USNAS100 | Tariff Headlines & Fed Risk Keep Bulls in ControlUSNAS100 | Policy Noise & Fed Risk Keep Bulls Active
U.S. markets remain reactive to political headlines after President Donald Trump announced a surprise tariff increase on South Korea to 25% from 15%, citing non-compliance with a trade deal agreed last July. The move impacts key sectors including autos, lumber, and pharmaceuticals.
Despite the headline risk, South Korean equities jumped nearly 2% to record highs, highlighting resilient risk appetite.
The global economic calendar remains relatively light until Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, where no rate change is expected. However, the meeting may be overshadowed by a DOJ investigation involving Chair Jerome Powell, potentially adding volatility during the press conference. Any signals regarding Powell’s future at the Fed could trigger sharp market reactions.
Technical Outlook
The price has stabilized above the 25860 pivot, keeping the bullish structure intact.
As long as price holds above 25860, upside momentum is expected toward 25985.
A confirmed 1H close above 25985 would strengthen bullish continuation toward the ATH at 26170, with extended upside risk toward 26500.
On the downside, a move below 25860 would shift momentum bearish, opening a corrective move toward 25600, followed by 25450 and 25250.
⚠️ Ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a direct volatility risk for the index.
Key Levels
• Pivot: 25860
• Support: 25600 – 25450 – 25250
• Resistance: 25985 – 26170 – 26500
Community ideas
SLV - Parabolic Exhaustion Play - $100 Puts Feb 13📉 Pattern Recognition Setup
AMEX:SLV just completed a 68% run from $65 to $110 in under 3 months. This isn’t normal commodity ETF behavior - this is meme-stock price action.
Key Observation:
The current parabolic structure mirrors the prior $30→$48 spike that collapsed violently after hitting exhaustion (see bar pattern overlay on daily). Same RSI divergence, same volume behavior, same exhaustion signature.
Technical Confluence:
• RSI: 74 (overbought with multiple bear divergence signals)
• Structure: Double top at $110 resistance zone
• Volume: 8h chart shows peak Volume surges mark local Tops/Bottoms
• Pattern Target: $88.91 measured move
• Historical Precedent: Prior parabolic collapse followed identical setup
Trade Details:
Entry: $100 Puts, Feb 13 expiration
Trigger: Close below $105 on 4H timeframe
Target: $88-90 zone
Stop: Reclaim and hold above $110 invalidates pattern
Risk Management:
This is a defined-risk speculation on technical pattern completion. When parabolic runs exhaust at resistance with stacked divergence, retracements are swift and violent - not gradual. Size accordingly.
Timeline: 11 trading days for execution
This is my own thoughts put together by Claude.ai
This is my own charting and my own words and thoughts gathered into a presentable form.
USDJPY DAY TRADING SETUPOn this Pair, We are BULLISH, after a Drastic fall on the JPY INDEX, and a sharp buying momentum on the DXY, Now USDJPY as shown us a sign of strength, breaking previous high, whilst it trend as also shifted to the UPSIDE, we have a refined KEY LEVEL on the 30minutes timeframe we an inducement created, solidifying our entry. this is a 1R - 5.03R, We will give update as price continues to play forward.
BTCUSDT HISTORY CRASH ? Overall structure is still bullish on the macro level.However, the recent behavior shows loss of momentum and distribution near the top.Current price is around 88k, sitting inside a 35+ days consolidation range after a sell-off. Secondly a big confirmation allience that US Bonds market break the 40 years resistance that make sence the BTC history crash is ahead.
Buckle up !!!
BA – Daily Technical AnalysisBoeing is testing a major long-term descending trendline, acting as a strong supply zone.
Price is reacting right at this resistance, making this a critical decision area.
Technical Structure
• Overall structure: Wide range with descending ceiling
• Price at dynamic resistance
• Moving average is flattening → momentum slowing
• Initial rejection visible
Key Levels
• Major Resistance:
242 – 246
• Breakout Targets:
260 → 280
• Near Support:
228 – 230
• Key Support:
215
• Lower Support:
200
Bullish Scenario (Breakout)
If:
• Daily close above 246
• Successful retest of the trendline
➡️ Confirms a long-term breakout.
Upside Targets:
260 → 280 → 300
Bearish Scenario (Rejection)
If:
• Price fails to hold above resistance
• Loses the moving average
➡️ A corrective move is likely.
Downside Targets:
230 → 215 → 200
Final Takeaway
BA is at a make-or-break level.
This is either the start of a multi-month breakout,
or another rejection into range.
Pyth should be on your watch list. PYTH remains within a broader downtrend, but short-term structure is beginning to improve.
Price is holding a local demand base where buyers have consistently stepped in. Compression is developing between support and the range high, suggesting a potential expansion phase ahead.
Momentum is turning higher from depressed levels, indicating selling pressure is fading. Volatility has reset and is starting to curl upward, a typical precondition for a directional move. Volume remains light, so confirmation is still needed.
Key Structure
• Local demand holding
• Range compression forming
• Momentum improving
• Volatility resetting
Outlook
Acceptance above the range high would support continuation, while failure to do so likely keeps price in consolidation or leads to another sweep of demand.
Early structure forming. Patience over prediction.
Selena | USDJPY – 4H – Bullish Structure Under CorrectionFX:USDJPY
The recent drop represents a liquidity-driven correction rather than confirmed trend reversal. Price is now testing a critical support zone aligned with previous demand and the lower boundary of the broader structure. Holding this region keeps the bullish continuation scenario valid.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 →
Sustained support above 151.00–150.60 may trigger a corrective bounce
🎯 Target 1: 154.00
🎯 Target 2: 156.50
🎯 Target 3: 159.00–160.00 (HTF Liquidity)
❌ Bearish Case 📉 (Invalidation) →
Acceptance below 150.00 would weaken bullish structure and open deeper downside.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 154.00 – 157.50
Support 🟢: 151.00 – 150.00
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice
EUR/AUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍
Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money.
My fundamental scoring table speaks clearly: there is a huge differential that we cannot ignore.
Key Factor Analysis:
🏦 Rate Expectations: Explanation: The BCE remains neutral at 2.15%, holding for two consecutive meetings, while the RBA maintains a higher rate of 3.6% with a neutral but relatively hawkish stance. Score EUR: 0 Score AUD: +1
+4
🎈 Inflation: Explanation: Eurozone inflation is at 1.9%, below the 2% target, creating dovish pressure. Conversely, Australian inflation is high at 3.8%, well above target, maintaining hawkish pressure. Score EUR: -1 Score AUD: +1
+2
📈 Growth/GDP: Explanation: The Eurozone faces concerning stagnation with growth at 0.7%. Australia shows more solid growth at 2.3%, though high inflation makes it sensitive. Score EUR: -1 Score AUD: 0
+2
🏭 PMI Data: Explanation: EUR PMI is mixed (Manufacturing 49.4, Services 51.9). AUD Services PMI saw a significant acceleration (+4.9 to 56.0), indicating strong expansion. Score EUR: 0 Score AUD: 0
+4
⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: EUR is acting as semi-cyclical and neutral, while AUD remains cyclical but currently in a neutral regime with no specific bias. Score EUR: 0 Score AUD: 0
+2
🗞️ News Catalyst: Explanation: No significant fiscal crisis news for either region; focus remains on the divergent inflation paths and PMI momentum. Score EUR: 0 Score AUD: 0
+1
Currency Score Summary:
Total Score EUR: -1 (Weak) Total Score AUD: +3 (Strong)
+2
Synthesis:
EUR (Weak, Score -1): Stagnant growth and below-target inflation are weighing on the Euro. AUD (Strong, Score +3): Higher interest rates and accelerating services PMI make the Aussie the clear favorite.
Conclusion: With this scenario, we are only looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide.
+3
2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉
Timeframe: 4H | Pair: EUR/AUD
The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie:
🚀 Continuation Rate (66.7%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal.
🔥 Streak (4) & Streak Pct (3): We are at the 4th consecutive impulse. It's a mature trend, sitting in the 3rd percentile of extension—watch those stop losses, but as long as the music plays, we dance.
🔄 Retest (79.8%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 79.8% of the time. This gives us high confidence that our entry zone will be reached.
💥 BOS/Ret Rate (57.8%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a 57.8% probability of reacting and creating a new BOS.
🎯 Extension Rate (1.66x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.66 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit.
