Extreme greed - LINK weekly update August 12 - 18thFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, Chainlink is currently in Minor degree Wave 5 within Intermediate degree Wave 3. On a broader scale, LINK has completed a 1–2 structure at both the Primary and Intermediate degrees, similar to many other altcoins I have analysed recently, and is now advancing as part of Cycle degree Wave 1.
Liquidity positioning shows a substantial build-up below current price. The recent impulsive rally was largely driven by a short squeeze, as many traders opened short positions during Wave 4 and were subsequently liquidated. The order book also shows heavy order clusters above price, aligning closely with the key Fibonacci extension levels.
Funding rates, however, paint a more cautionary picture. They are currently at extremely high positive levels, while open interest has spiked sharply — suggesting that this leg higher is standing on shaky ground. Such conditions often precede volatility spikes or corrective pullbacks. Additionally, momentum indicators like the RSI are showing overbought conditions.
Given the current structure and liquidity alignment, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension remains my preferred target for the completion of this Minor Wave 5, as it coincides with a significant concentration of orders and fits the overall Elliott Wave projection. That said, the combination of overheated funding rates, elevated open interest, and extreme momentum readings warrants high caution for traders.
As always — do your own research, and trade safe.
