BTC Short Update - First Entry Point Hit Hi all, we have hit the first entry level on this trade idea again, and I will provide you with updated numbers.
First of all - to those asking “why” this would happen - please see my related idea on DXY as well as Blackrock.
For those asking “how” it’s possible, please see my tutorial on drawing heatmaps and understanding how bitcoin moves.
For those following my ideas, I explain order block analysis, my theory on how Bitcoin moves, and here we have a trading plan compiling it all together.
In theory, these drops should happen very quickly - as I explain the technicals of it in the order block tutorials.
Entry - 116,300 to 116,800
Stop Loss - (Can be lowered to 118,000)
Targets:
1) 90,000
2) 62,000
3) 38,000
After the third target we will likely rise to 86,000-88,000 area - however the short may be held all the way to 8,000.
88,000 is a major bearish trendline - I expect this will break, we will form a 3 wave corrective pattern and rise back up to retest this level.
4) 20,000 (Potential bottom 18,000)
5) 10,000
God speed and happy trading.
Manipulation
Gold at a Crossroad – 3645 Wall vs 3610 Base👋 Hello traders,
Gold is trading now around 3636 after printing the ATH at 3674. Since then, price has been rejected twice from the 3645–3650 supply zone, forming clear lower highs and showing signs of distribution.
🔸 HTF Picture (D1–H4):
Momentum is cooling, RSI is coming down from overbought, and EMAs are starting to lose their bullish slope. Structure is heavy under 3645, but the higher timeframe uptrend is still intact as long as 3610–3600 holds.
🔸 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3645–3650 → strong supply, rejection zone.
Support: 3610–3600 → structural base, must hold to avoid deeper correction.
⚡ Friday Context:
We have red USD news (UoM sentiment + inflation expectations). On top of that, it’s Friday, and gold often plays dirty before weekly close – fake spikes, liquidity grabs, and manipulation are common.
🎯 The battlefield is clear: 3610 vs 3645. If bulls defend the base, we could see another push higher. If sellers keep control below the wall, more downside opens.
📊 What’s your play here? Buy the dip or fade the wall?
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, hit the like button if this helps your trading, and don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for daily precision updates 🚀✨ ma refer la text, asta era textul
DXY - Major Breakdown of bearish StructureDXY has broken down and is currently retesting a breakdown of this major ascending channel on the weekly - monthly time frame.
Applying this to equities and Bitcoin - we can anticipate a bull run spanning 3-6 years approximately.
Due to the major event of this retest here - I expect that Bitcoin and manipulated markets will see a flash crash of severe magnitude, popping the balloon of the over- leveraged market caps.
No black swan is needed to see this take place on Bitcoin. The charts been rising steadily and holding since 2023 - this attracts long leveraged positions and consequently their stop loss orders. Sell orders are cascading in the chart all the way down to 10,000 - and only fill when price crosses.
This is the event that will pop the bubble before we see stability in the bull run. I don’t expect the equities markets to drop substantially at all - rather I believe we will continue to rise for 3-6 years coinciding with DXY breakdown.
BTC - The largest Trap we have seenThis whole upwards movement since 2023 has been a retest of a bearish breakdown.
The major trendline shown takes Bitcoin to 7,400-8,000 region.
Traders who discredit the possibility of this will certainly be baited and trapped.
Bitcoin will drop aggressively, triggering all of the long stop loss orders one after the next - leveraged sell limit orders that only fill when price passes. This will generate an insanely fast drop to these uber lows.
Traders will take their losses, or their gains - trying to catch the bottom, certain price won’t drop below 100,000 - the 80,000 - then 60,000.
They will not be able to fathom how a drop of such magnitude is possible - or where it’s going to, because they don’t take into consideration the power of stop loss orders and the sheer amount of leveraging in Bitcoins market cap.
Microstrategy - who leverages their assets to produce more of the asset - will likely be challenged with insolvency when the price shows this type of volatility.
The safety of exchange platforms will be called into question - the legalities of leveraging challenged by regulations.
Blackrock will secure their monopoly on Bitcoins buying and selling through their own ETF structure.
Open your eyes. Don’t get trapped or fooled.
This whole move has been a big, intentional set up and my posts explain in detail why, how, what, and when.
ETH - Don’t be fooled - Bearish Retest ETH (like Bitcoin) has risen only to retest a bearish breakdown on the HTF.
