4th Quarter 2025 Nigerian share picks Update...Percentage Down!Q4 2025 TradingView: Nigerian Stock Picks Update (November Performance)
In spite of the NGX market having the worst performance since 2013 this past month of November 2025. These were the Strong Performers with some Notable Gains in our portfolio.
ARADEL:Up +22.9, leading the market with strong bullish momentum and heavy accumulation interest in the energy sector.
LEGENDINT:Gained +3.7%, reflecting renewed investor confidence and stable buy-side activity.
HMCALL:Increased +3.7%, showing solid stability with quiet but consistent upward pressure.
DANGCEM:Up +1.8%, maintaining its position as a reliable defensive stock with strong industrial demand.
VSPBONDETF:Slight increase of +0.9%, still holding its steady climb.
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Decliners
TRANSPOWER:Down –2.2%, a modest pullback but still structurally intact for Q4.
VFDGROUP:Dropped –7.8%, facing correction after its earlier strength.
MULTIVERSE:Down –27.7%, the steepest decline of the group, giving up a major portion of previous gains.
SUNUASSUR:Fell –26.2%, reflecting continuing weakness in the insurance sector.
CONOIL:Dropped –11.3% aligned with the broader slump in downstream oil stocks.
Overall Market Sentiment
The portfolio shows mixed sentiment heading deeper into Q4.
Energy (ARADEL) continue to lead market strength.
Insurance and mining names dragged the overall portfolio lower.
Stable performers (LEGENDINT and HMCALL) provided resilience amid volatility.
📌 Average Percentage Change (Across All Stocks): –4.2%
This indicates a slightly bearish tilt overall, driven mainly by deep declines in insurance and mining stocks, despite strong gains in select energy names.
Investing Takeaway for November
Q4 showcases clear sector divergence, Maybe Lock in profits from out-performers like ARADEL
Accumulate dips on stable, steady performers such as HMCALL and LEGENDINT
Approach high-volatility stocks (MULTIVERSE and SUNUASSUR) with tighter risk controls.
**Not Financial Advice (NFA).**
NGX
$ellahlakes Ellahlakes over-39% Retracement from 19.4naira/shareELLAH LAKES – Weekly Technical Outlook
NSENG:ELLAHLAKES Ellahlakes over-39% Retracement from 19.4naira/share All time High
Current price: 11.75naira per share
Ellah Lakes has retraced from its all-time high of ₦19.4 to a current low around ₦11.74 — a healthy 39% correction from the peak. This type of retracement is typical of a market cooling off after a strong impulsive move, not a structural breakdown.
Price is now retesting previous supports and a possible accumulation zones where fresh demand could emerge.
Rebuy Zone btw ₦10.95– ₦12.70:
This zone sits near the last major breakout level — a classic area for price to retest and confirm as support. If bulls defend this area, it could trigger the next impulsive leg higher.
Rebuy Zone btw ₦8.90 – ₦10.95:
A deeper liquidity level and structural base. Only comes into play if the retracement extends further, but it offers an excellent accumulation opportunity in a longer-term bullish context.
**Targets:**
TP1 remains ₦17.50, which coincides with previous resistance just below the all-time high.
TP2 sits at ₦23.05 — a Fibonacci extension move if momentum resumes and buyers reclaim control.
As long as price holds above ₦8.90 on the weekly timeframe, the broader bullish structure remains valid. Invalidation of this idea is Under 8.90naira per share. This is not financial Advice!!
**Summary:**
Ellah Lakes is undergoing a standard 35–40% retracement within a larger uptrend. The defined rebuy zones (₦12.70, ₦10.95, ₦8.90) represent sound areas to monitor for signs of reversal and accumulation before the next rally leg develops. Else further decline! NFA
Will $Aradel Aradel Fractal Setup Repeat? Down -18% from ATHARADEL’s Fractal Setup — Will History Repeat?
Is Aradel ( NSENG:ARADEL ) moving in repeating fractals? — a pattern of strong rallies, quick pauses, sharp pullbacks, and steep recoveries. Each dip in this sequence has so far created the foundation for the next rally leg, showing how market psychology often mirrors itself on the chart. Current price: 710naira/share
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The First Fractal
The first major pattern appeared when price rallied from **₦520 → ₦689 (+29%)**, followed by a mild correction of about –13%.
