#022: AUD/CHF SHORT Investment Opportunity
The AUD/CHF is consolidating in a tight range after recent attempts to rally. The pair remains stuck below the 0.5265-0.5270 zone, which has acted as a liquidity-seeking area in recent sessions. Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, an independent Forex trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time.
Key Observations
The low volumes seen during the latest rally suggest the move is more related to stop-loss hunting than actual accumulation.
A confirmed break below 0.5235 on high volume could trigger accelerated downside momentum.
Broader fundamentals still favor the CHF in times of uncertainty, while the AUD struggles in risk-off conditions.
This setup aims to capture a move back towards the 0.5200 area, aligning with the upper technical resistance and a potential bearish continuation.
Community ideas
BNBUSDT 1H coin holding the channelBinance Coin keeps moving inside its upward channel, once again confirming support at the lower boundary. EMAs are aligned below price, creating a local cushion, while the volume profile highlights accumulation around 860–870.
As long as price holds above 838, the structure stays bullish with the next upside target around 920–940.
Fundamentally BNB still carries the weight of the largest exchange behind it, which adds long-term confidence for buyers.
Right now BNB looks like a train on its rails
the direction is clear, only the speed of the ride remains in question.
The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800? The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800?
Prior Bullish Momentum & Consolidation : XAUUSD entered a period of consolidation following a robust bullish rally earlier in the year. This initial surge established a strong underlying demand.
Symmetrical Triangle Formation : This consolidation phase manifested as a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This pattern typically represents a period of indecision, or accumulation/distribution, before a continuation of the prior trend.
Decisive Bullish Breakout: Gold has now executed a powerful and decisive upward breakout from the upper trendline of this symmetrical triangle. This action confirms the prevailing bullish sentiment and signals the likely resumption of the uptrend.
Key Support Level Established: The former upper trendline of the triangle, now residing around the $3500 mark, has effectively transformed into a critical immediate support level. A successful retest and hold of this level would further validate the breakout.
Strong Upward Trajectory: Post-breakout, the price action has been emphatically bullish, currently exhibiting a steep ascent within the marked green channel, indicating significant buying pressure.
Primary Price Target at Based on the measured move principle, often applied to symmetrical triangle breakouts (projecting the height of the pattern from the breakout point), our primary upside target for XAUUSD is 3800. This implies significant rally potential from current levels.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
RSI + MACD Cross + MorningStar TokyoTook this long during the Tokyo session (M15) after RSI dipped to 35 on XAUUSD. Waited for a bullish Morning Star to complete, then entered once MACD crossed bullish for extra confirmation. TP is set at 1:10, just below the high from two weeks ago.
Sharing for educational purposes — not financial advice.
EURUSD - DISTRIBUTION COMPLETEEUR/USD appears to have completed a distribution phase, with the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) aligning with the recent PPI release.
This event likely served as the final liquidity grab before a potential reversal. The rally and the distribution as a whole showed volume spikes without follow-through, reinforcing classic signs of distribution exhaustion.
Macro context supports this technical setup: while the U.S. economy is slowing, it's not collapsing—leaving room for hawkish repricing in a market currently dovishly priced for the Fed. On the other side, EURUSD is stretched, both technically and fundamentally, making it vulnerable to a correction.
PYTHUSDT Forming Bullish WavePYTHUSDT is showing a strong technical recovery after successfully retesting a key support zone. The price action indicates growing buying pressure as the coin establishes a solid base for the next bullish move. With good trading volume backing the recent surge, market sentiment is leaning positive, and the setup suggests that PYTH could be preparing for a significant rally. The expected upside potential for this move is around 70% to 80%+, which makes this pair highly attractive for both short-term and swing traders.
The current structure highlights that PYTHUSDT has broken past its accumulation range, creating a new bullish wave. This type of breakout often signals the start of a larger upward trend, especially when accompanied by increased market participation. The strength of the bounce from support levels confirms that buyers are stepping in with confidence, pushing momentum in favor of bulls.
With investor interest continuing to grow, PYTH is positioned to capitalize on market liquidity and expand further to the upside. If momentum sustains, the coin could see strong rallies toward new resistance levels in the coming days and weeks. This setup adds PYTHUSDT to the list of coins worth closely monitoring for high-percentage growth opportunities.
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GOLD 5-Minute Smart Money Analysis (Bearish Setup)🔸 OB M5 (Order Block) – A supply zone around 3,652–3,654. This is where institutional sellers may re-enter. Price is expected to retrace here before dropping again.
💧 Liquidity Level marked at 3,638.253 – below recent lows. This is where many stop-loss orders are likely placed. Smart money often targets these zones to fuel bigger moves.
⚙️ Trade Setup Idea
🔄 Wait for price to retrace into OB M5 (yellow zone)
🔻 Look for bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or market structure shift)
🎯 Target: Liquidity level at 3,638.253
🛑 Stop Loss: Just above the OB (low-risk entry)
✅ Current Bias: Bearish
As long as price stays below the OB zone, we favor shorts. Break above OB invalidates this setup
Will gold continue to rise on September 11th?
