Nasdaqsignals
APLD :: Bullish Price Action After Controlled Pullback๐ข APLD (Applied Digital Corporation) โ NASDAQ
Market Profit Playbook | Day / Swing Trade
๐ง Trade Thesis (Why This Setup?)
APLD is showing bullish continuation behavior after prior expansion, now respecting a Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) pullback on the 3H timeframe.
This type of pullback often attracts institutional dip participation when trend structure remains intact.
Think of this as a controlled pullback inside a broader bullish environment, not a random dip.
๐ Technical Structure Breakdown
๐น Trend
Primary bias: Bullish
Price holding above key trend structure
Pullback into Double EMA zone (3H) โ classic trend continuation zone
๐น Entry Method (Layered Accumulation)
Institutional-style scaling, not a single all-in entry.
Buy Limit Layers (example):
๐ฉ 36.00
๐ฉ 35.00
๐ฉ 34.00
๐ฉ 33.00
๐ You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk model and volatility tolerance.
๐ฏ Target Zone (Profit Escape)
Target: ๐ฏ 42.00
๐ Rationale:
Prior supply / resistance zone
Momentum historically stalls here
Overbought + liquidity trap potential
Smart money often distributes here โ grab profits, donโt negotiate
๐ Risk Control (Capital Protection)
Stop Loss: โ 30.00
๐ Below key structure โ invalidates bullish thesis if breached.
โ ๏ธ Risk Notes (Read Carefully)
Targets and stops are reference levels, not mandatory instructions
Partial profits are always valid
Manage position size responsibly
This playbook shows structure โ execution discipline is on you.
๐ฆ Fundamental & Macro Context (Why This Matters):
๐น Company Angle (APLD)
Applied Digital operates in high-performance computing & digital infrastructure
Sector sensitive to:
AI / data center demand
Energy costs
Capital market liquidity
๐น Macro Factors to Watch
๐ US Treasury Yields โ higher yields can pressure growth stocks
๐ฆ Fed Policy Expectations โ easing bias supports speculative tech
โก Energy Prices โ impacts operational costs
๐ NASDAQ sentiment โ APLD moves with risk-on / risk-off flows
Upcoming macro data that may impact volatility:
US CPI / PPI
FOMC statements
Bond auction demand
๐ Correlated Assets to Monitor
NASDAQ:NDX / NASDAQ:QQQ โ Tech sentiment driver
SP:SPX โ Broader risk appetite
CRYPTOCAP:BTC โ Speculative capital flow proxy
TVC:US10Y โ Yield pressure indicator
๐ If NASDAQ weakens sharply or yields spike, expect higher volatility in APLD.
๐ง Final Thought
This is not prediction trading โ itโs probability management.
The edge comes from structure + patience, not hype.
โจ โIf you find value in my analysis, a ๐ and ๐ boost is much appreciated โ it helps me share more setups with the community!โ
NASDAQ similarities with the 2022 Bear Cycle are striking.Nasdaq (NDX) almost tested last week its October 2025 High and got rejected. Unless it breaks soon, this is technically considered a Double Top. With the 1W RSI being already on a Lower Highs Bearish Divergence since July 2023, the whole pattern draws similarities to the bullish build-up that led to he 2022 Bear Cycle.
As long as the market doesn't make a new High, it is possible to that we are in a similar situation as January 2022, with the 1W RSI (ellipse) virtually identical to today's and lower than the High 3 months ago.
The 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed just after it breached below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on the trend-lines current trajectory, this could be below 19500 by the end of 2026.
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NAS100 - SECOND ROUND - Read CarefullyTeam Update โ Read Carefully
Earlier today we had two targets hit.
We are now entering at a much better price:
25292โ25305
Important Note
The market has completed a second retest, but based on current structure, I expect a recovery either during the European session or before the US market opens.
Targets
Target 1: 25345โ25385 - Take 50% partial. Move stop loss to BREAKEVEN
Target 2: 25415โ25465
Momentum is still aligned with our bias.
LETS GO
NQ Trading Inside Pivot Zone โ Expansion Incoming 1/27/26๐ NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures) โ Premarket Trading Plan
Timeframe: 30-min
Session Theme: Balance โ Expansion from Pivot
๐ก Primary Pivot Zone (Decision Area)
25,984 โ 25,960
This zone defines control for the session.
Above pivot โ bullish continuation bias
Below pivot โ rotational / risk-off behavior
No bias without acceptance.
๐ด Upside Levels (If Pivot Holds)
26,007 โ 26,043 โ First resistance / acceptance test
26,085 โ 26,130 โ Major supply / upside extension zone
Failure here likely rotates price back toward the pivot.
๐ข Downside Levels (If Pivot Fails)
25,912 โ 25,880 โ First support / responsive bids
25,845 (Prior Week High) โ Structural bull line
25,738 (Prior Week Close) โ Breakdown confirmation
25,680 โ 25,630 โ Major demand / liquidation pocket
Acceptance below 25,845 signals real momentum shift.
๐ง Market Structure Read
Higher-timeframe trend remains bullish
Price is compressing above weekly structure
Current action = balance, not rejection
Expect range expansion once pivot resolves
This is a decision day, not a chase environment.
๐งญ Trade Thesis
๐ข Bull Case
Hold 25,984โ25,960
Buyers defend pullbacks into the pivot
Acceptance above 26,007 opens: 26,043
26,085 โ 26,130
Best longs = pivot holds + higher low + volume confirmation
๐ด Bear Case
Acceptance below 25,960
Rotation toward 25,912 โ 25,880
Loss of 25,845 opens: 25,738
25,680 โ 25,630 if momentum accelerates
Shorts only make sense after pivot failure, not inside it.
๐ BOTTOM LINE โ REAL IMPACT FACTORS FOR NQ TODAY
๐ข Bullish / Supportive
โ
Positive premarket futures bias
โ
Strong tech earnings anticipation
โ
Softer USD supporting risk assets
โ
Global equities resilient despite tariff rhetoric
๐ด Bearish / Risk Factors
โ Fed policy caution โ no aggressive easing signal
โ Tariff headlines & geopolitical risk remain overhangs
โ Sector divergence (weak insurers) could spill into sentiment
๐ Quantum Regime Snapshot (QRS)
๐ก Neutral โ Conditional Risk-On
Risk appetite remains constructive above the pivot, but this is not full risk-on. Structure confirmation required before pressing size.
โก Volatility Expectation
Moderate โ Elevated
Compression near pivot = expansion potential
Earnings + macro uncertainty = fast rotations
Expect two-way trade, not a straight trend day
๐ฏ Execution Rules
Trade reactions, not predictions
Above pivot โ lean long, buy pullbacks
Below pivot โ fade strength, expect rotation
No acceptance = patience
1/26/26 NQ Premarket Playbook โ Levels First, Noise LastNQ ๐ | Premarket Trading Plan (30-Min)
๐งฒ Premarket Pivot: 25,710
โ Line in the sand for todayโs bias
๐ด Resistance / Supply
25,738 โ 25,845 โ prior rejection / supply shelf
25,880 โ 25,912 โ upper resistance band
25,960 โ stretch target if risk fully flips on
๐ข Support / Demand
25,630 โ 25,600 โ first demand / pullback support
25,555 โ key structural level
25,380 โ 25,365 โ major demand zone
25,127 โ last support before range damage
๐งญ TRADE THESIS
๐ข Bull Case
Acceptance above 25,710 keeps upside pressur
Holding 25,630โ25,600 on pullbacks = buy structure
Sustained trade above 25,738 opens rotation toward
25,845 โ 25,880+
โก๏ธ Buyers must defend dips, not allow value to slip back below pivot
๐ด Bear Case
Failure to hold 25,710 = rejection at value high
Acceptance back below 25,630 opens 25,555
Loss of 25,555 exposes 25,380 demand
โก๏ธ Shorts favored on failed reclaims into resistance
NASDAQ Will the 2-month Resistance hold and cause a correction?Nasdaq (NDX) opened lower today but quickly recovered as it hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). With last week's Low being on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), the level that has caused the last two major rebounds since November 21 2025, the market focus shifts again on Resistance 1 (almost 2 months intact), which has caused the last 4 top rejections.
With the Lower Highs trend-line also since its All Time High holding and a huge 1D RSI Lower Highs Bearish Divergence since September 22 2025, as long as the market doesn't close a 1D candle above Resistance 1, we expect a bearish reversal first to 24900 (just above Support 1) and if Support 2 breaks, bearish extension targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) around 24200.
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