EUR/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so EUR-CHF is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 0.934.
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EURBGP Sell this Leg and buy at the bottom.Last time we took a look a the EURGBP pair (July 11, see chart below), we gave a buy signal inside the Channel Up, which quickly hit our 0.87400 Target:
This time the price has found itself on a decline, the latest Bearish Leg of the Channel Up. The previous two declined by -2.75% before bottoming and reversing. The 1D RSI Higher Lows can be an additional indicator as to where the Low can be priced.
We expect the pair to reach at least 0.85500 before starting the new Bullish Leg, which we believe will extend all the way near the top (1.0 Fibonacci) of the Channel Up. Our Target will be 0.8900.
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GOLD Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,396.89.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,377.33 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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AUDUSD Is Going Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.652.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.649 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURJPY Will Fall! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 171.432.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 170.376 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDJPY Tests 5-Month TrendlineJapan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, cancelled a visit to Washington at the last minute, stalling talks over a $550 billion investment package Tokyo had proposed in exchange for tariff relief.
President Trump framed the offer as “our money to invest,” asserting that the US would retain 90% of the profits, while Japanese officials clarified that any investments must also benefit Japan.
However, USDJPY continues to maintain a bullish/neutral structure, trading above a 5-month trendline that connects consecutive higher lows from the 1.3980 trough in April 2025. The pair is now hovering near critical support around 147.
If the price breaks below 147, losses may extend toward 146.30 and 146.00, with potential for further downside toward 145.00, 144.00, and 142.70 if bearish momentum builds.
On the upside, holding above 148.70 would shift focus toward 149.70, 150.70, and 151.70, continuing the bullish trajectory.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
GBPCHF Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPCHF.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.081.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.088 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GOLD Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 3,338.21.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,390.18 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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What Is Symmetrical Distribution, and How Do Traders Use It?What Is Symmetrical Distribution, and How Do Traders Use It?
Symmetrical distribution is a key concept in market analysis, helping traders assess price behaviour and volatility. When price movements are evenly distributed around a central point, it can provide insights into potential market trends. This article explores what symmetrical distribution is, how it compares to other price patterns, and how traders use it in strategies like mean reversion to refine their market approach.
What Is a Symmetric Distribution?
The symmetric distribution definition states that data points are evenly spread around a mean, meaning price movements exhibit balance over time. In simple terms, if price movements form a symmetrical shape when plotted on a chart, it suggests that past price behaviour has been balanced, with roughly equal deviations on either side of the average. This balance is supposed to help traders analyse price trends and volatility.
One of the most well-known symmetrical distribution examples is the normal distribution, often visualised as a bell curve. In markets, this means prices are more likely to cluster around the average and become less frequent as you move further away. For example, if a stock has a mean daily return of 0.5%, most days are believed to see returns close to that figure, while extreme price moves—both positive and negative—will be much rarer.
Symmetrical distribution plays a key role in statistical analysis and quantitative trading. It helps traders assess the probability of certain price movements occurring, particularly when using models that rely on historical data.
How Traders Use Symmetrical Distribution in Market Analysis
Traders use symmetrical distribution to analyse price behaviour, identify potential trading opportunities, and refine their strategies. When price movements are evenly distributed around a central point, it provides a structured way to assess market conditions. This concept is particularly useful in mean reversion strategies.
Mean Reversion Strategies
Symmetrical distribution suggests that prices tend to fluctuate around an average, making mean reversion a widely used approach. Traders applying this strategy assume that when an asset moves significantly away from its mean, it is likely to return over time. Bollinger Bands and moving averages are commonly used to measure price deviations and identify potential turning points. This is particularly relevant in markets with balanced volatility, where extreme price moves are less frequent.
Identifying Market Conditions
Analysing whether a market follows a symmetrical distribution can help traders determine which strategies might be effective. In markets where price movements are balanced, traders may focus on range-bound approaches. In contrast, when distributions become skewed, momentum and trend-following strategies might be more suitable. Recognising these shifts allows traders to adapt their methods to changing market conditions.
