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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇨🇳 Tariff Truce Extended 90 Days The White House signed an order late Monday extending the U.S.–China tariff pause by 90 days—removing a key overnight risk into CPI day. Watch AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX , TVC:DXY , NASDAQ:TLT for the reaction. 💵 Dollar Firms Into CPI The dollar edged higher ahead of this morning’s inflation print as traders recalibrate rate-cut odds; stocks and long U.S. yields were choppy into the release. 🗓️ Quiet Tape, Big Catalyst Futures and global markets stayed cautious into CPI; positioning is tight after Monday’s drift lower. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 12 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (July). 8:30 AM — CPI (July) & Core CPI (official BLS release). 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks (Chicago; 9:00 CT). 10:30 AM — Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeff Schmid speaks (9:30 CT). 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (July) (Treasury MTS, 8th business day). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #Fed #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Inflation Double-Header: CPI Tue + PPI Thu set the tone for AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX , rates, TVC:DXY , $TLT. 🏦 Fed Speaker Blitz: Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, Bostic—watch headlines for rate-path hints. 🛍️ Consumer Pulse Friday: Retail Sales + Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization = read on demand & output. 🧭 Keep it tight: Focus on CPI, PPI, Claims, Retail Sales, IP/CapU. Everything else is background noise. 📊 Key Data Releases (most impactful only) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 12 • CPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin & Schmid speak (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Thu, Aug 14 • Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) • PPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Fri, Aug 15 • Retail Sales (July) — Headline & Ex-Autos (8:30 AM ET) • Industrial Production (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Capacity Utilization (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Aug) (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #PPI #retailsales #Fed #SPY #SPX
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
XRP - Wait for It!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈XRP has been overall bullish trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue, and it is currently retesting the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone marked in orange. 🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange demand zone and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #XRP retests the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🧾 Tariff Shock → Day 2 Positioning Markets are still digesting the new tariff regime (10%–41% on broad imports) and the proposed 100% levy on imported semiconductors with carve-outs for firms investing in U.S. production. Expect continued dispersion: U.S.-capex-heavy names bid; globally exposed hardware, autos, and consumer electronics face margin risk until rules are clarified. 💬 Policy Signaling Risk Fed speakers are leaning cautious on growth and inflation pass-through from tariffs; Bostic flagged skepticism that tariff-driven price effects fade quickly. Translation: don’t count on a rapid dovish pivot because of tariffs alone. ⛽ Energy & Positioning Into the Weekend Oil beta in focus: Baker Hughes U.S. rig count (1:00 pm ET) and CFTC COT (3:30 pm ET) hit this afternoon—both can nudge energy, USD, and risk appetite into the close. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, August 8, 2025 10:20 AM ET – St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (remarks) Market angle: watch for any tariff-inflation commentary and guidance on the path/timing of cuts. 1:00 PM ET – Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Reads on drilling activity; oil services beta and crude sentiment. 3:30 PM ET – CFTC Commitments of Traders (weekly) Positioning update across futures/FX; risk heading into next week. (No major Tier-1 U.S. macro prints scheduled today; next CPI is Tuesday, Aug 12.) Bureau of Labor Statistics ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational info only, not financial advice. Do your own research. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #tariffs #chips #energy #rigcount #COT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🪙 Citi Lifts Gold Price Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty Citi raised its short-term gold outlook to $3,500/oz, citing surging safe-haven demand driven by trade instability, softening labor metrics, and heightened geopolitical risk. Risk premiums and volatility remain elevated. 📉 Equities Tumble as Risk Aversion Returns U.S. stocks slipped on renewed caution—investors rotated into bonds and precious metals following weaker job indicators and escalating trade friction. The dollar and gold strengthened, while equity futures pulled back. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, August 6: No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled for today. Markets are closely monitoring corporate earnings reports and commentary from Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly later in the day. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #currency #gold #earnings