That retracement found support around the moving average zone, after which the stock continued its steady climb — confirming strong buyer re-entry at lower levels.
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The Current Setup
This latest fractal looks even more aggressive.
Price surged from ₦580 → ₦869 (+49%) before pulling back sharply — already down roughly –18%.
Currently, the ₦710 zone is acting as a short-term support level.
If this area holds, it could mark the end of the correction and the start of the next bullish swing.
The Fractal Projection
If history rhymes once more, the next upward leg could target the **₦950–₦1,000** resistance range — a natural extension zone aligning with prior swing highs.
However, a decisive breakdown below **₦624** would invalidate the fractal and signal a deeper retracement phase, possibly toward the longer-term trend support.
Summary
* Current support: ₦710 (key pivot)
* Fractal invalidation: ₦624
* Next potential target: ₦950–₦1,000
* Trend bias: Bullish if ₦710 holds; neutral-to-bearish if ₦624 breaks.
Fractals don’t predict price — they simply hint where institutional interest and historical rhythm may align. #ARADEL #NGX #NigerianStocks #PriceAction #FractalPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingNigeria
$Conoil Conoil price currently devalued - Over 45% Retracement!NSENG:CONOIL Conoil PLC is a leading downstream energy company in Nigeria, active in marketing refined petroleum products, lubricants and LPG. Latest data shows: Revenue (TTM) of ~ ₦286.2 billion, net income ~ ₦1.65 billion, P/E approximately 88.7×. The main risk: margins are under pressure, cost of sales rising, and recent performance has disappointed in short-term horizon. Conoil main strength: strong brand, wide distribution network, and established business in Nigeria’s energy sector.
After a strong parabolic rally, CONOIL is now in a corrective phase of about 45%. I’m preparing to accumulate gradually—not all at once—as price approaches long-term value areas.
The Plan:
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) slowly into weakness, targeting the 200 EMA as my final support zone. This approach reduces risk and smooths my entry cost over time.
Buy Zones:
₦230–₦200: Light entries (early DCA)
₦180–₦160: Moderate accumulation
₦160–₦145: Heavy accumulation (near 200 EMA)
Each tranche increases exposure as price nears fair value.
Why the 200 EMA?
The 200 EMA often acts as the “fair value” line—after strong trends, price tends to return here before establishing a new base. It’s where patient money usually steps back in.
Planned Targets After Reversal:
TP1 → ₦314: Retest of structural resistance
TP2/TP3 → ₦403 / ₦501: Full cycle recovery / momentum expansion. Once the trend turns, these are the resistance zones I’ll be watching.
Risk Management:
Idea invalidation if weekly candle closes below ₦145, that’s a break of structure. I’ll pause or sell off accumulation until price stabilises or forms a clear base.
Not Financial Advice!!
The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGXGROUPThe Nigerian Exchange Group (NGXGROUP) is the company that owns and operates the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), where other companies’ stocks are traded.
Because of this role, NGXGROUP’s performance is partly linked to the overall health of the Nigerian stock market.
When trading activity is high, more companies list their shares, and investor confidence is strong, NGXGROUP often benefits — so its stock price tends to rise when the broader market is doing well.
However, NGXGROUP is not just another listed company; it operates as a business that earns revenue from transaction fees, data services, and market operations. This means its stock may not always move exactly in line with the general market. At times, internal company decisions, management performance, or regulatory issues can cause its price to move differently from other Nigerian stocks.
Overall, NGXGROUP’s share price shows a positive but not perfect correlation with the rest of the market. It tends to move in the same direction as the Nigerian Exchange Index but with less intensity — meaning it rises and falls with the market but not as sharply. Historical data shows it has even outperformed the market in certain periods, suggesting both market-driven and company-specific factors influence its performance.
TECHNICAL VIEW:
This asset retraced to FIB 61.8%, which is a critical level.
If all things are equal, the push-up that has started should continue from here.
MY buy: N60
TP: N80
trade with care
What is your view on ZENITH Bank Plc on NGX?What is your view on ZENITH Bank Plc on NGX?
This asset is likely pushing back up after its pullback from its All Time High (ATH) around the N78.5 zone.
My technical analysis view:
There is a formation of higher highs and higher lows indicated by the purple path.