3. Execution Plan on Chart
Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss:
Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 4H (Red Band) at 1.71276 and the stop loss a few pips above the zone at 1.71846.
Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.6x relative to the pullback leg.
Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 1.71276 Stop Loss: 1.71846 Take Profit: 1.67569
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
DeGRAM | EURGBP is forming a double bottom📊 Technical Analysis
● EUR/GBP is rebounding from a well-defined support area near 0.8650–0.8600, where price respected the rising support line and formed a base after a descending correction.
● The latest triangle consolidation broke upward, suggesting a corrective bullish phase toward the descending resistance line around 0.8690–0.8720.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Persistent UK economic uncertainty and softer growth outlook contrast with relatively stable Eurozone data, supporting medium-term EUR resilience against GBP.
✨ Summary
● Price is holding above key support.
● A medium-term recovery toward 0.8690–0.8720 is favored while 0.8600 holds.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Gold Jan 29 Intraday Trade 📊 XAUUSD INTRADAY TRADING PLAN
Strategy: SMC + EMA + RSI + MACD + Ichimoku
Higher Timeframe Bias: 1H
Execution Timeframe: 5m–15m
Main Bias: BUY following the bullish trend
🧭 1. Market Structure & Trend (1H)
SMC: Clear Higher High – Higher Low structure → bullish continuation.
EMA: Price above EMA50 & EMA200, EMA50 trending upward.
Ichimoku: Price above the Kumo, Tenkan above Kijun.
RSI: Holding above 50, no overbought condition yet.
MACD: Positive histogram, MACD above Signal line.
➡️ Conclusion: Bullish bias remains valid. Priority is BUY setups.
🎯 2. TRADE SETUPS WITH TP & SL
🟢 SETUP 1 – BUY PULLBACK (Primary Setup)
Entry Zone: 5538 – 5542 (1H Demand + FVG)
Confirmation on 5m:
Price holds above EMA200.
RSI pulls back to 40–50 and bounces.
MACD bullish crossover or bullish divergence.
Strong bullish confirmation candle.
Entry: 5540
Stop Loss: 5532
Take Profit 1: 5550
Take Profit 2: 5560
Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5
🟢 SETUP 2 – BUY BREAKOUT
Trigger Zone: Break & Retest above 5550
Conditions:
H1 candle closes above 5550.
Successful retest holding above the level.
RSI above 55.
MACD expanding bullish momentum.
Price above Kumo on lower timeframe.
Entry: 5552
Stop Loss: 5544
Take Profit 1: 5562
Take Profit 2: 5570
Risk–Reward: ~1:2
🔴 SETUP 3 – SHORT-TERM SELL (Counter-Trend)
⚠️ Only valid with strong confirmation at supply.
Entry Zone: 5565 – 5570 (Supply + Liquidity Sweep)
Conditions:
RSI above 70 with bearish divergence.
MACD bearish crossover.
Price enters Kumo on 5m.
Strong bearish rejection candle.
Entry: 5568
Stop Loss: 5576
Take Profit 1: 5555
Take Profit 2: 5545
Risk–Reward: ~1:2
⏰ 3. Best Trading Sessions
London & New York sessions preferred.
Avoid trading in the middle of the range without SMC confirmation.
🧠 4. Risk & Trade Management
Risk per trade: 1–2% max.
Secure partial profits at TP1 and move SL to breakeven.
Avoid holding counter-trend trades during high-impact news.
📌 5. Quick Summary
Bias: Bullish on 1H.
Buy Pullback: 5540 | SL 5532 | TP 5550–5560.
Buy Breakout: 5552 | SL 5544 | TP 5562–5570.
Short-term Sell: 5568 | SL 5576 | TP 5555–5545.
Still I believe on thisNo matter what till we don’t find a support on the daily and weekly timeframe above, 100-102 k I still remain bearish because I find more weakness in the price action than the bullish sign
I have talked about this potential head and shoulder pattern since long time ago and what we can see here look like it’s really happening. So be careful guys unless we can take over the support above 102K and from there we can analyze the market one more time be Patient and trade smart guys. Best of luck be preferable.
EUR/USD: Multi-Wave Corrective Cycle and Major Support TestThe EUR/USD pair is currently developing a complex corrective structure on the 15-minute timeframe. Following a strong rejection from the recent swing highs near 1.20000, the price action is showing a clear shift into a bearish distribution phase. The market is now oscillating within a descending series of peaks, seeking to mitigate imbalances created during the previous impulsive move.
