Microsoft (MSFT)
Has $MSFT topped? NASDAQ:MSFT looks like it has put in a top up at the $555 level.
This is actually one of the most bearish looking charts as I think there's potentially a longer term top being put in here.
I think it's possible that price goes to at least the $287 level, but potentially all the way down to the lower supports in the low $100s before it can see a sustained bounce.
MSFT: The “Top Pick” Trap? Or Real Breakout Fuel?Microsoft is testing a critical support zone — and with Morgan Stanley just naming it a top pick in tech, buyers may be gearing up for control. 📈
Quantitative stats back the setup: Sortino Ratio of 0.42 and 90% win rate on this pattern.
👉 What’s your call — breakout to new highs… or one more dip before the rally?
Microsoft Is Finishing Wave 4 CorrectionMicrosoft is in a wave 4 correction, and once it's fully completed, it can extend the rally within wave 5 from a technical point of view and according to Elliott wave theory.
Microsoft is a global technology company founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen in 1975. It’s best known for its Windows operating system, Microsoft Office suite, and cloud platform Azure. Over the years, Microsoft has expanded into gaming (with Xbox), professional networking (LinkedIn), and AI (through partnerships like OpenAI). Today, it’s one of the world’s most valuable and influential companies, shaping software, hardware, and cloud computing industries.
Microsoft reported earnings last Wednesday after the close, with the price turning lower after reaching new highs. The structure still appears to be a wave four in progress — a flat correction where the current drop likely represents wave C. Wave C often stabilizes near wave A levels, suggesting support around 492 and 468 (the former 2024 high). Holding this zone could set up the next rebound into the final higher-degree wave five.
Highlights:
Trend: Corrective phase, wave C of flat in progress
Potential: Rebound toward new highs once support holds
Support: 492 / 468
Invalidation: Below 394
Note: Watch for stabilization at support before potential wave five continuation
MICROSOFT may fall to $450 if this Support breaks.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a 4-year Channel Up since the November 22 2021 High. Last week it got rejected exactly on its July 28 2025 Resistance (which was a Higher High for the Channel Up) and formed a Double Top, which continues to decline this week as well.
With its 1W RSI also displaying a Bearish Divergence (since the July High) similar to past sell alerts within this Channel Up, it is possible for the stock to correct to at least $450, which represents the 0.5 Fibonacci level where the previous July 2024 - March 2025 correction found Support. That was just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which also priced the bottom of the October 31 2022 Low but that correction was -38.69%, considerably stronger that -26.54%, which is also plausible if 2026 is a Bear Cycle.
The level that has confirmed those two correction Sell Signals within this Channel Up has been the 1D MA150 (red trend-line). On both occasions, Microsoft closed a 1W candle below the 1D MA150 and confirmed the correction, something that hasn't happened at any other time during these 4 years.
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MSFT Bearish: H&S Breakdown Eyes 455–465 SupportMicrosoft (MSFT) just cracked lower from a three-month range. After topping near 560 in early August, price chopped between 500 support and 530 resistance before breaking beneath the 20/60-day MAs and the neckline at 510–515. It’s now pressing the 120-day MA around 502 with expanding volatility and heavy sell volume—classic signatures of a confirmed head-and-shoulders top.
Primary path: favor fades into resistance and breakdowns. A weak bounce that stalls inside 515–525 (neckline retest) keeps the short idea intact; a break-and-daily-close below 502 unlocks 490 first, then the 455–465 demand zone. Tactically, shorts can also lean on an intraday trigger (e.g., 1H close below 512) with stops tightened if momentum accelerates. Invalidation for shorts is clean: a daily close back above 531, which would neutralize the breakdown.
Alternative: if 502 holds and buyers reclaim the range, a daily close above 530–531 would negate the bearish structure and open a squeeze toward 555–560. Bulls still have work to do while price sits below the falling 20/60-day MAs and the 530 ceiling.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
Rebound Setup: Limit-Buy after Short-Term Exhaustion (MSFT)Hi Traders
This is a systematic mean-reversion setup I use across liquid ETFs and large-cap equities.
The goal is simple: enter weakness into exhaustion, not falling knives.
I will place a limit order for MSFT at $511.86. If the order remains unfilled, I will cancel it at the close of trading tomorrow.
Key Concepts:
Oversold short-term conditions
Price deviation vs recent mean
Volume/volatility context
Limit order for the next session only when criteria align
Exit next session open (or rules-based exit, depending on version)
I don’t chase dips — I predefine levels and only enter when price comes to me. This trade idea triggered a limit buy level for today on EFA at 93.55.
General notes:
Works best in mean-reverting environments
Avoid news catalysts & low-liquidity names
This is not a signal service — just a research-based framework
If you like data-driven, rule-based setups, follow along —
I will share more systematic edge ideas like this.
