545 → Nearest H4 demand, aligned with EMA21. 3525–3505 → Secondary demand, key support base if 3550 fails. 3465–3445 → Deeper H4 demand, liquidity zone and EMA100 alignment. 📌 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Path 🟢 If gold holds above 3565–3545, buyers can defend and attack higher levels. Break above 3615–3635 unlocks 3665–3685. Macro momentum (weak CPI/PPI) could drive extension into 3735–3755. Bearish Path 🔴 Rejection at 3615–3635 may drag gold back into 3565–3545. Losing this zone opens 3525–3505. If macro favors USD, deeper test into 3465–3445 becomes possible. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan The H4 map with wide zones gives clarity for the week: 3565–3545 → key demand lifeline. 3615–3635 → immediate ceiling. 3665–3685 → decisive zone for continuation or reversal. Expect sideways early in the week, then breakout volatility around Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI. ✨ Will bulls break 3615–3635 early, or do we dip into 3545–3525 first? Share your thoughts , 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for weekly precision outlooks 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
GBP/USD | 4H Bullet Structure Setup Pair: GBP/USD Bias: Bullish continuation HTF (4H): • Bullet-strong structure mapped. • Strong intent confirmed — price cleared sell-side liquidity and formed higher-high structure. • Order block / demand zone refined to perfection. MTF (30M/1H): • Price giving lower-high breach after prior low-high was taken. • Waiting for sell-side liquidity sweep and mitigation of 30M internal framework OB. • Sweep confirmed — clean, professional setup. LTF (5M/15M): • Monitor for CHoCH confirmation. • Wait for price to dip into your OB. • Upon mitigation, enter longs targeting: • TP1: 5M highs (quick leg) • TP2: 30M highs (extended leg, depending on market delivery) Mindset Note: • Don’t chase — let smart money show the way first. • High-probability continuation setups are about patience, structure, and alignment across timeframes.
Long
by Juicemannn
CHF/JPY| Switch-In Continuation Pair: CHF/JPY Bias: Bullish continuation HTF (4H+): • Bullet-strong uptrend confirmed. • Market structure and momentum clearly support continuation. MTF (30M/1H): • Waiting for sell-side liquidity sweep to trigger and mitigation of the overview/refined zone below prior admin OBs. • Once liquidity is cleared and mitigation occurs, setup becomes primed for continuation. LTF (5M/15M): • Lower timeframe structure already forming within the leg. • Price has been “CHoCHed” and showing continuation pressure. • Entries will be taken post-mitigation of OB, aligned with higher timeframe bias. • Patience is key — waiting for the courtyard to be slashed and smart money to lead the move. Targets: • TP1: Next clean 5M highs as price confirms continuation. • TP2: Higher timeframe liquidity zones above recent highs. Mindset Note: • Don’t chase the leg. Wait for liquidity to be swept and OB mitigation confirmed. Let the market lead before committing — this is how high-probability continuation trades are taken.
Long
by Juicemannn
US30| Pullback Continuation SetupPair/Instrument: US30 (Dow Jones) Bias: Bullish overall HTF (4H+): • Price is in a strong uptrend. • Breaking major highs with strong volume confirming momentum. • Candles printing with conviction — clear bullish control. MTF (30M/1H): • Waiting for sell-side liquidity sweep to trigger and respect internal framework OBs. • Once mitigation occurs, the pullback will be primed for continuation. LTF (5M/15M): • Monitor for clean CHoCH + OB entry confirmations aligned with higher-timeframe bias. • Entries anticipate continuation leg without chasing. Targets: • TP1: ~5.5 points / units from entry (quick partial target based on immediate LTF highs). • TP2: ~30.5 points / units from entry (extended target based on HTF liquidity and swing). Mindset Note: • Wait for structured pullback and mitigation. Patience > impulse. • Let the market sweep liquidity and set up your OBs before committing — the high-probability continuation will follow naturally.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Juicemannn
GOLD | Waiting for PullbackPair: XAUUSD Bias: Bullish overall HTF (4H): Market extended; expecting corrective pullback. MTF (30M): Inducement forming into $3,500–$3,465 demand zone. LTF (5M): Look for CHoCH + OB entry confirmation inside that zone. Targets: 1. TP1: Next clean 5M highs that form if price holds — first leg confirmation. 2. TP2: Extended leg to $3,600–$3,640+ — higher-timeframe liquidity zone. Mindset Note: Don’t chase highs. Let the market collect liquidity in the pullback zone, confirm via 5M structure, then step in. Patience > impulse.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Juicemannn
