Monero: brave enough for a bounce? key levels to watch todayMonero. Who’s brave enough to touch the privacy bad boy after this liquidation candle? Recent headlines keep hammering privacy coins with more regulatory heat and talk of delistings, and the market clearly dumped first, asking questions later. Now price is sitting on a major 4H demand zone that last launched the big pump on this chart.
On the 4H, we just flushed into the 300 area with RSI buried in oversold and starting to curl up, hinting at bullish divergence. Volume profile shows a fat node above around 360 where a lot of bags changed hands, so any bounce has “magnet” potential. I’m leaning toward a short‑term relief rally rather than fresh lows right away, especially if sellers start to stall here.
My base case: hold 300 and we squeeze back into 345‑365, with a stretch target near 390 if momentum really clicks ✅. If 300 gives way on strong volume, the trap flips and I’ll look for continuation down toward 260‑270 instead. I’m waiting for a clear 4H reversal candle to join a bounce play here… and yeah, I might be wrong, but catching panic after forced selling is where some of the best trades are born.
Privacy
OLDIES GOLDIES $XVG VERGE THE GHOST OF 2017. 👻
While everyone chases new memes, the "Old Gods" are waking up.
Look at SGX:XVG (Verge): It has been compressing inside a massive wedge for 9 YEARS. Price is squeezed into the absolute corner.
When this asset moves, it doesn't climb; it teleports. The orange arrow isn't a prediction; it's a memory of how this coin behaves.
Status: Loading... 99%
ZEC - Time to lay a bit (part.3)Our little pause from our previous zec shorts went well, its now almost back at our entry price !
4h showing a fake out with high volume and a break of a lower trendline
> thats my short signals
(sorry volume not showed here but be sure im using it)
I will TP on all the fibs retracement (same not showed on chart) and refill on shorts if I see bearish continuation !
Im playing very safe here as i expect BTC to go higher than 94 at some point
I will react on whats happening later !
Will let you know all by updating this idea
SL around 600
Cheers
[LOI] - Levels of Interest - SCRT - SCRT
Key Points
Secret Bridge for XMR Enhances Privacy in Cross-Chain Transfers: It addresses exposure risks in standard bridges by enabling confidential bridging of Monero (XMR) to Secret Network as sXMR, preserving anonymity while allowing DeFi participation without revealing transaction details.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook for SCRT: Driven by growing demand for programmable privacy in DeFi and AI.
Crypto Macro Influences: Recent oil seizures and tariffs may boost illicit trade (estimated at $2-3 trillion globally), increasing need for privacy tools like SCRT; pro-crypto shifts under Trump could spark altcoin growth, but economic pressures like inflation might delay it.
AI Push in Privacy Landscape: Secret Network leads with confidential AI via TEEs, ensuring private data processing; this aligns with rising enterprise adoption (projected 60% by 2027) amid data breach concerns, potentially positioning SCRT as a hub for secure AI.
Please note that this is a preliminary research paper and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
TheBitcoinGeneration
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by
Dash, and it's historic movements Good day fellow traders and investors,
Today I'm taking a deep dive into into DASH, an "OG" coin with privacy as it's utility.
Way back in 2022 in the depths of the bear market, I posted a chart stating how I was expecting or anticipating an alternating or lengthening ALT-COIN cycle. in that post I picked 6 "OG", dyno or boomer coins... Call them what you want.
XRP
LTC
XMR
BCH
DASH
DGB
These were coins , two are specifically designed as Privacy with one LTC has had an added option as a side chain through mimblewimble, the best privacy protocol hands down. Not included although fits the criteria is ZCASH. XRP & BCH was the first to show signs of this theory has some validity. Then in February of 2025 I made a post with XMR stating the upcoming privacy use case narrative and explosion that would inevitably come. As of right now XMR and DASH are showing signs of continuation and fruition of this thesis manifesting.
Concentrating on DASH and it's historic patterns, We can see a distinct pattern could be showing signs of early Bullish pattern. This is a one week chart of the entire history Dash on Kraken. Other than my markings it's a naked chart with only 2 indicators, the volume and the Gaussian channel. The key here is the Gaussian channel and the color and color change from red to green. When the Gaussian flips to green and DASH is above it this usually means it's in a bull trend. A bounce off the top of this channel is typically a confirmation, which we just received the last few weeks. Look at the respect if showed to this area and the bounce it took off of it just this week!! It exploded with a 150% move. This could only be the beginning of a 1 to 2 year uptrend with DASH that could prove to be another epic run.
