$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Friday Jan 16, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Friday Jan 16, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
🧠 AI Hardware Euphoria
TSMC earnings smash expectations as AI chip demand described as tight and insatiable
🔧 Semiconductor Capex Wave
TSMC guides higher spending, reinforcing strength across chip manufacturing supply chains
🛢️ Oil War Premium Evaporates
Crude drops sharply after geopolitical tensions ease, erasing recent risk pricing
💻 Hardware vs Software Split
AI capital continues rotating toward chips and infrastructure while software lags
🏦 Bank Rotation Shift
Investment banks rebound on dealmaking strength as consumer banks remain under pressure
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Friday Jan 16 ET
9:15 AM
- Industrial Production Dec: 0.1%
- Capacity Utilization Dec: 76.0%
10:00 AM
- Home Builder Confidence Index Jan: 40
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Macro #Earnings #AI #Semiconductors #Oil #Fed #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
Market
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Thursday Jan 15, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Thursday Jan 15, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
⚛️ Oklo Volatility Reset
Oklo stabilizes after insider-sale panic as nuclear-for-AI narrative stays dominant
🏦 Bank Stress Hangover
Banks remain under pressure as credit card rate-cap risk overwhelms earnings prints
🟡 Anti-Fiat Bid Expands
Gold silver and Bitcoin hold strength amid Fed political pressure and risk-off flows
💻 Hardware Over Software
Intel strength reinforces rotation toward physical AI infrastructure over legacy software
🛍️ Retail Fracture Signal
Saks bankruptcy raises concerns around luxury demand as value retail gains mindshare
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Thursday Jan 15 ET
8:30 AM
- Initial Jobless Claims Jan 10: 215K
- Import Prices Nov delayed: -0.2%
- Empire State Manufacturing Jan: 1.0
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Jan: -4.5
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Macro #Inflation #Jobs #Fed #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Wednesday Jan 14, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Wednesday Jan 14, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
📉 Inflation Shock Fallout
Stocks sell off after hot CPI as soft-landing narrative gets challenged
🏦 Bank Earnings Tension
Financials stay under pressure ahead of JPM earnings amid rate uncertainty
💻 Tech Rotation Signal
Adobe downgraded as capital rotates from software toward chips and power
⚛️ Nuclear Super Cycle Focus
Oklo remains center stage after Meta deal despite broad market weakness
🟡 Anti-Fiat Crosscurrents
Gold and Bitcoin stay firm as inflation limits Fed flexibility
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Wednesday Jan 14 ET
8:30 AM
- Retail Sales Nov delayed: 0.4%
- Retail Sales ex Autos: 0.3%
- PPI Nov delayed: 0.3%
- PPI YoY: 2.7%
- Core PPI YoY: 2.9%
10:00 AM
- Existing Home Sales Dec: 4.22M
2:00 PM
- Federal Reserve Beige Book
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #PPI #Inflation #Macro #Fed #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Tuesday Jan 13, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Tuesday Jan 13, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
⚖️ Fed Pressure Shock
DOJ probes Powell and Trump floats 10 percent credit card rate cap → financials react
🟡 Anti-Fiat Bid
Gold pushes to record highs amid political pressure on the Fed
⚛️ AI Nuclear Trade
Oklo pulls back on insider selling after Meta deal → nuclear for AI remains in focus
🏠 Housing Momentum
Mortgage bond buying narrative keeps homebuilders extended
🧠 AI Commerce Expansion
Alphabet crosses 4 trillion market cap on AI shopping partnerships
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Tuesday Jan 13 ET
🚩 CPI DAY
6:00 AM
- NFIB Optimism Index Dec: 99.0
8:30 AM
- CPI Dec: 0.3%
- CPI YoY: 2.7%
- Core CPI Dec: 0.3%
- Core CPI YoY: 2.8%
10:00 AM
- New Home Sales Oct: 710K
2:00 PM
- U.S. Budget Deficit Dec: -150.0B
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #CPI #Inflation #Macro #Fed #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
Gold Rebuilds Strength on H4 — New All-Time Highs Back in SightOANDA:XAUUSD on the 4-hour timeframe remains firmly embedded in a strong bullish macro structure. Despite the sharp corrective drop seen previously, price has successfully absorbed selling pressure and rebuilt a sequence of higher lows, confirming that the pullback was corrective rather than a trend reversal.