This whole upwards movement is one big set up - to trap liquidity in longs and absorb it all from the chart.
My initial call is marked here with original entry.
Second entry can be 4,420 region.
Short to my targets marked on chart.
Don’t be a sucker and get trapped by this.
Happy trading
Understanding How Crypto Exchanges Influence Coin PricesUnderstanding How Crypto Exchanges Influence Coin Prices
Cryptocurrency markets often appear unpredictable, with sudden price surges or drops that seem to defy logic. For example, when Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) experiences a sharp upward spike—a "green candle"—many altcoins follow almost instantly. Why does this happen so quickly? This tutorial explores the theory that centralized exchanges (e.g., Binance, Coinbase) can manipulate coin prices by adjusting internal database values rather than executing real on-chain trades, and how they may use "pegging ratios" to control price movements of specific coins or ecosystems.
The Myth of Instant Market Reactions
When CRYPTOCAP:BTC surges, altcoins often move in lockstep, seemingly without delay. A common assumption is that millions of investors or market-making bots react simultaneously, causing this synchronized movement. However, natural market reactions typically involve some lag due to order book processing, trader decisions, or bot algorithms. So why is the movement near-instantaneous?
The answer may lie in how centralized exchanges operate. Unlike decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which rely on transparent on-chain transactions, centralized exchanges manage trades internally using their own databases. This means they control virtual coin balances, not necessarily actual blockchain assets. When an exchange wants to "pump" a coin (e.g., increase its price by 10% following a CRYPTOCAP:BTC spike), it doesn't need to buy real coins on the blockchain. Instead, it can simply adjust the coin's value in its database, creating the appearance of market activity without requiring reserve assets.
This internal manipulation allows exchanges to influence prices rapidly, explaining the lack of lag in altcoin movements.
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How Exchanges Peg Coins to Major Assets
Exchanges often peg the price movements of altcoins to major cryptocurrencies like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , CRYPTOCAP:ETH , or CRYPTOCAP:SOL , using a weighted ratio that determines how closely a coin follows these leaders. This pegging isn't a fixed value but a dynamic relationship that can vary by coin or ecosystem. For instance:
Typical Pegging Structure:
50% tied to CRYPTOCAP:BTC (the dominant market driver).
50% tied to other ecosystems (e.g., CRYPTOCAP:ETH for Ethereum-based tokens, CRYPTOCAP:SOL for Solana-based tokens).
Example: A meme coin on the Ethereum blockchain might be pegged 50% to CRYPTOCAP:BTC , 25% to CRYPTOCAP:ETH , and 25% to a general "meme coin" index.
This pegging explains why some coins pump or dump more aggressively than others during market trends. Each coin's price movement is a weighted response to the assets it's tied to.
The Role of Pegging Ratios: Pumps vs. Dumps
Exchanges don't apply uniform ratios for upward and downward price movements. Instead, they may assign positive or negative ratios to influence a coin's trajectory:
Positive Ratio: A coin rises faster than its pegged assets during pumps (upward movements) and falls slower during dumps (downward movements). This increases the coin's value over time, often because the exchange holds a large position and plans to sell later for profit.
Example: CRYPTOCAP:SOL might have a 2:1 positive ratio, rising twice as fast as CRYPTOCAP:BTC during a pump and falling half as fast during a dump.
Other Examples: CRYPTOCAP:BNB (Binance's token) and GETTEX:HYPE often show positive ratios, benefiting from exchange favoritism.
Negative Ratio: A coin rises slower than its pegged assets during pumps and falls faster during dumps. This can gradually erode a coin's value, often used by exchanges to liquidate or delist coins they no longer favor.
Example: SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:ORDI , pegged to CRYPTOCAP:BTC , may fall faster than CRYPTOCAP:BTC during dumps and rise slower during pumps, leading to a net decline.
Other Examples: CRYPTOCAP:INJ , NYSE:SEI , LSE:TIA often exhibit negative ratios.
Meme coins are a special case, typically pegged to both CRYPTOCAP:BTC and their native blockchain:
CRYPTOCAP:PEPE (Ethereum-based) may have a neutral ratio, moving evenly with CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $ETH.
SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:BONK (Solana-based) might have a negative ratio, falling faster than CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $SOL.
