Get started

Nasdaqfutures

NQ1! — Fed Week: 25,650 Inflection | Tight Decision📊 NQ1! NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES December 9, 2025 | by officialjackofalltrades 🟡 CAUTIOUS |Fed Week Special Edition EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - THE PRE-FED SETUP Current Price: $25,651.50 | Date: December 9, 2025 | Change: -$48.25 (-0.19%) The Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures are consolidating in a tight range between 25,000-26,300 as markets brace for tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision. After December E-mini Nasdaq futures rose +0.10% on Tuesday, the index is now sitting in a critical decision zone with massive implications for tech stocks. The Technical Picture: Pattern: Range-bound consolidation (4 weeks) Current Position: Middle of range at 25,650 Resistance: 26,200-26,300 (tested multiple times, rejected) Support: 24,700-24,900 (solid floor since November) Key Level: 25,200 (bull/bear line) The Fundamental Backdrop: Big Tech was mixed at the close: Amazon booked a modest gain, while Apple, Meta and Microsoft finished slightly in the red. More importantly, These industry titans have consistently outpaced the broader S&P 500, with the S&P 500 Top 10 rising over 600% in total since January 1, 2016. But here's the tension: AI capex coming from tech companies listed in the S&P 500 is $400 billion or more per year, going forward. The biggest AI company OpenAI has disclosed revenues of just $13 billion for 2025. The Trade: Long from 25,200-25,600, target 26,500-27,200, stop 24,650. Risk/reward: 1:2.5 . MARKET CONTEXT - WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING The Pre-Fed Paralysis Stock indexes gave up early gains and settled mixed on Tuesday as bond yields climbed after the Oct JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high. This is classic pre-FOMC behavior : markets waiting for the catalyst before committing. Investing.com - U.S. stock futures inch down ahead of the start of trading for December, with investors keeping tabs on a possible rate cut. The AI Valuation Debate Here's what's creating the consolidation: AI optimism vs. valuation concerns . BULLISH CAMP: Nvidia leads the tech sector with a market cap of $4.4 trillion 24/7 Wall St. forecast projects Nvidia revenue rising from $121 billion in 2025 to more than $265 billion by 2030 For the Mag 7 group, total earnings are expected to increase by +12.6% on +9.5% higher revenues in 2025 BEARISH CAMP: OpenAI may have lost $12 billion in the third quarter of 2025 alone, according to a disclosure by Microsoft 806 Russell 2000 companies (40%) have no earnings or negative earnings The revenues currently being generated by AI companies are far smaller than the amount of capex being directed at them My Take: This is why NQ is stuck in range. Bulls see AI growth, bears see bubble. Fed decision tomorrow will tip the scale. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - THE RANGE-BOUND BATTLE Pattern: Consolidation Rectangle (4 Weeks) Your purple boxes perfectly capture the support/resistance clusters . Let me break down what the chart is telling us: Key Technical Levels: 🔴 RESISTANCE (Selling Zones): 26,200-26,300: Tested 4 times since November, strong rejection zone 26,500-26,700: If we break above, this is next target 27,000-27,200: Extension target if Fed is dovish 🟢 SUPPORT (Buying Zones): 25,200-25,400: Minor support, current price zone 24,900-25,100: Major support cluster (your bottom purple box) 24,700-24,800: Absolute floor, tested Nov 19 24,300-24,500: Nuclear support if range breaks Current Position: The Nasdaq 100 Futures price has ranged from 25,657.50 to 25,693.75 today extremely tight range showing indecision. Technical Indicators: Moving Averages: 50-day MA: ~25,400 (acting as support) 200-day MA: ~24,200 (long-term uptrend intact) Golden Cross: Active since October = bullish Volume: The current trading volume for Nasdaq 100 Futures is 6,395 very low , typical pre-Fed paralysis. RSI: Currently: ~52-55 (neutral) Not overbought (room to run) Not oversold (no panic) MACD: Flat, coiling for breakout Waiting for directional catalyst SCENARIO ANALYSIS - THREE FED OUTCOMES SCENARIO A: Dovish Cut (55% Probability) - BULLISH What Happens: Fed cuts 25bps ✓ Dot plot shows 3-4 more cuts in 2026 ✓ Powell emphasizes "labor market concerns" ✓ Tech gets green light to continue AI spending ✓ Market Reaction: Immediate: NQ pumps 1.5-2% to 26,000-26,200 Day 1-3: Breakout above 26,300, test 26,700 Week 1-2: Rally to 27,000-27,500 Month 1: Target 27,800-28,200 (+9-10%) Winners: Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) lead Mag 7 outperform High-growth tech rallies hard Trade Setup: Enter: Current 25,650 OR breakout above 26,300 Add: On pullback to 26,000 after breakout Target: 27,500 (+7.2%) Stop: 25,100 (-2.1%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.4 SCENARIO B: Hawkish Cut (35% Probability) - CHOPPY What Happens: Fed cuts 25bps ✓ BUT dot plot shows only 1-2 cuts in 2026 ❌ Powell says "inflation still concerning" ❌ Tech valuations questioned ❌ Market Reaction: Immediate: NQ drops 1-1.5% to 25,200-25,400 Day 1: Volatility, test 24,900 support Week 1-2: Choppy recovery to 25,800-26,000 Month 1: Grind back to 26,200-26,500 (+2-3%) Losers: High-valuation AI stocks hit hard Stocks with high capex vs. revenue scrutinized Small caps underperform Trade Setup: DO NOT chase before Fed Buy: Dip to 24,900-25,100 (support) Target: 26,000-26,300 (+5-6% from dip) Stop: 24,650 (-2%) Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 SCENARIO C: No Cut OR Very Hawkish (10% Probability) - BEARISH What Happens: Fed HOLDS at 3.75-4% ❌ OR cuts but says "this is the last one" ❌ Powell cites AI bubble concerns ❌ Tech sell-off accelerates ❌ Market Reaction: Immediate: NQ crashes 2-3% to 24,700-25,000 Day 1: VIX spikes, panic selling Week 1-2: Test 24,300-24,500 Month 1: Bottom around 23,800-24,200 (-7-8%) Trade Setup: Exit ALL longs immediately Wait for capitulation Buy: 24,000-24,300 (major support) Target: Recovery to 25,500-26,000 (+6-8%) High stress, high reward THE TRADE SETUP - PROFESSIONAL EXECUTION 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY NQ1! Entry Strategy (Scale In): Option A: Conservative (Wait for Dip): 25,000-25,200 (IF hawkish dip) 24,800-25,000 (IF deeper dip to support) Best for: Risk-averse traders Stop Loss: 24,650 (HARD STOP) Below 24,650 = range break on daily Below this = technical structure invalidated Max loss from 25,650 entry: Take Profit Targets: TP1: 26,200-26,500 Range breakout + resistance retest Action: Take 40% profit, move stop to 25,200 Gain: +2.1-3.3% | Risk/Reward: 1:2 TP2: 27,000-27,500 Momentum continuation post-Fed Technical indicators show Strong Buy signal TP3: 27,800-28,200 Full breakout, AI optimism returns Long-term forecast shows potential to $28,452 Entry Confirmation Checklist: Before entering, CHECK: ✅ Price holding above 25,200 (bull/bear line) ✅ Volume spike on bounce (15K+ contracts on 4H) ✅ Fed announces 25bps cut (as expected) ✅ Powell's tone dovish or neutral (not hawkish) ✅ Mag 7 stocks holding up (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL) ✅ VIX below 16 (fear contained) WAIT FOR 4/6 BEFORE FULL POSITION Use Micro E-minis (MNQ) for Better Sizing: MNQ = $2/point (vs NQ $20/point) Same moves, 1/10th capital Better for risk management Fed Day Protocol (December 10): 2:00 PM ET - Fed Statement: Tighten stops to 25,100 before announcement READ statement immediately Ignore first 5 minutes (algo chaos) 2:30 PM ET - Powell Press Conference: WATCH LIVE - tone matters more than words Dovish = add to position on dip Hawkish = cut 50%, tight stops 5. Emergency Exits: ❌ Daily close below 24,650 = EXIT ALL ❌ VIX spikes above 22 = EXIT 50% ❌ Fed announces NO cut = EXIT ALL ❌ Powell says "last cut for 6+ months" = EXIT 50% ❌ Mag 7 stocks crash 3%+ = EXIT 50% FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - THE AI CONUNDRUM CATALYST #1: The Magnificent 7 Dominance Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple make up 20.7% of the S&P 500 and 43.6% of the Vanguard Information Technology ETF. This concentration means: NQ lives or dies by Mag 7 performance Fed policy directly impacts these valuations Any weakness cascades fast Current Status: Nvidia: $4.37T market cap Apple: $4.20T market cap Microsoft: $4T+ market cap CATALYST #2: The AI Spending Paradox Here's the $400 billion question : AI capex from S&P 500 tech companies is $400 billion or more per year. The biggest AI company OpenAI has disclosed revenues of just $13 billion for 2025. The Math Doesn't Add Up: Spending: $400B/year Revenue: $13B/year Gap: $387B/year of unprofitable spending "Can the 10 AI companies generate enough revenue to justify the capex?" says Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. BUT: Nvidia revenue projected to rise from $121B in 2025 to $265B by 2030 revenue IS growing, just not fast enough yet. CATALYST #3: Earnings Growth Remains Strong Mag 7 earnings expected to increase +12.6% on +9.5% higher revenues in 2025. Excluding the Mag 7, total earnings for remaining S&P 500 companies expected to grow +8.7% in 2025. Translation: Even without AI hype, earnings are solid. CATALYST #4: Fed Policy is CRITICAL With U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovering just above 4% and the Fed set to decide on a widely expected rate cut, growth stocks remain sensitive to even small changes in rate expectations. Why This Matters: Lower rates = higher valuations for growth Higher rates = multiple compression Tech has highest duration risk RISK FACTORS - THE BEAR CASE RISK #1: AI Bubble Concerns Nvidia's Jensen Huang says he doesn't believe we're in an AI bubble. Amazon's Jeff Bezos says we probably are in one. OpenAI's Sam Altman has invoked a bubble, adding, "I do think some investors are likely to lose a lot of money". Even AI leaders are split! RISK #2: Valuation Stretched OpenAI may have lost $12 billion in Q3 2025 alone, yet is valued at $500 billion by VCs. If valuations reset, NQ drops 15-20%. RISK #3: Concentration Risk Since October 2022, roughly 75% of gains in S&P 500 have come from just seven stocks. If Mag 7 stumbles, entire index falls . RISK #4: Technical Breakdown Break below 24,650 = target 23,800-24,200 (-6-7%) THE BOTTOM LINE Here's what I KNOW on December 9, 2025: ✅ Fed expected to cut 25bps tomorrow ✅ NQ technical indicators show Strong Buy ✅ Mag 7 earnings growing +12.6% in 2025 ✅ NQ in consolidation range 25,000-26,300 ✅ Support at 24,900 has held 4 times ✅ Your purple boxes show clear support/resistance Here's what I DON'T know: Will Powell be dovish or hawkish? How many 2026 cuts will dot plot show? Will AI bubble concerns accelerate? But here's the MATH: Risk: 25,650 → 24,650 Reward: 25,650 → 27,500 Extended: 25,650 → 28,200 The Play: Small position NOW 25,650 IF hawkish dip to 24,900-25,100 IF dovish → ADD on breakout above 26,300 Stop 24,650 Target 27,500, then 28,200 Position accordingly. Follow officialjackofalltrades for institutional-grade futures analysis, Fed-day strategies, and professional risk management. Drop a 📊 if you're trading NQ through the Fed decision. Drop a 🎯 if this analysis helped your setup. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for 27,500+ breakout. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This post is for educational and informational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by officialjackofalltrades
Can NQ1! Push Through $25K+ Resistance Zone?🎯 The Great NQ Heist: Layered Entry Strategy for E-Mini NASDAQ-100 Futures 📊 Market Overview **Asset:** NQ1! (E-Mini NASDAQ-100 Futures) **Strategy Type:** Swing/Day Trade - Wealth Accumulation Map **Bias:** 🐂 **BULLISH** 🎭 The "Gentleman Thief" Layering Strategy 💰 Entry Philosophy: Layer Like a Pro This setup uses a **sophisticated layering approach** - think of it as strategically placing multiple limit orders to capture the best average entry. You're not going all-in at one price; you're building your position like a chess master. 📍 Suggested Layer Entry Zones: - 🎯 Layer 1: **24,800** - 🎯 Layer 2: **24,900** - 🎯 Layer 3: **25,000** - 🎯 Layer 4: **25,100** Note: You can scale in at ANY price level using this layering method. Add more layers based on your position size and risk tolerance. The beauty of this strategy is flexibility - enter where the market gives you opportunity! 🎪 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss Zone: **24,700** ⚠️ **Important:** This is MY stop loss level based on technical structure. However, trading is a personal journey - YOU decide your own risk parameters. Protect your capital first, profits second. Your SL should align with YOUR risk tolerance and account size. 🎯 Profit Target Target Zone: **25,600** 🚀 This level represents a confluence of: - 💪 Strong resistance zone - 📈 Overbought conditions - Potential bull trap area **Smart Exit Strategy:** As we approach this zone, consider scaling out of positions. Don't get greedy - take profits when the market offers them! ⚠️ **Reminder:** This is MY target projection. You're the captain of your own ship - take profits when YOU feel comfortable. Trail stops, scale out, or hold for moon - your money, your rules! 🌙 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch Keep your eyes on these correlated instruments - SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ =F** - NASDAQ-100 Futures (spot reference) - NASDAQ:QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust (ETF equivalent) - NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:GOOGL ** - Top NASDAQ-100 components - NASDAQ:NDX - NASDAQ-100 Index (cash) - CME_MINI:ES1! - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (broader market correlation) 📌 Why these matter:** The NASDAQ-100 is tech-heavy, so major tech stocks drive NQ movement. Watch QQQ for retail sentiment and ES for overall risk appetite. When big tech moves, NQ follows! 💻 🎓 Strategy Breakdown This "layering" or "scaling-in" approach offers several advantages: - ✅ **Better average entry** - Dollar-cost averaging into position - ✅ **Reduced timing risk** - Not dependent on perfect entry - ✅ **Psychological comfort** - Builds confidence as position develops - ✅ **Flexibility** - Adapt to market conditions in real-time 📢 Final Thoughts The market rewards patience and discipline. This layered entry strategy is about working WITH the market, not against it. Whether you're a swing trader holding for days or a day trader scalping ticks, the principle remains: **Control your risk, let profits run.** 🏃‍♂️💨 ✨ **If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!** **⚠️ DISCLAIMER:** This analysis represents a "gentleman thief" style layered trading strategy intended for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade with risk capital you can afford to lose. Make your own trading decisions based on your personal risk tolerance, account size, and market analysis. 🎭📊 #NQ1 #NASDAQ100 #NASDAQFutures #EminiNQ #FuturesTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LayeringStrategy #ScalingIn #TradingSetup #FuturesMarket #TechFutures #NDX #QQQ #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy #MarketAnalysis #BullishSetup
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by The-Thief