Technical Observations:
Distribution at Premium: The price has formed a localized "Lower High" structure after failing to sustain momentum above the 1.19872 level. This indicates that institutional sellers are defending the upper boundary of the range.
Forecasted Corrective Trajectory: As illustrated by the black forecast path, we anticipate a multi-wave decline. This structure involves several minor internal rallies (relief bounces) that are expected to be sold into, leading the price toward deeper liquidity pools.
Key Support Objectives:
Primary Target: 1.19000 – This immediate purple demand zone represents a significant structural floor where initial buy-side interest is concentrated.
Major Objective: 1.18200 – A deeper extension toward the foundational support block (lower purple box), which marks the base of the primary accumulation phase.
Risk Parameters: The bearish outlook for this correction is invalidated if the price produces a decisive 15-minute candle close back above the 1.19900 mark. Such a move would suggest a resumption of the bullish trend toward new highs.
Execution Logic: This setup favors a "Sell the Rally" strategy within the corrective phase. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation—such as rejection wicks or engulfing candles—at the peaks of the projected relief bounces before targeting the major demand zones below.
EUR/USD Bearish Rejection at Resistance – Downside Targets AheadEUR/USD is showing clear signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish move. Price has reached a key resistance zone near the top, where multiple rejections are visible, indicating strong selling pressure. The break below the rising trendline suggests a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. Volatility is increasing, and buyers are struggling to maintain control above resistance. The overall structure now favors a corrective move to the downside as sellers step in aggressively. If price continues to trade below resistance, further downside is likely. The first bearish target is 1.19094, where minor support is expected. A continuation move can push price toward the second target at 1.18456. If selling momentum remains strong, the final target lies near 1.17732, aligning with previous support and demand areas. Risk management is essential in current conditions.
If you found this XAUUSD analysis helpful, don’t forget to LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬!
CHZ/USDT at a Critical Zone — Breakout or Another Rejection?CHZ/USDT on the Weekly (1W) timeframe remains in a long-term downtrend since its 2021 peak. Price is currently testing the upper boundary of a descending channel, an area that historically acts as a key decision zone—either leading to a strong rejection or a valid breakout. While short-term momentum shows signs of recovery, sellers still control the broader market structure.
---
Pattern & Technical Structure
Descending Channel (Bearish Continuation Pattern)
Price has been moving consistently within a downward-sloping channel defined by:
Upper resistance (red trendline) → dynamic resistance
Lower support (yellow trendline) → major dynamic support
As long as price remains inside the channel, the primary trend stays bearish
Current price action at the upper channel makes this a high-risk, high-impact decision area
---
Key Levels
Major Resistance:
0.07500 → minor resistance / initial reaction zone
0.14000 – 0.16600 → mid-term supply zone
0.27500 → major resistance & trend reversal confirmation
Major Support:
0.05400 → short-term support
0.03500 → important weekly support
0.01000 → extreme demand zone / lower channel boundary
---
Bullish Scenario
Price breaks above and closes weekly above the descending channel
Breakout supported by increasing volume
Upside targets:
0.07500
0.14000 – 0.16600
0.27500 as the main target
A valid breakout could mark the end of the bearish structure and the start of a medium-term trend reversal
Bullish Confirmation:
Weekly close above the red resistance trendline
Successful retest of the upper channel as support
---
Bearish Scenario
Price fails to break the upper channel and forms a clear rejection (long wicks or bearish weekly candle)
Selling pressure resumes
Downside targets:
0.03500
0.01000 (lower channel)
As long as price stays inside the channel, upside moves are considered relief rallies
Bearish Confirmation:
Strong rejection at dynamic resistance
Breakdown below the 0.05400 support level
---
Conclusion
CHZ/USDT is trading at a critical long-term decision zone on the Weekly timeframe.
This area will likely determine whether price:
Breaks out → Trend reversal
Gets rejected → Continuation of the downtrend
Traders are advised to wait for weekly confirmation, as this zone is highly prone to fake breakouts.