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Exchange Strategies: Controlling Ecosystems and Liquidation
Exchanges can manipulate entire ecosystems by adjusting ratios for categories of coins. For example:
Setting a 2:1 ratio on all meme coins could make them rise twice as fast as CRYPTOCAP:BTC during a pump, creating hype and attracting retail investors.
Conversely, assigning a negative ratio to an ecosystem (e.g., certain layer-2 tokens) can suppress their value, allowing the exchange to accumulate or liquidate positions.
A notable strategy is slow liquidation:
Exchanges may apply a negative ratio to a coin they wish to delist (e.g., SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:ORDI ). Over time, the coin's value erodes until it reaches a level where the exchange can justify delisting it, citing "low trading volume" or "lack of interest."
This process creates space for new coins the exchange favors, often ones they hold or have partnerships with.
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Why This Matters for Traders?
The idea that coin prices are driven purely by investor sentiment and organic price action is overly simplistic. Centralized exchanges, with their control over internal databases, can heavily influence price trends. Understanding this can help traders:
Identify Positive-Ratio Coins: These are likely to increase in value over the mid-to-long term. Accumulating coins like CRYPTOCAP:SOL or CRYPTOCAP:BNB during dips could yield profits if their positive ratios persist.
Avoid Negative-Ratio Coins: Coins like SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:ORDI or CRYPTOCAP:INJ may bleed value over time, draining portfolios unless traded carefully.
Monitor Ecosystem Shifts: Watch for exchange announcements (e.g., new listings, delistings) or unusual price movements that deviate from $BTC/ CRYPTOCAP:ETH trends, as these may signal ratio changes.
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Important Notes
Dynamic Ratios: Pegging ratios are not fixed and can change daily based on exchange strategies, market conditions, or liquidity needs. Always verify current trends with real-time data.
Data Sources: Use tools like CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or on-chain analytics (e.g., tradingview) to track correlations between coins and their pegged assets.
Risks of Centralized Exchanges: This tutorial focuses on centralized platforms, not DEXs, where on-chain transparency limits such manipulation. Consider diversifying to DEXs for more predictable trading.
Speculative Nature: While this theory is based on observed market patterns, it remains speculative. Exchanges rarely disclose internal mechanisms, so traders should combine this knowledge with technical analysis and risk management.
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Conclusion
Crypto exchanges wield significant power over coin prices by adjusting virtual balances in their databases and using dynamic pegging ratios. By understanding positive and negative ratios, traders can make informed decisions about which coins to hold or avoid. Always conduct your own research, monitor market trends, and use secure platforms to protect your investments. The crypto market may be rigged in some ways, but knowledge of these mechanics can give you an edge.
ETH - High Risk ShortPer my BTC analysis, I expect the market to crash very hard and quickly, timed with the US dollar bearish retest on major weekly breakdown.
Entry in green, targets marked and path shown.
ETH fell below this major series of bearish trendlines, targets marked by analyzing liquidity and volume profile levels.
BTC - Following Crash PlanBTC has been following my analysis of predicting a potential crash here.
We can use DXY to anticipate when a significant liquidity grab / flash crash will occur.
Since DXY is retesting a major breakdown on the weekly - monthly, it would be wise to watch for volatility today on Bitcoins price, noting these liquidity regions if we are about to enter a bull run ranging out 3-5 years.
Targets and potential corrective patterns marked on this chart.
Happy trading.
BTC - The Reason 8,000 is Possible There is already speculation and news coming out about plans of a large drop, and I imagine if this occurs there will be much hysteria and conspiracy about it.
Bitcoin is massively dominated by leverage trading. In fact, the majority of buys (or sells respectively) are leveraged.
Even Microstrategy for example, is leveraging its BTC to buy more BTC - and what happens when the value of the asset drops too low when leveraging is used? Well, we will find out. But normally this means bankruptcy / liquidation.
In futures trading, this is liquidation or stop losses being hit on those positions.
Since the price of BTC has been moving up, sideways, up, sideways, up, sideways - we could see for years the intentionality in this chart.
The market has been accumulating long positions / leveraged buys, holding the price up and continuing to attract money into the market cap (leveraged) and keep the orders in tact.
As a consequence, this leaves behind a trail, like a series of dominos, of leveraged sell orders.
These sell orders are in the form of long stop losses or liquidations. In essence, we have an explosive chain reaction ready to set off in the chart - an automatic, natural consequence to how the chart has been moving the last 2 years.