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🔹 PBOC Moves Prompt FX Backlash On August 5, 2019, China’s central bank allowed the yuan to depreciate over 2% to its lowest level since 2008. That same day, the U.S. Treasury officially designated China as a currency manipulator, citing the PBOC’s moves as retaliation for recent U.S. tariff actions. In response, China ordered state-owned enterprises to suspend purchases of U.S. agricultural goods—a significant blow to U.S. exporters. 🔹 EU Suspends Counter-Tariffs for Six Months Following a negotiated framework with the U.S., the European Union suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for six months. The move aims to de-escalate trade tensions while joint discussions continue. 🔹 Citi Raises Gold Price Outlook to $3,500/oz Citi revised its short-term trading range for gold to $3,300–$3,600 per ounce, based on weakening U.S. labor data, rising inflation pressure from tariffs, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold traded around $3,356 oz on Monday. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, August 5: 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Trade Balance (June) Expected to improve modestly to –$67.6 billion (from –$71.5B), reflecting tariff-influenced shifts in import/export volumes. 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global U.S. Final Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July) Key indicators of service-sector strength. Readings above 50 suggest expansion; below 50, contraction. Flash estimates forecast moderated growth in activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #data #inflation #currency
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 U.S. Tariffs Finalized as August 7 Deadline Nears President Trump’s administration confirmed newly finalized tariff rates—ranging from 10% to over 40%—on dozens of countries, set to take effect starting August 7. The announcement has heightened global trade uncertainty and injected volatility into equity markets 📉 Weak Jobs Data Spurs Concern July’s nonfarm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations, while revisions to May and June data subtracted a combined 258,000 jobs. In response, the administration fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, escalating political risk around economic transparency 📈 U.S. Shows Resilience Amid Policy Chaos Despite the tariff-era turbulence and labor softness, U.S. Q2 GDP rose by 3%—outperforming forecasts. Businesses racked up inventory as a hedge, absorbing initial price shocks. Still, concerns about sustained inflation pressures and waning consumer confidence linger 🎯 Earnings Week Spotlight on Tech & Industrial Names Major companies reporting include Palantir (Monday), AMD, Uber, Disney, McDonald’s, Gilead, Pfizer, Constellation Energy, and Eli Lilly. Markets will watch for AI signals, consumer demand, and industrial trends 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, August 4 Factory Orders (June) — Critical for industrial demand and trade momentum. 📅 Tuesday, August 5 ISM U.S. Services PMI (July) — Thermometer for expansion in the biggest part of the economy. S&P U.S. Services PMI (July, flash) — Preliminary signal on service-sector strength. Trade Balance (June) — Watching for impact of tariffs and shifting cross-border flows. 📅 Thursday, August 7 Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims — Weekly labor-market readings post weak payroll report. Productivity & Labor Costs (Q2) — Reflect business efficiency and wage trend shifts. Wholesale Inventories (June) — Key for supply-chain and inventory cycle insights. Consumer Credit (June) — Measures household borrowing resilience. 📅 Friday, August 8 Fed Speech: St. Louis Fed President Musalem — Market-watchers will look for cues on the near-term rate path. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This weekly outlook is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #jobs #earnings #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates — Dissent Indicates Division The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%. Notably, two governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut, underscoring internal divisions amid growing political pressure 📈 Strong Q2 Growth, But No Rate-Cut Signal U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, rebounding sharply from Q1's contraction. Despite this, Powell emphasized persistent inflation, particularly from tariffs, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious policy stance 🛢️ Oil Climbs as Tariff Tensions Rise Brent crude rose to ~$73.51 and WTI to ~$70.37 on fears of supply disruptions tied to President Trump’s threats of new tariffs on Russian oil and new tariffs imposed on Brazil and South Korea 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 31: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 26) Initial claims rose to 222,000, up from 217,000 previously—an early gauge of labor-market trends 8:30 AM ET – Employment Cost Index (Q2) Quarterly growth in labor costs edged lower to 0.8%, down from 0.9%—a signal of moderate wage pressures 8:30 AM ET – Personal Income (June) Data released on household income and spending patterns—crucial for assessing consumer resilience heading into Q3 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🧭 Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty As the FOMC enters its July 29–30 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, even as one or two governors may dissent in favor of rate cuts amid mixed economic data. Recent strength in consumer spending contrasts with weakness in housing and construction. 🌐 U.S.–China Trade Talks Resumed in Stockholm Talks are under way aimed at extending the tariff truce before the August 12 deadline. Both sides described progress as constructive, though analysts remain cautious on the timeline and potential outcomes. 