#CHZ #CHZUSDT #Altcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #WeeklyChart #DescendingChannel #TrendReversal #CryptoTrading
TESLA FREE SIGNAL|
✅TESLA reacts strongly from discounted demand after liquidity sweep, forming bullish displacement. Expect continuation toward premium as imbalance fills and buy-side strength holds.
—————————
Entry: $431.55
Stop Loss: $417.14
Take Profit: $451.76
Time Frame: 4H
—————————
LONG🚀
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XAUUSD – M45 Technical OutlookXAUUSD – M45 Technical Outlook: Strong Momentum, Now Watch Liquidity Reactions | Lana ✨
Gold has surged above $5,250, extending its bullish run with strong momentum. Price action remains constructive, but as the market pushes deeper into premium territory, liquidity reactions become more important than raw momentum.
📈 Market Structure & Price Action
Gold continues to trade inside a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish structure.
Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) points on the chart highlight persistent buyer control.
The recent leg higher was aggressive, indicating momentum-driven buying, but also increasing the likelihood of short-term reactions.
At current levels, the market is extended above value, which often precedes either consolidation or a controlled pullback.
🔍 Key Technical Zones on M45
Upper Supply / Reaction Zone: 5280 – 5310
This area represents a premium zone where price may face profit-taking or liquidity sweeps before choosing direction.
Immediate Support (Channel Mid / Retest Zone): 5200 – 5220
A key area where price could pull back and attempt to hold structure.
Strong Sell-Side Liquidity Zone: around 5050
Marked clearly on the chart, this is a deeper level where liquidity is resting and where stronger buyer reactions could emerge if the pullback extends.
As long as price remains inside the channel, the broader bullish bias stays intact.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Extension With Caution:
If price continues higher into the 5280–5310 zone, expect increased volatility and potential short-term rejection. This area is better suited for risk management and observation, not aggressive chasing.
Scenario 2 – Healthy Pullback (Preferred):
A pullback toward 5200–5220 would allow price to rebalance liquidity while maintaining structure. Holding this zone supports continuation within the channel.
Scenario 3 – Deeper Liquidity Sweep:
If volatility expands, a move toward the ~5050 sell-side liquidity zone could occur before a stronger continuation leg develops.
🌍 Market Context (Brief)
Gold’s sharp move above $5,250 reflects ongoing demand for safe-haven assets amid persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Strong daily gains reinforce bullish sentiment, but such vertical moves also tend to attract short-term profit-taking, making structure and liquidity levels critical.
🧠 Lana’s View
The trend is bullish, but not every bullish move is a buy.
At extended levels, Lana focuses on how price reacts at liquidity zones, not on chasing momentum.
✨ Respect the structure, stay patient near extremes, and let the market come to your levels.
Pandora (PNDORA) - Reversal PlayOMXCOP:PNDORA
My Thesis in 4 Bullets:
The market fears $112/oz silver costs, but the CFO just confirmed they are >75% hedged for 2026 (likely locked near ~$35/oz).They will also have time to adjust jewelry`s silver to metal ratio.
Valuation Dislocation: Pandora trades at ~7.5x P/E while peers like Signet and Richemont trade at ~26x. A simple reversion to 12x doubles the stock.
The "India" Call Option: The EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a hidden catalyst. It eliminates tariffs on gems/jewelry, lowering component costs and unlocking the Indian luxury market.
Silver Mean Reversion: Commodities are cyclical. If silver drops in H2 2026, today's "headwind" becomes a massive earnings explosion for 2027.
DCF Analysis: Professional Models Confirm the Upside
Alpha Spread's DCF valuation (updated Jan 24, 2026) shows a Base Case fair value of 1,611.59 DKK, a 237% upside from the current 478.7 DKK price. The model shows the stock is undervalued by 70%.
Current Price: 483 DKK
DCF Fair Value (Base Case): 1,611.59 DKK | Upside: +234%
Conservative Target (12x P/E): ~850 DKK | Upside: +76%
Even if you haircut the DCF model by 50% to account for the current crisis, fair value is 800 DKK, still 66% upside from here.
My Trade: I'm entering with 1/3 position at 483 DKK today (along side Blackrock). I'll add more if Feb 5th guidance scares weak hands down to 450-400 DKK. My target is 850 DKK by Dec 2026.
All thoughts are appreciated! Best.






