The recent recovery leg has reclaimed multiple key structure levels, with price now consolidating above the 4,470–4,490 region, a former resistance that is transitioning into support. This behavior signals bullish acceptance, not distribution. Buyers continue to step in on dips, keeping momentum constructive.
Structurally, the market is now compressing below the 4,520–4,545 resistance band, which represents the final barrier before price explores new highs. The consolidation here is healthy and typical before continuation, especially after a strong expansion leg.
Importantly, no major bearish displacement is present. Candles → pullbacks remain shallow, volume stays supportive, and downside attempts are quickly absorbed — all signs of a market preparing for another upside leg.
Bullish scenario (preferred): As long as price holds above 4,450–4,420, continuation toward 4,520, then 4,545–4,560, is favored. A clean breakout above this zone opens the path toward new all-time highs.
Bearish scenario: Only a sustained breakdown below 4,418 with acceptance would signal a deeper correction, potentially targeting 4,380–4,350. Until then, bearish moves remain corrective.
Overall, Gold is coiling beneath resistance in a bullish environment. This is not a topping structure it’s a pause before expansion. Patience favors trend continuation, with confirmation at breakout levels rather than anticipation.
$SPY & $SPX — Weekly Market-Moving Headlines Jan 12–16, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Weekly Market-Moving Headlines Jan 12–16, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
⚛️ AI Power Arms Race
Big Tech pre-buys nuclear capacity → OKLO SMR LEU sympathy stays in focus
🏠 Housing Stimulus Watch
Mortgage-bond intervention chatter → OPEN DHI LEN stay bid on rate dips
🔋 Data Center Energy Demand
Hydrogen and fuel-cell deployment accelerates → BE trend vs laggards PLUG BLDP
🧬 Obesity Biotech Optionality
Oral GLP-1 race heats up after Roche license → GPCR → VKTX read-through
🏗️ Real-World Infrastructure Spillover
AI and housing drive demand for power materials and pipes
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data and Events ET
🚩 Tuesday Jan 13 — CPI DAY
8:30 AM
CPI Dec: 0.3%
CPI YoY: 2.7%
Core CPI Dec: 0.3%
Core CPI YoY: 2.7%
10:00 AM
New Home Sales Oct: 709K
Wednesday Jan 14
8:30 AM
Retail Sales Nov delayed: 0.4%
Retail Sales ex Autos: 0.3%
PPI Nov delayed: 0.3%
10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales Dec: 4.25M
2:00 PM
Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday Jan 15
8:30 AM
Initial Jobless Claims: 220K
Empire State Manufacturing: 1.0
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0
Friday Jan 16
9:15 AM
Industrial Production Dec: 0.2%
Capacity Utilization: 76.0%
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #CPI #Inflation #Macro #Fed #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
Nifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_12-Jan-26 to 16-JanNifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_12-Jan-26 to 16-Jan-26
Nifty 25683 (Last week 26328)
Nifty lost near to 2.5% last week. Due to a new bill upto 500% tariff proposed by US for China, Brazil & India, global tensions related to US- Greenland, Iran & China- Taiwan issue.
Nifty touched 25623 and bounced back to 25683 ( Closed above 2nd Short term Support 25670 provided last week).
Market expected to dip further in the coming week but there is good short term support are there for indian market as mentioned below. It will be good opportunity for bottom fish the stocks and to buy mutual funds if it dips.
As far as India is concerned, economy is moderate, awaiting Q3 results and budget for 2026-27 to be proposed on Ist Feb 2026.
Market is in sideways and rangebound movement from Oct 2025 and created a new high 26329 two weeks before.
Multiple Short Term resistances are there from 25000 - 25670 as listed below (especially 25200 to 25450 will be major support), hence downward movement below 25000 is not expected. on Upper side nifty need to break the resistance 26328 decisively to move up to 27000 target in med-long term.
Since it is a Volatile situation SIP route or buy in multiple parcel route (On Dips) with a goal of 3-5 years ( Medium to Long term) will workout.
Diversify the portfolio with Debt and liquid fund ( approx 20-30% portfolio) and 10-20% in Gold & Silver for Year 2026, this funds ( especially liquid funds will create funds availability for further buying opportunity incase of market dips like a Systematic transfer plan.
Some of the stocks to watchout given last week are HDFC AMC, NMDC, Apar, Sharda Crop, VRL Logistics, krishna Phos chem, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Natco pharma, Apl Apollo Tubes, Muthoot Finance ( On Dips) , tata Steel ( Contra Stock due to Business Cycle), Bank of Mah, BPCL, CG Power, hero motor, shriram finance and NRB bearings. Shared for Analysis purpose only. Dr Reddy, shriram fin, natco pharma, Hero moto corp,Muthoot Finance have already given more than 10% return in this 1 month,HPCL, BPCL, IOCL, Carysil, MAS Financial Services and BSE . Waaree Energies had an IT raid in its premises in Mid of Nov 2025. Outcome will take the stock forward.
New stocks proposed for watchout for 29-Dec-25 to 02-Jan-26 is Indian Bank and NBCC, buy on dip as market in volatile situation. Both stocks reduced further and in buyable range.
New Stocks ( to watchout For Jan Ist Week 2026) are ITC can be bought as it reduced significantly last week due to rumors in increase in tax on cigrattes. Other buy stock is Lupin, Consider buying with multiple parcel while it dips.
All the above stocks can be considered slowly ( as multiple parcels) in case of stock price has fallen.
RSI, MACD, Stochastic all indicators are in oversold situation and caution to be emphasised till each indicators move past its respective signal.
Nifty Short Term Supports (Multiple Supports are there between 25000-25500):
25670 (Jun 2025 High)
25360-25420 ( Sep high and trendline support as shown in chart)
25300-25350 (Two Fibonacci resistance shown ) - Major Support
Hence 25300- 25420 acts as major short term support.
25500 ( 25441 Sep 18th 2025 High )
25450 ( 25442 is the Aug 2025 high)
25200 ( 25154 Aug 2025 high)
25000 ( Milestone)
Short Term Resistance
1.26329 ( All time High)
2. 26500
3. 26700 ( Finonacci 1.618 as shown in graph)
Medium Term Support:
1.24700 (Trend Line as shown)
2. 24000-24170 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 24116 & 24171 as shown)
3. 23500-23700 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 23608 & 23707 as shown)
2. 23000
Medium Term Resistance:
1.27000 ( Need to decisively break 26269 all time high) This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 27034
Long term resistance:
1.28000 ( Need to decisively break and move up 27000)This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 28106
Long Term Support
1.22700-23000 ( Trend line and Mar 2024 High)
2.Big support at 20000 (Sep 2023 high)
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 9, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 9, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• 🚨 Jobs Day: Payrolls, unemployment, and wages hit together — the single most important macro catalyst of the week.
• Labor cooling vs resilience: Markets assess whether hiring strength holds without reigniting wage pressure.
• Rates and risk reset: Payrolls outcome will drive front-end yields, equity multiples, and January positioning.
• Housing check: Starts and permits add context on rate sensitivity in real economy demand.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
8 30 AM — Labor and Housing
• U.S. Employment Report Dec: 73,000
• Unemployment Rate Dec: 4.5 percent
• Hourly Wages Dec: 0.3 percent
• Hourly Wages Year over Year: 3.6 percent
• Housing Starts Oct: 1.33 million
• Building Permits Oct: 1.34 million
10 00 AM
• UMich Consumer Sentiment Jan: 53.4
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #JobsReport #NFP #wages #labor #macro #markets #trading
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Jan 8, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Jan 8, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Labor check ahead of payrolls: Jobless claims act as the final labor signal before Friday’s jobs report.
• Growth efficiency read: Productivity data feeds directly into margin and inflation narratives.
• Macro breadth day: Trade deficit and consumer credit round out the growth and demand picture.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims Jan 3: 210,000
• U.S. Trade Deficit Oct: -58.4 billion
• U.S. Productivity Q3: 4.9 percent
3 00 PM
• Consumer Credit Nov: 9.2 billion
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #JoblessClaims #Productivity #macro #markets #trading #stocks
ZEC - Time to lay a bit (part.3)Our little pause from our previous zec shorts went well, its now almost back at our entry price !
4h showing a fake out with high volume and a break of a lower trendline
> thats my short signals
(sorry volume not showed here but be sure im using it)
I will TP on all the fibs retracement (same not showed on chart) and refill on shorts if I see bearish continuation !
Im playing very safe here as i expect BTC to go higher than 94 at some point
I will react on whats happening later !
