$200 soon - SOL weekly update August 12 - 18thFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, the scenario for Solana has been slightly adjusted from previous counts. Current price action suggests that SOL is already in an impulsive upward move, which aligns well with the broader correlation observed across the altcoin market. As with many other altcoins, the structure shows a completed 1–2 sequence at the Primary degree and another 1–2 sequence at the Intermediate degree. At the Minor degree, price is in the final stages of Wave 1, specifically in Minute Wave 5.
An alternative scenario — less likely but still possible — is that the move is actually a corrective structure, with the Minor degree currently forming Wave C. This would become more probable if price extends significantly beyond the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, as such behaviour would be atypical for a standard fifth wave.
From a liquidity standpoint, short- to medium-term bias points upward. The liquidity heatmap shows a large concentration of liquidity at the local high of Wave 3, as well as significant order clusters near the 1.0 extension target for the current Wave 5. However, substantial liquidity is also accumulating below current price, which will likely be targeted during the subsequent Wave 2 retracement.
Funding rates have shifted from slightly negative toward positive territory, and open interest is climbing — both signs of a stable and sustained upward move.
Macro conditions also support the current market tone. The latest CPI data came in at 2.7%, better than expected, boosting sentiment. As the FOMC meeting approaches, retail traders are increasingly positioning for a potential “altseason” — a dynamic that raises the probability of a sell-the-news event if expectations are overextended.
Given the current wave structure, liquidity positioning, and macro backdrop, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level has been set as the primary target for the completion of this Minor Wave 5. This area aligns with heavy order clustering and fits the typical profile for a fifth wave termination before a corrective phase.
Do your own research — and trade safe.
