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AUDUSD Eyes 0.6500 as Softer CPI and Weak Jobs Data Weigh on USDHey Traders, In the coming week, we’re monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.65000 zone. The pair remains in a broader uptrend, with the current pullback shaping up as a healthy correction toward key structural support. Structure: Price continues to respect its ascending trendline, and the 0.65000 area aligns with a strong confluence of horizontal support and dynamic trend structure — a level that has previously attracted strong buying momentum. Macro Outlook: The latest U.S. inflation print came in softer at 3.0%, undershooting expectations, while labour market data continues to signal cooling conditions. Together, these developments reinforce a dovish shift in Fed sentiment, weighing on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). At the same time, Gold continues to rally, underpinned by the weakening Dollar and rising safe-haven demand. Given the positive correlation between AUD and Gold, this macro backdrop strengthens the bullish case for AUDUSD in the coming sessions. Next Move: A sustained bid around 0.65000 could mark the start of another impulse leg higher — targeting a retest of recent highs if momentum confirms. Trade safe, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
8
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 STOP!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.17085 💰TP: 1.15818 ⛔️SL: 1.17720 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: A decline in the euro is seen as the main scenario for today, as part of a reversal from the area near 1.19000. Currently, the price is testing short-term resistance at 1.17445, where the POC (point of control) of the current downward movement is located. For a more conservative entry, it is better to use a pending order with an entry level below this resistance. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Short
by StopLoss222
2
XAUUSD - Will Gold Hit $4,000?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly chart and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone will provide us with a better risk-reward buying opportunity. It should be noted that these positions are intended to hedge against this uptrend. In early Monday trading in Asian markets, global gold prices surpassed $3,900 per ounce for the first time, driven by stronger demand for safe-haven assets amid the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Goldman Sachs once again reaffirmed its bullish outlook on gold, calling it its “most favored long-term commodity asset”, even as the precious metal continues to reach new record highs. Analysts at the bank believe the upward momentum remains intact. Goldman forecasts that gold will reach $4,000 by mid-2026 and $4,300 by December 2026. However, the bank cautioned that upside risks beyond these projections are emerging. Notably, speculative flows account for only about 1% of the recent 14% rally, signaling stronger and more sustainable support from ETFs and central banks. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, commented: “Gold has risen for the seventh consecutive week, having declined in only one week since late July. The U.S. government shutdown, Europe’s debate over reusing Russian reserves, and ongoing hybrid tensions across Europe have all contributed to this rally.” He added, “A short-term support level has formed near $3,800, and reaching $4,000 no longer seems far-fetched.” Similarly, Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, noted: “The market trend remains bullish. The U.S. economy has not improved—if anything, it has deteriorated further. Central banks and global investors clearly recognize this and continue accumulating gold.” For this week, considerable uncertainty surrounds the U.S. data release calendar. If Democrats and Republicans manage to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill early in the week, the September employment report could be released on schedule Friday. Estimates suggest a modest improvement in job creation, with around 50,000 new positions, though the weak ADP private payrolls data paints a more cautious picture. Still, downside risks to employment remain, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts. Even if the jobs report is delayed, the ongoing government shutdown alone could drive markets to increase bets on rate reductions, as a surge in furloughed federal workers and reduced economic output from halted government operations may compel the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Beyond Washington’s political standoff, investors’ focus this week will be on the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, which could reveal growing divisions among policymakers over the labor market outlook. The Fed’s latest dot plot highlights a widening gap between hawkish and dovish members, meaning any new clues in the minutes about the timing or pace of rate cuts could spark a strong market reaction. Toward the end of the week, attention will also turn to the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey, particularly the inflation expectations component, which holds significant weight for gauging domestic demand. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury market faces a busy schedule of debt auctions, adding another layer of focus for investors.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD LONGI have maintained a buy position for quite a while, based on last week's performance, the bullish momentum is slowing down. Going forward the bulls will depend on a new catalyst. The fed officials have maintained a divergent rate cut rhetoric while at the same the US government is experiencing a shutdown. These has made traders to remain cautious. This week we have quite a number of events lined up, including FOMC and NFP. Any negative news towards the dollar while at the same time ECB's Christine Largade maintaining a stability will mean a retest for the pair towards the years high around 1.19200. Better news for the dollar will mean on lower time frames reversal and higher time frames deeper retracements.