Mitigation: Where Smart Money Reloads“The first touch after a shift is often the cleanest. But only if you know where to wait.” After a ChoCH or Break of Structure , price often returns to the origin of the move. This return is called Mitigation — where big players close remaining positions and open new ones in the direction of the fresh trend. Why Mitigation Matters Most traders jump in immediately after a BoS, afraid of missing the move. But professional traders understand something crucial: The market almost always comes back. Mitigation is where the market “refuels” before continuing. It offers: Smaller stop losses (tighter risk) Clear invalidation points Cleaner entries with better risk-reward How to Spot Mitigation Zones Find the last opposing candle before the strong move (bearish candle before a bullish rally, bullish candle before a sell-off). Mark its open–close range as your mitigation block. Wait for price to return to this area — patience is key. Drop to a lower timeframe (M15 or M1) and wait for confirmation (ChoCH/BOS) before entry. Practical Example (Gold) Suppose Gold breaks structure upward (BoS). Instead of buying the breakout, look left to locate the last bearish candle before that strong rally. Price often revisits this candle’s range. When it does, observe lower timeframe structure: If it holds, that’s your entry — right where smart money is filling orders. This is why the first pullback after a BoS is often the cleanest trade — it’s not random. It’s the market completing unfinished business. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror Have you seen this play out on your own charts? Share your thoughts — where did price last revisit a zone before making a big move?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ChartIsMirror
EURUSD - Published Idea (Bullish Bias) Bias: Bullish HTF (4H Overview): Price is showing strong bullish intent. Structure remains to the upside, and a key order block has already been mitigated with liquidity swept from the courtyard. MTF / Internal Framework: A CHoCH has confirmed bullish momentum, but price is currently reacting at a supply area. This signals that sellers may look to bring price down into our deeper point of interest — the internal framework OB that sits beneath courtyard liquidity. Plan: • Wait for sell-side liquidity to be taken. • Look for deep mitigation into the marked OB, where multiple bodies fill the zone. • From there, we anticipate lower timeframe CHoCH confirmation to align with longs. Current Focus: Price is testing supply near major highs, with liquidity clustered above. This indicates potential short-term bearish delivery before the next bullish continuation. Targets: Liquidity above the supply area and HTF highs once demand confirms. Mindset Note: Patience. Let smart money lead the way — we react when liquidity clears, not before.
Long
by Juicemannn
1
EURGBP - Bullish Flow form 30M OBBias: Bullish HTF (4H Overview): Strong bullish structure overall, with layered minor structure mapping within the flow supporting continuation. MTF (30M Zone): Price mitigated a 30M order block and respected the demand zone perfectly, confirming buyers in control. LTF (Confirmation): A CHoCH formed, then another CHoCH confirmed strength. Price is now riding the 30M leg as planned. Entry Plan: Look for pullback opportunities aligning with demand to join the bullish leg. Targets: Next liquidity pools and highs in alignment with 30M structure. Mindset Note: Ride the leg, don’t chase—let price return to you.
Long
by Juicemannn
2
NASDAQ - Bullish Flow into Highs Bias: Bullish HTF (4H Overview): From the bird’s-eye view, structure remains bullish. Liquidity is being targeted across the 30M–4H multi-timeframe play, with strong bullish intent confirmed by volume printing to the upside. LTF (30M / 5M Confirmation): A proper CHoCH has been established. Once the trend shift occurs, we wait for the pullback before attending longs. Entry Plan: Look for entry after the courtyard liquidity is collected and demand is mitigated (slash zone). Targets: Initial: 5M highs Extended: 30M highs, depending on market delivery. Mindset Note: Patience—let liquidity do its job before striking.
