The Cryptocurrency Market as of this day in time.First of all, TA.
Between channel - between the 5th of October and 18th November we broke our bearish channel, seeing heavy price rejection on the 15th of October and a consolidation thereafter before bearish movement back inside the channel showing price rejection.
72 MA - derived from there being 72 candles on the 1monthly graph or 6 years which is only made available to us here on trading view however On 17 March 2010, the now-defunct BitcoinMarket exchange is the first one that started operating, on the 22nd May 2010,
therefore i have added a 104 MA to the equation.
I could change the exchange but there is not an exchange available to us which has been around for the entire life of bitcoin and therefore (although the original values may be seen as anomaly's) it would still be interesting to do this. -raw data could be combined from old exchanges to new to provide transparency- if available.
Strong rejection to the upside on 15th Oct 2018 Weekly Candlestick.
No confirmation from AC for bearish momentum although on the 2D graph there are signs of a slowdown but is not confirmed as there are no lines closing below 0 as of this moment in time but in the long-term this shows no real signal until it is developed on a bigger timeframe. Not a lot
RSI is also not giving us a clean picture, however, potential retracement to between 40-50 would make sense as these levels have been shown before over a large period of time but this it will depend on the development of data over the next few weeks.
I put these on to further show indecision within the market.
While we are in a Bear market, it is unwise to catch a falling knife - this is a very common saying in Wall Street. (Unless you are a strong bull and have evidence as to why)
However, there has been no confirmation of a further decline. Could this be the bottom? or can we go further? In my opinion, there is room to go further down and it would be wise to wait for a confirmation of a bull market.
As we are in this area of uncertainty, i would say there are two outcomes: We continue to test the lower boundary of the bearish channel or we break out of this channel, retest, bounce up and test overhead levels anywhere between 5800-7600, then i'd go on to enlarge that range to 8200 according to price-analysis but it might be worth taking into account this was during an extremely choppy period for bitcoin. When we are in a successful uptrend from then on I'd say we will be in a Bull Market and it will make sense to invest.
Maybe we're just retesting a support level from a previous time? never rule out any probabilities.
I think it is very likely we may spend the next 6 months to the majority of the end of the year within the accumulation period before establishing a significant uptrend to turn around the bull market, if that's all you're here for.
Institutions have used Gold as a hedge, the regular safe haven as a medium of value in times of uncertainty, as can be shown in the past during the 2008 financial crisis, with Gold having an ATH of almost 2000usd per troy ounce.
A bit of information you should know if you care about your funds,loved ones,etc:
The purpose of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies as a whole is to provide a Decentralized medium of exchange. (A medium of exchange is a store of value used by buyers and sellers)
Bubble assumption - Many traders have considered BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a bubble where the price was pumped by buyers whom may be gullible to FOMO as they have not had a proper look at the cryptocurrencies in depth which is understandable due to the amount of time available to them to do so - or lack of interest and wanting a *get rich quick* scheme - arguably, the news is to blame for this but it has lead to increased interest on the Cryptospace. Another point to consider would be that in our global economy do we, the people, need a decentralized medium of exchange? or are we happy with settling with central fiat? if the billion-dollar cryptocurrency market doesn't tell you its here to stay, what is it telling you?
Facing the facts:
Now that more regulation is in place such as KYC and AML schemes from Governments being forced onto exchanges, surely this means that certain cryptocurrency's have a future.
However, even though such schemes have been put in place on various cryptocurrency exchanges there is the odd pump and dump exchange which will occur now and then (pumping and dumping is illegal on stocks) however in cryptocurrency it is not as of this current moment in time.
Whether it is declared illegal or not to pump and dump it will not change the fact that there will always be people and bots whom use everything in their arsenal to spoof the system which is out of control of central governments.
Fiat Currency outdated - Government bodies seek to provide a central medium of exchange to provide reliability for transactions between buyers and sellers, however, security is an issue with these mediums of exchanges. By purchasing a physical cryptocurrency wallet (from the original supplier, whoever you choose - as a popular defrauding tactic is to install apps on wallets and resell on amazon to steal) should provide sufficient security in cold storage of these devices, be innovative and think of where to store these, furthermore store your seed key in a safe place as you can then recover your cryptocurrency, accessible only to you.
Why is it good for me? you may ask.
Surely consumers businesses and bank models want sustainability, reliability and ease of access to their funds as well as cheap cross-border transactions such as those offered by XRP.
There is so much
Sustainability-
Governments want to provide sustainable economies within their country. Cryptocurrency allows safe and secure transactions as long as you give a small amount of care to protecting your funds, much better than fiat.
Businesses want a sustainable infrastructure that is going to be here for the longevity of things, as well as security. This would be provided by the mass adoption of cryptocurrency.
Consumers want to make sure their transactions are secure and can not be robbed by the local *roadman* down the street (we live in an age where large proportions of the younger generations are being brought up to assume wearing branded clothing is associated with jealousy, causing this.) Back to the topic, using cards accomplishes this you may argue.. until it is stolen and the credentials are used against you, such as acquiring relevant person information and spoofing your identity - "identity fraud".