Long
by WisdomArnold
USD/CHF Bulls Eye 0.8080 – But Is a Trap Coming First?🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,541), shorts decreased (-1,009). → Speculators turning more bullish on the Dollar. CHF Futures: Non-commercial longs rose (+1,992), shorts declined (-1,030). → Speculators also turning more bullish on the Swiss Franc. 📌 Combined Result: Strength on both USD and CHF, but the imbalance favors the Dollar. 🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning) 74% long USD/CHF vs 26% short. 📌 Retail is heavily long → contrarian signal → risk of a downside correction, even though the macro setup still favors USD. 🔹 Seasonality October is historically bearish for USD/CHF (average -0.01 to -0.02 over the last 10–20 years). November tends to be neutral, while December is again weak. 📌 Seasonal bias → contradicts Dollar strength, adding short-term downside risk. 🔹 Price Action Price consolidating around 0.7980, after a recovery from the BPR (Balanced Price Range). Structure suggests possible continuation higher toward the 0.8050–0.8080 supply zone. RSI neutral, with room for further upside. A break below 0.7940 would invalidate the bullish scenario and expose downside toward 0.7900.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Stop!Loss|Market View: GBPUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the GBPUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.34096 💰TP: 1.32908 ⛔️SL: 1.35270 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: As with the euro, sell priority is looked for in the pound. A potential short-term entry near the 1.34000 area is being monitored. A pending order is used for a more conservative entry, and the best option is to wait for the price to close below this area and then look for a sell trade. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Short
by StopLoss222
2
EURUSD BULLSA lot of traders are anticipating sell direction, most have already sold at around 1.17700 zone. For me I still hold a bullish bias due to: 1. Although technical analysis leaves room to catch sells the pair still maintains an uptrend. Therefore, based on recent events claiming a US government shut down, conflicting views on rate cuts from Fed officials and NFP Lining up on Friday creating a risk on mood, I find it wise to sell towards NfP. Any lower than expected will confirm the bulls further and focus can shift to 1.192000 and later 1.20000. But higher than expected will mean that the Fed will keep interest rates steady and a reversal will be confirmed.
Long
by WisdomArnold
The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence TightensRetail flushed. Institutions trapped. The Fed flying blind. Welcome to October. The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence Tightens Why the AI Bubble Narrative Just Got Its Lehman Moment This post is a direct sequel to my September thesis: If you haven’t read that, start there⬇️ - this builds on the trigger map 🗺️. The BLUEBERRY:SP500 continues hovering near cycle highs at 6,700, but structural cracks are widening beneath the surface. The AI-led rally driven by NASDAQ:NVDA $100 billion commitment to OpenAI shows classic signs of saturation: volume decay, RSI divergence, and what analysts are now calling "circular financing." Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which then turns around and spends it back on Nvidia chips - this is the capex circularity that marks bubble peaks. With the U.S. government shutdown now confirmed as of October 1, 2025, macro liquidity stress adds a critical new layer of fragility. This aligns perfectly with our thesis: August CME:BTC1! top + September 30 shutdown = narrative inflection zone. I remain cautious on TVC:SPX upside and alert for volatility expansion. Cycle echoes from 2007-2008 are in play. The boom is fragile. The Fed now faces a critical blindfold - key data streams are frozen mid-cycle. Without payrolls, inflation prints, or consumer metrics during the shutdown, policy decisions risk catastrophic miscalibration at the exact moment when precision matters most. 🧭 Why This Convergence Matters I am not claiming that IG:BITCOIN and SP:SPX are traditionally correlated - even though the chart shows an eerily close alignment over the past decade. I'm mapping trigger timing across asset classes - the simultaneous exhaustion of different market participants: BTC top (August 2025) = Retail exhaustion. The most speculative, leveraged traders have already been flushed out. When crypto peaks first, it signals risk appetite is rolling over. SPX stall (September 2025) = Institutional fragility. The "smart money" that rotated from crypto into AI stocks is now trapped at peak valuations with nowhere left to rotate. Shutdown (October 1, 2025) = Macro blindfold. Just as markets need maximum visibility, the government turns off the economic data dashboard. The Fed is flying blind. Together, they form a convergent signal - just like Lehman + SP:SPX top + credit freeze in September 2008 . These weren't correlated, they were coincidental triggers that revealed the same underlying disease: excess leverage meeting liquidity shock. 