Classic tug-of-war NASDAQBias: Still broadly bullish on the daily—no true downside displacement, and price hasn’t closed below the last impulse up. But… we failed to close above recent 2-month highs and are sitting right at weekly equilibrium.
Where we are: Price is coiling around the 4H BISI low ≈ 23,790.50, which also aligns with ~50% of the weekly range. Nested inside is a 1H BISI with a bullish 1H OB just beneath. Classic tug-of-war spot.
Areas of Interest:
Above: 23,929 → PDH 23,962.75 → 24,000 BRN → 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance).
Below: 23,713.50 (50% of 1H OB) → 23,596 → 23,501 → swing magnet 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high).
Tell: The last “new low” on 1H needed two candles to actually close below and did so weakly. That shows sell-side lacks displacement unless we break structure decisively.
What flips the switch (clear invalidation logic)
Bullish reclaim: 15–60m close back above 23,790–23,804 (ETH close 23,796.5 / RTH close 23,804) and hold on a retest → long side favored.
Bearish break: Clean 1H close below 23,713 (and acceptance under it) → short side favored; you’re below the 1H OB and the nested BISI.
Two actionable trade plans
(Use your 5m/1m execution: wait for displacement through the trigger, then take the FVG or OB retrace inside the HTF level.)
A) Reclaim-and-go LONG (higher-probability if we hold above weekly EQ)
Trigger: 15–60m close above 23,790–23,804, then a controlled retest that holds (wick below, body close back above).
Entry zone: 23,790–23,804 (retest of 4H BISI low / prior close cluster).
Invalidation (stop): Below 23,713 (under the 1H OB mid) or tighter under the swing that forms your 5m/1m FVG entry (your call on risk).
Conservative SL: 23,690–23,705 (below the OB body).
Profit targets:
T1: 23,929 (first buy-side pools / inefficiency fill)
T2: 23,962.75 (PDH)
T3: 24,000 (round-number magnet)
T4 (runner): 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance)
Trade management: Partial at T1, move stop to BE after M5 market structure shift in your favor or after T1 prints. Keep a runner if displacement expands.
B) Breakdown-and-acceptance SHORT
Trigger: Clean 1H close below 23,713 and a retest rejection (can use a 5m FVG inside 23,713–23,730).
Entry zone: 23,713–23,730 (failed reclaim of 1H OB mid / underside of the 1H BISI).
Invalidation (stop): Above 23,790–23,804 (back inside/above the 4H BISI low and prior closes).
Tighter intraday SL can sit above the 5m swing that breaks down.
Profit targets:
T1: 23,596
T2: 23,501
T3 (optional intraday): 23,440–23,460 (prior 1H demand base, if visible on your feed)
T4 (swing only): 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high)
Trade management: Take partial at T1, trail above last M5 LHs. If New York lunch compresses, be quick to pay yourself.
Why these are the right spots
23,790–23,804 is a decision box: 4H BISI low + ETH/RTH prior close cluster + weekly EQ. Acceptance above = trend continuation likely; rejection = continuation of the rotation lower.
23,713.50 is the line in the sand intraday: it’s the 50% of your 1H OB and sits just beneath the 1H BISI. Lose it and you’ve removed the nearby bullish sponsor, opening the path to 23,596/23,501.
The lack of downside displacement on the last “new low” keeps a bullish continuation on the table—until we get that decisive 1H break/acceptance below 23,713.
Execution tips
Time-of-day: favor NY AM session for your displacement signal; Monday often ranges → reduce size until one side wins (as you noted).
Trigger discipline: do not anticipate the reclaim/break. Wait for the 15–60m close, then execute on 5m/1m FVG back into the level.
Risk: if trading the same idea across multiple accounts, stagger entries (one at level, one at 50% of the M5 FVG).
Quick reference (levels)
Bullish above: 23,804 → 23,929 → 23,962.75 → 24,000 → 24,040–24,080
Neutral box: 23,790.5 (4H BISI low / weekly EQ) ± a few ticks
Bearish below: 23,713.5 → 23,596 → 23,501 → 22,684.75