Will let you know all by updating this idea
SL around 600
Cheers
S&P500 Index Guess for 2026 Using Wall Street Ests
S&P 500 Index
19 hours ago
S&P500 Index Guess for 2026 Using Wall Street Ests
1
1
Grab this chart
256
19 hours ago
Wall Street each January makes an estimate for the year ahead S&P500 Index, the largest index used for indexing returns and for managing capital. It's a fascinating practice to take a 'snapshot' of the mentality of the collective wisdom of Wall Street brokerage firms. These are the top 12 brokers in the US which guide portfolio managers globally.
I included the long term average of 9%-10% as a reference so you can see that in 2025 Wall Street was bullish and clustered right around the average return as shown by the cluster of black rectangles. Oddly, the previous year estimates seem to have a "value support" function too where the market held on the pullback in the first quarter of 2025 at the level of the 2024 guesses. See for yourself how this worked in 2025.
You can also see that the cluster of guesses around 6600 in the SPX created multiple rounds of volatility in the fall of 2025 as the market ran into selling at the "common guess level". This turbulence could have been the result of people either raising cash or rotating from growth to value stocks in the 3rd-4th quarter.
So, on initial glance for 2026, I think the mid-term elections will have the most impact on the market and the uncertainty will cause sideways action through the year and finish with a sub-average, but positive year. IF we go under 6400, then I could see the market head down to 6200-6000 where I had seen it for last year.
Either way, stay tuned as I update this "guess" along the way as I have done in years past. Overall, the batting average is quite good, but decide for yourself.
Wishing you all a healthy and successful 2026!
Tim West
January 6, 2026 2:16PM EST
(hidden since yesterday due to additional scripts accidentally left on the chart hidden)
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Jan 7, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Jan 7, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Services and labor cross-check: ADP, ISM Services, and Job Openings together shape the near-term labor and growth narrative.
• Rates sensitivity: Markets will gauge whether services strength offsets soft manufacturing momentum from earlier in the week.
• Setup into Friday jobs: Today’s data can influence positioning ahead of the official employment report.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
8 15 AM
• ADP Employment Change Dec: 48,000
10 00 AM
• ISM Services Index Dec: 52.2 percent
• Job Openings Nov: 7.6 million
• Factory Orders Oct: -1.2 percent
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #ISM #ADP #JOLTS #macro #markets #trading
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Jan 6, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Jan 6, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Quiet macro session: No major inflation or labor data ahead of Wednesday and Friday’s heavier releases.
• Services tone in focus: Final PMI helps confirm whether services momentum held up into year-end.
• Markets in reset mode: Early-year positioning and flows remain the primary driver.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
9 45 AM
• S and P Final U.S. Services PMI Dec: 52.9
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #PMI #services #markets #trading #stocks #macro
BTC Update — Rising Risk of a Pullback Toward 85KBTC Update — Rising Risk of a Pullback Toward 85K
Last update with Data proven trend.
Bitcoin is currently trading inside a strong resistance / supply zone around 93–94K, where price is starting to show signs of exhaustion after a sharp impulsive move up.
What the Chart Is Showing
📉 Rejection risk at resistance: Price is pushing into a heavy supply zone with limited follow-through.
🧱 Weak continuation structure: Momentum is slowing, and upside progress is becoming inefficient.
🔄 Distribution signals: The current range suggests potential distribution rather than accumulation.
Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
If BTC fails to hold above the 92–93K zone, a deeper correction becomes likely.
The projected move points toward the 85K area, which aligns with:
Previous demand
Liquidity resting below recent lows
A clean reset level for structure
Key Levels to Watch
93–94K: Major resistance / invalidation zone for shorts
92K: Short-term support — loss of this level increases downside momentum
85K: Primary downside target and potential bounce zone
Summary
At this stage, BTC has a high probability of rolling over from resistance.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 94K with strong volume, the path of least resistance points down toward the 85K zone.
📌 Caution is advised — this looks more like a pullback phase than a breakout continuation.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• First full week of the year: Positioning resets, fresh macro signals, and liquidity normalization after holidays.
• Growth vs labor balance: ISM, services data, and jobs will shape early 2026 rate expectations.