📌 The Three Inflection Markers 🔹 Nvidia's $100B Commitment to OpenAI 📆 Date: September 22, 2025 Details: NASDAQ:NVDA pledged up to $100 billion to deploy 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure for OpenAI progressively, marking peak capex saturation in the AI infrastructure buildout. The Circular Financing Problem: Think of it like a closed-loop economy where the same money keeps circulating without creating real external demand. NASDAQ:NVDA invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which OpenAI then gives back to NASDAQ:NVDA for chips and infrastructure. This isn't wealth creation, it's musical chairs with capital. When the music stops, the question becomes: who's actually making money selling AI services to end customers? Echo: Mirrors NASDAQ:CSCO dot-com era infrastructure frenzy, when telecom companies borrowed billions to buy Cisco equipment, creating the illusion of sustainable demand until the debt bubble popped. 🔹 The Cisco Precedent: When Infrastructure Investment Becomes Speculation 📆 Date: March 27, 2000 Peak Valuation: ~$550 billion - briefly the most valuable company in the world The Story: During the dot-com boom, everyone "knew" the internet would change everything. They were right. But NASDAQ:CSCO still crashed 70%+ and never regained its 2000 peak even 25 years later. Why? Capex-driven euphoria created demand that didn't exist organically. Telecom companies and startups borrowed money to build infrastructure faster than actual usage could justify. When funding dried up, demand evaporated overnight, leaving NASDAQ:CSCO with inventory, overcapacity, and shocked investors. 2025 Parallel: Everyone "knows" AI will change everything. They're probably right. But that doesn't mean NASDAQ:NVDA at current valuations survives the transition. The infrastructure buildout is running ahead of monetizable demand - classic late-cycle behavior. 🔹 U.S. Government Shutdown - The Macro Blindfold 📆 Start Date: October 1, 2025 at 12:01 AM Trigger: Congressional deadlock over partisan spending bill and healthcare provisions The Economic Data Blackout: During shutdowns, critical federal data releases get delayed or suspended: Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs reports, unemployment, wage data) Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, consumer spending, inflation components) Census Bureau (retail sales, construction, housing data) Federal Reserve inputs for policy decisions Why This Is Catastrophic Timing: The Fed is trying to navigate a soft landing while cutting ECONOMICS:USINTR rates with unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising. That requires precise, real-time data. Instead, they're getting a multi-week (or multi-month) information blackout at the exact moment when leading indicators are rolling over. It's like turning off your GPS while driving through a construction zone at night. Historical Parallel - 2008: Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, but the Fed thought they'd contained it. Lehman failed in September because policymakers were operating on lagged, incomplete data about how quickly the contagion was spreading. The shutdown creates a similar fog of war. The Convergence Thesis: Three Dominoes, One Direction These three events aren't causing each other - they're revealing the same underlying condition: peak leverage meeting exhaustion. 1️⃣ Stage 1 (August): Retail speculators in crypto get wiped out first. BTC tops at $109K, starts rolling over. This is the canary in the coal mine - the most risk-seeking capital runs out of buyers. 2️⃣ Stage 2 (September): Institutional money realizes the AI trade is overcrowded. Nvidia's circular financing deal with OpenAI triggers analyst warnings about an AI bubble. Smart money starts quietly rotating to cash and defensives, but the indexes stay elevated due to passive flows and concentration in mega-caps. 3️⃣ Stage 3 (October): Government dysfunction removes the Fed's ability to respond quickly or accurately. Markets lose confidence that policymakers can even see the problems, let alone fix them. Volatility expands as uncertainty compounds. Think of it like a forest fire. INDEX:BTCUSD was the dry brush catching first. The AI stocks are the trees - bigger, but still combustible. The government shutdown is the wind that accelerates the spread. You don't need correlation between brush, trees, and wind to know the conditions are perfect for disaster. What Happens Next: The Three Scenarios 🟠 Scenario 1: Controlled Decline (45% probability) Shutdown resolved within 2-3 weeks SP:SPX corrects to 6,400-6,200 range (-5 to -10%) Fed pauses cuts, reassesses within Q4 Market stabilizes but stays defensive through year-end This is the "best case" - pain, but manageable 🔵 Scenario 2: Accelerated Unwind (40% probability) Shutdown extends 4+ weeks, economic