Holding and staying above a GREEN Gaussian is the basic key to this move.
I have also done some math and Fibonacci calculations to a possible high 3 thousand low 4 thousand USD top, call it 4k.
Last but not least, the volume. It has had a massive spike, for me this is confluence and one more confirmation.
Please share your thoughts and comments down below.
If you like and agree with the Idea please give it a like and share.
Regards,
WeAreSat0shi
ZEC Zcash redemption arc 2025 $500This Privacy Project has been a terrible performer. So anticipate more of that trend.
However since it is PoW and has a Halving in just over 1 year, that following supply deterioration should create a pump cycle
In the 12 months ahead prior to halving I will recommend DCA under $30 and then plan to begin selling above $150
O' Barry Where Art Thou?
Zcash Breakout Long IdeaIf you're like me, you missed the "privacy coin" meta narrative that sent Zooko's Zcash CRYPTOCAP:ZEC (and to a lesser extent, monero CRYPTOCAP:XMR ) soaring to prices NOBODY had on their bingo cards.
I haven't traded either of these dino coins since 2019 and 2020, respectively, but here we are. I actually love the renewed interest in privacy because it's true to crypto's cypherpunk origins and fights back against increasing surveillance.
But if you didn't ape Zcash early, like me, you got woefully sidelined, waiting for THIS MOMENT, a better entry point (potentially).
ZEC has retraced and printed a nice double-bottom pattern and now a potential cup & handle beneath a key S/R level. I think this long gets a lot less risky if you wait for a break above resistance + confirmation of S/R flip around that $443 level. Of course, you might get front run and it could just take off, so don't get too cute with it.
While ZEC fully decoupled from the rest of the crypto market during it's epic rally, this trade is probably at least somewhat dependent on BTC's cooperation and continued rally as bulls fight to defend 90k and push higher. IF instead we see a continuation of the downtrend, I think the odds of Zcash rallying are significantly lower.
Potential target levels: $528, $572, $644 and I would keep a tight SL given the shaky market conditions.
happy trades,
CD
XMRUSD - Privacy Rally Explodes +143% YTD
Executive Summary
KRAKEN:XMRUSD is trading at approximately $469.71 after an extraordinary year that has seen the privacy coin surge +143% YTD and +155% over the past 12 months. Monero recently hit a 52-week high of $497.75 and is now consolidating just below the critical $500 psychological resistance. The privacy narrative is on fire - Cardano's Midnight protocol launch, rising surveillance concerns, and the EU's 2027 privacy coin ban have created a perfect storm of demand. However, with RSI at 84 (overbought) and price near yearly highs, the question is: breakout to $1,000+ or pullback to consolidate gains?
BIAS: BULLISH - But Overbought Caution Required
The trend is undeniably bullish. The fundamentals support continued upside. But technicals warn of potential short-term pullback before the next leg higher.
Current Market Context - December 22, 2025
Monero's performance has been nothing short of spectacular:
Current Price: $469.71 (-0.25% on the day)
Day's Range: $453.05 - $483.69
52-Week Range: $183.02 - $497.75
52-Week High: $497.75 (hit last week)
Market Cap: $8.67 billion
24h Trading Volume: $171.27 million
Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN:
1 Week: +14.90%
1 Month: +40.05%
3 Months: +62.54%
6 Months: +49.34%
YTD: +143.09%
1 Year: +155.28%
This is the BEST performing major cryptocurrency of 2025. Monero has massively outperformed Bitcoin, Ethereum, and virtually every other top 20 coin.
THE PRIVACY NARRATIVE - Why XMR Is Exploding
1. EU Privacy Coin Ban (2027) - Bullish Paradox
The European Union confirmed plans to prohibit exchanges from listing privacy coins like Monero starting in 2027, citing anti-money laundering concerns. This follows increased scrutiny after high-profile hacks and ransomware attacks.
The Paradox:
Short-term BULLISH: Users accumulating XMR pre-ban
Creates urgency to acquire before restrictions
Validates Monero's core value proposition - if governments want to ban it, it must work
Long-term risk: Liquidity could dry up if major exchanges delist
Monero's fungibility remains key defense against regulatory sidelining
2. Midnight Protocol Sparks Privacy Rally (Dec 20, 2025)
Cardano's Midnight protocol launched NIGHT, a privacy token using zero-knowledge proofs. While not directly tied to Monero, the project reignited interest in privacy technology across the entire sector.