Why MSFT Could Be a Smart Pick in 2025?MSFT has bullish signals from the multiple moving averages, RSI and volume analysis. However, wave principle asks evidence from the buyers. The wave count suggests that the corrective wave (B) is ongoing, and bears will control the final wave of the primary wave 3.
Wave C will start falling nearby the supply zone and high of the 2nd wave of wave intermediate wave A. Wave C can fall up to 476 which will be the strength for wave primary wave 5. As per the chart, breakout above 540 will be a good signal for bulls to take charge back.
Zones:
Supply zone: 538 - 528
Demand zone: 482 - 476
I will update the chart and details shortly.
Microsoft: Wave X Top Confirmed! As primarily anticipated, Microsoft shares recently reached the high of turquoise wave X just below resistance at $562.17 before quickly reversing lower. This decline, part of the same-colored wave Y, is likely to bottom within our magenta long Target Zone between $477.87 and $451.84, where we also expect the low of magenta wave (4). In our view, this range presents attractive opportunities for long positions, as we anticipate a renewed upward move during magenta wave (5) to follow. This rally should push price above the $562.17 resistance and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, we see a scenario in which the high at $562.17 marked only the end of beige wave alt.III (probability: 36%). In this case, a drop below the $392.97 support would be expected to form the low of wave alt.IV.
Today's Market Wrap: Fed, Gold, and Earnings – 29/10/2025The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the lowest level since 2022. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible pause in further rate cuts for the rest of the year. Still, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 1%, both hitting fresh record highs.
Gold remained flat at $3,950 an ounce after Powell warned that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Potential progress on the US-China trade framework has also reduced some safe-haven demand.
In corporate earnings, Microsoft beat expectations but saw a ~2.5% drop in after-hours trading due to a slight miss in cloud revenue. Meta posted strong results but fell ~8% after hours, driven by concerns over capital expenditure. Alphabet exceeded earnings and revenue forecasts, with strong performance across Search, YouTube, and Cloud, sending shares up ~5% in after-hours trading.
Microsoft’s Higher Trough Hints at a Bullish LegWe believe Microsoft (MSFT) has formed a higher trough - a bullish sign. Its EMAs have crossed positively, and the RSI has moved above 50, signalling improving momentum. If the RSI holds above that level, it will confirm a strengthening trend that could see MSFT challenge resistance near $530.
The company reports next Wednesday after the close, with investor attention centred on Azure and Copilot - the pillars of its AI strategy. Copilot, now embedded across Microsoft 365, Teams, and Outlook, is gaining strong enterprise adoption; for instance, Barclays recently expanded its licences from 15,000 to 100,000. The AI assistant could generate billions in recurring revenue, while Azure - which grew 39% year-on-year last quarter, its fastest pace in three years - remains the primary growth driver. Sustained progress in both areas will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence.
Although momentum has yet to reach full strength for a decisive breakout, it is clearly building. Next week’s earnings could provide the catalyst needed to push it over that threshold.
Microsoft: New Target Zone in PlaySince our last update, Microsoft shares have continued to decline, but there is still potential for an upside move. We do not yet consider the turquoise wave X to be complete. Once its high is established below the resistance at $562.17, we expect price to head lower toward the wave Y low. Our revised magenta long Target Zone is set between $477.87 and $451.84. The formation of this low should also mark the completion of magenta wave (4). Afterward, we anticipate the start of a new upward impulse within wave (5), which should push the stock above the $562.17 resistance and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, we assign a 36% probability to a scenario in which the recent high at $562.17 marked the end of beige wave alt.III . In this case, a decline below the support at $392.97 would be expected, forming the low of wave alt.IV .
Crypto = Stocks, saying this since 2021Sorry for not posting as much
Want more? A lot more? See profile for more info.
Until we see a significant shift and change to our theses since 2021 >Crypto = Stocks. People were clamoring institutions. When big boys come to the party things change. Deal with that now. It is not the same game.
Since 2021 we've been saying that Crypto was no longer the same and that it turned into a similar asset as stocks.
Since then the top 10 have done well & most coins, especially after top 25, have suffered.
See the following charts to compare. Not in any order.
It's kind of like NASDAQ:NDX index vs CRYPTOCAP:BTC index.
Then the largest tech companies vs the largest Crypto.
NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA = CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:XRP CRYPTOCAP:BNB Capish?
When will Microsoft (MSFT) close its monthly gap?NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft (MSFT) saw a 7% gap up following its earnings report in May.
To fill this gap, the stock would need to drop about 28.59% from its high, or 23.33% from the current level.
Historically, gaps on the monthly chart have eventually been filled, so it’s reasonable to assume that this one might be as well in the long term.
However, given that MSFT is one of the top three companies by market capitalization, a decline of more than 20% would likely trigger a broader correction across the Nasdaq index.
Therefore, this potential gap fill should not be seen merely as an individual stock event, but rather as part of a broader market correction scenario.
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