data gap widens SPX breaks 6,000, triggers algorithmic selling cascade Target: 5,200-5,500 range (-20 to -25%) Credit spreads widen, corporate debt refinancing concerns emerge This is my base case - the scenario I'm positioned for 🔴 Scenario 3: Systemic Event (15% probability) Shutdown coincides with unexpected credit event (corporate default, regional bank stress) Multiple margin calls and forced liquidations SPX crashes to 4,500-4,800 range (-30 to -35%) Fed emergency intervention required (rate cuts, QE restart) Low probability, but non-zero - the true "black swan" outcome 📊 Technical Setup: The Chart Doesn't Lie Current Level: 6,700 (near all-time highs) Key Support Levels: 6,200: Previous resistance turned support - first real test 5,800: 200-day moving average - psychological line in sand 5,200: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement - institutional rebalancing zone 4,500: 2024 breakout level - panic capitulation target ⚠️ Warning Signals Already Visible: Market breadth deteriorating (fewer stocks making new highs) Defensive sectors outperforming (utilities, healthcare, staples) Credit spreads starting to widen (HYG/TLT ratio declining) VIX base level rising from 12 to 16+ (fear premium expanding) The Bottom Line: Risk/Reward Is Clear At SP:SPX 6,700 with the Fed flying blind, AI capex circularity exposed, and retail already flushed from crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL , the risk/reward for long positions is terrible. You're risking 10-15% to potentially gain what - another 3-5% before reality hits? Smart money is raising cash, buying volatility, and preparing shopping lists for when quality names trade at distressed prices. The convergence of COINBASE:BTCUSD top, NASDAQ:NVDA circular financing peak, and government shutdown isn't causing a crisis - it's revealing that we're already in the early stages of one. August was the warning. September was the setup. October is the trigger. The market doesn't need to crash tomorrow, but the margin of safety has disappeared. When the next shoe drops - earnings disappointment, credit event, geopolitical shock, employment spike - there's no cushion left. Only air. Position accordingly. Until the next trigger - Nicholas. Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal views and analysis. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
SP:SPXShort
by niclaxfx
22
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to support at the beginning of the week, hopefully in to the red box, and then push upside into the higher red box. This move worked well for the long trade, however, it was at that region we ideally wanted to short back down into the lower liquidity pools. We didn’t get this move due to the red box breaking above, so we continued with the bias and the target levels and managed to complete some fantastic long trades, as well as an extremely decent short hitting Excalibur on the nose. Not a bad week, even though the plan wasn’t as successful as tends to be. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We had bullish Friday after the break out, but the last few hours you can see some profit taking in process. We’re now still above our bias level 3740-45 but the issue we have here is there is still no breach of the red box defence above, which again held strong late session on Friday. We’re also flagging which is another concern, so, for that reason, we’ll say, resistance above is the 3767-75 region, which if targeted and held during the early session can take us back into the order region 3750-40 which is where a potential opportunity may come to attempt the long trade upside to target that all time high again. Please note, the 3795-3810 needs a strong daily close above it to go higher, so we won’t be looking to get trapped high in a potential move that can turn again! That for us is the level to watch if price attempts that level. We have a lot of news this week including NFP, with tomorrow looking like it could be a ranging day playing those order regions. It's the last few days of the month, so we'll have to play level to level intra-day and wait for the monthly close for a clearer picture. Right now, levels are level, boxes are boxes, we'll stick with the plan and move with the market where ever it goes. RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3765 for 3773, 3777, 3785, 3796 and 3802 in extension of the move Break below 3750 for 3744, 3740, 3732 and 3720 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
20