The argument may be that Bitcoins market cap is stabilized by a “floor”, possibly by ETF holdings, spot holdings, ETC - however, this is not the case. Many of these spot holdings themselves are leveraged with BTC to procure more BTC.
Even so, the vast majority of the market cap is market maker liquidity allowing retail traders to leverage trade the asset and other cryptocurrency - and the exchanges aren’t legislated to disclose where the stop losses are located or how much liquidity is contained here.
So if we think popular heat map and liquidation platforms are accurate, think again. The only way to really understand this, is to look at the price movement on HTF.
There are longs held since 12,000, and stop losses respectively held sub 10,000.
I suspect the true “floor price” of BTC is between 7,000 to 8,000 - that’s the total percentage of stable spot holding liquidity vs leveraged liquidity. Leveraged liquidity has no incentive to be stable, it moves in and out, market makers make their money via bankrupting / liquidating traders, or forcing them into stopped out positions.
For me, the last 1-2 years, this has never been an IF, but a WHEN. And WHEN this chain reaction occurs, those reading this can understand the reason is not a black swan (although that may serve as some initial excuse) - but rather a very natural phenomenon in a unique market that we mistakingly treat as a stable market that these events simple cannot happen in.
I’ll be very clear when I say - it’s possible BTC drops to 8,000, extremely fast, possibly in a matter of days or even hours, and quickly returns to ATH positions.
The real warning here I want to get across, is that a flash crash as I am describing, will only go so low as the stop loss orders are active. Ultimately there are no incentives or plans to destroy or bring BTC to zero.
When this flush happens, the big players (market makers) will be filling in the buy orders at those low prices with the liquidity returned from retail longs.
DO NOT SELL AT A MASSIVE LOSS. This is the biggest warning I have to get across with these posts, and would be the most devastating conclusion - believing BTC will go to nothing.
DXY is breaking down a major multi month bearish pattern and over the next 3-5 year period will be absorbing liquidity towards the lows. A falling dollar = bull market for BTC and equities.
This move up on BTC WAS NEVER A BULL MARKET - it was a bearish retest. This explains the erratic, up only nature of the move zoomed out - and all these justifications to explain that this is the “norm” it’s dangerous to traders. It’s not the norm of a bull market, it’s the norm of a bearish retest.
What do you do with this information?
If you are me, and by no means am I suggesting this, you can short the market and try to align yourselves with the big players.
If you’re a believer in the future of BTC, you can do nothing - not letting any fast drop or hysteria shake you or drive you to making an emotional decision to sell or change your mind.
This has never been a doom and gloom scenario for you all - it’s a reality check, a warning, and an opportunity to prepare yourselves for something you may not yet believe is possible unless you’ve been watching this market unfold since it’s very inception. In those cases, you will certainly remember flash crashes and stop hunts - and they have never changed, nor has the nature of the exchanges or market - it’s month more calculated now with big players invested in capitalizing to the fullest on the flaws of it all.
I wish you all the best.
Recent Dip & What It Means for the Trojan Cycle: Fact Check1. Stablecoin Capital Flow — Not a Typical Sell-Off
On August 14–15 , Binance saw $1.82 billion in net stablecoin inflows, one of the highest recent figures.
Simultaneously, Tether and Circle minted a combined $9.5 billion in stablecoins over the past 30 days , signaling significant on-ramp activity.
These patterns contradict what we'd expect in a pure capitulation. Instead, they suggest capital is being positioned to buy into dips , not exit markets—hallmarks of the positioning-reset phase in the Trojan Cycle.
2. Institutional Accumulation Aligns with Thesis
Spot Ether ETFs just recorded over $1 billion in net inflows in one day (led by BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH), bringing total ETF inflows to $10.8 billion.
Two whales accumulated $150 million in ETH , reinforcing institutional interest at these levels.
This indicates institutional players are using the dip as an opportunity to accumulate—consistent with the Trojan framework's “Trojan vehicles” mechanics.
3. Market Structural Trends Support Rotation Setup
Ethereum price dipped ~3% , suggesting short-term weakness but providing a potential entry zone.
Network activity remains robust: ETH daily on-chain transactions recently neared all-time highs at ~1.87 million , driven primarily by stablecoin transfers .
Strong on-chain activity alongside stablecoin flow indicates capital preparation for a rotation phase, rather than a breakdown.
Trojan Cycle Thesis — Data Review
Aspect --> What Trojan Cycle Predicts --> What Data Shows
Stablecoin Inflows --> Increases ahead of rotation --> Binance saw $1.82B in inflows; $9.5B minted overall
Institutional Buying --> Accumulation during dips --> $1B+ ETF inflows; $150M ETH whales buying
Network Activity --> Pre-rotation buildup --> High ETH txn volume, stablecoin activity peaking
Conclusion: All three key indicators align with the Trojan Cycle model. This dip appears to be a positioning flush, not the start of a structural downturn.
BTC - Short Update Part 2This chart shows the ascending parallel channel that supports 7,000-8,000 ultimate bottom - layered with BITCOIN ONLY liquidity zones on the multi day time frame.
The majority or liquidity in the chart is long position stop losses - leveraged sell orders.
Bitcoin has been moving straight up, consolidating sideways, straight up, consolidating sideways since End 2022.
This tells us the market is collecting long position stop losses and leaving them in tact IE not allowing price to fully drop and start triggering off the cascading chain reaction of sells that is a natural phenomenon.
Happy Trading.
BTC - About to TankBitcoin is holding below these bearish trendlines pointed out on previous posts.
Here we can see liquidation levels on the HTF.
I see two potential moves:
Scenario A)
115,000 to 17,000-20,000 range
Scenario B)
3 Wave Corrective Pattern
115,000 to 35,000
35,000 to 83,000
83,000 to 8,000-10,000
DXY is retesting a major bearish breakdown on the weekly / monthly time frame. This is why we have been seeing the recent drop, and preparation for a mass liquidation / flash crash.
The above stated is my own personal views and is not intended as financial advice. Please trade responsibly.
BTC - Zoomed Out ScenarioAs predicted DXY has broken down a major monthly bearish trendline - currently finishing a bearish retest before further free fall.
If this plays out we have 2-3 years of a weakening / correcting dollar, and a strengthening investment in assets such as Bitcoin.
This means an extended bull market spanning 2-4 years on Bitcoin and equities.
However - there is a mass amount of liquidity to the uber lows towards 10,000 on BTC.
Market is showing manipulated intention to hit these lows by keeping the price below this bearish cross section - and that’s why bitcoin hasn’t been moving up yet.
This tells me this is more likely than we all think to play out.
I’m trading the following:
Short - 108,200 to 35,000
Long - 35,000 to 80,000
Short - 80,000 to 10,000
Will update accordingly if the plan changes.
Happy trading.
Why BTC hasn’t moved up recentlyBTC has been bobbing above and below this bearish triple crossover the past few months. What we see as consolidation is rather price getting stuck around these resistance levels.
The only reason why this would be occurring in my view, is due to the market makers having intention to allow this drop to play out.
The resistance is located at around 107,000 to 107,400 - watch this zone closely for a hold below / rejection and fast drop.
Scenario 1 marked with solid red line.
Scenario 2 marked with dotted red line.
Little update for y’all. Happy weekend trading.
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap📉 Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth.
🧐 Here’s how the cycle works:
1️⃣ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers.
2️⃣ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave."
3️⃣ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders.
4️⃣ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion.
5️⃣ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle.
📊 Historical Evidence:
- 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery.
- 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH.
- 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak.
🔎 If you’re buying now, be ready to:
⛔ Lose access to your money
⛔ Keep covering margins
⛔ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens …
They play the same trick, every time. If you don’t recognize it, you’re just another part of the cycle. 🚀🔥
INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
BTC - On its way down from these trendlines How low can we go? We will find out.
Three bearish intersecting trendlines above.
Short began initiating from above as per my previous post.
I personally am not ruling out a flash crash to 10,000.
DXY is breaking down a major bearish trendline on the weekly / monthly - Market has a prime opportunity to manipulate Bitcoin into all of these long stop losses and trigger a massive liquidation event.
Stay alert and safe!
BTC - Be mindful of resistance around 109,800 to 110,000Per my second last post about this red trendline - be mindful that there is a resistance located 109,800 to 110,000 zone.
Although Bitcoin can break above, that doesn’t mean the resistance is invalid. Price will weave above and below until it sticks and plays out.
Personally I watch these levels for sudden fast movement and confirmation that it’s holding as resistance.