🛢️ Oil Up / Dollar Firmer, But Risks Remain Brent crude hit ~$72.50/barrel (+3.5%) while WTI rose to ~$69.20 on a mix of geopolitical tension (possible new Russia tariffs) and trade optimism. The U.S. dollar edged higher following the U.S.–EU trade agreement. 📈 IMF Revises Up Global Growth—but Flags Tariff Risks The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% and maintained 3.1% for 2026, citing pre-emptive consumer demand—but warned that ongoing U.S. tariffs and policy inconsistency could dampen momentum. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 30: FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the timing of future cuts and views on inflation and labor markets. Advance Q2 U.S. GDP Estimate The first look at Q2 growth is expected around +1.9% YoY, potentially validating a rebound after Q1’s contraction. June PCE & Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will monitor if core inflation remains elevated, which may reinforce policy caution. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #GDP #inflation #trade #tariffs #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Optimism The U.S. and EU signed a trade framework allowing a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports, averting harsher penalties. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs, supported by upbeat tech earnings sentiment—Tesla advanced on a new $16.5B AI chip deal with Samsung—while U.S.–China trade talks resume in Stockholm. Fed Likely to Hold Rates; Political Pressure Mounts The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell faces growing political pressure from President Trump to cut rates and concerns about central bank independence remain elevated. Trade Talks Extension to Avoid Tariff Hike Deadline The August 1 tariff deadline looms. Markets are watching to see if trade deals with China, Canada, and the EU extend the pause or risk new tariffs. Volume in AI/chip stocks and industrials reflects sensitivity to trade developments. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 29 FOMC Meeting Begins — All eyes on Fed rate decision and updated projections. GDP (Advance Q2 Estimate) — Expected around +1.9% on signs of economic rebound. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #tariffs #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman. 📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline. 💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 28 No major releases 📅 Tuesday, July 29 Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends. Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health. 📅 Wednesday, July 30 FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation. Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction. 📅 Thursday, July 31 June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY. Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends. Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics. 📅 Friday, August 1 July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs. Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🏔️ Copper Market Flashpoint Following President Trump’s announcement of steep copper tariffs (15–50% range), U.S. copper futures surged, then sharply reversed. Inventory arbitrage between CME and LME markets surged, distorting pricing dynamics and triggering concern over metal market stability. 🇪🇺 EU–China Summit Signals Trade Reset EU leaders concluded their 25th summit with China, fostering deeper economic and strategic ties. Observers expect follow-up on mutual trade agreements, particularly regarding tech and sustainability sectors. 🌍 EM Equity Rally Consolidates Gains Emerging markets continue to outperform global equities in 2025—with MSCI EM up ~18% vs. S&P 500. Analysts highlight strong opportunities in AI/fintech stocks in China and Latin America, suggesting further rotations out of U.S. markets. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, July 25: 8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June): Forecast shows a sharp drop (~–10%), following a ~16% gain in May—signaling possible cooling in business-related equipment purchases. 10:00 AM ET – U.S. Imports of Steel Products (June): Trade-data release monitoring steel flows amid evolving tariff frameworks. All Day – Corporate Earnings Reports: Companies such as First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), HCA, AON, Charter, and others report earnings. Outlooks may influence small- to mid-cap sentiment. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #data #earnings #commodities #EM #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🤝 U.S.–EU & U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism Lifts Sentiment The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record-high closes on July 23, fueled by optimism over a potential U.S.–EU trade deal mirroring the U.S.–Japan framework, with the EU-set tariff on autos potentially halved to 15% 💵 Dollar Retreats, Yields Climb As markets shifted toward risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields increased and gold softened, while the dollar eased—highlighting growing confidence in trade-driven growth news 🏦 Fed Independence Under Pressure—But No July Cut Expected A Reuters poll shows economists see heightened political pressure on the Fed jeopardizing its independence, though the consensus remains that rates will stay unchanged this month 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 24: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims Weekly tally of new unemployment benefit applications—key indicator of labor-market conditions. 10:00 AM ET – New Residential Sales (June) Tracks signed contracts for new homes, offering insight into housing demand under tightening mortgage rates. All Day – Trade Headlines & Fed Watch Continued focus on U.S.