NAS100 - Stock Market Awaits Employment Data!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the upward momentum decreases, we can expect a correction to the demand range and buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk. According to reports released over the weekend, UBS stated that there is a 93% probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year. This figure implicitly suggests that the country may already be in recession, though some analysts remain skeptical of such a direct conclusion. UBS’s projection is based on indicators such as personal income, consumption, industrial production, and employment. The bank warned that the U.S. economy has reached “historically troubling levels,” though no outright collapse has yet occurred. Analysts at UBS described the economy as “weak, soft, and fragile,” while noting that a definitive declaration of recession has not been made. In the United States, an official declaration of recession is the responsibility of the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which typically makes such calls with a lag of 6 to 18 months after the recession has started. Their assessment relies on revised data covering GDP, employment, income, sales, and production, and they generally avoid premature decisions. In the meantime, policymakers and markets tend to act on real-time indicators such as GDP estimates, jobs data, yield curve signals, and credit spreads. In practice, traders react more strongly to price movements than to formal definitions of recession. Separately, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, dismissed Fed board member Steven Miran’s call for cutting rates to 2.5% or lower. The bank has maintained its forecast for gradual 25-basis-point cuts, targeting a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by early next year. A potential Supreme Court case involving Fed board member Lisa Cook has also emerged as a “wild card,” since a ruling against her could undermine the positions of other members as well. J.P. Morgan has warned that politicization of the Federal Reserve would leave the institution more vulnerable to pressure from a Trump administration on monetary policy. The U.S. dollar remained relatively strong this week, as investors continued to parse the Fed’s less-dovish stance. While the latest dot plot showed policymakers aligned with the market on two additional rate cuts this year, the median dot for 2026 pointed to only one more 25-basis-point reduction. By contrast, markets still expect as many as three cuts next year. However, following Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone on Tuesday—emphasizing that the Fed must continue balancing the competing risks of elevated inflation and a weakening labor market—investors scaled back some of their bets. Inflation risks remain significant. The OECD highlighted this week that the full effects of tariff hikes are still unfolding. What supports Powell’s cautious approach is that, despite signs of labor market weakness, the Fed’s own forecasts remain relatively optimistic, with economic activity showing resilience. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 3.3% growth for Q3. Although last week’s inflation data failed to dampen market optimism for rate cuts—and equities continued their rally—the focus in the coming week will shift back to labor market conditions. The week begins Monday with pending home sales data. On Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report and the consumer confidence index will be released. Wednesday brings private-sector employment data from ADP, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims will be published as usual. All of these releases will build up to Friday’s critical nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, widely seen as the market’s ultimate test.Investors will closely monitor whether recent labor market weakness persists, and whether the Fed can move another step toward a rate cut at the October meeting. Finally, the ISM Services Index will provide a more comprehensive picture of U.S. economic health. Ahead of the jobs data, traders may also take note of remarks from several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Logan. The ADP and NFP releases on Wednesday will likely provide the first snapshot of September labor market performance.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
Critical jobs data you need to watch this week Fresh labor market data will likely be the focus this week, with payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth all carrying weight for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stronger-than-expected job reports could revive dollar demand, while weaker figures may keep pressure on the greenback as markets price in further Fed easing. Nonfarm payrolls for September are projected at 39K, a modest improvement from August’s 22K, but still far below the levels seen through most of 2023 and earlier years (chart, top left). The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% (chart, top right). Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-on-month, matching August’s gain. That would keep annual wage growth steady, reflecting sticky wage pressures even as job creation softens. The JOLTS job openings series remains elevated at 7.3 million (chart, bottom left), but still well below the peaks of 2022. This suggests firms are slower to post new jobs, but demand has not collapsed entirely.