If you see a fast drop initiate from these levels, be mindful that this could be indicative of intention to hit the lows around 20,000.
For more information see my previous posts.
Happy trading
A Follow up to: “Adjustments for Better Readings & VSA vs BTC"When a trend approaches its end, we typically observe the formation of a buying or selling climax. That was certainly the case during Wyckoff’s era. Everything he described—market manipulation, signals, footprints—remains relevant today. But you know what that also means: if it's out there, it’s old news.
Yes, this is still happening, but we need to acknowledge that this information is no longer exclusive. And when a method becomes well-known—especially among retail traders—it can be used against them. Wyckoff himself hinted at this: the manipulators can and do use these same technical patterns to deceive. His real message?
“Keep an open mind.”
📉 In our current BTC chart, we’re seeing a textbook example of potential manipulation. A selling climax is visible—normally a sign of trend exhaustion and a bullish reversal. But is that really the case here? Did the downtrend truly end?
On the 1-Hour timeframe, both the RSI and volume indicators suggest otherwise: a bearish continuation seems more likely.
🧱 We're also witnessing a real-time formation of a Double Top pattern, taking shape since June 6. Measured by body candle spreads (excluding wicks), we observe four touches within a key price rectangle. These align with a known candlestick pattern: the Tweezer Top, commonly associated with bearish reversals.
What’s more, all of this is happening within a supply zone—actually three marked zones on the chart. The most recent zone shows signs of offloading pressure, amplified by both the Double Top and bearish candlestick formations.
And I haven’t even touched on the rejection wicks or how bearish volume spikes are gaining strength. That’s where the principle of Effort vs. Result comes in—remember, nothing in the market is free.
📊 In line with our past two posts, note how price action (PA) shows equal highs while RSI diverges, reinforcing earlier signals. The signs are stacking up.
So, the critical question now is:
Are we heading below the $100.718 level for a confirmed Head & Shoulders pattern?
Or is this just a retest before another move?
If this way of reading the market resonates with you and you want to go deeper—whether it’s building confidence or spotting signals before they play out—I work with a small circle of traders sharing TA privately on a daily basis. Feel free to reach out.
Till next time be well and trade wisely!
BTC Under Major Resistance HereBitcoin has shown strength towards playing out these ideas, as unrealistic as it may seem.
The interactions at specific levels have shown these trendlines to be valid.
I see two scenarios if BTC holds below its resistance at 104,550 to 105,000
104,600 to 35,000
35,000 retrace to 75,000
75,000 to 7,000
Alternatively:
104,600 to 20,000
Up from 20,000
While these seem like macro projections, per my previous posts and explanations - it’s possible to see this occur in a very small period of time. IE flash crash, stop hunt, etc.
Happy trading.
Bitcoin – Entering a distribution phase after a bull trap?Since the second week of May, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a textbook accumulation phase, with a well-defined trading range forming just below the previous all-time high. Beginning around May 12, price action became increasingly compressed, marked by a series of higher lows and relatively flat resistance, indicating growing demand and waning selling pressure. This consolidation structure persisted for more than a week, suggesting that larger players were accumulating positions in anticipation of a breakout. Now it could be making the Power of 3. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution.
Accumulation, manipulation and distribution
Eventually, this coiled energy resolved to the upside. BTC broke through the upper boundary of the accumulation zone with increasing volume and momentum, triggering a sharp rally and leading to the formation of a new all-time high. At that point, market sentiment turned decidedly bullish, with breakout traders entering the market, expecting continuation. However, the price failed to sustain above the previous ATH for long. Despite the breakout’s initial strength, Bitcoin was unable to establish a solid foothold above the critical psychological and technical level, which has now proven to be a key inflection point.
Soon after setting a new high, BTC began to reverse, shedding gains and retracing back below the former resistance level, which had temporarily acted as support. The breakdown below the $106,000 mark, previously the ceiling of the accumulation range, signaled a notable shift in market structure. What was initially viewed as a healthy continuation pattern evolved into what now appears to be a classic bull trap. This type of failed breakout often leaves market participants vulnerable, as late buyers are caught in drawdowns and early longs may be incentivized to exit positions.