–EU trade developments and any follow-up to Fed independence concerns from policy circles. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #trade #economy #Fed #housing #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its optimistic view, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach 7,200 by mid‑2026. They cited strong earnings and anticipated rate cuts as key drivers, though warned of risks from rising Treasury yields and tariff-related cost pressure 📉 Inflation Debate Reignites A renewed debate is underway regarding whether tariffs are "transitory" or persistent inflation drivers. Treasury counselor Joseph Lavorgna argued tariff impacts will be one-off, while others caution long-term price pressures may persist, complicating Fed policy directions 🏛️ Calls for Fed Reform Intensify Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested structural reforms to the Federal Reserve could have greater long-term impact than removing Chair Powell, highlighting ongoing concerns over central-bank governance amid political criticism 💳 Investors Shift to Corporate Bonds As equity valuations have surged, investors are reallocating toward investment-grade corporate bonds, reducing credit spreads to the tightest levels since 1998—a sign of elevated risk appetite balanced with caution 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 23: (No major U.S. economic releases) Market focus remains on tech earnings (Tesla, Alphabet) and Fed signals following Tuesday’s Powell address. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investing decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #earnings #corporatebonds
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
XAUUSD 30M – OB Sell Limit Setup for 3R Opportunity by PhoenixFXGold 30M Chart – Smart Money Sell Limit We’re watching a clean Order Block (OB) on the 30-minute timeframe as price retraces into a key supply zone. This setup offers a high-probability reversal opportunity with a 3R risk-to-reward ratio. ✅ 📍 ENTRY: 3413 🛑 SL: 3418 (above structure) 🎯 TP1: 3408 (1R) 🎯 TP2: 3403 (2R) 🎯 TP3: 3398 (3R) The price action shows signs of exhaustion and premium pricing as it returns into a previous OB. We’re positioning with precision and tight risk. 📌 Strategy: – 30M OB zone – Clear BOS + retracement – Set & forget execution #XAUUSD #Gold #OrderBlock #SupplyZone #SmartMoney #PhoenixFX #RiskReward
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PFXteam
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚀 Tech & EV Stocks in Focus Ahead of Earnings Futures were quiet ahead of Tuesday’s open, but key movers included Astera Labs (+19%), Alphabet (+2.7%), Netflix +2%, and Robinhood –4.9% after being passed over for the S&P 500. Investors are positioning ahead of major tech and EV earnings this week — including Tesla, Alphabet, Lockheed Martin, Coca‑Cola, and Honeywell 📣 Powell Speech Eyed for Rate Clues Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 8:30 AM ET today at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in D.C. Markets will be watching for any indications on future interest rate direction 🌏 Japan’s Political Shift Has Little Market Impact Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority over the weekend, but markets remained stable as it was largely expected. The yen held steady, and Asian equities stayed calm amid the holiday—focus remains on upcoming corporate earnings 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 22: 8:30 AM ET – Powell Speech: Key address at the bank regulation conference. Tone and forward guidance may sway bond and equity markets. After Market Close – Alphabet & Tesla Earnings: Heavyweights due today—market attention will track revenue guidance, especially on advertising, EV demand, and AI. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice—consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tech #Fed #earnings #AI #infrastructure #volatility
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Chair Powell Speaks — Markets Key Into Tone Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the week’s centerpiece. Markets will be closely listening for clues on inflation strategy, rate-cut timing, and sensitivity to geopolitical inflation drivers like tariffs. 📦 Tariff Deadlines Gain Spotlight Multiple tariff deadlines are set this week for targeted trade partners including the EU, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Any new announcements or extensions could trigger volatility in trade-exposed sectors. 🛢️ Oil Market Mixed Signals Brent crude prices have stabilized near mid-$70s, but OPEC+ discussions regarding supply extensions and global growth concerns continue to inject uncertainty into energy-linked equities. 📈 Big Tech Earnings Kick Off The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants begin reporting: Nvidia leads on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta later in the week. Expect significant sentiment swings based on forward commentary. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 21 Quiet session ahead of a packed week of speeches and data. 📅 Tuesday, July 22 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June): Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes—a key housing indicator. After Market Close – Nvidia Q2 Earnings: Market will watch guidance and China commentary. 📅 Wednesday, July 23 8:30 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (June): An early gauge of U.S. economic momentum. 📅 Thursday, July 24 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Labor-market health indicator. 📅 Friday, July 25 8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June): Signals demand for long-lasting goods, often driven by business spending. 