With an entry of N68.6, I will be targeting RR of of 2.53.
TP will be at it's last ATH of N78.5
My projection for GTCO on NGXMy projection for GTCO on NGX.
GTCO is currently trading at N95. After my analysis, I conclude that this asset is likely to gain over 30% upward with mid to long-term holding.
I will be entering at CMP N95 with two positions, and my take profit will be N103 and N130, respectively
Please trade with care
Final Update on My Third Quarter Nigeria Stocks.. percentage up!Here's a summary and update on my third quarter 2025 Nigeria stock picks based on the price comparison from July to September 2025:
Q3 2025 Trading View: Nigerian Stock Picks Update
Strong Performers with Significant Gains:
- BUACEMENT: Up approximately 52%, maintaining strong momentum as a leader in the cement sector.
- ETRANZACT: Surged over 130%, showing explosive growth in the tech/payment sector partnership with FIRS.
- ELLAHLAKES: Rose by 73%, indicating a promising position in its market.
- MULTIVERSE: Grew nearly 59%, reflecting healthy gains in diversified technology.
- DANGSUGAR: Increased by about 28%, notable growth in the sugar segment.
- NB: Up nearly 19%, solid growth.
- DANGCEM: Cement sector share climbed by over 17%.
Moderate or Slight Decline:
- ARADEL: Grew by about 8.8%, steady but less pronounced growth.
- HMCALL: Slight decline of about 2.4%, stable but marginally down.
- TRANSPOWER: Minor decrease near 1.9%, holding relatively steady.
Overall Market Sentiment:
- Average gain across my nigerian stocks was 37.27% from July to September 2025, reflecting strong positive momentum through the third quarter.
- This aligns with the broader Nigerian stock market trends, where the NGX All-Share Index gained over 16% in July and sustained overall bullishness into Q3 2025 supported by growth in industrial goods, cement, and tech sectors.
- Investors continue to show confidence especially in infrastructure materials and tech/payment companies, sectors driving market capitalization growth.
Investor Takeaway:
- My Q3 2025 stock picks exhibit robust growth potential, particularly in cement, technology, and payment solutions sectors.
- Conservative performers like ARADEL provide portfolio stability, while high-growth stocks such as ETRANZACT and ELLAHLAKES offer significant upside..
See you in My Final Quarter Q4 Picks for the year 2025
Cheers!
$hmcall Hmcall Haldane Mccall Plc price at -40% DiscountNSENG:HMCALL Hmcall Haldane McCall operates in Nigerian real estate development and hospitality via subsidiaries Suru Homes and Suru Express Hotels.
Current price: 4.05 naira per share
hmcall Current price is -40% discount of previous all time high of 6.8naira per share. There is a likelihood that prices will stabilize around here as there is a double bottom formation in price action and Moneywave indication just turned upward from negative territory,
My buy zone: 4.05 - 4.72 (Not financial Advice)
Assuming a reversal in price.
Tp1 = 6.50naira per share and
Tp2 = 8.35naira per share (assuming bullish momentum is sustained)
#Hmcall Idea is invalidated under 4naira per share
BUACEMENT failed to break its All Time HighBUACEMENT Fails to Break Its All-Time High
BUA Cement Plc (NGX: BUACEMENT) has seen significant price swings over the past two years.
The initial momentum that pushed the stock above the ₦100 mark in January 2024 carried it to an all-time high (ATH) of around ₦185. However, this rally was followed by a prolonged downtrend, with the stock declining to approximately ₦83 by March 2025.
A renewed breakout in mid-July 2025 brought BUACEMENT close to retesting its historical peak, but buying momentum was insufficient to break through the ATH.
Technical View
Resistance: ₦185 remains the critical resistance zone.
Support Levels: Watch for weakness below ₦144, which could accelerate a decline. Key zones to monitor include ₦120 and ₦100.
Strategy: A dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach around ₦120 could provide a more favorable entry point for long-term investors. Patience and discipline remain essential in this setup.
📌 This outlook is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade and invest responsibly.
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From Fish Farming to Agribusiness Giant: Ellah Lakes’ 304% Rise Ellah Lakes Plc is a Nigeria‑based agribusiness firm, once focused on fish farming but now primarily engaged in oil palm, cassava, maize, soya, and rice production and processing, operating plantations across Edo, Ondo, Enugu, Ekiti (Nigeria) and Ghana.
