Crypto's Bullish Talk, Bearish Trades: A Swarm Intelligence AlgoHello,
Artificial Swarm Intelligence
I wrote an Artificial Swarm Intelligence algorithm to run on popular prediction platforms, and Swarm AI reported more than 80% of traders believe in a BTC crash. That's strange because the same algorithm on social media wrote that BTC was a trending topic. Everybody talks about Satoshi Nakamoto, and these talks often diverge into bullish ideas about BTC. According to the swarm, people claim to believe in a bullish outcome for BTC, but they trade to expect a bearish future. I leave the conclusion to you. Who to believe, what people say, or what people trade? And will people lose, or will they make a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Technical Analytics
Technically, MACD demonstrated bearish power until 05 August and slightly weakening bullish momentum by 28 September. At the moment, however, both sides seem powerful. Since 01 October, there's been a bearish cross on MACD, but recently, bears haven't picked up the momentum.
Conclusion
I'd wait until one of the sides starts to exhaust itself before making a trade. The setup suggests possible targets in the white zone, but also that the market can become volatile. If I traded now, I'd use strict stop losses.
Regards,
Ely
Macdcross
SWING IDEA - CHOLAHLDNGStock has been under consolidation since 6 months.
MACD Cross seems to be in play. But has tried crossing since 3 months now.
Lets wait for the MACD Cross to happen successfully and the consolidation could complete around same time.
Stock has been having multiple good Earnings. This should definitely take it to new highs.
Keep a close eye.
NFLX showing weakness poised for a sell offNFLX rally is coming to an end it seems with a clear break below its upward support line and holding below.
Breaks below back in Sept 11, then quickly reverses back up.
Recently breaks below again, tries to regain but fails to get above support level.
Stock is now the support level into its resistance level
RSI breaks below its 50 level and over the past few days
MACD falls into bearish territory
NFLX rally since the August sell off looks to be coming to an end. It is expected that October will bring volatility into the market.
QQQ and SPY comparison in uptrendComparing QQQ and SPY we can that they still both hold up above the support lines.
QQQ and SPY are now showing to hold above their long term downward trend, signaling a turn around
RSI still remains pretty stable on both with only slight weakness on SPY
MACD on both showing leveling off with slight down ward move forming.
Volume is looking to decrease lately
This upward trend breakthrough remains fairly strong so far. Its looks like the down trend we have been dealing with for the past 2 months may be coming to an end now overall. Since we still have October to go through, its certainly possible to get one more sell off before we go into a full bull swing.
SWING IDEA - AGSTRAWeekly MACD Crossover is in play and also very good volumes in the Stock off late.
Expect the Stock to rally to its next leg up provided our Indices are stable and low volatile.
Any big move in market can take the stock down faster.
Ensure to follow Strict Risk Management when trading this stock.
If all is well, the stock can easily rally up to its Swing High levels.
SWING IDEA - PELNSE:PEL has completed its Lower Low Pattern last year March and has ever since being forming a new Higher High Pattern.
At the same time the Price Action and MACD also formed a good Convergence Divergence. Currently the MACD also about to cross in the coming week. This indicates a bullish pattern and chances of going up from here.
915 has formed as a good Support Level and is holding well so far. Once the crossover happens, the stock looks good at least until its Swing High levels.
SWING IDEA - GOLDIAMNSE:GOLDIAM bags INR 600m worth of order for Gold Jewelry.
In addition, even the MACD is about to make a crossover on the weekly charts. This can indicate a good move upward as it comes at the same time that even the company has bagged a very huge order.
If everything goes well, the stock could easily hit the next Support/Resistance zone very comfortably and further up too.
SWING IDEA - ADSLMACD crossover is in play in weekly charts indicating a good move upward. Once the crossover is success, the stock can start its rally.
Currently the stock is getting rejected from the 165 levels and forming a Resistance. Once the stock crosses this level after the MACD Crossover, it can start going upward faster.