I. Core View
Gold is currently in a high-level oscillation pattern within a bullish trend. The market is driven by expectations of rate cuts, but it faces short-term technical correction pressure. The strategy is to primarily follow the trend and buy on dips, but be vigilant about the gains and losses of key support levels. A break below this level could signal a deeper correction.
II. Fundamental Analysis (News):
Main Driver (Bullish): Weak non-farm payroll data reinforces market expectations of a Fed rate cut, which is the core fundamental driver supporting gold. Expectations of a rate cut have weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, increasing the appeal of interest-free gold.
Potential Risks (Bearish):
A rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields: Both rebounded from recent lows, exerting short-term pressure on gold prices and causing some caution among bulls.
Key Data Outlook: The market is closely watching today's US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. This data will significantly influence the market's final pricing of the Fed's policy at next week's meeting, potentially triggering significant volatility. If the CPI falls short of expectations, it will reinforce expectations of a rate cut and drive gold prices higher.
If the CPI rises above expectations, it may weaken expectations of a rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on gold prices.
III. Technical Analysis
Daily Chart:
Trend: The overall trend remains bullish, but yesterday's high hammer candlestick close is a cautionary tale, suggesting weakening upward momentum and the possibility of a weakening trend or correction.
Key Support:
Absolute Stronghold: 3600 (5-day moving average). If this level holds, the market will maintain its strong momentum.
Bull Lifeline: 3550 (10-day moving average). If this level holds, the overall bullish trend remains unchanged.
4-Hour Chart:
Signal: The Bollinger Bands are closing, and the moving average has been broken, indicating a shift from a one-way uptrend to high-level fluctuations in the short term.
Bull-Bear Dividing Point: The 4-hour Bollinger Middle Band (roughly in the 3620-3630 area). If it falls below here, the short-term support will be sought further downwards (3600).
Key Positions:
Upper Resistance: 3660 (previous high), 3675 (historical high).
Support below: 3620-3630 (intraday bull-bear battle point), 3600 (strong dividing line), 3550 (trend support level). Today's strategy: Focus on buying on dips and shorting on rebounds. Focus on directional breakthroughs brought by CPI data.
1. Long Strategy (Main Strategy):
Aggressive Long: If the gold price stabilizes in the 3625-3630 area (4H Bollinger middle band support), try a small long position with a stop loss at 3615 and a target of 3650-3660.
Conservative Long: If the gold price stabilizes in the 3600-3605 area (daily 5-day moving average support), enter a long position with a stop loss at 3590 and a target of 3625-3635. If it breaks above, hold and aim for 3650.
2. Short Strategy (Supplementary Idea):
If gold prices rebound to the 3660-3665 resistance zone for the first time and then stagnate (under pressure from previous highs), a light position can be used to test short positions, with a stop-loss at 3675 and a target of 3640-3630.
Note: This strategy is intended only for short-term pullbacks. Risk is high during a strong trend, so enter and exit quickly.
3. Breakdown Strategies:
Breakdown below 3600: If the price effectively breaks below 3600, the short-term strong trend will be broken. All long positions should be cautious or exited. Focus on support at 3550.
Breakup above 3675: If the price breaks through the previous high, new upside potential will be created. Long positions can be followed by the trend, with a target of 3690-3700.
V. Risk Warning
Today's top priority: The release of the US August CPI data. Market volatility will be extremely high before and after the data is released. Investors are advised to reduce their positions or maintain short positions before the data release to mitigate the risk of uncertainty.
Strictly set stop-loss orders to limit single losses and prevent significant losses from unexpected market fluctuations.
Solana (SOL) – Chart AnalysisToday, I would like to share my current view of the Solana chart with you. I am currently tracking three possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 – Preferred: ABC correction to wave 2
In this scenario, I assume that Solana has not yet found its final bottom at around $95 on April 7, 2025.
In my opinion, wave A was only completed at that point.
We are currently moving correctively in wave B before a larger sell-off begins in wave 2.
For wave B, I expect targets in the range of $276–300.
If this range is clearly exceeded, a wave B extension to around $419 is also possible (regular chart).
Variant 2 – Long wave 4 (less preferred)
In this case, wave 4 would be completed on April 7, 2025, after an extended correction (ABC with overshooting wave B).
We would now already be in the final wave 5.
This would have potential up to the 0.618 level at around USD 516 or higher.
Important: I am looking at this variant in the logarithmic chart, as otherwise the levels do not fit neatly.
Nevertheless, this scenario is not my preferred assumption at present.
Variant 3 – very bullish scenario
Another possibility would be that wave 2 was already completed on April 7, 2025.
In this case, we would already be in a new uptrend with several 1/2 structures, which would make the chart look very bullish.
Confirmation would come if the $300 mark were to be sustainably exceeded – then this scenario could quickly become the primary one.
However, as the structure is not yet convincing, I remain cautious and continue to favor the ABC correction (scenario 1).