This *need* is provided for by cryptocurrencies such as Ripple (XRP) or main competitor STELLAR (XLM)
Ripple's xrapid technology is in the process of being tested in multiple banks across the globe.
The same can be said about Stellar.
Reliability-
Governments - They won't need to waste paper or plastic/whatever material on physical *mediums of exchanges* (Money, Fiat.) is made out of, for example, once upon a time currencies were made out of more valuable materials, based on the assumption these materials are infinite maybe? who knows... An example of this would be 97% of 1p and 2p coins in the United Kingdom being made out of copper-plated steel since 1992.
on physical *mediums of exchanges* (Money, Fiat.) and therefore the Government can rely on a decentralized medium of exchange to protect you.
Businesses - We want money, lots of it (assuming businesses are greedy) and we want to be able to store it safely and securely. Crypto's means no need for stockpiling money.. oh wait cards do that already? Card users databases are leaked often and fraudsters purchase them from x uncensored/impossible to take down site, however it could be argued darknet sites last a year or so before dying, probably because of an advancement in technology. Let us talk about Quantum Computers and how these may be used to decrypt the latest encryption methods... (Off topic, i know.) - IBM has been researching/developing these since 1990. Point being, if someone is committed enough they will use everything in their arsenal to fight back at you so conform to norms.
Consumers - How reliable is my credit card?- pretty reliable until something goes wrong with the banks and the card gets declined.. or you get defrauded by a fraudster whom has evaded all of the latest anti fraud techniques. (Let us talk about browser fingerprinting) With cryptocurrencies, this is diminished by the use of blockchain technology - a good thing to read up on, therefore you'll know what you're buying into, a medium of exchange which is almost guaranteed to rise up in value in the longevity as long as Governments, Conglomerates and Businesses as it will all lead to adoption in the market.
Why does x cryptocurrency offer value to me, the consumer,business,government of x country? Great question, glad to help you. It provides up to date protection and security so you have control over your own funds, there are many "stable" coins out there, naming the most popular one would be Tether (USDT) so why not avoid the bank and store your currencies on a decentralized wallet or *trusted* exchange of your choice which you believe is not prone to hackers. Personally, i would recommend Binance for a few reasons.
1) They are the biggest exchange, assumingly the most reliable - however - this could lead to it being a target for hackers who want to steal your funds out of your wallets. By being the biggest cryptocurrency exchange by 24hr volume every day you can give them credit where its due as they have the infrastructure to secure your funds by working ontop of their api.
2) They literally reimburse your funds if you lose them due to events out of your jurisdiction, ie, hackers stealing your funds. (You won't get them refunded if you do not have a password on your phone and your mate steals them because how can you prove this?)
This is just a recommendation, you can obviously use other exchanges such as huobi,bitfinex, etc but do your research first.
We could also talk about mining costs for x cryptocurrency, for example bitcoins being below
Mining is basically a DOS-prevention mechanism known as "proof of work." There's a math problem that is very hard to solve, but very easy to check the solution for (there are many types).
So, when you add a new entry to the transaction log ("blockchain") -- basically a list of "transactions that have happened in the last X minutes" -- you need to include a solution to the puzzle.
To encourage participation, the system includes a provision that, as a reward for solving the puzzle and recording the log, you also get to conjure a bit of the currency out of thin air and give it to yourself. In other words, "mine" it.
To summarize: Solve problem, post solution, profit.
Now, why does such a system exist? It helps prevent people from taking over the transaction log by just doing whatever they want. You have to put in an insane amount of work just to make one entry... which means that you can't really spam it. You would need to spend much more compute power than every other person/group working on the problem, which is infeasible in all but the most disused currencies.
To conclude, while there will always be people whom breach the system and take advantage, you have to hope that the future is a brighter place where governments may listen and understand the value of cryptocurrencies and stop trying to render them as obsolete due to either not caring about the subject or personal interests from the highest in power. Cryptocurrencies have a Genuine use and although their reputation may be brought down by users of the darkweb -naughty people who want to steal your funds- you can protect your funds so do not fall for FUD and hodl throughout FUD. Also, do not fall for misinformation, do your own research and uncover the truth.. most industry's are not effected as heavily by FUD but this is one of the major restrictions in crypto adoption which bulls must take with a pinch of salt, as previously seen before the hodl pays off, we may be in a 90% retracement but what happens after that? further accumulation before a boom? Only time will tell.
Long-term BULL, Short-term unclear.
While i don't believe in BTC as the currency which will take off, the majority of crypto's a currently tied to BTC however when a decoupling of crypto's happen (which will be shown by the majority of altcoins outperforming bitcoin) i'd say these opportunities we have now are even more buying opportunities. Ethereum has massive adoption already and its offering us ever more affordable buying opportunities if you think long term. There are plenty of opportunities for us traders to capitalize on within this space for the future and many of these cryptocurrencies have real life high ecological validity.
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I want to provide an unbiased opinion on my trading ideas, this idea assumes crypto's will be adopted however it takes a scope of detail into account, looking at cold hard facts which inevitably will lead to adoption as it is just a matter of time, and if you disagree then that is your opinion and you are well and truly entitled to it, thank you for reading :)
