The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails".
So, I created this video.
This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution.
Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish.
Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348).
Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future.
The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks).
Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward.
Follow my research.
Nq!
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week.
I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options).
Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen.
Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher.
The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing.
Follow my research.
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders.
I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level.
If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds.
This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout.
Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used.
Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels.
Follow my research.
Nasdaq buyPeace be upon you, how are you, O merchants? There is a high possibility of a Nazdak market rally with the retesting of the canal. In the same place, there is the moving average 200 with a very positive candle. What do you think my friends
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet?
If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond...
2/6/2023
2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway
2/8/2023 Harami-Inside
2/9/2023 CRUSH
2/10/2023 GAP Potential
2/11/2023 GAP Potential
2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal
2/13/2023 Rotation
2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21
2/15/2023 Consol-210
2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway
2/17/2023 Break-Away
2/18/2023 Carryover
2/19/2023 CRUSH
2/20/2023 Flat-Down
2/21/2023 POP
2/22/2023
2/23/2023 BaseRally301
2/24/2023 Harami-Inside
2/25/2023 CRUSH
2/26/2023 Bottom-004
Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity.
See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23.
See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom
Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23.
Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
NDX is trading in Supply zone for 2nd week nowThe main resistance is at 12805 to 12900
There is an extension to 13500, in case it wants to extend.
Biden is travelling to Poland on the 20th, and it's a long weekend.
There are some rumours about Poland attacking Belarus before the 25th.
Something big is coming from now till July of this year.
This high in Feb/Mar might be "the high" for the year...
Have a great week
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward.
I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today.
If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours.
Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion.
I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday.
Follow my research
NQ looking for a temp low on TuesdayWorking on my main SPX/ES update, so this will be quick.
Tomorrow am should produce a buyable low IMO followed by a good bounce.
From where I expect a first temp low by Tuesday, another bounce and down into the next week.
There is also a possibility of another move to above 13000 to even 13500+ in Mar time, but that was mentioned in my tonight's NQ/NDX update.
Have a good night
nasdaq 4 hour : if you have old sell you must you must hedge your old sell in 12300 area ,,,nasdaq after touch fibo61% can flyup to 13300 (see green fibo 161% on chart) 13300 is my upper target
scenario 2 = if big bad news come and nasdaq break big trendline and EMA200 daily (orange line) , it can go downer to 11600 , we must buy nasdaq above green arrow and hold them 10 day to new high =13300
prediction by me = in next 3 year we have bull market so i advice 90% looking for buy in deep and hold it to high
good luck