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Pounddollar

Risk Sentiment Improves, GBP/USD Nears 1.3650GBP/USD extended its rally for a third session, trading around 1.3620 and holding close to Tuesday’s high of 1.3648, its strongest level since February 2022. The pair continues to benefit from improved risk appetite as Middle East tensions ease following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Despite the initial increase, investors remain cautious as doubts persist over the ceasefire’s durability and potential nuclear negotiations with Iran. Focus is also on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which continues to raise geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, Powell, in his congressional testimony, signaled that rate cuts are unlikely before Q4. He acknowledged that new tariffs could push inflation higher from June but maintained that the Fed is prepared to ease policy once conditions allow. Resistance is seen at 1.3655, while support holds at 1.3540.
by ChartMage
British Pound Slips to One-Month LowGBP/USD briefly climbed to 1.3560 in early European trading, supported by dollar softness and anticipation of upcoming speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell. However, the pair remains under pressure, as market doubts linger around the ceasefire’s durability, especially after new missile activity by Israel’s IDF. Fed rate cut expectations continue to build: odds for July are now at 23%, and 78% for September, fueled by dovish remarks from Governor Bowman. Resistance is seen at 1.3600, while support holds at 1.3500.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is strengthening to 1.3560 in the early European session on Tuesday, helped by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she would favor an interest rate cut at the next meeting in July if inflationary pressures remain muted. Bowman's comments echoed those of Fed chief Christopher Waller, who said on Friday that he believes the U.S. central bank may consider a rate cut in July. Traders now put the probability of a rate change at the July meeting at nearly 23%, and the probability that the Fed will cut rates in September at about 78%. On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and renewed tensions in the Middle East could increase safe-haven flows, supporting the Pound Sterling (GBP). The Israel Defense Forces said early Tuesday it had detected rockets launched from Iran towards southern Israel, despite US President Donald Trump saying a “full and final” ceasefire between Israel and Iran would take effect. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3545, SL 1.3645, TP 1.3345
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Weakens Ahead of PMI ReleasesGBP/USD fell to around 1.3405 during Monday’s Asian session as safe-haven flows strengthened the US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Fears of Iranian retaliation after US airstrikes on three nuclear sites lifted demand for the Greenback. Trump said Iran’s facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of stronger attacks unless peace is reached. Iran vowed to respond, saying it “reserves all options.” Investors await June PMI data from the UK and US due later Monday. The Pound remains under pressure after UK retail sales dropped 2.7% MoM in May, well below the expected 0.5% decline and April’s revised 1.3% gain. The BoE held rates at 4.25% last Thursday. Governor Bailey said rates are on a gradual downward path but warned of global unpredictability. Reuters expects 25 bps cuts in both August and Q4. Resistance is seen at 1.3500, while support holds at 1.3415.
by ChartMage
Sterling Flat Before BoE and Fed Policy DecisionsGBP/USD trades near 1.3435 on Wednesday, steadying after a 1.2% drop Tuesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and safe-haven dollar demand. The pound stays under pressure ahead of today’s UK inflation report and tomorrow’s BoE decision, where rates are expected to remain at 4.25%. Any inflation surprise could shift market expectations. Ongoing Middle East conflict continues to support the dollar, while traders also await the Fed’s policy announcement later today, which could influence GBP/USD further. Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
by ChartMage
Pound Stable as Markets Eye BoE, Fed MovesGBP/USD remains below Friday’s three-year high, trading around the mid-1.3500s in a narrow range during Monday’s Asian session. The pair shows limited downside as traders await a busy week of key data and central bank decisions. Markets are watching the UK CPI on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday, both crucial for the Pound. The US Federal Reserve will also decide on rates Wednesday, likely guiding the dollar’s short-term path. Friday’s UK GDP showed a 0.3% contraction in April, increasing bets on faster BoE rate cuts. The USD is supported by safe-haven flows due to Middle East tensions, though soft US inflation data has raised expectations for Fed cuts by September. A broadly positive global risk mood is offering some support to GBP/USD. Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 11, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair continues to decline to around 1.34750 during Wednesday's Asian trading session. The pound sterling (GBP) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) due to a weaker UK employment report. Later on Wednesday, attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. The ILO unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.6% in the three months to April from 4.5% previously, the British Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. The figure was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the change in the number of applicants for unemployment benefits in May was 33,100, compared with -21,200 previously (revised from 5,200), which is below the consensus of 9,500. In addition, average earnings excluding bonuses in the UK rose 5.2% year-on-year (3M YoY) in April, compared with a revised 5.5% increase in the previous reading. The market forecast was 5.4%. Average earnings including bonuses rose 5.3% over the same period after accelerating to a revised 5.6% in the quarter to March. The data fell short of the forecast of 5.5%. These figures indicate that the UK labor market is losing momentum under pressure from tax increases and the minimum wage hike by the government. This, in turn, may put some pressure on the pound sterling in the near term. “This gradual slowdown in wage growth may reassure the Bank of England after inflation unexpectedly jumped to its highest level in more than a year last month,” said Paige Tao, an economist at PwC UK. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34800, SL 1.35100, TP 1.34100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Buys from 1.34800 This week’s analysis focuses on capitalising on the strong bullish structure forming on GU. After a clear break of structure to the upside, price has been forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. From this move, a key Point of Interest has been left around the 1.34800 level, which aligns with a clean 9H demand zone. As price now needs to retrace after the recent bullish push, this 9H zone becomes a likely area for accumulation and a potential continuation rally. Confluences for GU Buys: - GU has been very bullish overall on the higher timeframes - The 9H demand zone caused the latest break of structure to the upside - There’s plenty of liquidity and imbalance above that needs to be taken - The DXY is moving bearish, supporting GU upside P.S. If price pushes higher before retracing, it may enter a premium supply zone, where I’ll be watching for any significant reaction. Either way, patience is key — don’t hesitate to wait for your setup to fully form. Wishing you a focused and profitable trading week!
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBPUSD: Potential Reversal After Strong RallyThe British Pound has shown strong gains against the US Dollar, approaching a key resistance area. After such an extended move, a correction or reversal would be a logical expectation. Technical Setup There is a clear series of bearish divergences on the CCI (14) indicator. Price is forming a narrowing rising wedge, which often signals trend exhaustion. Trade Plan Sell limit orders: 1.3690 and 1.3850 Market entry: Only after confirmation — either a trendline break or a moving average crossover Conclusion GBPUSD shows signs of weakening at the top. I remain focused on short setups from resistance areas, waiting for confirmation to act.
Short
by InvestWorld_777
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair attracted sellers during Tuesday's Asian session and broke part of a strong overnight move up towards the 1.3560 area, or multi-day peak. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, rebounded from a six-week low reached on Monday and proved to be a key factor putting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. In addition, concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal situation and renewed trade tensions between the US and China should help limit USD gains. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, may continue to receive support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a pause at its next meeting on June 18 and will not rush to cut interest rates further. Traders may also prefer to wait for the hearing of the Bank of England's monetary policy report in Parliament. Investors will be closely watching comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for information on the policy outlook, which in turn will influence the GBP exchange rate. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3495, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3295
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Shorts from the daily supplyI’m anticipating a potential retracement as price has been heavily bullish and is now beginning to show signs of being overbought. After recently breaking major structure to the upside, there’s room for a temporary sell-off as price corrects before continuing higher. I’ll be watching for possible reactions from the 59-minute demand zone for a minor bounce, but the more ideal long opportunity would be at the 12H demand zone around 1.3300, where structure is cleaner and confluences align. Confluences for Short-Term Sells: - A recent change of character (CHOCH) to the downside signals a shift in momentum - A clean daily supply zone has been left behind that could initiate a deeper pullback - Significant liquidity below, including the Asia low, ready to be swept - For price to maintain long-term bullish movement, it must first correct, fill imbalances, and mitigate valid demand levels P.S. If price drops further and breaks structure, we’ll likely see a new supply zone form. This will provide a closer and more refined opportunity to participate in the move. Stay sharp and trade safe! 📉📈
Short
by Hassan_fx
4
Sterling Holds Ahead of U.S. GDPGBP/USD trades near 1.3435 on Thursday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar after a court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling he lacked authority to impose them. Markets now await preliminary US Q1 GDP data. Fed minutes showed rising uncertainty, with policymakers favoring a cautious, steady rate path. In the UK, food inflation rose for a fourth month, prompting Barclays to delay its rate cut forecast to February 2026, which may support the Pound. The first critical support for gold is seen at 1.3425 and the first resistance is located at 1.3600.
by ChartMage
Pound Tops $1.357 on Solid DataGBP/USD advanced above $1.357, hitting its highest level since February 2022, as Trump’s delay of the 50% EU tariff boosted global sentiment. The pound also gained from promising April data, with retail sales rising 1.2%, marking the fourth monthly gain. Inflation stayed high at 3.5%, adding uncertainty over the BoE’s next move. Markets now price in a 50% chance of a rate cut by August, with another possible by year-end. Support lies at 1.3425, with resistance at 1.3600. Other key levels are 1.3850 and 1.3750 above, and 1.3165 and 1.2890 below.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD bullish run still going?This week’s analysis for GU is centred around the current pro-trend momentum and where we could see potential entries to continue riding it. To begin with, there’s a refined 3D supply zone located at a premium level which could cause a short-term bearish reaction. I’ll be monitoring this area for any possible short setups — but only with strong confirmation. However, the overall structure remains predominantly bullish, as shown by a series of higher highs and higher lows, along with significant breaks of structure. The most relevant point of interest for a bullish continuation sits around the 1.34200 level, where a clean 9H demand zone resides. This is where I’ll be looking to enter long positions if price retraces to that area. Confluences for GU Buys: - Clear formation of higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish structure - Strong 9H demand zone that initiated the recent break of structure - Liquidity above still yet to be cleared - DXY remains bearish, supporting continued bullish momentum on GBP/USD P.S. Don’t get too caught up chasing countertrend moves. The real edge lies in identifying the nearest POI that aligns with the overall trend and waiting for your setup to unfold there.
