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Mini-futures

ES (S&P500) - Analyses - Breakout or Breakdown Plan (Sep 9)S&P 500 E-mini (ES) keeps ranging inside 6,490–6,505, with repeated taps of 6,516 above and 6,490–6,496 below. Tomorrow I’m stalking a box resolution during the AM session, then a second chance in the PM window. Key Zones Resistance: 6,505–6,516 (NYPM/NYAM lid). Above it: 6,541.25 (PDH) → 6,547.75 (IBH). Support: 6,495–6,490 (NYAM/NYPM floor). Below it: 6,481.0 → 6,471.5 (hard pools). Range to watch: 6,490–6,505 (decision box). Game Plan (structure-first) LONG (breakout-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close > 6,505–6,516. 2. Retest 6,501–6,503 (OB/FVG/OTE) and hold. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,541.25, TP2 6,547.75, TP3 6,555+. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body back ≤ 6,500 after breakout. SHORT (breakdown-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close < ~6,496. 2. Retest 6,498–6,500 (failed reclaim) and roll. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,481.0, TP2 6,471.5, TP3 6,464–6,465. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body ≥ 6,500 after fill. Timing windows Primary: 09:30–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET (trade management only in between). We are currently consolidating below 6,516, with a clear liquidity ladder leading to PDH 6,541.25 if the movement is accepted. If it fails, we have stacked support levels around 6,481 and 6,471 that typically attract price action once 6,496 breaks down. Please confirm with ES and NQ: we want both indices to move in sync (no bearish signs of market tension on longs, and no bullish signs of market tension on shorts). What could affect ES tomorrow? NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug): 6:00 AM ET. API crude inventories (for CL correlation): Tuesday around 4:30 PM ET. (For Wednesday's context: EIA petroleum report at 10:30 AM ET.)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2024-10-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not getting any follow through. Bulls at least closed it above the daily 20ema, so we are still inside the bullish patterns and upwards is more likely than down. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Also nested triangles, so not much difference to dax. Market closed in the middle of it, which is also the open of the week around 20400. Here market is absolutely in balance and it’s the worst place to trade. Market closed where it opened, so don’t put too much thought into today. Mark the triangles on your chart and wait for the breakout tomorrow or fade the extremes. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested triangles on 1h chart) key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls want 21000 again. They bought where they had to at the bull trend line and we should not drop below 20260 again or bulls might seriously doubt their case. Confirmation for bulls is only above 20700. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bears need follow through selling below 20000 and I highly doubt they can get it. If they do, this bull trend is over and the highs are probably in. For now Bears trying to keep this inside the triangle and below 20700. Trading range price action so I will spare you more words. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: Neutral medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying EU session as dax.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this. Quote from last week: comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. comment : Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5800 - 6000 bull case: Bulls know technically we are at the top of them all and the rally is on it’s last legs. Big round numbers are still just too good to not hit if history tells us anything. Bears are not doing anything and not enough bulls are taking profits, so the market only knows one direction. As long as we are staying above the two bull trend lines that are closest, bulls are good and we continue. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears are not doing enough. They have many reasonable targets below but what good are those if the 4h 20ema keeps getting bought almost the entire week? Can you sell new highs for a scalp? Sure. Bears need anything below 5800 to start having arguments. Reasonable scalp is probably a break below 5850 for 5800 but as of now, there isn’t much more to expect for Monday. I am open to surprises though. Overall I just doubt many bears want to short 5900 when they know everyone wants to see 60000 and there is much more value to short there. Invalidation is above 6050. outlook last week: short term: Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. → Last Sunday we traded 5859 and now we are at 5906. Neutral wasn’t too bad since market made 60 points on the week. Wasn’t good either, I know. short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted the many bull trend lines to show it’s pure guesswork which one will be respected. All are valid until clearly broken. Big dotted means that the pattern is on the weekly or monthly chart, and some breaks above are tolerable and do not mean the pattern is invalid. Close is always close enough.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath. comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5900 bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it. What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else. Invalidation is above 5910. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it. → Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook. short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update : None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again. sp500 e-mini futures Here is the quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025. current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again. key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200. Pullback targets above are 19600-19700 Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-20 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Interesting trading day to say the least. Globex rallied 27 points to 5587 where it stalled for couple of hours and then before US opened the floodgates were opened. Just strong selling throughout the day with huge bull spikes in between. Bears accomplished a drop of 23 points from open to close, that’s just weak but Globex high to daily low was 62 points. The 15m 20ema was decent today and bulls kept it above the important bull trend line and still far above the daily ema which is at 5450, so 100 points to go. Market has formed a triangle at the lows, which will probably just break out sideways in the Globex and EU session. Since tomorrow is Globex, I have no opinion on where we close the week tbh. Rough guess is at least a close below 5560 but I prefer a close below the bull trend line and below 5500 but that’s low probability. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5600 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 5540 which is my big orange support line. If they fail here, they will most likely also fail at the bull trend line and then 5480/5500 will come fast. Bulls bought every new low today and made money on lower time frames but they could not close above the 15m 20ema. That will be their first target for tomorrow and then above the 1h ema. I expect a pullback tomorrow and depending on how strong it is, another leg down or total melt up to 5600 into opex. Invalidation is below 5520. bear case: Bears had a decent day today. Naturally they want a second leg down, which would bring us to around 5460/5470, which would be my preferred close of this week. Since we are at bigger support, I don’t have much confidence in the bears. Need to see tomorrows price action in EU session. Invalidation is above 5560. short term: Neutral here between 5520 - 5560, bullish above and bearish below medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting every pullback near the 15m ema was decent.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside. So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below. We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: “Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.” → Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was. short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months. current swing trade: None Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks. Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5300 - 5600 bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
