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MNQ1!

Final sell off ahead of FOMC | Head n ShouldersI believe price will stage one final sell-off before resuming its push toward higher highs. On the 4H chart, a potential Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, suggesting price may fill the hourly gap at 24,856 before or during the FOMC release. The 15-minute chart offers a more precise entry compared to the 1H and 4H timeframes. I plan to enter within the 25,149–25,150 price range, provided my bias remains valid heading into the New York open. Lets get it!⚡
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by GeneralJWS
2
A look at the MES1! (SPX)Chart Time Frame: 1 Hour Current Price: 6763 after setting recent ATH at 6800 Daily Candle: Top Heavy Doji with open / close entire in the body of previous candle. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis EMA 8 (thin cyan): ~6733 – Above price. Negative Slope. EMA 21 (med cyan): ~6775 – Above price and EMA 8. Negative Slope. Rotation zone created on 1H and lower TF (EMA 8 crossed EMA 21). Crossover has not happened on higher TF's at time of post. EMA 50 (thick cyan): ~6765 – Above current price; Flattening out. Structure: Bullish Trending since April lows. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 43 (57 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weakening. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: 1; Signal Line: 4.2; Histogram: -3.2 Interpretation: MACD is growing bearish, histogram showing increasing intensity, yet still above 0. 🎯 Key Levels Support: various possible trend lines shown (Purple). Price action Monday will determine their validity. Swing low at 6681. Resistance: Overhead moving averages. ATH at 6800. 🧨 Volatility Outlook VIX - After a decline, showing signs of inflection. Currently trending upwards on the daily TF. Government shutdown and headline risk are of some concern to short term price action. Short Term: A sudden opening of the government could certainly cause a bullish event. I could also imagine certain headlines that would cause a short term bearish event. Longer term: govt shut downs have typically preceded bullish gains. 📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: We are in between earnings seasons and with a Gov shutdown, void of Gov Data. DXY - Pulled back significantly this year. I personally expect it to continue. This could provide a tail wind to equities pricing. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Wednesday - 3PM EST - FOMC Minutes. Dot Plot could cause some action as the minutes are dissected. Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. A big miss (up or down) could cause some action. 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Long bull run - might be getting stale; Might just be getting started. You decide. 🧩 Momentum: Very high on longer TFs, Turning down on the lower. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term - I love a 'rotation zone trade'. If price bounces back up into the EMA 21/8 spread zone, I would be looking for some day trade shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
Is Nasdaq still Bullish?I’m still sensing bullish momentum on Nasdaq. My expectation is for price to retrace back into this week’s NWOG before making a push toward last week’s NWOG and the 1-hour gap at 23,583.00. There’s also a possibility we dip to fill the gap at 23,400.00 first, but if that scenario plays out, I don’t see price maintaining its bullish momentum afterward. On the weekly chart, price continues to strongly respect the Bullish OB formed in the first week of August. As long as this level holds, I expect momentum to carry us higher in the near term. We'll see tomorrow morning⚡
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by GeneralJWS
2
NQ Short Bias: Previous NWOG RejectionI missed today’s sell-off by 60 ticks, but price respected Monthly Open support and retraced back near intraday highs. That reaction reinforces my bias: I’m still anticipating the dump that will likely happen tomorrow. Ideally, price completes the Double Top within the prior NWOG zone, then falls slightly before or exactly at NY Open for a clean downhill ride. My entry will be at 23,685.00 Target will be around the low 23,300.00s I feel like we can definitely fall further than my target, so I will have trailing Stop in place once price reaches my target. Lets see how this goes⚡
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by GeneralJWS
Calm Before a StormSince the post-COVID period, we have not seen such a gentle and continuous uptrend. This phenomenon reminds me of the market before the COVID meltdown. How do I going to interpret this "Gentle & Continuous Uptrend" move? My answer: Cautiously bullish Back then, market was cautiously bullish because COVID seemed to be contagious. It has triggered. Now, market is cautiously bullish because tariffs appear to be deepening inflation. With slowing job numbers, this is becoming a bigger concern. Will it trigger? Mirco Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
1
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! Happy Friday, folks! Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k). Other key labor market indicators were as follows: • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%) • US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%) • US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%) • US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%) Data and Key Events Recap: What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline. U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2. Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993. Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference: • On current policy stance: “We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.” Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate. • On labor market risks: “By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.” • On inflation and tariffs: “It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.” Trade Headlines: US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%. The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage. Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025. The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook? Market Implications Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them. Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve? Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill. This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year. Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