$ELF Bouncing Past the 9 & 21 Day Moving AverageNYSE:ELF On average, technical analysts often observe that when a stock crosses above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, there is approximately a 60-70% chance that the upward trend will continue. Conversely, when a stock crosses below both averages, there is about a 60-70% chance that the downward trend will persist.
Here are some general figures:
Bullish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue an upward trend after crossing above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue a downward trend after crossing below both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
These figures are generalized estimates based on typical market behavior and may vary depending on specific stock characteristics and broader market conditions. Always consider conducting specific #backtesting and analysis for the particular stock or market you're interested in for more accurate predictions.
SWING IDEA - JBMAMACD is going to cross pretty soon in the coming days.
Once Cross is done, should open new entry levels for next leg up.
Good chance the stock can easily retouch its Swing High.
Try to take entries only after MACD Cross completes successfully.
Stock's fundamentals looks promising too.
SWING IDEA - TTKPRESTIGPrice Action made a retest @ 650 levels and MACD started making a Higher Low Pattern formation.
MACD has started forming a Higher Low Pattern indicating a good momentum upward from here.
Stock will have to keep maintaining closes above 650 levels as it has formed a good Support Zone as of now. Any closes below this level, could only take the stock to newer Lows.
Lets see if the Stock is all set to its next leg up.
SWING IDEA - STCINDIANSE:STCINDIA is about to have a MACD Crossover in the coming week. This indicates a bullish pattern and chances of going up from here.
135 has formed as a good Support Level and is holding well so far. Once the crossover happens, the stock looks good at least until its Swing High levels.
The company's Earnings and Fundamentals are also looking good.
SWING IDEA - PANAMAPETStock is currently at its 52W high and also breakout zone.
MACD is indicating a good momentum in the upward direction.
Also Monthly MACD has made a crossover, which could possibly take the stock to new highs in the coming weeks/months.
406 has formed as a Key Support for this Trade be to be valid.
Weekly closings above this Support level will surely take the stock to newer highs.
SWING IDEA - GICREStock has made a MACD Cross this week on the Weekly Chart. This crossover can take the stock easily to its Swing High levels again.
The coming week could take the stock to a good move upward if the Market condition remains to be good.
Take entries only after the Market sentiments are favoring.
SWING IDEA - RBAPrice Action made a retest @ 90 levels and MACD started making a Higher Low Pattern formation, which took the stock up to 50%+ profits.
Another MACD Cross is in play now at a good zone.
Ideally it should take the stock easily to its previous Swing High and possible even higher.
Stock is currently at a good buying zone. Let's see how the Price Action plays out for the new MACD Cross now.
Upwork a calm before the storm? Will we have a massive Bull run?Hi guys! This is a Macro analysis on Upwork (UPWK). Macro meaning larger timeframe aka the 1 week in this instance.
Alot of stocks are down fromt heir previous tops. Which means potentials for longterm gains for many names are possible. I try to make sense if things have the technical signs to buy or not.
For UPWK -> some interesting signs were observed. It was observed in comparison to previous patterns seen in the price action and indicators. Note however, past data does not reflect certainty. It does not need to repeat as is.
But again the resemblance is in your face! And it is something to keep in our minds.
Starting with price.
Notice the "Major Resistance" black trendline.
Price has been historically above it or below it with major moves seen.
Above it = Massive Bull Run
Below it = Downtrends followed by consolidation.
Being relatively new public company, we only have 1 data point to use.
Now notice the previous green box marked.
Red trendline shows the downtrend in price, followed by a black trendline that highlights the beginning of the uptrend before massive bull run.
Before we get ABOVE the "Major Resistance" trendline, we consolidate for a period of time in the orange rectangle. That then catapults prices significantly higher.
Notice Volume is seen to spike as well.
Also notice the indicators added:
STOCH RSI during price actions time inside the orange rectangle (consolidation) moves down.