This asset has made roughly 304% gain since 2nd of June of this year.
The questions are:
1. Is this vertical growth sustainable?
2. Will price action be respected technically as shown on the chart?
3. Will Ellah Lake drop back to close the yellow gap? (N5.3 - N6 zone)
My final view:
After a 304% gain since June, I am now questioning the sustainability of this vertical move, key technical zones, and whether a price correction to the ₦5.3–₦6 gap is on the horizon
Trade with care
AIICO Insurance aggressive channel breakoutAIICO Insurance's aggressive channel breakout.
The strong breakout rewarded investors with over 61% ROI last week alone.
While I am bullish on the Nigerian insurance sector because of the new insurance reform, I am patiently waiting for some of this stock to retrace for my entry for a ride into 2026
I would love to start buying AIICO from N2.3 using Dollar Cost Averaging strategy
I would love to hear from you.
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How I view Dangote CementHow I view Dangote Cement.
Technically:
N480 & N400 have been a strong psychological resistance zone for some time now.
Fundamentally:
The news that Dangote is planning to build a deep-sea port is a positive catalyst if it comes to fruition.
My entry:
I am looking at a buy entry from N400 using DCA.
I will continue to add if it falls below my N400 entry.
Trade with care
FTN Cocoa has more than doubled price in 3 weeksFTN Cocoa has more than doubled its price in 3 weeks.
The questions are
1. Is this sustainable
2. What is the catalyst for this accelerated rise
However, my thought is clear on the chart. A fall below those levels may push it lower. But if the momentum continues, we may see a continuous positive run.
Tradew ith care
MSTR stock has seen a strong rally since JuneSince June, MSTR stock has seen a strong rally—rising from the mid‑$300s to above $430—driven by a few key factors:
Bitcoin’s continued ascent has fueled sentiment. Bitcoin recently hit fresh record highs (above $118K), driven by a weakening dollar and bullish macro trends, which in turn boosted bitcoin-linked equities like MicroStrategy.
In short, MSTR’s rally since June has been largely Bitcoin-driven: a powerful combination of rising crypto prices, ongoing BTC purchases, proactive capital raises, and positive analyst sentiment creating a bullish feedback loop.
Let me know if you'd like a breakdown of Bitcoin’s trend or deeper insight on MSTR’s financing strategy.
$447 will be my next buy TP.
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MTN Nigeria Stock: A Strong Rally smashing the roofMTN Nigeria Stock: A Strong Rally smashing the roof
MTN Nigeria stock has demonstrated remarkable growth since trading around the 170 naira zone in December 2024.
As of December 9th, the stock was priced at 170 naira but has steadily rallied over the months to surpass several resistance levels (N320, N357 & N386).
Based on this momentum, the nearest most significant support zone is N386. This is a zone with confluence between an ascending resistance trendline and a support level.
The question is.
1. Can the buy continue with this vertical push-up up
2. Will the N386 confluence zone continue to hold this stock from falling?
Trade with care.
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MTN Nigeria Stock Analysis and OutlookMTN Nigeria Stock Analysis and Outlook
MTN Nigeria has shown a strong recovery, breaking out of its prolonged downtrend in early December 2024. Since then, the stock has delivered an impressive rally, gaining nearly 70% in value.
As of the latest trading session, MTN Nigeria closed at ₦279. From a technical analysis standpoint, there is a possibility of a short-term pullback toward a key support zone (indicated in yellow on the chart). Should this level hold, the stock may continue its upward momentum with a potential push toward the ₦300 psychological resistance level.
While the medium-term trend remains bullish, it is important to approach this with caution—particularly for short-term traders. Implementing a well-placed stop loss remains crucial to manage downside risks effectively in volatile market conditions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
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TRANSCORP heading to N43 zone.TRANSCORP heading to N43 zone.
This is 3rd week of straight loss for this asset.
I am looking at a buy opportunity around N43 which happens to be a confluence of an ascending trendline and a horizontal support level.
If this is favoured by fundamentals, we should be targeting a RR of 1:4.5
Long term investors have no worry with SL






















