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NASDAQ: After A 4.2% Drop, Is There Support For Higher Prices?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of June 8-11th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) (NAS100) The tech-heavy index is facing notable downward pressure after suffering its largest single-day drop in over a year (a 4.2% plunge). What to watch: - Interest Rates and Jobs: A much stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report has caused Treasury yields to rise. This has reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which generally hurts high-growth, tech-heavy stocks. - Tech and AI Valuations: Semiconductor and AI-related stocks (such as Nvidia, AMD, and Intel) experienced heavy selling. Investors are questioning whether the massive spending on artificial intelligence is translating into immediate returns. - Upcoming Economic Data: The market's direction this week will likely be heavily influenced by incoming macroeconomic reports, specifically upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings. My plan: Wait patiently for the market to find its feet in the OTE levels highlighted in the video. A strong US Dollar could pressure equities prices down to the breakout level of 26864.50. If this happens, I will be waiting for the formation of the buy model, and ride the wave up! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by RT_Money
NQ All-Time Highs: Pure Breakout or the Ultimate Bull Trap? Context: What the Market Has Done? NQ staged a powerful V-shape recovery beginning in early April, catalyzed by the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7. The ceasefire triggered an immediate broad-based relief rally, with the Nasdaq surging over 2.8% on that single session alone as hedge funds scrambled to cover short positions that had built up throughout the prior month of conflict. Energy prices dropped sharply as well, with oil briefly unwinding a significant portion of its war-driven premium following hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic. Since that pivot point, the market has rallied in a near-parabolic fashion, driven by a powerful combination of AI-related momentum, strong large-cap technology earnings, and growing investor optimism that geopolitical tensions will continue to de-escalate. NQ has blown decisively through the pre-war all-time high of 26864, and the market has shown no meaningful sign of relenting. There have been only a handful of red sessions since April, with dip buyers stepping in aggressively on each one. During the week of May 4, the market established a clear uptrend, trending higher across the week. Last week, however, NQ transitioned into a balancing phase, as evidenced by the balanced weekly volume profile. Value was established higher, which is a healthy price action that allows the market to digest the prior aggressive move and build a base before the next leg. This type of consolidation after a sustained trend is constructive, not a sign of weakness. Last week closed back within the prior week's Value Area on Friday, as a broad selloff hit across asset classes. The trigger was a deteriorating bond market. A global bond selloff gathered pace into Friday, driven by back-to-back US inflation reports showing sharper-than-expected rises in both consumer and wholesale prices, climbing crude oil prices, and the failure of the US-China summit in Beijing to produce any breakthrough on ending the Iran war or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Rising yields pressured high-growth technology names, with the Nasdaq 100 tumbling over 1.4% on the session as traders reduced risk into the weekend. What to Expect in the Coming Weeks? The key level to watch heading into the coming weeks is 29000, which is the prior week's Value Area Low (VAL). Bullish Scenario If buyers continue defending 29000, expect markets to revisit all time highs at 29782. If the market can accept above the 29500 area, which marks the May 11 weekly value area high, that could open the door for another leg higher into fresh all time highs. Watch order flow around millennium figures as price moves into uncharted territory, as profit taking may emerge there. Possible macro trigger: Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday May 20, with consensus expecting revenue of approximately $54.4 billion driven by Data Centre demand for its Blackwell chips. A beat on revenue and strong forward guidance could reignite AI momentum buying and send NQ aggressively higher. The FOMC Minutes, also due Wednesday, could add fuel if they reveal the committee is not as hawkish as the bond market is currently pricing, easing rate hike fears and sending yields lower. On the geopolitical front, any credible breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations or a confirmed, durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely trigger another sharp relief rally across risk assets, similar to the move seen when the initial ceasefire was announced in April. Trade access points for bullish scenario: Stalk for longs at 29000 on lower timeframe confirmation of buyers stepping in. These levels are notorious for overshoots and fakeouts designed to shake out weak longs before the larger buyers initiate. Stalk for a breakout above 29500 on high volume and strong pace, or a break-and-retest for a lower-risk entry with the tradeoff of potentially missing the move. Bearish Scenario If buyers fail to defend 29000, expect a move toward 28700, which is the May 4 weekly VPOC. If buyers fail to respond there, price could rotate lower toward 28230, which is the May 4 weekly LVN. Possible macro trigger: If Nvidia disappoints on earnings or guides cautiously given ongoing uncertainty around chip export rules to China, a sharp unwind in AI-driven positioning could weigh heavily on NQ. The FOMC