How to Identify a Symmetrical Distribution
Identifying a symmetrical distribution in market data involves analysing price behaviour to determine whether movements are evenly spread around a central value. While markets don’t always follow perfect symmetry, traders use statistical tools and visual techniques to assess whether a price distribution aligns with this pattern.
Histogram Analysis
A histogram is one of the simplest ways to check for symmetry in price movements. By plotting historical returns or price changes on a frequency chart, traders can see whether data points cluster evenly around the mean. If the left and right sides of the distribution mirror each other, the market may be exhibiting a symmetrical pattern.
Histograms can also reveal uniform distributions, where all values occur with equal probability, forming a flat graph rather than a bell curve. A symmetric and uniform graph can help distinguish between these two patterns—while a uniform distribution shows no central clustering, a symmetric distribution forms a peak around the mean. Recognising whether a market follows a symmetric or uniform structure helps traders determine which statistical tools are most relevant for analysis.
Statistical Measures: Mean and Standard Deviation
Symmetrical distributions tend to have a mean (average) return that sits at the centre of price movements, with standard deviations determining how far prices typically move from that mean. If price fluctuations are evenly distributed around the mean, it suggests a balanced market where extreme moves are less common.
Skewness and Kurtosis
Two key statistical measures help traders confirm symmetry:
- Skewness quantifies how unevenly data points are distributed around the mean. A value close to zero suggests a symmetrical distribution, while a positive or negative skew indicates an imbalance.
- Kurtosis measures how frequently extreme price movements occur. A symmetrical, normally distributed market typically has a kurtosis value near three.
Visualising with Moving Averages
When plotted on a chart, symmetrical price behaviour often aligns with a stable moving average, where price deviations are relatively even on both sides. In contrast, a market with consistent upward or downward bias may show clear asymmetry.
Symmetrical Distribution vs. Other Market Distributions
However, markets don’t always move in a balanced way. While symmetrical distribution means price movements are evenly spread around a central point, real-world trading often shows skewed distributions, where prices are more likely to move in one direction than the other. Understanding the difference is key to assessing market behaviour.
A positively skewed distribution means there are more small downward price moves, but the occasional sharp rally pushes the average return higher. This often happens in growth stocks or high-volatility assets, where losses are frequent but gains can be explosive. On the other hand, a negatively skewed distribution occurs when prices drift upwards gradually but occasionally experience sudden drops. This is common in carry trades, where traders potentially earn small returns over time but risk significant losses during market shocks.
Skewed distributions challenge the assumption that markets follow normal distribution patterns. For example, many risk models assume a symmetrical spread of price moves, but in reality, market crashes and parabolic rallies occur far more often than a normal distribution would assume. This is why relying solely on symmetrical models can lead to underestimating risk in extreme conditions.
Traders who recognise whether a market is symmetrical or skewed can adjust their strategies accordingly. In a symmetrical market, mean reversion strategies could be more effective, while in a skewed market, trend-following approaches could perform better.
Symmetrical Distribution in Risk Management
Risk management relies heavily on statistical analysis, and symmetrical distribution plays a key role in estimating potential market movements. When price changes are symmetrically distributed, traders can use probability models to assess how far an asset is likely to move within a given timeframe.
Value at Risk (VaR) and Probability Modelling
One common application is Value at Risk (VaR), which estimates the maximum expected loss over a period based on historical price data. If potential returns follow a symmetrical distribution, traders can calculate the probability of losses exceeding a certain threshold. For example, in a normal distribution, around 95% of price movements fall within two standard deviations of the mean, allowing traders to set potential risk limits accordingly.
Risk-Reward Calculations
A symmetrical distribution also helps traders refine their risk-reward ratios. If price movements are evenly distributed, traders can estimate potential returns relative to potential losses with greater confidence. In markets where symmetry holds, a trader aiming for a 3:1 risk-reward ratio can assume that price fluctuations are balanced enough for this structure to be viable.
Position Sizing and Stop Placement
By understanding the distribution of price movements, traders can potentially improve position sizing. If historical data suggests symmetrical price behaviour, traders may adjust their position sizes based on expected volatility. Similarly, stop-loss levels might be set relative to the standard deviation of past price movements, ensuring that exits are placed within a statistically reasonable range.
Limitations and Challenges
While symmetrical distribution provides a structured way to analyse price movements, real-world markets rarely follow a perfect balance. External factors, market psychology, and liquidity shifts often distort price behaviour, making it important for traders to recognise the limitations of relying solely on symmetrical models.
Market Skew and Imbalances
Many assets, especially stocks and commodities, exhibit skewed distributions due to long-term trends, supply-demand imbalances, or macroeconomic factors. Price movements often lean in one direction rather than forming a perfect bell curve.
Impact of News and Events
Unexpected events—such as central bank decisions, earnings reports, or geopolitical developments—can cause sudden price moves that disrupt symmetrical patterns. These events create fat tails, where extreme moves occur more frequently than a normal distribution would suggest.
Volatility Clustering
Markets tend to experience periods of high and low volatility in clusters, rather than maintaining a steady distribution. Symmetrical models often underestimate the likelihood of extreme price swings, leading to miscalculations in risk assessment.
Liquidity and Order Flow Distortions
Large institutional orders and algorithmic trading can cause short-term price imbalances, breaking the assumption of symmetrical price behaviour. These distortions can lead to misleading statistical signals.
The Bottom Line
Symmetrical distribution provides traders with a structured way to analyse price movements, assess volatility, and refine strategies. While markets don’t always follow perfect symmetry, understanding when and how these patterns appear may support your trading analysis.
FAQ
What Is Symmetrical Distribution?
Symmetrical distribution refers to a data distribution where values are evenly spread around the mean. In financial markets, this means price movements are balanced, with equal-sized fluctuations on both sides of an average value.
What Is an Example of Symmetric Data?
A common symmetrical data example is the normal distribution, where most data points cluster around the mean, and extreme values occur less frequently. In trading, an asset with daily potential returns that are equally distributed above and below the mean exhibits symmetry.
What Is the Difference Between Uniform and Symmetric Distribution?
When comparing uniform vs symmetric distribution, the key difference is that a uniform distribution gives each value an equal probability with no central clustering. A symmetrical distribution can have values clustered around the mean.
What Is the Difference Between Symmetrical Distribution and Normal Distribution?
A normal distribution is a common symmetric distribution example, creating a bell-shaped curve. While all normal distributions are symmetrical, not all symmetrical distributions follow the strict characteristics of a normal distribution.
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GBPAUD: Continued Downward PressureBased on the recent GBPAUD chart, the market shows signs of a short-term downtrend after failing to break through the resistance levels around 2.0820. Currently, the price is testing key support levels, and if it continues to stay below this resistance, a decline towards 2.0670 could occur.
Technical Analysis: GBPAUD is currently trading near the 2.0725 area. The key resistance remains at 2.0820. If the price remains below this level, a downtrend towards 2.0670 is possible. The support levels at 2.0725 and 2.0670 will be crucial to watch for confirming the downward trend.
Market Factors: Strong economic data from the U.S., particularly higher GDP growth and lower-than-expected unemployment claims, have strengthened the USD, negatively impacting GBP. This may continue to put pressure on GBP, causing GBPAUD to decline.
XAUUSD: Short-Term Decline Awaiting a Correction?XAUUSD is currently in a short-term downtrend, and the chart suggests that the price could continue to decrease if resistance levels are not broken. The short-term target is 3,362.30.
Technical Analysis: XAUUSD is trading below the resistance level at 3,403.70. If it remains below this level, the next targets will be 3,362.30.
Fundamental Analysis: Strong economic data from the U.S., particularly the preliminary quarterly GDP, lower-than-expected jobless claims, and a higher-than-expected core PCE index, all support the U.S. dollar. As the USD strengthens, the demand for gold decreases, pushing the price of gold lower.
Trading Strategy: Open a sell order when the price remains below 3,403.70, with targets at 3,362.30. Place a stop-loss above the 3,403.70 resistance level to protect the trade.
