NVIDIA (NVDA): Where Are We in the Cycle?Ticker: NVDA
Category: Market Structure / Elliott Wave Analysis
Author’s note: Educational analysis — not financial advice.
🧠 Market Context
NVIDIA has been one of the strongest growth stories in the last market cycle. However, after such a powerful move, many traders are now asking: Where are we in the broader structure — and what could come next?
From a structural perspective, NVDA appears to have completed its third Elliott Wave, with the fourth wave currently in progress. This phase often reflects a period of consolidation, where the market digests previous gains before potentially starting the fifth wave.
📊 Elliott Wave Structure
Through the lens of Elliott Wave theory:
Wave 3 — likely completed after the parabolic advance that marked NVIDIA’s latest all-time highs.
Wave 4 — a corrective phase, potentially forming a sideways or slightly downward structure.
Wave 5 (ahead?) — may still occur, possibly extending above the upper boundary of the current price channel.
However, once the fifth wave completes, markets typically enter a longer consolidation or corrective phase — often retracing 50–60% of the total move from the highs.
⚙️ Volatility and Price Range
Currently, NVDA is trading within a broad channel, roughly between $100 and $400+.
Volatility remains elevated — which suggests that the sideways phase could persist for several months, or even longer.
Such behavior is common in late-cycle stages when large market participants distribute part of their holdings while retail interest remains high.
📈 Key Takeaways
The main impulsive move seems to have already played out.
The market may enter a range-bound or sideways phase, with local rallies still possible.
Correction risks are gradually increasing, especially if the fifth wave develops and fails to sustain new highs.
In short, this might not be the best time to chase — but rather to observe how price behaves within the current channel.
💬 Final Thoughts
This analysis is purely educational and reflects one possible scenario based on market structure.
No one can predict the exact timing or depth of the next move — the market always decides.
👉 What do you think?
Are we already in the correction phase, or is there still one more leg up left for NVDA?
Share your view in the comments below 👇