202409 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market keeps going because it keeps working. Bears need to generate more selling pressure and trap bulls who bought too high but right now they still can just every dip and make money. sp500 Quote from last week: Last week i drew a two legged (ABC) correction when we traded at 5042 and it was deeper and then higher than anticipated but other than that, a pretty perfect forecast so far. Meaning i still think we are in the second leg down and it will probably hit at least the daily 20ema at around 4970. Low of the week was 4960. That’s is as perfect of a weekly outlook as it get’s. Was i absolutely flabbergasted by the 160 point gain after that? You bet. Can you say i was wrong in my outlook last week? I also wrote short term: down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case For dax my outlook was completely trash but sp500 i nailed it. Let’s view ahead. bull case: Same for dax, hard to come up with higher targets. Most reasonable thing here would be to look for pullbacks and if they are bought, hop along. BTFD has not stopped working for a long time, even though they got a bit bigger, it was not enough so far. I draw something into the chart in case of measured moves but given so many trend lines we are at and the extreme of this move, i can’t see it but market has the ability to go way way beyond what’s reasonable (looking at you NVIDIA. couple more up days and that stock might be the first 10 trillion $ company and you be sure, you will find humans who will go in front of a camera and say why this stock is reasonably priced based on fundamentals, just like they did in 2000). bear case: Bears need way more to stop the BTFD mania. The market is overbought and everyone knows it, that does not help in structuring good short trades, since this buying could continue. Bears need prices below 4931 to make lower lows, that is pretty far away. Best they can probably get is a trading range at the highs. Their first target is the daily 20ema around 5000 and i expect bulls to buy there again. outlook last week: “down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case” → Last Sunday we traded 5014 and now we are at 5101. Market hit my target +10 points. That was +44 if you will. short term: sideways is the best bears can hope for. bulls could also just moon this further. if you read this and think: “so this jack is saying it can go up or down?!” yes bro and now come’s the important distinction: i tell you i’m neutral here and wait for the market to show me further price action and evaluate with hopefully a higher certainty the next profitable trade. right now at 5101 is the absolute worst place to enter a trade. tl;dr: wait for more price action. i lean bearish but bears have done nothing late Friday so i wait. medium-long term: same as dax. my thesis had 5100 as invalidation and now i wait for the monthly close first
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today. Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout. bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them. bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD. short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Monday 1.30.23 PrepThis week we find ourselves opening right against bigger resistance area of 4120-4080, its a big market moving data week which will bring in volume. Lots of traders are looking for this to either reverse hard or keep going to 4150-4200-4300 those two are great options and another is to use this to maybe shake things up on both sides. It feels like there is still more covering to do and at the same time we are at an area of bigger supply which warns us of uncertainty. We have been making some big moves and maybe we found a location to range a little bit? Do some cleaning and get ready for next step? We will have to see what action we get this week but if that turns out the case then will be looking at 4120-4000 as our bigger range for now until we fully break through either side. Areas to watch tonight are 4084-77 // 4061-56, If we completed our business over 84 for now and trapped that supply then we will want to buy it back cheaper. If we cant get back over 84-77 that might give us a test of Fridays low and that 4061-56 level to see if we can shake things up and from there will have to watch it level to level with our potential support being at 4046-42 and lower with T2 Low being right at 4030-25 Support. Thinking that if we stay in this bigger range then we might get some good two way trading this week because of this indecision with buyers under 4000 and sellers over 4100 but also a chance to see quick reversals. We are currently accepted in 4077-4030 area and Friday move was a stop run but we have to watch if we build structure around it then get back over it. Levels to Watch: Daily Resistance 4120-4084 Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4103-4100 // 4084-77 Daily Support 4012-3990 Intraday 4061-56 // 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
#ES_F Wednesday 01.25.23 Overview Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was 4012-08 which we could see pre market that we were holding above, when opened we did failure to break the first sign that level is holding then look below and come back in was the main trade for the day which got us back to overnight supply where we found more sellers and went sideways again over VWAP selling over 4030. Great day, support provided great trades, second half of the day was the hardest today. Overview: We had an interesting open today, we closed RTH with a stop run over 4046-42 and over 5 hours of selling over Vwap. Opened and drove under that consolidation area trapping the longs making it our supply area going forward. This can be a good chance to see if we have enough supply to break todays low and get more people to sell some, under Previous Low we have our next Potential Support at 3995-89 with has T2 low and position below it, if we have enough selling we can see that area tested but overall we are inside T2 range, judging from todays action we still have shorts trying to cover so I wont be surprised if we still do a test of Monday high and area above it. We have to see what Globex does, for the upside to happen we will have to look strong below 4012-08 and 3094 if we get under them and get back over 4030-25 for final confirmation. If we get below 3994-89 and hold under it that changes things, until then we can still get good amount of short covering and a run into a supply zone, longer we hold over this area and over the trendline more customers we can have. Levels to Watch: 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 Not looking to hold too much above last night unless showing good strength because its bigger supply area. If selling is strong but not strong enough to get under T2 Low and not enough buying to get over and hold 4030 Then potential for inside day between 4030-4000
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Corn Mini Futures ( XC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Mini Futures ( XC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 699.3 Pivot: 661.20 Support: 654.20 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, price has tested the 1st resistance line at 699.3 multiple times where the 20% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Price then retraced downwards with price under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Expecting price to continue bearish and head towards the pivot at 661.2 where the previous low, 100% Fibonacci line and 78.6% Fibonacci projection lines are located. Alternative scenario: Price may go back up and close above the 1st resistance level. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Short
by Genesiv