IG:NASDAQLong
by Juicemannn
XRP — $2.5 Liquidity Zone Could Trigger the Next RallyAfter hitting a new all-time high (ATH) on 18th July, XRP failed to hold the previous ATH ($3.40) as support. This breakdown led to a –25% drop, finding support at the 0.5 Fib retracement of the $1.90 → $3.66 move, followed by a solid +24% bounce back to the pATH (200B MC at $3.36) and 0.702 Fib retracement → an ideal short opportunity. Now XRP has been trending in a descending triangle pattern for 50 days, with $3 acting as the key resistance. This level is the Point of Control (POC) of the last 75-day trading range, adding weight to its importance. On top of that, the anchored VWAP (~$3.035) is currently reinforcing $3 as additional resistance. 🧩 Confluence Support Zone ($2.665–$2.45) Liquidity cluster: many stop-losses reside here Anchored VWAP (support): ~$2.62 Yearly anchored VWAP: $2.59 → strong support level Golden Pocket (0.618–0.666): $2.5777–$2.4936 21 EMA ($2.665) / 21 SMA ($2.576) (weekly): dynamic HTF support 233 EMA ($2.44) / 233 SMA ($2.53) (daily): strong moving average cluster Market Cap Support: $2.52 aligns with the $150B level 1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension: $2.4498 → aligning perfectly with the $2.5 support zone as a reversal point This creates a high-probability long entry zone between $2.665–$2.45, with multiple overlapping technical factors. 🟢 Long Trade Setup Entry Zone: $2.665–$2.45 Stop-Loss: Below $2.25 for now, to be adjusted once price action confirms a reversal. Potential Gain: up to +60% depending on execution Technical Insight After 50 days of correction, XRP is approaching a major liquidity and confluence zone. The golden pocket, VWAP, EMA/SMA clusters, market cap support, and 1.0 Fib extension all stack together at around $2.5, making it a powerful reversal point. Meanwhile, $3 remains the key resistance, reinforced by the POC of the last 75-day range and the anchored VWAP (~$3.035). Bulls must reclaim this level to confirm bullish continuation. Key Levels to Watch Support: $2.665–$2.45 (reversal zone) Resistance: $3.00 🔍 Indicators used Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones → to identify support and resistance zones such as the weekly 21 EMA/SMA. ➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Long
by SiDec
15
“Bitcoin Price Action: Liquidity Grab Fuels Next Bullish Impulse“Bitcoin Price Action: Liquidity Grab Fuels Next Bullish Impulse 📈” Hello Traders & Investors, Let’s take a closer look at BTCUSD from both a structural and liquidity perspective. 🔹 Market Structure The chart shows that after a strong bullish leg into mid-August, BTCUSD faced heavy rejection from the 120,000 – 123,000 resistance zone, which remains the most important supply area on the chart. This rejection triggered a clear Break of Structure (BOS), leading to a correction and liquidity grab. Recently, price created a liquidity sweep in the 108,000 – 110,000 region, trapping late sellers and collecting orders from beneath previous lows. Following that, BTCUSD reclaimed the 111,000 – 112,000 zone, confirming it as new support. 🔹 Liquidity & Smart Money Behavior The downside sweep indicates accumulation, where smart money entered long positions. Liquidity resting above current levels (towards 116,000 → 120,000) is now the most likely target for price. The previous liquidity channel to the downside has been fully absorbed, shifting bias toward bullish continuation. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch Support: 111,000 – 112,000 (liquidity sweep + reclaimed support). Resistance: 120,000 – 123,000 (major supply and reaction zone). 🔹 Projection As long as BTCUSD holds above 111,000, my bias remains bullish. The next objective lies at the 120,000 zone, which aligns with untested supply and prior rejection levels. However, traders should be prepared for a reaction or short-term retracement once this area is tested. ✅ Conclusion: BTCUSD has shown strength after sweeping liquidity from the downside. The structure now supports a bullish push toward 120,000, provided 111,000 support continues to hold. This remains a critical level for validation of further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mentor_Michael03
