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A Bearish SentimentHey guys, Bitcoin on the 4H is setting up what looks like a textbook distribution pattern, and I'm leaning bearish here despite the recent bounce off $87,688. Price is currently trading at $91,332, sitting in a really uncomfortable middle zone. We're above the short-term moving averages (EMA20 at $90,193 and EMA50 at $90,276), which on the surface looks bullish. But here's the problem: we're still firmly rejected below the EMA200 at $93,179, and that level's been acting as a ceiling for multiple sessions now. Every time we push toward $92,900-$93,200, sellers step in hard. That's your primary supply zone, and it's reinforced by the Bollinger Band upper limit at $92,918. The indicator stack is where things get really interesting. ADX is screaming at 77.1, that's extreme trend strength, folks. But which trend? The MACD is still bearish at -286.85 versus signal at -284.68, telling us the momentum remains to the downside despite this bounce. More importantly, check out the Stochastic at 96.4, that's massively overbought on the 4H timeframe. When you see Stochastic that extended, you're usually near a local top, not the beginning of a rally. Here's where it gets spicy: the MFI is sitting at just 22.9. Let that sink in. Price is pushing higher, Stochastic is overbought, but money flow is absolutely anemic. That's classic divergence, price going up on declining participation. Smart money's distributing into strength while retail's buying the breakout. I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for late buyers. Volume analysis supports the bearish thesis. We're running 30% above average at $26,852, which confirms active participation. But notice the wick structure: 18.4% lower wick shows buyers stepped in aggressively, yet we've got a 5.6% upper wick showing sellers immediately absorbed that pressure. In a healthy uptrend, you want to see small upper wicks and strong closes. This candle structure screams exhaustion. From a structural perspective, we've formed a higher low (bullish), but we haven't confirmed a higher high yet (neutral to bearish). That makes this a potential bear flag rather than a reversal pattern. The Bollinger Bands are telling a similar story, we're trading just above the middle band at $90,391, but we haven't been able to sustain any momentum toward the upper band. That middle band is now acting as resistance rather than support, which is a bearish flip. Support levels to watch: immediate support sits at the HMA55 around $90,540, then the EMA20 at $90,193. If those break, we're looking at a quick move back to the lower Bollinger Band at $87,864, which aligns with today's low of $87,688. That zone saw significant buying interest earlier, so it should provide a bounce, but if it fails, we could see acceleration toward the $86,200-$85,500 range where weekly support clusters. Resistance is clearly defined: $92,918 (Bollinger upper), $93,179 (EMA200), and $93,500 (psychological). Any sustained move above $93,200 would invalidate this bearish setup and suggest we're heading for price discovery toward the $95,000 zone. But with current momentum and indicator readings, I'm assigning less than 30% probability to that scenario. Trading setup: I'm looking at short entries in the $89,800-$90,500 range if we get a lower high formation on the 1H chart. Stop loss goes above $92,500 to give room for a false breakout. Targets are $87,800 (TP1), $86,200 (TP2), and $85,000 (TP3) for the aggressive traders. Risk/reward on this is roughly 1:2.5 to first target, which is acceptable given the confluence of bearish signals. The internal market state shows bullish bias but only 38.6% directional confidence, that's essentially a coin flip, and when the algos are this uncertain, I fade the recent move. The 6-2 bull-bear stack sounds bullish until you realize that's only 75% agreement, and with ADX this high, we need near-unanimous confirmation for continuation. Bottom line: this looks like a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a new leg up. The combination of overbought Stochastic, weak money flow, bearish MACD, and resistance cluster overhead tilts the probabilities toward downside resolution. I'm giving this a 68% confidence bearish call, not slam-dunk territory, but enough edge to take a position with proper risk management. What are you guys seeing here? Are you fading this bounce or waiting for confirmation above $93,200?
Short
by MonoCoinSignal
2
USDT dominance (USDT.D) USDT dominance (USDT.D) remains elevated and is in a major uptrend, indicating that a significant portion of crypto capital is still parked in stablecoins and in a risk-off position. Current Structure: USDT.D is around 5-6%, having broken above a long-term descending trendline that had capped dominance since 2022. This is typically a cautionary signal for risk assets when it remains above that breakout level. From a technical perspective, USDT.D still appears to be in a large corrective pattern, with significant downside support around 4.2% and 3.8%; losing those levels would confirm a new downtrend in dominance and is usually accompanied by a strong rally in BTC and altcoins. DYOR | NFA,
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC the Bear Market Has Started 2026 Will Be a Bearish Year! Looking at Bitcoin’s long-term market structure, we can clearly see a repeating cyclical pattern that has stayed surprisingly consistent over the past decade. 🔁Historical Pattern When analyzing previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin tends to follow a rhythm: Bull market duration: ~1050–1070 days Bear market duration: ~360–400 days This timing has repeated with remarkable accuracy across all major market cycles. 📉What’s Happening Now According to the cycle structure shown on the chart, the 2021–2025 bull market has reached its exhaustion point. The current price action suggests that a new bear market phase has already begun, aligning perfectly with the historical 360–400-day correction window. 📉Technical Patterns Confirm Bearish Momentum It’s not just the cycle timing: Multiple technical analysis patterns shown on the chart also point to deeper downside. Structure breakdowns Lower highs formation Momentum weakening Failed attempts to reclaim trend resistance These patterns collectively indicate a high probability of Bitcoin dropping below the $70,000 level in the coming months. Everything looks bearish — both from a cyclical perspective and from pure technical analysis. 📅Key Projection If the cycle continues to repeat: ➡️The next major bull market is likely to begin around October 2026.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BlessingTrade
BITCOIN FORMING AN ACCUMULATION PATTERNBitcoin looks like it’s grinding through a classic accumulation structure. Here’s the thing: the selling pressure almost exhausted itself, we got the shakeout, and price snapped back into the range. The AR and ST levels are holding the story together, and the lower tests are getting weaker each time. What this really means is the market might be shifting from fear to quiet accumulation. If this plays out, the next leg is usually a markup after the final test. I’ve drawn the possible path based on how this structure tends to resolve, not as a guarantee but as a roadmap. Watching for: • strength coming back into the range • a clean higher low • confirmation that demand is stepping in If those pieces align, the upside opens up quickly. If they fail, the range simply extends.
Long
by rishyrish
BTC Dominance Let's take a brief but informative look at Bitcoin Dominance using the indicator. We currently have a SHORT signal. Below, I'll outline the key points and the indicator's opinion. Dominance analysis is key to understanding overall market sentiment: a decline often signals rising interest in altcoins. To see the full picture and understand where the price might move next, be sure to study the photo with the chart and indicator labels. Now, on to the structure: Ликвидность — Подсвечена на графике; Локально канал — Нисходящий; Ближайшая полка поддержки — далеко за LL; Ближайшая полка сопротивления — 59.26%; Ближайшая зона поддержки (LL) — 58.65%; Ближайшая зона сопротивления (LH) — 62.25%; Сигнал памп/дамп — отсутствуют; Деньги в активе — переходят в отрицательное значение; Гистограмма и киты — на стороне лонга (слабо); Локально трендовая — на стороне лонга! PHOTO WITH INFORMATION FROM THE INDICATOR: What does this mean? The indicator paints a contradictory but important picture for the overall market. The formal signal is a short (descending channel, negative money). However, the trend and histogram are still holding on to the long, and the nearest significant support (LL at 58.65%) is far below. This creates room for further declines. The absence of pump/dump signals suggests no sharp movements—the decline could be gradual. We're keeping an eye on the 59.26% and 58.65% levels. Good luck in the markets!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Indicator_Tony
NASDAQ100 Strong Bullish Momentum — Clean Entry & Exit Blueprint⚡ THIEF STRATEGY ALERT: Golden Cross Breakout Setup 📈 TRADE PLAN OVERVIEW Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 Index) Timeframe: Day/Swing Trade Market Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (Moving Average Breakout + MACD Golden Cross Confirmed) Strategy Type: Layered Entry Approach (Multi-Level Limit Orders) 🎯 ENTRY STRATEGY - "THIEF LAYERING METHOD" Multiple Limit Order Entry Points (Build Position Gradually): 📍 Layer 1: 25,400 (First Entry) 📍 Layer 2: 25,500 (Second Entry) 📍 Layer 3: 25,600 (Third Entry) 💡 Pro Tip: Adjust layer levels based on your capital allocation & risk tolerance. This pyramiding approach reduces average entry cost and limits downside risk. Why This Method? The layered entry reduces emotional trading, averages down your entry price, and ensures you're not all-in on one level. 🛑 STOP LOSS - "THIEF OG PROTECTION" Suggested SL Level: 25,200 ⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This is a reference level only. Adjust your stop loss based on: Your personal risk tolerance Account size & position sizing Technical support levels on your timeframe 🔴 Remember: Risk management is YOUR responsibility. Set stops that protect YOUR capital. 🎁 PROFIT TARGET - "POLICE BARRICADE RESISTANCE" Primary Target: 26,100 📊 Technical Confluence: SUPERTREND ATR Line = Strong Dynamic Resistance Overbought Zone Alert = Potential Reversal Risk Resistance Trap = Take profits before reversal occurs ⚠️ CRITICAL NOTE: Partial profit-taking recommended. Don't be greedy at target levels—accumulate gains gradually: 🟢 Take 30-40% profit at 26,100 🟢 Move SL to breakeven, trail remaining position 🟢 Exit second half on additional resistance or SUPERTREND reversal 💰 YOUR DECISION: Profit targets are YOUR choice. Trade at your own risk and manage your exit strategy. 🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Risk/Opportunity Indicators) 1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - USD Strong Correlation (0.95) Key Point: Leads or confirms NAS100 moves Watch For: If SPY breaks below key support, NAS100 pullback likely Action: Use SPY strength to confirm NASDAQ100 breakout validity 2. QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) - Perfect Mirror (1.0 Correlation) Key Point: Direct tracker of your asset Watch For: Volume spikes, divergence patterns Action: Cross-reference QQQ volume with NAS100—lack of volume = weak breakout 3. DXY (US Dollar Index) - Inverse Correlation (-0.75) Key Point: Strong dollar = tech selloff risk Watch For: DXY rejection at key levels Action: If DXY rallies hard, NAS100 bullish bias weakens—be cautious 4. TLT (20-Year Treasury ETF) - Indirect Inverse (-0.60) Key Point: Rising rates pressure growth stocks (NASDAQ) Watch For: TLT breakdown = rate hike concerns = tech pressure Action: Monitor TLT support; if breaks, expect NAS100 resistance 5. GLD (Gold ETF) - Risk-On Indicator (0.40) Key Point: Flight-to-safety alternative Watch For: Sharp gold strength = risk-off environment forming Action: Gold spike with NAS100 move down = sell signal confirmation 6. VIX (Volatility Index) - Fear Gauge (-0.80) Key Point: Rising VIX kills bullish momentum Watch For: VIX above 20 = caution on long positions Action: If VIX spikes during entry, wait for stabilization before scaling in ✅ CHECKLIST BEFORE ENTRY Moving Average crossover confirmed (golden cross visible) MACD histogram turned positive Price closed above key moving average Volume supporting the move Correlated pairs (QQQ/SPY) confirming bullish setup DXY not in strong uptrend (tech-unfriendly) VIX stable or declining 🎯 TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES (THIEF OG STYLE) Scale In: Use limit orders—don't chase price Protect Profits: Move stop to breakeven after first target hit Trail Stops: Let winners run while protecting gains Take Partials: Secure profits incrementally—greed kills traders Monitor Correlations: Watch correlated pairs for early warning signals Respect Risk: NEVER risk more than 2% per trade ⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER This is an Educational Guide Only for trading strategy examples. 🔴 NOT Financial Advice: I am not a financial advisor, and this does NOT constitute investment advice. 🔴 Your Responsibility: All entry, exit, and stop-loss decisions are YOUR choice and YOUR responsibility. 🔴 Past Performance ≠ Future Results: Market conditions change; strategies may fail. 🔴 Risk Capital Only: Trade only with money you can afford to lose completely. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research (DYOR). 💪 THIEF OG'S MINDSET Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), Success in trading isn't about following someone else's exact setup—it's about understanding the WHY behind each decision, adapting to YOUR risk tolerance, and executing with DISCIPLINE. This guide provides the framework. You provide the execution. Make your profits, protect your capital, and trade smart. 🎯 Now go earn those tendies, OG's! 💰📈 Last Updated: December 2025 Strategy Type: Day/Swing Trade | Timeframe: 4H-Daily
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by The-Thief
1
The Breakout Is Closer Than You Think…NZD/USD – 1H MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS 1) Current Price Structure - Market is in a clean uptrend (higher highs & higher lows on the left side of chart). - After the impulsive bullish leg, price has shifted into a sideways range, forming a clear consolidation between Support and Resistance. - Micro-structure inside the range shows repeated equal highs & equal lows → compression before expansion. 2) Liquidity & Key Zones - Resistance Zone (Top of Range): 0.5785 – 0.5805 - Multiple rejections → liquidity resting above (buy stops & breakout traps). - Support Zone (Bottom of Range): 0.5750 – 0.5765 Consistently defended by buyers → liquidity sitting below (sell stops). Liquidity Note: Expect a sweep of support (fake break) before a bullish continuation — classic smart money behavior in a bullish market. 3) Today’s Market Scenario Main Scenario (Bullish Bias – Preferred): - Price retests the support zone - Likely performs a liquidity sweep below the zone - Sharp bullish rejection - Price rotates back to resistance - Breaks out → continuation with uptrend alignment This matches your projected red zig-zag + final bullish impulse. Alternative Scenario (Low Probability): - Clear candle close below 0.5740 with no recovery → shift to bearish intraday bias. 4) Market Psychology - The market is "resting" after a strong push → accumulation psychology. - Smart money wants liquidity → they will likely sweep below the support to fill buy orders. - Retail traders try to sell the range highs and buy the lows, but SM often collects their stops before moving to the real direction. Key idea: Range = where weak hands lose money. Breakout = where strong hands take profits 5) Intraday Strategy (Entry – SL – TP) BUY Setup (Aligned With Your Chart): Entry: 0.5755 – 0.5765 Stop Loss: 0.5740 (below liquidity pocket) TP1: 0.5795 TP2: 0.5820 TP3 (Extended): 0.5840+ Trade Management: If price sweeps support and closes back above → BUY confirmation. If price closes below → invalidate bullish setup and reassess.
Long
by RexTraderSignal
US Crude Oil (WTI) is moving lower to complete the 5th waveBroke out of the corrective channel formation to the downside. We continue to make lower lows and lower highs, highlighting downward momentum. The next substantial target/support level is at $57.74. This would be the completion of a bearish Elliott Wave count (five waves). Resistance is located at $58.88. The liquidity zone is seen at $59.66 to $59.80 Conclusion: I can see no technical reason for an immediate change in the bearish trend
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by IanColeman
1
Apple to NVIDIAApple vs. NVIDIA Chart Analysis Does anyone know something we don’t? This chart compares Apple to NVIDIA. As you can see, Apple relative to NVIDIA has completed a clear five-wave structure within a descending channel. Price has now reached the end of wave 5 at the bottom of its 11-year channel, showing a very sharp reaction along with strong divergences in both RSI and MACD on the monthly and weekly timeframes. Based on this, price appears highly likely to rise, potentially reaching at least the channel’s upper boundary. Potential Scenarios This chart outlines four possible scenarios: 1.Both stocks rise, but Apple outperforms NVIDIA. 2.Both stocks decline, but Apple’s drop is more limited. 3.NVIDIA declines, but Apple rises. 4.NVIDIA consolidates, while Apple rises. The trigger comes from RSI, which, considering the lower timeframe divergence on Chart B, provides reasonable reliability. For additional confirmation, one can wait for a key line breakout. Final Notes This is my personal analysis. I’d be glad to hear your thoughts. Follow me on TradingView to access more in-depth analyses and live stock trades.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by AG-Precision-Trading
BTC Is Retesting the Breakout📊 (1) MARKET STRUCTURE -BTC formed a strong bullish impulse from the Strong Support Zone, breaking above the descending trendline with a powerful breakout candle. -This shifted the market structure from bearish → bullish on H1. 📉 (2) PRICE REACTION After breaking out: -Price tapped the Weak Support Zone (highlighted purple area) -Buyers stepped in immediately — confirming support -Price is now pulling back again into the same demand area This shows bullish willingness to defend the zone. 📐 (3) HTF CONTEXT This breakout aligns with broader bullish sentiment: -BTC continues to create higher swing lows on H1. -As long as price holds above the Weak Support Zone, the trend remains bullish. 🎯 (4) EXPECTATION The most likely scenario: 📌 BTC dips into the Weak Support Zone → forms a higher low → rallies toward 94,000 – 95,200. 💥 (5) TRADING SIGNAL BUY SETUP Entry Zone: 92,200 – 92,600 (Weak Support Retest Zone) Stop Loss: Below 91,700 Take Profit Levels: TP1: 93,171 TP2: 93,596 TP3: 94,091 Final Target: 95,200 Why this setup works Strong breakout with volume Clean retest into fresh demand Higher-timeframe bullish structure Buyers showing presence at every dip This is a low-risk pullback entry inside a bullish continuation setup.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
EURUSD Is Compressing in a Falling Channel 📊 MARKET STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN (H1) 1️⃣ Bullish Impulse → Start of Correction Price created a strong upward leg, setting the tone for a bullish environment. Right after that, EU shifted into a controlled descending channel a normal corrective phase. 2️⃣ Falling Channel Structure Inside the channel: -Clear LH → LL sequences -Repeated taps on both channel boundaries -Each push into the Support Zone shows strong buying reaction (long wicks, V-bounces) This shows buyers defending the zone, not sellers taking control. 3️⃣ Current Position -Price is moving in the mid-to-lower part of the channel, heading back toward the Support Zone -This aligns with how price has been behaving for the past several days — liquidity sweep → bounce → move toward upper channel. The projection you drew is absolutely logical: A final sweep deep into the Support Zone before a bullish breakout. 🎯 TRADING SIGNAL Entry Zone: 1.1595 – 1.1620 (deep in Support Zone + channel bottom) Stop Loss: Below structure: 1.1560 Take Profit Levels: TP1: 1.1653 TP2: 1.1664 TP3 (major breakout): 1.1688 Why this setup works The falling channel is corrective, not bearish. Strong reaction every time price tests Support Zone. Liquidity tends to build below the channel → ideal environment for a sweep + expansion. The highest probability scenario: Final sweep down → bullish reversal → breakout toward 1.1688. 📈 SHORT SUMMARY EU is correcting inside a falling channel, but buyers remain in control at the Support Zone. Expect one more liquidity sweep before a strong upward breakout.
Long
by RexTraderSignal
GOLD IDEA TIME RATE 4H🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H) Market State: – Price is compressing inside a symmetrical triangle, respecting both the rising support line and the descending upper boundary, showing balanced but tightening momentum. Key Levels: – Triangle Support: ~4185–4195 – Triangle Resistance: ~4250–4260 – Liquidity Zone Below: 4128 – 4135 Next Move: – A breakout above the triangle resistance could trigger a bullish continuation leg toward higher highs. – If price rejects at the upper boundary and breaks below the rising trendline, liquidity at 4128–4135 becomes the next downside magnet.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RexTraderSignal