📌 Summary
My main scenario remains an ABC correction to wave 2 with a possible bottom between $50 and $30 (this is also where my long-term risk management lies).
Nevertheless, the various variants present exciting opportunities for traders, both in the short and medium term.
Solana therefore remains a coin that I continue to monitor very closely – especially in conjunction with the Bitcoin chart. This could also still be in a wave 4 correction before the final upward move takes place.
GOLD - BEARISH TO $3,588 (1H UPDATE)Like I said on yesterday’s update, we’re yet to see ‘Minor Wave 4’ correction on Gold, as part of the bigger Wave 3 bullish cycle.
We’ve seen a ‘Break of Structure’ as price broke below previous ‘Wave IV’ yesterday. I’ve placed a ‘Sell Stop’ order at $3,629. If this activates, I’ll be targeting $3,588📉
If this doesn’t activate, then our buy positions keep pushing higher into profit!
SPX 1D Close Up Corrective to (4) and finishing the year STRONG!Based on this count I believe that the markets will begin to go corrective starting this next week into October and finishing the year at higher highs. As always trade responsibly and wait for your confirmation bias (whatever that might be)...
GME Q2 Earnings Beat + Warrant Dividend: $32 Now the MagnetGameStop’s latest quarterly results came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the turnaround narrative. At the same time, the board announced an unusual “dividend” in the form of warrants, each giving shareholders the right to buy one share at $32 until October 2026 (record date: October 3, 2025).
With this strike price clearly visible, $32 now acts as a magnet for price action in the coming months. Market participants know that above this level the warrants gain real intrinsic value, and below it they are only speculative. It’s reasonable to assume there’s a high probability of the market testing or reaching $32 ahead of the record date.
From a technical perspective, yesterday’s breakout plus strong earnings leaves room for higher targets. According to my chart analysis, the next potential upside levels are descripted by Fibonacci's Trend-based extended figure.
Gold Futures – Short Setup to Lock in Profits🟠 Gold Futures – Short Setup to Lock in Profits
Gold has had a strong breakout above the symmetrical triangle and has now pushed into an extended move near $3,700+. While the trend remains bullish on the higher timeframe, the current leg looks overextended, and I’m looking to hedge profits with a short setup.
🔑 Key Technicals
Pattern Breakout: Gold broke out of a long consolidation wedge and accelerated higher.
Resistance Zone: Price is testing the Fib 1.618 extension near $3,750, a potential exhaustion area.
Volume Profile: Strong demand zone sits between $3,300 – $3,360 where most volume is concentrated. A pullback could retest this area.
Risk-Reward: Setup gives ~1:3.4 RR with stop above recent highs and target into the HVN zone.
📉 Trade Idea – Protective Short
Entry: 3750
Stop Loss: 3800 (extension level).
Take Profit: $3580
⚖️ Strategy
This is not a reversal call – the larger trend is still bullish. The short setup is hedge/profit-protection only, aiming to capture a pullback after the parabolic leg.
I’ll be watching if buyers can defend $3,600 on the first dip; failure to hold could accelerate selling toward the high-volume zone.
📊 Bias
Short-term: Bearish (pullback expected)
Mid-term: Neutral to Bullish (trend intact above $3,300)
What do you think – do we see a healthy correction here, or is gold too strong to fade yet?
NZDUSD – H4 Fakeout & HnS SetupWith DXY showing bullish potential, I’m shifting my focus to short opportunities against USD. Among the majors, NZDUSD stands out.
On the H4 timeframe, price action suggests a Fakeout Potential near recent highs. At the same time, structure is shaping into a possible Head and Shoulders pattern with a clear left shoulder (LS), head, and forming right shoulder (RS).
This confluence strengthens the bearish bias. A confirmed reversal on H4 would open downside targets back toward the lower range.
Daily and Weekly charts also show that upside momentum is limited, aligning well with the short idea.
Plan: Waiting for H4 confirmation before entering short.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a trade call. Analysis shared here is for educational purposes only. Please manage your own risk accordingly.
USDCHF Bearish resistance at 0.7985The USD/CHF pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 0.7985, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 0.7985 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 0.7915, followed by 0.7890 and 0.7870 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 0.7915 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 0.8000, then 0.8030.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 0.7985. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
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Pullback for accumulation; bullish momentum remains promising.Gold broke upward against the resistance of the trendline, rising to a high of around 3,658. As indicated in the morning analysis, we have advised everyone to take partial profits first on positions entered below the 3,600 level to lock in gains. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, gold has consistently maintained a "gradual upward movement amid consolidation" rhythm, with lower lows continuing to move higher, and the stability of the trend structure is remarkable.
During a one-sided upward trend, the market's response to data is biased: bullish news will be amplified, while bearish news will be overlooked. One should not rely excessively on data for trading; more seasoned traders understand the logic behind the data and the current market environment.
For subsequent moves, when the price retraces to the hourly support level, those who have already taken profits can continue to follow up with long positions. We will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you lose your direction in such a market, you are welcome to follow us and leave a message for communication to obtain more targeted analysis and trading advice.