BTC: 112,681 in sight, 115.3k if breakout holds__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC bounced back above the weekly pivot 111,965 after a dip below 110k and is hovering near 112.2k, still trapped inside the 104k–116k corridor. Short-term momentum is positive but capped by a 4H/6H “Pivot High.” Momentum: Bullish 📈 in the short term within a broader range; buyers defend 111,965 but meet supply at 112,681. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/6H → 1D): 112,681 (240 PH), 115,300 (720 PH), 124,277 (D PH, distant extension). - Supports (4H → 1D): 111,965 (W PH turned support), 109,905 (240 PL), 107,300 (cluster PL). Volumes: Normal on HTF; notable 1H spike during the recent push. Multi-timeframe signals: ST (15m–1H) bullish; mid TF (2H–6H) still corrective; HTF (12H–1D) constructive → bias improves if 112,681 flips to support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (moderate risk-off) — it contradicts the intraday bounce and can cap extensions without a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is a “range with a bullish lean”: trade conditional entries, confirm breakouts, and keep stops tight. Global bias: Neutral Buy with key invalidation below 109,900 (loss of the 240 PL base). Opportunities: - Continuation long: break & retest of 112,681 to target 114.0k then 115.3k. - Defensive long: clean pullback holding 111,965 (1H higher low) to re-test 112,681. - Tactical short: clear rejection at 112.68–113.0k (bearish 4H candle) to 112.0k then 111.0k/109.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: - 4H–12H close below 111,965 reopens 110k then 109.9k. - A reclaim above 115,300 invalidates the mid‑TF bearish structure and unlocks 120–124k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: September remains “live”; a cut is increasingly priced — supportive for risk if confirmed. - NFP/Unemployment: a soft print would fuel risk-on and breakout follow‑throughs. - Crypto liquidity: fresh $2B USDT mint + cross‑chain reallocations — deeper books if 112,681 breaks. Action plan: - Long (break & retest 112,681): Entry 112.70–112.85k / Stop <111.90k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 115.3k, TP3 120.0k / R:R ~1.8R to 3R. - Short (rejection 112.68–113.0k): Entry 112.7–112.9k / Stop >113.1k / TP1 112.0k, TP2 111.0k, TP3 109.9k / R:R ~1.2R to 2.5R. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ This is a “range‑recovery” alignment: ST drives, mid TFs resist, HTFs remain supportive. 1D/12H: Constructive above 111,965; a clean move through 112,681 sets up a test of 115,300 (major range ceiling). 6H/4H/2H: Still printing a “lower high” under 115.3k; 112,681 is the rotation hinge — rejections = 112.0k/111,965 retests. 1H/30m/15m: Bullish momentum with elevated 1H volumes; needs solid close/retest above 112,681 to avoid a fakeout. Key divergences/confluences: ST strength + HTF support vs Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE and mid‑TF corrective tone → prioritize confirmed flips at 112,681. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is leaning toward monetary easing while stablecoin liquidity expands — a supportive backdrop if technical levels confirm. Macro events: Fed keeps September “live” with a cut increasingly priced; a soft NFP would add risk-on fuel; oil softens and gold appetite stays firm — near‑term inflation pressure eases. Bitcoin analysis: Price ~111.5–112k with short‑squeeze risk if momentum continues; BTC spot ETF flows remain flat vs improving ETH — implying measured BTC spot demand but reactive to technical breaks. On-chain data: +$2B USDT minted and cross‑chain shifts → deeper market depth; URPD/accumulation in 108–116k matches the range; neutral funding = fragile momentum. Expected impact: A dovish follow‑through (cut pricing + soft jobs) supports the “Neutral Buy” toward 115.3k; risk‑off shocks would pressure 111,965/109,9k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Range market with a recovery bias as long as 111,965 holds and 112,681 turns into support. - Overall trend: short‑term bullish/neutral inside the 104k–116k range. - Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112,681 targeting 115.3k. - One key macro factor: growing odds of a September Fed cut boost risk appetite. Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation, and respect stops. ⚠️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin in the decisionBitcoin opened bearish today, and this outlook remains as long as we trade below 110,900. At 110,300 we still have a naked POC from September 2nd, which should act as support. Since this level often acts like a magnet, I expect we might revisit it. It is important that this level holds – otherwise, a quick move down toward 108,600 could follow, which I see as the next real support. If we somehow manage to reclaim 112,000, the picture flips back to bullish. In that case, a test of the naked POC at 113,000 would be the target, where I expect strong rejection.
by Rayo_mxp