• Labor market focus Friday: Payrolls and wages remain the dominant macro driver for rates and equities.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Monday Jan 5
10 00 AM
• ISM Manufacturing Index Dec: 48.3 percent
• Auto Sales Dec: 15.6 million
Tuesday Jan 6
9 45 AM
• S and P Final U.S. Services PMI Dec: 52.9
Wednesday Jan 7
8 30 AM
• ADP Employment Change Dec: 45,000
10 00 AM
• ISM Services Index Dec: 52.1 percent
• Job Openings Nov: 7.7 million
• Factory Orders Oct: -1.2 percent
Thursday Jan 8
8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims Jan 3: 199,000
• U.S. Trade Deficit Oct: 58 billion
• U.S. Productivity Q3: 4.7 percent
3 00 PM
• Consumer Credit Nov: 12.4 billion
Friday Jan 9
🚩 Primary Macro Day
8 30 AM
• U.S. Employment Report Dec: 54,000
• Unemployment Rate Dec: 4.7 percent
• Hourly Wages Dec: 0.3 percent
• Hourly Wages Year over Year: 3.5 percent
• Housing Starts Oct: 1.33 million
9 45 AM
• UMich Consumer Sentiment Jan: 53.5
🧭 Trading Context
• Manufacturing still contractionary while services remain expansionary.
• Labor data Friday will set the tone for January rate expectations.
• Expect higher volatility as liquidity returns and positioning rebuilds.
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #macro #jobs #ISM #Fed #trading #stocks
Nifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_05-Jan-26 to 09-JanNifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_05-Jan-26 to 09-Jan-26
Nifty 26328 (Last Week 26042)
Long call ( Buy) was given on 12-Oct-25 at 24896, Nifty have crossed near to 1430 points.
Market is in sideways and rangebound movement from Oct 2025 and now created a new high 26329 last week. Near to 290 Points have increased.
Current Short Term Resistance 26000 (Trend line and significant support). It need to break the resistance 26328 decisively to move up to 27000 target in med-long term.
Two major incident to be watched out next week are US Capturing Venuzuela President and China conducting massive drill surrounding Taiwan after US sanctioned weapons for Taiwan. Global Concern, Q3 results, Feb Ist Budget for any reforms and Tariffs deal will decide the future path for the Nifty. Since it is a Volatile situation SIP route or buy in multiple parcel route (On Dips) with a goal of 3-5 years will workout.
Diversify the portfolio with Debt and liquid fund ( approx 20-30% portfolio) and 10-20% in Gold & Silver for Year 2026, this funds ( especially liquid funds will create funds availability for further buying opportunity incase of market dips like a Systematic transfer plan.
Some of the stocks to watchout given last week are HDFC AMC, NMDC, Apar, Sharda Crop, VRL Logistics, krishna Phos chem, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Natco pharma, Apl Apollo Tubes, Muthoot Finance ( On Dips) , tata Steel ( Contra Stock due to Business Cycle), Bank of Mah, BPCL, CG Power, hero motor, shriram finance and NRB bearings. Shared for Analysis purpose only. Dr Reddy, shriram fin, natco pharma, Hero moto corp,Muthoot Finance have already given more than 10% return in this 1 month,HPCL, BPCL, IOCL, Carysil, MAS Financial Services and BSE . Waaree Energies had an IT raid in its premises in Mid of Nov 2025. Outcome will take the stock forward.
New stocks for 29-Dec-25 to 02-Jan-26 is Indian Bank and NBCC, buy on dip as market in volatile situation.
New Stocks ( For Jan Ist Week 2026) are ITC can be bought as it reduced significantly last week due to rumors in increase in tax on cigrattes. Other buy stock is Lupin, Consider buying with multiple parcel while it dips.
As RSI is slighly improved 62% (58%) and MACD just cross the signal line, caution to be emphasized due to global political tension, though the strategy continued to buy for long.
Nifty Short Term Supports (Multiple Supports are there between 25000-25500):
25850 (Trend line shown)
25670 (Jun 2025 High)
25360-25420 ( Sep high and trendline support as shown in chart)
25300-25350 (Two Fibonacci resistance shown ) - Major Support
Hence 25300- 25420 acts as major short term support.
25500 ( 25441 Sep 18th 2025 High )
25450 ( 25442 is the Aug 2025 high)
25200 ( 25154 Aug 2025 high)
25000 ( Milestone)
Short Term Resistance
1.26329 ( All time High)
2. 26500
3. 26700 ( Finonacci 1.618 as shown in graph)
Medium Term Support:
1.24700 (Trend Line as shown)
2. 24000-24170 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 24116 & 24171 as shown)
3. 23500-23700 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 23608 & 23707 as shown)
2. 23000
Medium Term Resistance:
1.27000 ( Need to decisively break 26269 all time high) This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 27034
Long term resistance:
1.28000 ( Need to decisively break and move up 27000)This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 28106
Long Term Support
1.22700-23000 ( Trend line and Mar 2024 High)
2.Big support at 20000 (Sep 2023 high)
BOME Reclaim Attempt After Descending Channel BreakBOME spent an extended period trading inside a well-defined descending channel following a sharp sell-off. Price has now broken above the lower channel boundary and is attempting to reclaim structure, signaling a potential shift from pure continuation to a recovery phase.