by BlackBull Markets
HYPE 4H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you ! ⏰ We’re analyzing HYPE on the 4-Hour timeframe . 👀 On the 4H timeframe for HyperLiquid coin, we can see that the project is managed by the decentralized HyperLiquid exchange, which has become one of the notable platforms these days and has strong backing. Shortly after the news, the coin started moving toward its resistance but got rejected with a whale 4H candle from the $4,767 zone. Compared to other coins, this one has held up quite well and hasn’t gone through a deep correction. Yesterday’s rejection zone after the NFP news serves as a solid trigger point and even gives us a tight stop-loss setup. ⚙️ The key RSI level for HyperLiquid is around 70, which is the Overbought threshold. If RSI pushes beyond this zone, HyperLiquid could continue upward. Another point is that the coin’s recent price action has been moving along a trendline and has held well above the 50 level for several days. 🕯 The volume and size of HyperLiquid’s green candles have increased, showing strong upward momentum. Each time it forms a higher low, buyers respect the level and push in more volume. Based on this behavior and the previous leg up, the coin is now close to its all-time high, and with market strength, it has the potential to break that level and move higher. 📊 Looking at HyperLiquid vs. Bitcoin, there isn’t a chart available on TradingView, but you can see it on CoinMarketCap. HyperLiquid is a whale-favorite coin and has shown strong bullish performance against Bitcoin, moving steadily upward. 🔔 The alert zone for HYPE is at $47.67. If this level breaks, the coin could start a strong bullish move and head toward its all-time high. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
Long
by CryptosWinter
NFP "Goldilocks" playbook? EURUSD triggers revealed!Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing. Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut this month and possibly another by year-end. Catalysts : Recent softer labour data and dovish Fed commentary have fueled bets on a more accommodative policy stance. EUR/USD Conditional Scenarios Key Levels: Support at 1.1524, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1625; Resistance at 1.1700, 1.1735, 1.1760, 1.1830 Scenarios : Strong NFP : Sell 1.1650–1.1670, targets 1.1600/1.1580/1.1524, stop 1.1700 Goldilocks NFP : Range trade 1.1625–1.1700, buy/sell at edges, stops 1.1580/1.1720 Weak NFP : Buy 1.1630–1.1650, targets 1.1735/1.1760/1.1830, stop 1.1600 Risk : 1–2% per trade, always use stops, watch for ECB-driven reversals This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
7
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the Range with Fundamentals🔼 Bullish Plan (primary focus) Trigger: A clean 30m body close above $3,649.14 (not just a wick). Targets: First into $3,653.32. If momentum extends, room opens into $3,657–$3,660 zone. 🌍 Fundamentals Supporting the Move Fed rate cut odds at 100% → policy easing reduces real yields → bullish. CPI sticky but real yields still trending lower → long-term upside. DXY + yields soft, safe-haven + central bank demand strong → gold’s floor is firm. 1️⃣ Fed Policy – The Main Driver Fed Rate Cut Odds at 100% → Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Lower interest rates directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. This shifts flows from bonds/dollar into safe-haven assets. Traders are positioning ahead of confirmation, keeping dips supported. 2️⃣ Inflation Outlook – CPI as a Near-Term Catalyst U.S. CPI expectations remain elevated. Sticky inflation has capped some of gold’s upside in the short term. However, inflation + falling interest rates = real yields decline, which is structurally bullish for gold. The market is currently balancing “sticky CPI” against the certainty of Fed easing. 3️⃣ Dollar & Yields – Supporting Gold’s Floor U.S. Treasury yields have eased as traders anticipate policy cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has struggled to extend rallies, despite inflation worries, because Fed policy is already tilted dovish. This mix keeps gold resilient, even during intraday pullbacks. Management: Take partials at the first target. Move SL to breakeven once $3,649 is defended. Trail remainder toward extended upside if momentum candles build. ✅ What Confirms the Move Strong 30m body close through $3,649.14. Retest holds as support. Expansion candles with follow-through buying. ❌ What Invalidates Breakout closes back under $3,649 on the next bar (likely trap). Sharp wick rejections with no continuation. 📌 Bottom Line: Only interested in longs above $3,649.14 → upside bias toward $3,653+ and $3,657–$3,660. No shorts considered as fundamentals and rate cut odds heavily favor bullish setups.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by fxt8
#NFB/USDT Forming Descending Channel #NFB The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We have a bearish trend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upside. There is a major support area (marked in green) at 0.0600, which represents a strong basis for the upside. For inquiries, please leave a comment. We are in a consolidation trend above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 0.0665 First target: 0.0693 Second target: 0.0740 Third target: 0.0798 Don't forget a simple matter: capital management. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Japan's GDP sparkles, yen pushes higherThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day. The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%. This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%. The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy. The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October. US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62 There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35