As soon as it crosses Bullish, prices shoot out of the consolidation zone and above the Major Resistance.
Notice too the MACD, the pattern here is that it stalls here becoming almost flat, with histogram bars turning light green, as it turns Dark Green and Blue line curves up, this signals the price to shoot out of consolidation, moving above "Major Resistance".
Fast forward to our current data. We are repeating almost to the tee, the same pattern.
Will it be the same? Or will we be rejected?
Well, we need 3 signs to occur.
STOCH RSI must cross BULLISH (Blue line above orange line)
MACD needs Dark Green bar print with increasing size and Blue line to Curve UP
VOLUME Must start to increase/ spike
Without these 3 signals it is more likely we get rejected here!
Another thing to observe is the consolidation or rectangle pattern. Remember its never a good idea to trade within any chart pattern.
A confirmed break above will determine uptrend.
A confirmed break down will cause rejection.
Very important to continue to observe UPWK.
Ill be sure to update as things become clearer!
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on HOOD in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
I love MACD but there's something fishy about 1268% Net Profit!Hey folks, posting this here for you to tinker with.
It's a simple trading strategy idea I have using the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for signals on when to enter and exit trades. Let's break down the key components of your strategy:
Inputs for MACD Calculation:
fastLength: The number of periods to use for the fast moving average in the MACD calculation. This is set to 2 periods by default.
slowLength: The number of periods for the slow moving average in the MACD calculation. This is set to 4 periods by default.
signalSmoothing: The number of periods for the signal line's smoothing. This is set to 2 periods by default.
MACD Calculation:
The ta.macd() function calculates the MACD line, signal line, and the MACD histogram (which you are not using, hence the underscore placeholder _).
The MACD line is the difference between the fast and slow moving averages.
The signal line is a smoothed version of the MACD line.
Trading Signals:
A buy signal (strategy.entry) is generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and the MACD line is above 0. This is interpreted as bullish momentum increasing.
A sell signal or exit signal (strategy.close) is generated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. This is to close any open long position based on the assumption that the bullish momentum is weakening.
Plotting:
The strategy also includes commands to plot the MACD and signal lines on the chart for visual reference. The MACD line is in blue, and the signal line is in orange.
This strategy is overlayed on the price chart (overlay=true), which means you can see the buy and sell signals in conjunction with the price action.
The strategy is simple and only based on the MACD crossing signals without any other filters or risk management rules. It assumes that when the MACD line crosses above the signal line with positive momentum, it is a good time to enter a long position, and when it crosses below, it is time to exit.
Strong Support, Daily MACD cross, Daily Bullish Hammer 72% WRateFollowed plan for the most part. Daily MACD looking prime for bullish cross to the upside on a double cross over pattern. This is a major area of support from where previously we saw a rapid extension to 0.5 from 0.18. Plenty of upside movement meaning that sellers are wary of stepping in the way and buyers are entering large positions at this point. Today (6th Feb) we are observing the creation of a bullish hammer on the daily timeframe, along with further convergence on the MACD, along with increasing volume. BTC is also displaying signs that it's about to breakout from it's $43,000 price point which will lead to a certain surge to over $45,000 and beyond in the lead up to the BTC halving in March. There is so much attention in this space right now, ETF ads coming to Google/Facebook/etc, and massive retracements in the alts market which will be filled very quickly from any bullish pressure seen in BTC. This is the time to go hard or go home son. You've nailed this.
CHFJPY 1H Possible Double bottom in an up trend channelOn this 1H chart for CHFJPY we can notice that the price has been moving in an up trend channel for a while now. Recently it dropped to test the up trend support. At this stage the price is forming a potential double bottom. Monitor it for a potential breakout.
Additional confluences:
- MACD can produce a bullish cross if the price starts going up to complete the Double bottom
- The 2 bottoms are re-bouncing from the 200 EMA
- If the price goes up, in can cross above the 20 and 50 EMAs. Monitor for a bullish cross