Currently, price is holding above the recent local support zone around zero point zero zero zero six three. As long as this level is defended, upside continuation toward the mid and upper channel resistance becomes possible, with the next major resistance sitting near zero point zero zero zero eight one.
If price fails to hold this reclaimed area and slips back below the recent support, the move would be classified as a failed reclaim, and continuation toward lower demand zones remains likely.
This setup is driven by descending channel dynamics, support reclaim behavior, and post-break stabilization. Confirmation above reclaimed structure is required before stronger continuation.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 2, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 2, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• First trading day of the year: Thin liquidity + positioning resets can exaggerate moves.
• Manufacturing tone check: PMI helps frame growth momentum heading into the first full trading week of 2026.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
9 45 AM
• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 51.7
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #PMI #markets #trading #stocks #macro
BTCUSD.P — Wick Above High ≠ Bullish Break of Structure📌 BTCUSD.P — Wick Above High ≠ Bullish Break of Structure
Timeframe: 15m
Market: BTC Perpetual (Bybit)
🧠 Key Observation
Price did not break structure bullishly here.
Although BTC wicked above the prior high, there was no full-bodied close above the previous high’s wick. That distinction matters.
A wick alone shows reach.
Structure requires acceptance.
🔍 What This Means
The prior high was tested and liquidity was taken
Buyers failed to secure a close above resistance
Price immediately stalled rather than expanding
This behavior is consistent with a liquidity sweep, not a confirmed bullish shift in market structure.
⚠️ Why Early Longs Are Dangerous Here
Entering long on the first touch or wick break:
Assumes continuation before confirmation
Exposes the trade to a sweep-and-reverse scenario
Treats intent as fact
In this context, an early long can easily become exit liquidity.
✅ What a Real Bullish Break Would Require
For this to qualify as a valid Bullish BoS:
A decisive candle body close above the previous high’s wick
Follow-through or acceptance above the level
No immediate reclaim back below resistance
Until then, structure remains unbroken.
🧭 Execution Guidance
Patience > prediction
Let the market prove acceptance
If price reclaims the level with strength, bias can flip
If price rejects, the sweep thesis gains validity
Structure is not about being early.
It’s about being right after confirmation.
🧾 Final Thought
Wicks hunt liquidity.
Bodies establish control.
Knowing the difference keeps you solvent.
❗ Disclaimer
Educational purposes only.
Not financial advice.
QQQ channel breakout volume analysisEvery time price breaks below this uptrend channel, the volume is getting lower and lower and today, the volume is almost like nothing. I think this means that smart money has bought as much as they can from the weak hands. Retail traders shorted each time it broke below while smart money has bought from them and most retail traders will have their stop at the highs. Smart money will push prices to new highs forcing retail shorts to buy and retail longs will also buy on the breakout. This will provide the liquidity needed for large traders to sell into. Maybe they will gap prices up on the news to end the uptrend and cause urgency for retail traders to buy at the top.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Thin year-end liquidity: Last full trading day of the year — moves can look exaggerated on light volume.
• Labor data check-in: Jobless claims remain one of the few real-time macro reads as markets close out 2025.
• Positioning over fundamentals: Window dressing, tax considerations, and book-closing flows matter more than narratives today.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 27): 220,000
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #JoblessClaims #YearEnd #Markets #Trading
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Fed minutes day: Markets parse December FOMC minutes for confirmation on rate-path confidence and inflation risks.
• Housing and activity check: Home prices and Chicago PMI give late-cycle reads on demand and regional momentum.
• Thin year-end liquidity: Expect exaggerated moves on headlines due to low participation.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
9 00 AM
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct): 1.1 percent
9 45 AM
• Chicago Business Barometer PMI (Dec): 36.3
2 00 PM
• Minutes of the December FOMC Meeting
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #FOMC #FedMinutes #housing #PMI #markets #trading






