by OANDA
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 14💀 Hey, how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you! ⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe. 🔭 On the 1H timeframe for Ethereum, we can see that after yesterday’s news, ETH pushed upward toward the top of its range but failed to break out. From that resistance, it faced a heavy rejection, and this drop happened within just two 1H candles! At the moment, ETH is in a consolidation zone, and breaking out of this compression could provide us with an entry. ⛏ The key RSI oscillator levels are at 38 and 50. Once RSI breaks above or below these zones, Ethereum could start its next move following the effects of yesterday’s NFP news. 💰 The size and volume of red candles have increased sharply, showing strong selling pressure. The corrective bounce happened step by step, but then another fairly large red 1H candle was printed. With continued selling pressure, Ethereum may test lower price levels. 🪙 On the 1H timeframe for the ETHBTC pair, we can see it is moving inside a multi-timeframe range. Each time it reaches the bottom of the box, volume increases and the price reacts with zig-zag moves. Note that the bottom of this box is at 0.03864, which has already been tested twice. This area should be considered as a short alert zone for ETHBTC. 💡 The alert zones for Ethereum itself are at 4,272$ and 4,338$. If either of these levels is broken, ETH could start a strong move, especially considering the momentum after yesterday’s NFP News. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
by CryptosWinter
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 34💀 Hey, how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you! ⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe. 👀 On the 1H timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after yesterday’s NFP news, Bitcoin moved toward its resistance levels but then faced a very strong rejection. Personally, I expected some big green candles after that news. Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating, and the top and bottom of this range should be considered as breakout zones. ⚙️ The key RSI levels for Bitcoin are around 42 and 53. Once RSI breaks out of this range, Bitcoin can start its new move following the impacts of yesterday. 🕯 The size and volume of the red candles after the news increased sharply, and with one strong selling-pressure candle, the price dropped from the top of the range to the bottom. 💵📊 On the 1H timeframe for USDT.D, we can see that after yesterday’s news it had a very strong reaction from its support area and, with one massive hourly whale candle, pushed up toward its resistance at 4.49%. From there, it got rejected with several red candles and formed a higher low compared to its previous bottom. Keep in mind that if 4.49% is broken, Bitcoin could go into a deeper correction. 🔔 The alert zones for Bitcoin are the top and bottom of this range, which can give us entry signals. Our long alert zone is at 11,600$, and if this level breaks, Bitcoin could move higher. On the other hand, 11,056$ is our short alert zone, and with a breakdown of this level and selling pressure, Bitcoin could push toward lower levels. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
by CryptosWinter
THE KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For this months NFP, due to the aggressive stretch on gold upside, we’re only looking for the extreme levels to attempt the trade. Even then, we’re of the view that we will let this play out for today and next week look for a clean reversal before getting in and taking what is needed. We have the immediate level of support below 3550-40, which needs to be held in order to attempt the upside levels of 3580-5 and if that level is broken 3603-10. It’s that higher level that we feel if attempted, could present a decent opportunity to attempt the short trade, unless broken of course. Lower down, the red box bias level is sitting at 3540 which needs a clean break below to then confirm the bearish move has started and we can then either capture the retracements in attempt to target the 3480-5 level or, wait lower for price to exhaust, and once a clean reversal is formed, attempt the long trade back upside. The ideal scenario here is a break above the 3585 level an attempt on 3600, exhaustion there and then a possible short for next week. It’s been a choppy week but we’ve hit all of our bullish targets so lets observe more than we trade today. RED BOXES: Break above 3555 for 3561, 3568, 3576 and 3588 in extension of the move Break below 3540 for 3533, 3530, 3520, 3506 and 3490 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
24
UK retail sales beat estimate, US nonfarm payrolls sink, pound jThe British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report. It was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship. The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%. Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%. All eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence. This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut. GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.3552 1.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support
by OANDA