8:30 AM ET – New Home Sales (June): Follows existing home data for housing sector insight. 4:00 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole: Expect commentary on inflation, growth, and rate-path clarity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #housing #durablegoods #JacksonHole #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏢 U.S. Corp Buybacks Set to Propel Stocks Citadel Securities expects U.S. companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of stock in 2025. With the blackout period ending in August, buybacks—historically strong in July, the stock market’s best month—could bolster valuations ⚖️ Fed Independence Debate Intensifies President Trump’s continued criticism of Chair Powell has already weakened confidence in Federal Reserve autonomy. The fallout shows up in a weaker dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations—though stocks have remained resilient 🇺🇸 Immigration Rollback Sparks Economic Concern The rescinding of Temporary Protected Status for ~900,000 immigrants could remove up to 1.1 million workers from the labor force. Analysts warn of potential stagflation risks, with GDP growth potentially down 0.3–0.4 percentage points and labor-market tightening ahead 💵 Massive T-Bill Issuance Incoming Following the debt-ceiling deal, the Treasury plans over $1 trillion in T-bill issuance in the next 18 months. Money-market funds are expected to absorb much of it, influencing short-term rates and cash-market dynamics 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, July 19: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims Weekly figure on new unemployment filings—a real-time indicator of labor-market resilience. 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June) Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes; key for gauging housing-market health. All Day Events: Ongoing corporate buybacks entering open window Treasury auctions and T-bill issuance updates ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #monetarypolicy #debt #housing #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇮🇳 India–U.S. Inflation Divergence Dampens Dollar India’s June retail inflation tumbled to a six-year low, while U.S. CPI hit its fastest pace since February—driven by tariff effects. This divergence is weakening the U.S. dollar against the rupee, pushing down dollar‑rupee forward premiums 📜 Treasury to Ramp Up T-Bill Issuance Following the recent debt-ceiling increase, the U.S. Treasury plans to issue over $1 trillion in T-bills over the next 18 months. Money-market funds, flush with cash, are expected to absorb the supply, which could influence short-dated yields 💱 Dollar Eases Amid Fed-Related Volatility Headline news that President Trump “highly unlikely” to fire Fed Chair Powell, coupled with stable PPI data, calmed markets. The dollar dipped slightly after earlier turmoil, while gold and bonds saw modest gains 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 17: (No major U.S. economic releases) Markets will track T-bill issuance plans, dollar forward dynamics, and statements from the Treasury and Fed regarding debt and rate strategy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #dollar #tbills #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits ⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy 🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs 📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 16: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1% 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June) Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health Jensen Huang in Beijing Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors ⚠️ Disclaimer: This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 Dow Futures Dip on New Tariff Announcements President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, with additional duties on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures each slipped ~0.3% as markets assess inflation risk ahead of key CPI data this week 📈 Tech & AI Stocks Lead Despite Tariffs Stocks like Circle (+9.3%), CoreWeave (+5.2%), Palantir (+5%), Roblox (+5.8%), and Shopify (+4.1%) surged, showcasing sector resilience amid broader tariff fears ⚠️ Deutsche Bank Warns of Summer Volatility With thin market liquidity and rising geopolitical tension (tariff deadline Aug 1), Deutsche Bank flags summer as a period prone to sudden corrections 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 15: 8:30 AM ET – CPI (June) Core CPI is projected at +0.3% MoM (2.7% YoY) and headline CPI +0.3% MoM—signs tariff effects may be feeding into prices 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) Expected to come in around 3.0% YoY. 8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Forecast: –7.8 (less negative than June’s –16.0) — a modest sign of stabilizing factory conditions Fed Speakers Throughout the Day Watch for commentary from Fed officials (Michael Barr, Barkin, Collins, Logan) for fresh insights on inflation and monetary policy ⚠️ Market Interpretation: Inflation Watch: A hotter-than-expected CPI could delay anticipated rate cuts and lift yields. A pick-up in core CPI above 3% would be a red flag. Growth Signals: A less-negative Empire State reading may suggest improving industrial momentum but still signals contraction. Political Risk: Tariff escalation could shift investor appetite, even if markets right now are focusing on broader macro narratives. Volatility Setup: The combination of thin liquidity, tariff uncertainty, and critical data makes for a potentially choppy week. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #inflation #tariffs #Fed #CPI #manufacturing #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao