Bear market has startedThe End of the Bull Cycle. Why I'm Selling Everything and Won't Buy Again Until September 2026.
For the last year and a half, I have said that we are in a bull market. I never once changed my opinion. But all things come to an end. The time has come.
September 13, 2025, the date I have been mentioning across my social media, was, in my opinion, the peak of this market cycle. As painful as it may sound, the bull market is over.
"Altseason" is a Scam. It's Time to Grow Up
Let's be honest. The "altseason" that everyone was dreaming of never happened. Yes, there were pumps on selective, mostly new coins. But the old guard, for the most part, showed nothing.
Therefore, I want to officially declare: I will never use the word "altseason" again. It's a meme from 2017. There are now over a million coins on the market. Liquidity is so diluted that pumping everything is impossible. Instead of "altseason," we have, and always will have, "selective pumps" driven by interested players. Our job is to learn how to find them, not to wait for a mythical wave that will lift all boats.
Why Now? The Classic Signs of a Top
I wouldn't be so certain if I didn't see the classic signs of euphoria that always appear at the top of a cycle:
- Universal Optimism: Governments are embracing crypto, creating reserve funds.
-Corporate Buying: Public companies are massively buying Bitcoin and Ethereum.
-Positive News: The media is filled with only positive news; no one wants to sell and is waiting for $200k, $300k, $500k.
When the crowd rushes into the market, smart money begins to exit. I prefer to be with the latter.
My Personal 2-Year Plan. Maximum Transparency
I'm not just saying the market will fall. I am publicly sharing my plan of action:
1. I am exiting the market into stablecoins NOW. I am locking in my profits.
2. I will NOT be buying the first correction. When Bitcoin drops to $90,000, most people will be buying, thinking it's a discount. I will not.
3. I plan to start actively buying again in September 2026.
Why so long? Because those who buy at the $90-100k mark risk sitting through two years of psychological and financial drawdown just to break even. I am not willing to pay that price. I won't disconnect from the market; I'll keep my finger on the pulse, but I don't plan on making any active buys.
Cycles Work. My Technical Rationale
My decision is not based on emotion but on cycle theory, which I have tested for years. The cycle consists of ~151 weeks of growth and ~51 weeks of decline. We have just completed the growth phase. The period between September 13 and October 6 is the exact reversal zone after which a decline should begin.
I could be wrong. No one can be right all the time. Perhaps the cycle theory will break this time. But I trust my system.
Conclusion: What's Next? The Long-Term View
I have not become a bear forever. I believe Bitcoin will hit $300,000. But not in the coming months. It will be worth that in 2.5 years, after a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak.
From this moment on, my bias is bearish. On strong upward bounces, I might even open short positions. A new game is beginning, with new rules. My job is to preserve my capital and multiply it in the next cycle. What about yours?
Why bear market started now Proofs:
Best regards EXCAVO
