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DXY Trade Outlook – Sept 10, 2025DXY currently sits at a critical zone with mixed timeframe confluence: Weekly: Bearish bias still intact. Daily: Bullish structure after tapping into POI. 4H: Bearish at extreme POI. Key Note: Not expecting a strong close below 97.80, although intraday spikes may occur. Watching for confirmation before directional commitment. Outlook: Neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term, but bigger picture remains capped by higher-timeframe bearish structure.
TVC:DXYLong
by sam_trades_smc
XAUUSD sell expectation Gold (XAUUSD) has shown signs of exhaustion after its recent bullish run, with price reacting strongly to multiple fair value gaps (FVG) and resistance zones. The 15-minute chart highlights unmitigated bearish FVGs aligning with higher timeframe supply areas, signaling a potential shift in order flow. My bearish expectation is that gold will likely respect these supply zones and continue to trade lower toward key support around 3616 – 3580, where liquidity rests. The sell entry is based on the rejection from the 15m FVG, confirming bearish order flow and favoring downside continuation. Risk management is essential here: stop-loss above the recent supply/FVG zone, while targeting the liquidity pools and imbalance fills below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bolems
Bitcoin: Pullback Expected Into Prior Consolidation Zone After a strong markup phase, Bitcoin has now formed a buying climax near the $113K level. Price action shows signs of distribution, with stacked imbalances above acting as a liquidity magnet. I expect price to first sweep this overhead liquidity, trapping breakout buyers and creating the conditions for a reversal. Once the sweep is complete, confirmation will come if price fails back below the buying climax zone. This would indicate true seller pressure and a shift in market structure. At that point, I will be watching for a retest of the prior POC (Point of Control) to establish short positions. Trade Plan: Entry trigger: Sweep of buying climax → bearish rejection → retest of supply / POC. Stop loss: Above the sweep high (invalidates distribution scenario). Targets: Previous consolidation levels and liquidity pools below ($111K–$110K zones). This setup aligns Wyckoff distribution structure with orderflow and liquidity logic. As long as the sweep fails and sellers regain control, I expect a pullback into the prior consolidation zone. ⚠️ Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above the buying climax would cancel the short bias.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by raivo_luhse
2
ES (S&P500) - Analyses - Breakout or Breakdown Plan (Sep 9)S&P 500 E-mini (ES) keeps ranging inside 6,490–6,505, with repeated taps of 6,516 above and 6,490–6,496 below. Tomorrow I’m stalking a box resolution during the AM session, then a second chance in the PM window. Key Zones Resistance: 6,505–6,516 (NYPM/NYAM lid). Above it: 6,541.25 (PDH) → 6,547.75 (IBH). Support: 6,495–6,490 (NYAM/NYPM floor). Below it: 6,481.0 → 6,471.5 (hard pools). Range to watch: 6,490–6,505 (decision box). Game Plan (structure-first) LONG (breakout-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close > 6,505–6,516. 2. Retest 6,501–6,503 (OB/FVG/OTE) and hold. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,541.25, TP2 6,547.75, TP3 6,555+. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body back ≤ 6,500 after breakout. SHORT (breakdown-acceptance) 1. 5-minute displacement close < ~6,496. 2. Retest 6,498–6,500 (failed reclaim) and roll. 3. Entry on confirm; Targets: TP1 6,481.0, TP2 6,471.5, TP3 6,464–6,465. 4. Invalidation: any 5-minute body ≥ 6,500 after fill. Timing windows Primary: 09:30–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET (trade management only in between). We are currently consolidating below 6,516, with a clear liquidity ladder leading to PDH 6,541.25 if the movement is accepted. If it fails, we have stacked support levels around 6,481 and 6,471 that typically attract price action once 6,496 breaks down. Please confirm with ES and NQ: we want both indices to move in sync (no bearish signs of market tension on longs, and no bullish signs of market tension on shorts). What could affect ES tomorrow? NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug): 6:00 AM ET. API crude inventories (for CL correlation): Tuesday around 4:30 PM ET. (For Wednesday's context: EIA petroleum report at 10:30 AM ET.)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Bitcoin in the decisionBitcoin opened bearish today, and this outlook remains as long as we trade below 110,900. At 110,300 we still have a naked POC from September 2nd, which should act as support. Since this level often acts like a magnet, I expect we might revisit it. It is important that this level holds – otherwise, a quick move down toward 108,600 could follow, which I see as the next real support. If we somehow manage to reclaim 112,000, the picture flips back to bullish. In that case, a test of the naked POC at 113,000 would be the target, where I expect strong rejection.
by Rayo_mxp
$BTC Macro OutlookWeekly Chart BTC is still trading inside the macro range at $111,959.5–$119,655.0. Last week closed green but as an inside bar, which signals indecision. We also printed a failed auction above the prior higher-high vLevel—hinting at trend fatigue and the risk of a deeper pullback. As long as price holds $111,959.5, the broader bullish structure is intact. A weekly close below $111,959.5 would likely open room toward the next vLevel near $98,115.4. Until this range resolves, expect two-sided trade and respect the extremes. Daily Chart Today’s candle closed as a shooting star (bearish pin bar) with elevated Relative Volume (RVOL), a classic reversal signal at resistance. On the Footprint, delta finished negative and, more importantly, VAH, VAL, and the POC all sit inside the upper wick, which tells us most of the trading occurred near the highs. That’s typical of late longs getting trapped. With the daily trend pointing lower, the base case is a rotation toward the $111,910 vLevel. Until conditions change, treat bounces as opportunities to stay aligned with the bearish daily momentum. 12-Hour Chart Structure is still bullish, but this push looks more like a liquidity sweep above the prior range highs, right where most short stops sit; than true initiative buying. If we fail to gain acceptance above the breakout and rotate back inside the range with sell-delta/absorption at the highs, I’ll treat it as a failed auction and look for rotation back toward the range low. 4-Hour Chart After a clean macro Over/Under, the 4-hour has rotated back into the SWING OTE zone, exactly where I want to be stalking shorts. Despite the 4H still reading structurally bullish, price is boxed inside $118 395.8–$122 165.4 and keeps showing responsive selling into the upper range. For a swing short, the key now is the 30-minute: Invalidation is acceptance above $122 165.4; below that, the short idea stays in play. We’ll break down the 30-min setup next. 30-Minute Chart The 30-minute is flashing a clean spike in both CVD and Open Interest, fresh longs chased the intraday pump. Best case from here is a full fade of that impulse, turning late buyers into exit fuel. Leverage looks elevated, so a liquidity flush is very much on the table if price can’t hold acceptance above the spike. I’m placing limit shorts inside the intraday OTE zone with my stop just above 122 165.4.
Short
by BastDeCode
4
How to use Order Flow / Delta Volume Indicator for IntradayWhat you’re seeing This idea visualizes an intraday session with my Order Flow / Delta Volume study applied. The chart overlays three things that matter for short-term context: • Cumulative delta (blue line) : running sum of delta, rescaled so it’s easy to compare to price swings. • VWAP (grey line) : session anchor for bias and mean-reversion context. Signal logic (kept simple & rule-based) A bar is considered imbalanced when one side’s volume dominates the bar’s total volume. • Imbalance: upVol / totalVol > 0.60 → buy-side imbalance; downVol / totalVol > 0.60 → sell-side imbalance. • Trend/strength filters (optional but enabled here): • VWAP filter → longs only when price > VWAP; shorts only when price < VWAP. • RSI(14) filter → longs only if RSI > 50; shorts only if RSI < 50. • Noise throttle: minimum 5 bars between signals + price must exceed the prior close by ±ATR(14) to avoid tiny wiggles. These rules try to capture moments when flow (delta) and context (VWAP/RSI) line up, while the ATR and cooldown help skip low-quality, back-to-back prints. How to read the chart • Rising blue cumulative-delta with price above VWAP → constructive backdrop for longs; fading/ranging delta warns to de-risk or wait. • Green “ BUY ” labels plot when a buy-side imbalance clears the filters; red “ SELL ” labels mark sell-side imbalances with bearish context. • Background tints briefly highlight where the raw imbalance occurred (light green/red), even when a trade filter blocks a signal. Walk-through of the attached example • Trend leg after a base: cumulative delta turns up first and price reclaims VWAP → several filtered BUY signals print into the push; ATR gate avoids chasing the very first small upticks. • Mid-session chop: delta flips around the zero line and price hovers near VWAP → far fewer signals; most imbalances are filtered out by RSI/VWAP or fail the ATR move requirement. • Late expansion: a swift VWAP reclaim with strong positive delta → clustered BUY signals that track the follow-through, while opposing sell imbalances near VWAP are rejected by filters. Inputs used on this chart • Imbalance threshold: 0.60 • VWAP filter: On • RSI filter: On, threshold 50 • Cooldown: 5 bars • ATR length: 14 Notes • This is not a trade recommendation. Signals highlight where participation leans, not certainty of direction. • Best paired with your execution plan (risk unit, stop location, partials near prior S/R or VWAP). • In fast spikes, delta can be extreme—ATR and the cooldown help, but slippage and whipsaws are always possible. • For instruments with very low volume or during illiquid hours, consider raising the imbalance threshold or disabling signals altogether. Takeaway Order-flow imbalance by itself fires often; layering VWAP, RSI, and an ATR-based movement check concentrates signals to moments when both flow and context align. The attached session shows that behavior clearly: fewer prints in chop, more conviction when cumulative delta trends and price holds its side of VWAP. Educational post for discussion only. No financial advice.
by TradeTechanalysis
$BTC Daily OutlookDaily Chart Today’s close printed a small bearish doji; visually bearish but still another inside-day that keeps BTC boxed between the High-Volume Node / v-Level cluster at $116 860-$123 300. Holding $116 860 remains critical; lose it on a daily close and price can easily slide to the weekly breakout shelf near $111 960. We are now 16 days inside this balance. Per Auction-Market-Theory rule #5, the longer price churns at the edge, the more resting liquidity is absorbed, eventually a decisive push will follow. If buyers defend $116 860 again, the path opens toward range high $123 300 and the prior ATH; if they fail, expect a fast flush to the weekly V-Level. Footprint Read Value Area High and Low span the full candle, with the POC parked mid-range, classic two-sided trade. Delta finished negative and the heaviest prints sit at session lows: sellers hit the bid hard, yet could not follow through. That absorption leaves shorts vulnerable to a squeeze if new selling momentum doesn’t appear quickly. Fundamental Pulse – Week Ahead ETF Flows: Spot-Bitcoin ETFs booked three consecutive inflow days to close last week (+$180 M net). Sustained demand under the range supports the bullish case. Macro Data: U.S. FOMC & Federal Fund Rates prints for this week; expect more volatility starting from tomorrow. Game Plan Primary bias stays long while daily candles close above $116 860; upside trigger is a clean for now or shorts squeeze toward $123 300. If $116 860 breaks with volume, prepare for a quick liquidity hunt into the weekly shelf at $111 960, where we reassess for swing longs. Intraday: I’ll monitor the Intraday Chart on tomorrow's High impact events and look for best opportunities across the board. Alt window: a fresh downtick in BTC Dominance could spark rotation; watch high-Open Interest majors if BTC ranges.
