Buying Kohl's (KSS) for a move up to $70!We've recently opened a LONG $KSS position using 2.59% of our equity. 💎
Macro framework
The U.S. stock markets have managed to stay on track with their outstanding bull run with less than 2 weeks left until the end of the year. It's true that we've seen some short-term spikes of volatility in the markets mainly driven by the uncertainty around the new COIVD variant (Omicron) and the highest inflation CPI readings since the 80's that we recently got. It seems that the global supply-chain issues are here to stay for longer than market participants expected, which is undoubtedly a worrying fact for the Federal Reserve. The severe supply and demand imbalances that we are seeing in the global economy are a direct product of these supply-chain issues and the weaker labor market. However, non of these market risks was able to substantially bring down the US equity markets. Furthermore, it seems that since Jerome Powell officially "dropped" the word "transitory" from the Fed's rhetoric in their last meeting, the market has already priced in a hawkish stance in their upcoming meeting this week. We believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to be extremely cautious with their tightening actions as they are very well aware of the risks and repercussions that a faster tightening policy could have on the markets.
Thus, we are still expecting to see a strong year-end rally for all risk-assets once the uncertainty around the ongoing Fed meeting goes away.
Why does investing in US mid-caps make sense at this stage?
Year to date, the mid-cap-centric S&P 400 Index has climbed 20.4%.
The large cap focused:
Dow Jones - 16.8%
S&P 500 - 24.3%
Nasdaq Composite - 20.4%
The small cap focused:
Russell 2000 - 12.4%
S&P 600 - 23.1%,
It's obvious that, mid-cap stocks have been among the best performing stocks so far in 2021.
Adding qualitative mid-cap companies to your portfolio could significantly optimize your portfolio position as a result of the meaningful diversification that they can bring. In many instances, mid-cap stocks combine the attractive features of both small and large-cap stocks. Mid-cap companies that have a strong market position in their respective industries, skilled and experienced senior management teams and are enjoying economies of scale can see their stocks moving sharply higher as a result of the companies' ability to enhance their profitability, productivity and market share.
There is quite a lot of uncertainty in the market and as a result improving the diversification of your portfolio through the addition of some of these stocks could be significantly helpful for you. You see, if the economic impacts of the new COVID strains are more severe ahead than what the market currently expects, mid-cap stocks will be less vulnerable to losses than their large-cap counterparts, as a result of their more domestic exposure and operations. On the other hand, if we don't see any further worsening of the crisis, these stocks are expected to perform better than their small caps counterparts due to their well-established management teams, broad distribution networks, brand recognition and ready access to the capital markets.
The company is a great Value pick, which we bought and sold earlier in the year for a profit of more than 30%. The company is part of an industry that we would like to increase our exposure to - "Multiline retail"- as we believe that the industry has already experienced a major correction throughout the last few weeks, which now presents an attractive buying opportunity. The main reason for adding $KSS and $M at this point is that we expect to see these companies capture a large portion of the heavy consumer spending that we anticipate to see in the next 4-8 weeks
The Company
💎Kohl's Corporation $KSS operates family-oriented, department stores that feature quality, national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products and housewares targeted to middle-income customers. Headquartered in Menomonee Falls, WI, Kohl’s Corp. operates more than 1,100 stores across 49 states.
Despite in general being recognized as place with lower selling prices, Kohl's also offers a plethora of private brands, which are characterized with much higher gross margins. Exclusive brands including Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang are developed and marketed through agreements with nationally-recognized brands.
Valuation
👉 $KSS has a P/B ratio of 1.51. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. The lower the reading is, the better the company is valued. The company's current P/B looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/B of 2.52.
From a Value investing standpoint the P/S ratio is also a metric that we need to look at more closely. This ratio is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. This is a popular metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement, so they are often considered a better performance indicator. KSS has a P/S ratio of 0.46. This again compares favorably to its industry's average P/S of 0.64.
Last but not least, we should also point out that KSS has a P/CF ratio of 6.19. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their current and future cash outlook. $KSS again looks as an attractive Value pick from that standpoint as its P/CF ratio is lower than its industry's average of 9.96.
📈Technical Analysis📈
From a technical standpoint, the stock also looks attractive as it has recently experienced a steep 23% correction and is currently sitting at a strong support level where buyers are expected to come back to the stock. The stock has been a victim of the constant and volatile sector rotation that we've seen in the recent months and we believe that the selling is heavily overdone at these levels. The stock is currently resting right around its 200-day moving average and right above the strong horizontal and psychological support level of $47. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that the positive momentum is coming back into the stock and we expect the see the stock challenging its 52-week highs around $64 in the next 6-8 weeks. Our 4-6 month target range for the stock is $70-80 where we would be interested in exiting our position in the stock.
Follow and copy us on eToro (@Dowexperts) for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance!
Kind regards,
@DowExperts