Given this context, the recent price action carries the hallmarks of a Power of 3, where market makers and institutions may be offloading positions to less informed participants. This phase is often mistaken for continued accumulation by retail traders due to its structural similarity; however, the key difference lies in the failure to maintain new highs and the emergence of lower highs on any attempted bounce. The rejection above the ATH and the subsequent breakdown below $106K has introduced significant overhead supply, which may act as resistance in the near term.
Target levels
As BTC continues to trade below this critical level, the likelihood of a further retracement grows. The market appears to be transitioning into a phase of redistribution or distribution proper, where price is likely to be capped on rallies and pressured lower over time. It is reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could revisit $100.000 to mid-$90,000s, an area that may serve as a magnet for liquidity and a potential staging ground for the next major move. This region could represent a "Last Point of Supply" (LPSY) within the Wyckoff framework, typically the final area where smart money distributes before initiating a more decisive markdown phase.
Nevertheless, this potential pullback should not be viewed solely as a sign of weakness. In many bull cycles, such corrections and shakeouts serve to flush out over-leveraged positions and reset sentiment, ultimately laying the groundwork for renewed upward momentum. Should BTC find stability and demand re-emerge in the $95K–$100K range, it could mark the beginning of a new re-accumulation phase, leading to a healthier and more sustainable advance.
Conclusion
In summary, the recent breakout above ATH followed by a sharp reversal and loss of key support paints a cautionary picture in the short term. Bitcoin may currently be navigating a distribution zone, with downside pressure likely to persist as the market digests recent gains. However, such corrections are typical in broader uptrends and often present opportunities for strategic entries once the next accumulation structure becomes clear. Patience and disciplined observation will be essential as the market defines its next directional bias.
Thanks for your support.
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Mastering the ICT Power of 3 concept - How to use it in trading!The financial markets often appear chaotic and unpredictable, but behind the scenes, institutional players operate with clear strategies that shape price action. One such strategy is the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) "Power of 3" model, a framework used to understand and anticipate market cycles through three key phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. This guide will break down each of these phases in detail, explaining how smart money operates and how retail traders can align themselves with the true direction of the market.
What will be discussed?
- The 3 phases
- Examples of the PO3
- How to trade the PO3
- Tips for trading the PO3
The 3 phases
Accumulation
The Accumulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model refers to the initial stage of a market cycle where institutional or "smart money" participants quietly build their positions. During this time, price typically moves sideways within a tight range, often showing little to no clear direction. This is intentional. The market appears quiet or indecisive, which is designed to confuse retail traders and keep them out of alignment with the real intentions of the market's larger players.
In this phase, smart money is not looking to move the market dramatically. Instead, they are focused on accumulating long or short positions without drawing attention. They do this by keeping price contained within a consolidation zone. The idea is to gather enough liquidity, often from unsuspecting retail traders entering early breakout trades or trying to trade the range, before making a more aggressive move.
Manipulation
The Manipulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the second stage that follows accumulation. This phase is where smart money deliberately moves the market in the opposite direction of their intended move to trigger retail stop losses, induce emotional decisions, and create liquidity.
After price has consolidated during accumulation, many retail traders are either already positioned or have orders waiting just outside the range, either stop losses from those trading the range or breakout orders from those anticipating a directional move. The manipulation phase exploits this positioning. Price will often break out of the accumulation range in one direction, appearing to confirm a new trend. This move is designed to look convincing, it might even come with a spike in volume or momentum to draw traders in.
However, this breakout is a false move. It doesn’t represent the true intention of smart money. Instead, it's meant to sweep liquidity, triggering stop losses above or below the range, and then reverse sharply. This stop run provides the liquidity needed for large players to finalize their positions at optimal prices. Once enough liquidity is collected, and retail traders are caught offside, the real move begins.
Distribution
The Distribution Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the final stage of the cycle, following accumulation and manipulation. This is where the true intention of smart money is revealed, and the market makes a sustained, directional move, either bullish or bearish. Unlike the earlier phases, distribution is marked by clear price expansion, increased volatility, and decisive momentum.
After smart money has accumulated positions and shaken out retail traders through manipulation, they have the liquidity and positioning needed to drive the market in their desired direction. The distribution phase is where these positions are "distributed" into the broader market, meaning, institutions begin to offload their positions into the retail flow that is now chasing the move. Retail traders, seeing the strong trend, often jump in late, providing the liquidity for smart money to exit profitably.