by BastDeCode
1
$BTC Daily OutlookBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P Weekly Chart: Bitcoin has now printed three consecutive weekly closes above the former higher-high threshold at $111 960. That series is enough to confirm a clean breakout of the prior HH-HL range and keeps the long-term bias pointed firmly higher. That said, a near-term pullback is still on the table: • First support — the breakout shelf at $111 960 (re-test of structure). • Deeper support — the next V-level around $98 115. Why the caution? Last week’s candle left a small Failed Auction just above the new high, and Footprint data shows a cluster of aggressive buy-delta trapped in that wick. Those buyers may need to get washed out before the trend resumes. Big picture: weekly structure is bullish; any dip into the levels above is a potential reload zone while the breakout holds. Daily Chart: Price action remains firmly bullish: multiple Failed-Auction rejections at the $116 860 higher-low vLevel keeps supply thin and reinforce the up-trend toward the prior ATH. That said, remember Auction Market Theory rule #5: “When time or volume builds at the edge of balance, price often pushes through.” • Each failed auction is absorbing resting bids. • If sellers lean in again with size, the level can flip from support to resistance very quickly. In practice that means: •Base case – continuation to the highs while the Daily structure holds. •Risk scenario – a clean break of $116 860 would open room for a deeper weekly pullback toward $107456.0 For now we treat the current weekly pullback as a fresh opportunity: scouting intraday longs as price reacts to the 1-Hourly zone. From the footprint read-out, today’s bar finished with a neutral delta, but note where the profile is stacked: both the Value Area Low and the POC sit right at the bottom of the candle. That tells us the bulk of volume printed down at the session lows and it skewed negative, sellers were leaning hard, trying to extend the move lower.
by BastDeCode
2
$BTC Macro UpdateBitcoin Macro Outlook BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P Weekly Bias & momentum remain bullish. Price is pressing toward new ATHs despite last week’s pullback. Next macro target: ~$133,550 (extension of the current DeCode V-Range: 111,959.5 – 77,111.0). A weekly close back inside that range (<111,968.0) = Failed Auction → serious red flag for reversal. Daily Clean rejection off the 21-Day Rolling VWAP + bounce at the structural HL V-Level (116,862.4). A strong bullish engulfing today would set the tone for follow-through this week. 10-Hour Structure is still bullish. Multiple Failed Auctions from ~116,960.0 are driving price toward the ATH. Intraday Choppy and hugging range lows → harder read. That behavior near balance edges triggers AMT Rule #5: “If time/volume builds at the edge of balance, price is likely to push through.” Auction Market Theory – Quick Reminders Price : advertises opportunity Time : regulates opportunity Volume : tells you if the auction is succeeding or failing Rule #5 (above) is in play right now. Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and don’t FOMO.
Long
by BastDeCode
GBPUSD - Also continued downside continuationLooking at GU. This is a little bit ahead of its time in comparison to EU. And what i mean by that is EU is a lot further away from its 4H demand zone compared to GBP so it will be super interesting to see how we react at the level we are fast approaching on GU. I am in a short position as of Friday. I will be posting a video tomorrow showing exactly how and why i got short on GU so stay tuned for that one. As always if there is anything else i can be of assistance with give me a message and i will be happy to answer any questions you may have
by BenFxLDN
EURUSD - Still Orderflow remains bearishLooking at EU. The 1H Orderflow is still maintaining that bearish intent. My area is set now for where i want to take a potential sell to the downside seeing as everything else is pretty much mitigated. The only issue with this potential sell of is that we never really had a sweep of liquidity before we rolled over and moved to the downside. We do have a level of inducement before our POI but i think in an ideal world i would love to see us build up a bit more liquidity before the POI just to induce the early sellers before making that move to the downside. For now. On the lower TF's i will be looking to take short term long positions back up to our POI before looking for the longer terms short. to our 4H POI in which i will be looking to get long once again. Any questions feel free to give me a message
by BenFxLDN
CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf📉 CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf 🔹 Context: Price just tapped into a heavy upper volume shelf (68.35–68.50) — the exact area where the prior breakdown started. This zone aligns with rejection highs and the upper edge of the VRVP profile. 📌 Setup Logic: 🔺 Entry: 68.36–68.50 (into supply zone) ⛔ Stop: 68.75 (above liquidity peak) 🎯 Target: 66.78 (prior demand + volume node) 📐 RRR: ~4.0:1 ⚠️ Trigger: Do not enter early — wait for rollover of price which it looks like we are getting now. 📊 Why It Matters: 📈 VRVP shows clear upper and lower volume shelves 📛 Price has overextended into a prior rejection zone 🔁 Potential for a mean-reversion leg once we confirm momentum breakdown 📷 See attached chart for full zone layout 🧠 Let me know if you’re entering or watching this one 👇 #CrudeOil #CL1 #FuturesTrading #VolumeProfile #SciQua #OrderFlow
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by JoshuaDanford