Long
by Hassan_fx
4
GBP/USD Firms as UK Data Performs WellGBP/USD edged up by 0.25% in Friday’s Asian session, nearing 1.3450, after upbeat UK retail sales and consumer confidence data lifted sentiment. The GfK index rose to -20 in May, beating forecasts, while April retail sales surprised to the upside. However, PMI data showed divergence as manufacturing fell to 45.1 (vs. 46.0 expected), while services ticked up to 50.2 from 49.0. The pound also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar as Treasury yields retreated from 19-month highs. Trump’s budget bill, which includes tax breaks on tips and U.S.-made car loans, passed narrowly and is projected to add $3.8 billion to the deficit. Resistance is at 1.3470, followed by 1.3550 and 1.3700. Key support lies at 1.3250, then 1.3150 and 1.3000.
by ChartMage
Sterling Extends Rally Amid U.S. Fiscal ConcernsGBP/USD extended its gains for a fourth consecutive session, trading near 1.3430 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair’s upward movement is largely supported by continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar, following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, in line with earlier downgrades by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s cited projections that U.S. federal debt could surge to 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit potentially widening to nearly 9% of GDP. Key concerns include rising interest payments, growing social expenditures, and weakening tax revenues. The first critical support for GBP/USD is seen at 1.3450 and the first resistance is located at 1.3250.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair rose slightly on Tuesday, rising to 1.34000 (but failed to overcome it). The price is ahead of key inflation and business outlook data: the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due out on Wednesday and a double dose of UK and US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results on Thursday. Trade news remains the key driver for global markets this week. Investors remain hopeful of a deal with the US that will encourage the Trump administration to pull the tariff gun away from the head of its own economy, but the constant drift into the unknown is starting to limit bullish sentiment. The Trump administration is rapidly approaching its self-imposed 90-day deadline to pass a package of “retaliatory tariffs.” While some potential trade deals have been announced, nothing concrete has emerged. UK CPI inflation for April will be released early Wednesday. Mid-market forecasts expect the monthly CPI to rise to 1.1% m/m from the previous reading of 0.3%. Annual CPI is also expected to rise to 3.3% from 2.6%. UK core CPI inflation is also expected to rise, to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%. A double batch of UK and US PMIs will be released on Thursday. Markets are expecting a broad-based increase in indexed forward-looking business activity survey results, while mixed data is expected in the US. The US manufacturing PMI for May is expected to decline to 50.1 from 50.2, while the services component is expected to remain unchanged at 50.8. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34200, SL 1.33900, TP 1.34900
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD potential shorts back downMy analysis revolves around a possible bearish reaction from the 2‑hour supply zones. If price does respect these zones, I’ll look for a sell setup to drive price lower—though I’ll approach with caution because there’s liquidity resting just above those points of interest. Should price push downward, my next target is the 10‑hour demand zone that triggered the recent change of character. This discounted area could spark a bullish response. Confluences for GU sells are as follows: - An unmitigated 4‑hour supply zone overhead. - A “sell‑to‑buy” scenario fits: price sits closer to supply and still needs a retracement. - Imbalance and untapped liquidity lie below, inviting a move south. - Liquidity has just been swept above, leaving a clean supply zone behind. P.S. If price punches through these supply zones and breaks structure to the upside, I’ll watch for the new zone that forms—there could be a nearer‑term long opportunity from there.
Short
by Hassan_fx
2
Pound Gains on Strong UK GDPThe British pound climbed to $1.3320 on Friday after strong UK GDP data showed the economy grew 0.7% in Q1 and 1.3% year-over-year, easing pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates aggressively. While a cut is still likely, the solid growth figures suggest urgency has diminished. At the same time, a softer U.S. dollar, driven by speculation that the U.S. may be allowing depreciation to support exports, has supported sterling. However, the UK’s broader outlook remains mixed, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth signaling uneven momentum. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3350, with additional levels at 1.3450 and 1.3550. Support levels are at 1.3160, 1.3000, and 1.2960.
by ChartMage
Pound Steadies with Trade Deal ReliefThe GBP/USD pair opened Thursday with gains following the Bank of England’s expected 25 basis point rate cut, but the pound’s momentum faded as attention turned to U.S. trade developments. By Friday morning, the pair was trading around 1.3240. Sentiment shifted toward the U.S. dollar after the Trump administration announced an upcoming trade deal with the UK, helping Britain avoid steep reciprocal tariffs originally set to resume on July 9. While some relief came from Trump’s earlier ‘Liberation Day’ delay, a broad 10% tariff on all UK imports to the U.S. remains on track, potentially weighing on sentiment. Refined ethanol has been fully exempted, though U.S. import data shows none has been sourced from the UK in over 15 years. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3280, resistance levels come in at 1.3450 and 1.3550. Support lies at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.
by ChartMage