This phase is typically what retail traders perceive as the real trend, and in a sense, it is. However, by the time the trend is obvious, smart money has already entered during accumulation and profited from the manipulation. What appears to be a breakout or trend continuation to most retail participants is actually the final leg of the smart money’s strategy. They are now unloading their positions while price continues to expand.
Examples of the Power of 3
How to trade the PO3?
Start by identifying a clear accumulation range. This typically happens during the Asian session or the early part of the London session. Price moves sideways, forming a consolidation zone. Your job here isn’t to trade, but to observe. Draw horizontal lines marking the high and low of the range. These become your key liquidity zones.
Next, anticipate the manipulation phase, which usually occurs during the London session or at the NY open. Price will often break out of the range, triggering stop losses above the high or below the low of the accumulation zone. This move is deceptive, it is not the real trend. Do not chase it. Instead, wait for signs of rejection, such as a sharp reversal after the liquidity grab, imbalance filling, or a shift in market structure on a lower timeframe (like a 1- or 5-minute chart).
Once manipulation has swept liquidity and price starts showing signs of reversing back inside the range or beyond, you now look for a confirmation of the true move, this begins the distribution phase. You enter in the direction opposite of the manipulation move, ideally once price breaks a structure level confirming that smart money has taken control.
For example, if price consolidates overnight, fakes a move to the downside (running sell stops), and then quickly reverses and breaks above a key swing high, that's your signal that the true move is likely up. Enter after the break and retest of structure, using a tight stop loss below the recent low. Your target should be based on liquidity pools, fair value gaps, or higher-timeframe imbalances.
The key to trading the Power of 3 is patience and precision. You're not trying to catch every move, but to wait for the market to complete its cycle of deception and then ride the clean expansion. Ideally, your entry comes just after manipulation, and you hold through the distribution/expansion phase, taking partials at key liquidity levels along the way.
Tips for trading the PO3
1. Learn price movements
Before you can effectively apply the ICT Power of 3 strategy, it’s crucial to have a deep understanding of how price behaves. This means being comfortable identifying market structure, recognizing trend direction, and interpreting candlestick dynamics. Since the Power of 3 is deeply rooted in how price moves in real time, a strong grasp of these basics will give you the confidence to read the market correctly as each phase develops.
2. Analyse multiple timeframes
Although the Power of 3 pattern shows up on lower timeframes, relying on just one can lead to misreads. You’ll gain a clearer picture when you align the short-term view with higher timeframe structure. For example, what appears to be accumulation on the 15-minute chart may simply be a retracement in a larger trend on the 1-hour or daily. By examining multiple timeframes together, you can better identify the true setup and avoid being tricked by noise.
3. Exercise patience
A key part of trading the Power of 3 is knowing when to act, and more importantly, when not to. It’s easy to get impatient during the accumulation or manipulation phases, but entering too early often leads to frustration or losses. True discipline comes from waiting for the expansion or distribution phase, when the market reveals its real direction. This is where the most favorable risk-to-reward setups occur.
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BTC - Another Potential Bearish PatternHere I present my second alternative for a Bearish case for Bitcoin.
Per my previous posts I explain in detail the interest in recollecting liquidity in these lower zones. Previously I presented pathways to the uber lows at 7,000-10,000 - however this is another possible case.
I believe Bitcoin can see a drop from 109,200 straight down to 19,000-20,000
Why?
1. Major Volume support at this level
2. Major liquidity pools in confluence with this level
3. Price would form a W bottom with a higher low - which aligns with DXY breaking down on the monthly time frame. We can use DXY to project a bull market spanning 2-5 years (weakening dollar = more interest in deflationary assets such as Bitcoin)
4. Per the note above, it’s unlikely that BTC continues straight up without a sharp drop. The way this market works is to a large degree with leverage trading. The market and exchanges desperately want to shake out these longs, especially if we consider a 2-5 year bullish forecast through a macro view.
5. Confluence with this diagonal trendline which shows a clear support / resistance structure (note the Bitcoin chart is formed via diagonal ascending support and resistance lines - we can demonstrate this clearly and repeatable by duplicating the correct trendline and seeing how it forms the chart at any location)
Personally, I am shorting Bitcoin from 109,000 - and am expecting to see a fast drop through the rest of the weekend.
I will watch what the price does, where it reacts and interacts, and attempt to get a head start on understanding the true bottom before this “true” bull cycle begins.
Happy trading