Monthly Outlook – September 2025 📊 Monthly Outlook – September 2025 (XAUUSD)
Hello traders,
Gold closed August with a strong full-body bullish candle above 3440, pressing into premium territory. The absence of a lower wick highlights dominant buyer control, but the market is extremely stretched compared to its dynamic supports. September will be decisive: either continuation into fresh highs, or a corrective retracement back into structural demand.
🔹 Monthly Structural Zones
Monthly Supply 3460–3500 → premium supply, untested liquidity pocket where sellers may attempt control.
Monthly Liquidity Wick 3250–3120 → not an Order Block, but a deep liquidity sweep where institutions previously accumulated.
Monthly Demand 2800–2850 → major accumulation area + last higher low on monthly structure.
🔹 EMA Confluence (Monthly)
EMA 5 → tightly riding price, confirming bullish momentum.
EMA 21 → around 2800, aligning with monthly demand (key confluence if pullback).
EMA 50 → 2200, long-term support.
EMA 100 → 1843, mid-term anchor.
EMA 200 → 1578, ultimate macro support.
💡 Interpretation: Price is extremely extended above all EMAs. A healthy retracement toward EMA 21 (2800) is possible if momentum slows, but as long as candles close above EMA 5, bulls remain in full control.
🔹 Progression Map
Bullish path (continuation):
Break & hold above 3460–3500 → opens 3550–3600.
If momentum persists → expansion toward 3700–3720.
Monthly close above 3720 confirms price discovery into new ATH territory.
Bearish path (retracement):
Rejection at 3460–3500, slip under 3400 → first correction toward 3320.
If downside continues → test into 3250–3120 liquidity wick (expect liquidity sweep & re-accumulation, not clean OB mitigation).
If 3120 fails → deeper move toward 2850 demand, where EMA 21 adds strong confluence.
🔹 Macro Context
Dollar strength and global bond yields remain the main driver.
Gold’s parabolic climb increases the chance that September prints at least a corrective wick.
Institutions may revisit the liquidity wick 3250–3120 for re-accumulation if a deeper pullback sets in.
🔹 Monthly Bias – September 2025
Primary Bias: Bullish → above 3300, gold remains in strong uptrend with EMA 5 support.
Neutral → if price consolidates between 3400–3300 after rejection from 3460–3500.
Bearish shift → only if the monthly candle closes below 3120, opening the way to 2850 (EMA 21 confluence).
✨ What do you think about this September map? Drop your thoughts below don't forget to 🚀🚀🚀 and follow GoldFxMinds 👇 and let’s get ready for the big monthly battle 🚀