With both technical and fundamental factors supporting the bearish trend, XAUUSD may continue its short-term decline.
XAUUSD: 500 Pips Gold Trading Strategy!Hi everyone, what’s your view on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Gold staged a sharp reversal after its earlier decline and climbed to fresh weekly highs above $3,370 on Friday. The move was fueled by a steep drop in US 10-year Treasury yields following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which boosted XAU/USD higher. At the moment, price is consolidating around $3,365.
From a technical perspective, indicators along with the 34 and 89 EMA continue to point to an uptrend. Buying opportunities could arise if price retests support levels or breaks above $3,380. Should Fibonacci levels at 0.5 and 0.618 hold, the upside target could extend toward $3,413. As long as gold stays above its key supports, the medium-term bullish momentum remains intact.
What about you — do you agree with my outlook? Feel free to share your thoughts so we can discuss further.
Good luck!
Gold Setup: Bearish Rising Wedge Signals Imminent ReversalHello everyone, I'm back with the latest update on OANDA:XAUUSD !
On the H1 chart, we can see a "Bearish Rising Wedge" pattern forming, signaling a potential downtrend. After a strong rally, gold has continued to create higher highs, but buying momentum is weakening, indicating a divergence between price and volume in the market.
This rising wedge pattern often leads to a reversal, and if gold fails to break through the important resistance at 3,400 USD, the chances of a sharp decline are high. The next support levels around 3,372 and 3,368 USD will be key areas to watch. If these levels are broken, the downtrend will be further confirmed.
Looking at the technical factors, as selling pressure increases, the price could decline even further. This presents an opportunity for traders to consider short positions as the market is likely heading into a significant correction.
What do you think about XAUUSD? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Indexes Pull Back – Is This the Entry You Missed? | SPX500 & HK5Most major indexes like SPX500 and HK50 have retraced about 50% of their recent gains, giving a second chance to those who missed the previous leg up. In this episode, I break down key support zones and share simple, high-probability triggers—range breakouts, engulfing candles, and fakeouts—to spot momentum shifts. 🔍
📍Remember: follow the trend, manage your risk, and no shorting here as it goes against HWC/MWC bias.
( Educational content only , not financial advice. Comment your favorite ticker for future analysis.)
Gold Plan (28/08) – Captain VincentXAU/USD – Gold at Storm Breaker 3400: Consolidation before breaking ATH?
1. Market Waves 🌍
Throughout last week, gold consistently formed BOS (Break of Structure) , confirming that buyers remain dominant.
Currently, price is moving around 3,394 – 3,400, right at Storm Breaker 🌊 – the critical barrier before aiming at the previous ATH 3,424.
The big question: Will gold consolidate and then smash through ATH, or does it need a pullback towards key support before surging stronger in September?
2. Technical Outlook ⚙️
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Major Resistance): 3400 – 3424 (previous ATH). This is the gateway gold must conquer to unlock a new bullish trend.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Key Support): 3375 – 3355 – 3330. Confluence of FVG + Fibonacci 0.5/0.618 , likely to attract liquidity if price corrects.
Short-term scenario: Price may pull back to Golden Harbor before breaking higher.
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔺 Quick Boarding 🚤 (BUY Scalp – pullback priority)
Entry: 3353 – 3355
SL: 3349
TP: 3356 → 3359 → 3361 → 33xx
🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL reaction – previous ATH)
Entry: 3422 – 3424 (if tested)
SL: 3430
TP: 3419 → 3415 → 3410 → 3405 → 33xx
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
“The gold ship is now approaching Storm Breaker 🌊 3400 – 3424 .
If it breaks through, a vast ocean opens with a new bullish trend.
But if rough waves push it back, patience at Golden Harbor 🏝️ will secure the anchor and prepare for September’s big wave.”
XAU/USD – Rise to 3,400 Followed by a PullbackHello everyone, on the H1 chart, gold has resumed its upward movement after bouncing from the 3,375–3,380 USD support zone. However, the 3,400 USD area is acting as a strong resistance level and is unlikely to be broken immediately. It is highly probable that the price will test 3,400 before facing selling pressure, leading to a correction back towards the 3,375 USD zone to retest demand strength.
USD/CHF - Sell Trade Setup📉 USD/CHF – Sell Setup Breakdown
🔎 Bias
Currently leaning bearish. Price rejected from a higher-timeframe supply and continues to respect the descending trendline. Structure is pointing toward deeper liquidity grabs before any major reversal.
🏗 Technical Breakdown
Wave Structure: We completed Wave (4) inside a major supply zone and are now unfolding lower.
Liquidity Hunt: Multiple sweeps of liquidity have been taken on the upside. Current price is gravitating toward sell-side liquidity (SSL) marked below.
Fibonacci Confluence: Rejection aligned with the 71% retracement – classic continuation sell level.
Trendline Respect: Every attempt to break higher has been capped by the diagonal resistance.
🎯 Sell Zones
Entry Area: Any retracement back into the minor supply box (grey zone under the trendline).
Target 1: Sell-side liquidity resting below recent equal lows.
Target 2: Extended push toward the bigger demand block lower (the shaded SSS zone).
⚠️ Risk Notes
If price cleanly breaks and holds above the trendline + supply zone, the bearish idea invalidates.
Best confluence comes from waiting for rejection wicks / bearish order flow before entry.
GBPUSD: Will It Bounce from Support or Breakout Soon?Hello, great to be back and discuss FX:GBPUSD with you all. Here’s my take on this currency pair.
Currently, GBPUSD is moving around 1.345, continuing to trade within a narrow range between the trendline and an important support level.
In the short term, the current downtrend is expected to extend towards the support zone, where a potential bounce could occur.
As long as the price remains within this range, the optimal strategy is to buy near the support and sell when the price reaches the trendline.
What do you think about GBPUSD? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
GBPJPY H4 | Bearish drop off pullback resistanceGBP/JPY is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could potentially drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 199.03, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 200.05, which is a swing high resistance.
Take rpfit is at 197.56, which is a pullback support that lines up with he 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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GOLD eases as it tests $3,400, eyes US GDP dataOANDA:XAUUSD was broadly steady after a slight decline during the Asian session on Thursday (August 28), currently trading around $3,385/ounce. Investors will focus on the US GDP data, which is expected to cause significant market movements.
The revised second-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) figure is expected to come in at today (Thursday), with an expected annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.1%, up from the previous reading of 3.0%. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its second-quarter GDP data. The BEA said in its preliminary estimate that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3%. A downward revision to the GDP data could hurt the dollar and help strengthen gold prices, while an upward revision could have the opposite effect.
Market attention will remain focused on US political tensions and trade war-related news. Following the release of US Q2 GDP data, the trading week will conclude with the release of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and could influence market sentiment regarding a September rate cut.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has not been able to break above $3,400 after two sessions of testing, and it is currently retreating slightly from this level with a possible short-term target of $3,371, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point, as this is the closest support level currently.
Although gold may fall in the short term, it has also achieved the initial conditions for a possible increase, namely the price action maintained above the EMA21 followed by the RSI maintaining above the 50 mark but the slope is not significant, indicating that the upward momentum is not too strong.
As mentioned to readers, gold is in a sideways accumulation trend, while achieving some of the above short-term bullish conditions. Once gold breaks through the $3,400 mark, it will have the conditions to open a new bullish cycle, with the target then being around $3,430 to $3,450.
During the day, the technical outlook is more inclined towards short-term bullishness, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,371 – $3,350
Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 – $3,450
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3430 - 3428⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3434
→Take Profit 1 3322
↨
→Take Profit 2 3316
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
EURUSD and DXY - Reading Instituitonal Order FlowHi there,
It's been a while since my last post. Just catching up on my favourite pair, the EURUSD, and of course not missing out on the DXY for comparative analysis as it is heavily tied to the strength of the EURUSD.
For those new, these are ICT Concepts, with my own touches in it. Hope you enjoy
Happy trading!
- R2F Trading