MNQ Short @robby.tradez price looking to fill imbalance from yesterdays late New York session - what inspired the trade? I run a checklist of confluences when trading this asset, it is either I compare it with CME_MINI:MES1! or DXY as of now MNQ is below my daily open so it lets me know sellers are in control as well as using the volume profile gives me more confirmation, also pairing it with DXY then we have more reason why I took the trade \\ RR 1:4 I generally aim for 4% on a trade like this because it passes as a high probability trade A SETUP
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by RobbyTradez
Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1! This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds. Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks. US - EU Trade Deal: • US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system. • Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt. • EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG. • Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively. • Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably. • The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament. China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council. South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package. UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia. Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada Key Economic Data Releases: Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates. Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2 Supply: 7-Year Note Auction Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference. Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun) Japan: BoJ Press Conference Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations. It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule . Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening. As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.” In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026. Institutional View: Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to: • Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration • Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades • Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including: • Twin deficits (fiscal + current account) • Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status • USD hedging activity picking up by international investors • Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Market Outlook: E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures NQCME_MINI:NQ1! It’s a quiet week for US economic news. However, the RBA and RBNZ are scheduled to announce interest rate decisions. As has been the theme this year, markets remain highly sensitive to headline news and associated risks. US President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law at the White House. Treasury Secretary Bessent is currently giving an interview on CNBC as we write this outlook. Explanation of the near-term impact of Trump’s BBB Act, tariffs, and trade deals will be key to monitor, as this may be fuel for further movement. The US is set to announce more trade deals in the next 48 hours, while trading partners who did not reach a deal will revert to April 2nd tariff levels, with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st. As many as 100 smaller countries will get a set tariff rate. How does this all translate into price action and expectations for the market? NQ and ES are currently trading near all-time highs. RTY has potential upside as it plays catch-up. With the BBB Act signed into law, many of the investment banks anticipate a near-term positive impact on GDP. In NQ, we are looking at the following scenarios: Key LIS zone: 22860.50 – 22825.50 Support Zone: 22600 – 22582.25 Key Support Zone: 22000 – 22050 Scenario 1: Hold above key LIS In this scenario, we expect new ATHs and continuing price discovery higher. Scenario 2: Hold below key LIS In this scenario, we expect the price to re-test the support zone at 22600 – 22582.25 and consolidate to build value higher. A break below support may lead to further short opportunities to retest the 22000 level.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Potential Head and Shoulders PatternHow to identify head and shoulders patterns? We’ll use the current example from the Nasdaq or the US markets. We can quite clearly observe that a potential head and shoulders formation is developing. This means that if the price breaks below the neckline, we may see a deeper correction from the April low. I will go through the rules on how to identify a head and shoulders formation. We will also cover how to recognize when the pattern is invalid — meaning the market may continue pushing above its all-time high. Finally, we’ll discuss how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Let’s first go through the rules of identifying head and shoulders with rules stated. Next, how to recognize when the pattern is invalid, the market continues pushing above its all-time high. The key is in the closing price above the all-time high. Lastly, how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Of course, we can wait for the break to come as a confirmation, but usually I would like to be a little more active than being passive. So this is just for your reference. It may not be for everyone. This is where I always get into its micro view by first acknowledging where is the macro is, which we had just discussed. Please refer to the following video: So what do you think that the market likely or unlikely to fulfill this head and shoulders set-up? I’d like to hear your thoughts on this. Micro Nikkei Futures Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow