Update on XAU USD market-structure. See chart below please.
On the important 1HR timeframe and critical 50 EMA where it gets most of its support and cues from, for the 5 hours it has still had this support despite some bouncing around and increased volatility on the lower timeframes.
Mr Powell addresses at 10am NY time and New Home sales we would like a bearish figure and an upbeat Mr Powell who probably is a bit anxious the past few weeks.
Enjoy your trading today.
We have some bullish heads n shoulders patterns that may execute later. I think it might be a profitable day for you (I mean night for me). Stay tuned.
Regards,
Chris
Newyorksession
Friday 23, N.Y Gold & USDX: Very very interesting...See charts!
Happy Friday guys, I was tired & late getting into the Asian session earlier. But as soon as I locked-horns with my 42" monitor I saw that Gold & Silver were in a mild upside rally. I soon took a long position & recommended one for you in Silver which was rallying stronger than gold.
The gold price struggled at resistance from 2490 to 2500, not strong resistance at 2490 but volume is always lighter in the Asian session. We quickly booked a profit, I am hoping you did as everything happened so fast in a Long trade which only lasted 40 minutes or so. What happened next? Plz read on below.
I saw that price kept getting rejected at the 20 EMA on the lower-time-frame. I decided to go Short & I recommended a very small lot-size Sell-stop below where price was I think from memory my Sell-stops were around 2489 or thereabouts. Next, I distracted myself on another project on the 'hotcopper' forum with a bullish lithium company I am very heavily invested in called Raiden Resources RDN is the ticker, if you want to check it out, I will never sell Stock trades but this thing is looking good, but you google the stories on Raiden Resources if you wish.
So, I had no Stops on my Short because I generally do not like Stops because I find 9 times out 10 the Market-Makers will hunt your stop down so that Mr & Mrs Market-Maker make their big fat wealthy private bank clients wealthier. Maybe that's a bit harsh, but I often wonder.
So the Gold price found support because I took my eye off the field & forgot to book profits and the Gold price started to properly find support and some strength above 2490.
Guys, that is enough on that. Look what concerns me in Friday trading are these bullish Head 'n' Shoulders patterns & on multiple timeframes. We are still about 0.31% from the trigger line & look they probably won't play out today, but what about next week? If the USDX does turnaround next Monday & it certainly could do that because it is very oversold on the Stochastics. However, the path of least resistance for the USDX is further down because it's below its moving averages & how many bloody times do we go Long & then close out of the trade & look at a higher-time-frame & exclaim to ourselves, 'I am an idiot the trend was down / the path of least resistance was down - Why did I go Long'. I used to do it all the time when I was a very green, greedy & gullible trader. Well I still get greedy!
I will monitor these H & S's on the ASDX.
I see where the boss speaks today, The Fed Chair, Mr Powell at 10am Eastern Time USA & Canada and we also have another chat from FOMC member Bostic. My feeling is that Mr Powell has maybe felt a bit anxious lately & he may give our market a bit of a boost today by reiterating the theme of interest rate reduction(s) next month which of course will bode well for Gold & Precious Metals in general.
Further on the Economic Calendar today, we have Building Permits at 08:30am & then New Home Sales at 10am, the latter having a bit more weight and bearing on our trading. Unless you are looking to Short the Gold price today, with our 2 speakers hopefully talking up an interest rate reduction & if the other 2 mentions on the economic calendar come in a bit bearish then this will be poor or the USD but more than likely supportive of the Gold price and getting back above 2500, which I think is where the 50EMA sits on the 1 HR Chart.
So recapping, my feeling is that today will be bullish for Gold depending on New Home Sales mostly but Mr Powell's endorsements rate reductions for the US economy commencing next month will shrug off any bearishness in the Gold price.
In addition to the Head 'n' Shoulders patterns for the USDX (see the 1st set of charts), I have scouring Precious Metals searching for other H & S's patterns so I will be posting these charts so that you have a road-map for the possibility of taking these H & S trades which are predominately bullish ones, I will post these below very soon & I have tradingview alerts set for when price gets near the neckline.
Cheers,
Chris
USDCHF | Short Term PredictionD : Bearish Trend
15m :
"Wait for the NY Killzone session to take sell-side liquidity for a long position.
Wait for the NY Killzone session to take an immediate buy-side liquidity sweep from previous sessions, and also a buy-side liquidity sweep within the NY session, then take a short position.
Do not deviate from the 1-minute confirmation process."
US30USD: Potential Buy OpportunityGreetings, Traders!
Brief Description🖊️: Bullish momentum is building on US30USD after a retrace into discount prices, with potential for upside continuation.
Things I Have Seen👀:
- Bullish Momentum📈: Gain momentum after retrace into discount prices
- Respected Discount Arrays📊: FVGs holding, indicating potential for upside move
- Price Action📈: Push to upside to take H1 buy stops, followed by retrace into FVG
Analysis🔍:
- Anticipating hold of FVG and continuation to upside
- First Target Objective📉: H1 buy stops
- Second Target Objective📉: Order block, importance due to liquidity void needing to be filled
What's Important Now❗:
Monitor price action around key levels for confirmation of bullish continuation.
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
US100USD: Promising Buy-Side Potential!Greetings, Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Currently, on US100USD, I am observing bullish momentum entering the market. After retracing into discount prices, the price began pushing upwards, engulfing bearish candles and indicating a change in state of delivery, which means a bullish order block formation. The price then retested this order block, found support, and another bullish order block was formed, which is currently being tested. The mean threshold (middle line of the order block) has been rejected multiple times, suggesting that the order block may strongly hold as support, allowing the price to continue rising.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Bullish Momentum📈: The market is showing signs of a bullish order block formation after retracing into discount prices and pushing upwards.
Order Block Support🟢: The mean threshold of the current order block is being rejected multiple times, indicating strong support.
Bullish Targets📉:
Failure Swings: These possess buy-side liquidity.
Liquidity Void: The main objective is to fill this inefficiency.
Balanced Price Range: Located above the liquidity void, it is the last point where the price was efficiently delivered.
What's Important Now❗
Monitor the price action around these key levels to confirm bullish continuation and identify profitable trading opportunities.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
NAS100USD: Potential Buy Opportunity for NY SessionGreetings, Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Currently, institutional order flow on US100 is bullish, therefore we are looking for price to take sell stops in order for a turtle soup trade condition (false break).
Things I Have Seen👀:
Bullish Institutional Order Flow📈: Anticipating price to continue to the upside after sell stops have been taken. Smart money will look to order pair (buy against the sell-side liquidity).
Potential Sell Stops🔄: Price may take sell stops before buying, presenting a turtle soup condition (false break of structure). After sell stops have been taken, I will look to take a confirmation entry.
Bullish Targets📉:
Daily FVG: The primary target.
M15 Bearish Order Block: The secondary objective, with an expectation to fill the liquidity void there.
What's Important Now❗
Stay observant for price action around these key levels to confirm bullish continuation.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
Rinse and Repeat Simple Intraday Momentum Trading StrategyI illustrate my simple short term USA session strategy and also talk about the importance of the USA session when it comes to trend changes and daily bias changes
As always, these are the main steps:
Identify an intraday directional bias
Identify the key levels
Identify trade entry triggers
Manage the trade with attention to "Actual Risk"
Pre USA Setups I'm Looking at for Intraday Momentum ScalpsHey traders, a preview for how to apply my simple momentum scalping strategy to the USA session today.
As always, these are the main steps:
Identify an intraday directional bias
Identify the key levels
Identify trade entry triggers
Manage the trade with attention to "Actual Risk"
Weekly Momentum Scalping Strategy RECAP | Nov 27 - Dec 1Hey guys, join me for a refresher of last week's trading.
The goal of this video is to reaffirm our simple and effective US session scalping strategy with the following steps:
Identify an intraday directional bias
Identify the key levels
Identify trade entry triggers
Manage the trade with attention to "Actual Risk"
Additionally, how to avoid bad setups with the strategy
Thanks for watching
What is ICT Power of 3?Power of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Ict power of 3 is a strategy that reveal the market maker algorithm model for price delivery.
Power of 3 simply means there are 3 things market makers algorithm do with price in ever trading days.
Those 3 things are; Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution.
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
1. Accumulation: They accumulate liquidity through the delivery of a ranging market.
The purpose for delivering a ranging market is to induce both buyers and sellers to enter the market thinking that price will go in their direction.
2. Manipulation: After accumulating both buying and sell orders, they then manipulate the market to further induce another set of traders which are breakout traders.
But, that particular manipulation move is not their intended direction for the day. They only use it to gather liquidity, Which will then lead them to the next action which is to move and distribute price in their real direction for the day.
3. Distribution: After manipulating price to a particular direction different from their plan, they then distribute price to their original intended direction.
e.g to buy, they will first sell the market and then buy at the discount price level.
Example of Power of 3 on Gold
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.