Minutes could compound the selling if they reveal a growing number of members are actively debating rate hikes in response to war-driven inflation, pushing Treasury yields above recent highs and triggering a broader risk-off move. On the geopolitical front, a breakdown or collapse of the ceasefire, a fresh military escalation between the US/Israel and Iran, or a spike in crude oil back toward recent highs would reignite inflation fears, accelerate the bond selloff, and put significant pressure on technology names. Trade access points for bearish scenario: Stalk for a breakout below 29000 on high volume, strong pace, and negative delta. Exit quickly if the break is met with absorption and slowing pace, as a short squeeze may follow. Stalk for a break-and-retest of 29000, entering on lower-volume pullback with good seller absorption, confirmed by delta shifting from passive to aggressive on the tape and DOM. Neutral Scenario If price approaches 29500 on top or 29000 below with slowing pace and weak volume, expect rotation back into last week’s value area for continued two way auction. This would suggest the market is still building value higher before deciding on its next directional move. Possible macro trigger: An in-line Nvidia result, FOMC Minutes with no hawkish surprise, and an Iran situation that remains in limbo with neither breakthrough nor breakdown leaves the market without a directional catalyst, keeping NQ rangebound within last week's Value Area. Trade access points for neutral scenario: Fade the edges at 29500 or 29000 on reducing volume and slowing pace, using lower timeframe reversal patterns to trigger entry. Be patient with overshoots before rotating back. Conclusion NQ is sitting at a technically significant juncture. The macro tailwinds that fueled the V-shape recovery from the April lows, including the US-Iran ceasefire, aggressive short-covering, and AI-driven momentum in large-cap technology, remain intact at the broader level. However, the bond market is now flashing a warning. Rising yields driven by persistent inflation data and a stalled peace process are a headwind that this market will need to navigate carefully. The 29000 level represents the line in the sand. How buyers and sellers respond at this area will determine whether NQ continues its historic breakout into uncharted territory or takes a more meaningful step back to digest the extraordinary gains made over the past six weeks. Watch the orderflow, respect the levels, and let the market tell its story. Is 29000 going to hold and launch this market to new all-time highs, or is this the exhaustion point where the breakout finally fails? Are you buying the dip or fading the highs? Drop your targets and your bias below. Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk. Key Concepts covered in article: Balanced Weekly Volume Profile — when the distribution of volume across the week forms a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve, indicating that the market spent time building value at current prices rather than trending directionally, typically a sign of consolidation and acceptance. Value Area (VA) / Value Area High (VAH) / Value Area Low (VAL) — the range of prices where approximately 70% of the week's volume was transacted. The VAH is the upper boundary and the VAL is the lower boundary. These levels act as reference points for where the market considers fair value. Volume Point of Control (VPOC) — the single price level where the highest volume was traded during a given period, representing the area of greatest market acceptance and often acting as a magnet for price. Low Volume Node (LVN) — a price level where very little volume was transacted, indicating that the market rejected that price quickly. LVNs tend to offer little support or resistance and price often moves through them rapidly. Two-way Auction — a market condition where neither buyers nor sellers are in clear control, resulting in price rotating back and forth between the upper and lower boundaries of an established range as both sides compete for value. Absorption — occurs at a specific price or cluster of prices where the bid or offer is continuously reloading as one side actively lifts the offer or hits the bid, building a wall of volume at that level. Pace on the Tape — the speed at which orders are transacting at a given price level. Fast pace signals strong conviction behind a move, while slowing pace suggests the move may be losing steam. DOM (Depth of Market) — a real-time order book displaying the volume of pending buy and sell limit orders at each price level, allowing traders to see how buyers and sellers are interacting with the bids and offers in real time, including whether bids and offers are stacking or pulling, which reveals the true intention of the market. Delta — the net difference between aggressive buying and selling volume. Strongly negative delta on a breakdown confirms genuine seller conviction rather than a passive move that is vulnerable to reversal. Passive vs Aggressive Sellers — passive sellers place limit orders at the ask, waiting for buyers to come to them, while aggressive sellers actively hit the bid, indicating stronger conviction and urgency to push price lower. Millennium Figures — round number price levels ending in 000 (such as 29000, 30000), which act as significant psychological reference points where large players tend to take profit or initiate positions, often causing increased volatility and temporary stalls in price. Acronyms: C - Composite w - Weekly m - Monthly VA - Value Area VAH - Value Area High VAL - Value Area Low VPOC - Volume Point of Control LVN - Low Value Node LVA - Low Value Area HVN - High Value Node HVA - High Value Area SP - Single print ATH - All time high
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
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