XMR rose 18% weekly alongside Zcash
Privacy tech is back in focus
Rising concerns over digital surveillance driving demand
Monero benefits from sector momentum
Competition from newer privacy solutions exists, but XMR remains the gold standard
3. Technical Breakout Gains Traction (Dec 22, 2025)
XMR surged past its 50-day EMA ($449)
Shielded transaction volume hitting ALL-TIME HIGHS
Analysts note bullish Wyckoff accumulation patterns
Rising open interest (+10% weekly) suggests leveraged bets on continued privacy demand
Added to CoinDesk 80 Index - reflecting growing market presence
4. Institutional Interest Growing
XMR added to CoinDesk 80 Index
Increased futures open interest
Growing market presence despite regulatory headwinds
Privacy as a feature becoming more valued, not less
Development Updates - Bullish Fundamentals
Monero developers have been extremely active in late 2025:
Security Patches (November 2025):
Ledger hardware wallet vulnerability patched (view-key export bug)
CLI v0.18.4.4 update addressed critical edge case
Strengthens trust in hardware wallet integrations
Spy Node Defense - "Fluorine Fermi" Upgrade (October 2025):
IP subnet filtering introduced to counter surveillance
Disrupts tactics used by firms like Chainalysis
Complements existing Dandelion++ protections
Directly reinforces untraceable transactions
RPC Fuzzing Milestone (November 2025):
Achieved 100% fuzzing coverage for RPC endpoints
Funded by MagicGrants
Reduces attack vectors for hackers
Hardens nodes against exploits
FCMP++ Scaling Prep (November 2025):
Full-Chain Membership Proofs alpha testing finalized
Beta stressnet expected Q1 2026
Could enable lighter nodes and better scalability
Aims to solidify Monero as most private Layer 1
2026 Roadmap - Major Upgrades Coming
FCMP++ Beta Stressnet (Q1 2026) - Scaling decisions finalized
Bulletproofs++ (2026) - 30% smaller transactions, 40% faster verification
Seraphis & Jamtis (2026) - Enhanced anonymity protocols
GetMonero.org Redesign (2026) - Improved user experience
Technical Structure Analysis
Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe
The chart shows a textbook bullish structure:
Ascending Channel Pattern:
Clear ascending channel established over past weeks
Higher highs and higher lows consistently forming
Channel support: Rising trendline from lows
Channel resistance: Parallel line at highs
Price currently in upper half of channel
Recent Price Action:
Price hit resistance zone near $490-$500
Pulled back and now consolidating
Currently in a smaller consolidation range ($455-$490)
Fibonacci retracement levels visible (0.5 and 0.6 levels)
Testing mid-channel support
Key Observations:
52-week high of $497.75 represents immediate resistance
$500 psychological level is THE level to watch
Support zone at $407-$410 area (channel bottom)
Strong uptrend intact - no signs of reversal yet
Consolidation after 52-week high is healthy, not bearish
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
$483-$490 - Immediate resistance (recent highs)
$497.75 - 52-week high
$500 - CRITICAL psychological resistance
$550 - Next major resistance if $500 breaks
$600 - Secondary target
$1,000 - Major psychological target (community expectation)
Support Levels:
$453-$460 - Immediate support (day's low area)
$449 - 50-day EMA (key moving average)
$430-$440 - Secondary support
$407-$410 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE (channel bottom)
$380-$390 - Deep support
$350 - Extended support if correction deepens
Moving Average Analysis
Price trading well above 50-day EMA ($449)
All major moving averages sloping upward
Golden cross patterns on multiple timeframes
MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks
Trend structure extremely bullish
RSI Analysis - OVERBOUGHT WARNING
RSI currently at 84 - OVERBOUGHT territory
This is the primary caution signal
Overbought RSI doesn't mean immediate reversal
In strong trends, RSI can stay overbought for extended periods
However, pullbacks from overbought levels are common
Watch for RSI divergence as potential warning sign
Volume Analysis
24h volume: $171.27 million
Volume supporting the uptrend
Shielded transaction volume at ALL-TIME HIGHS
Open interest rising (+10% weekly)
Healthy volume profile for continuation
Community Sentiment - Extremely Bullish
Bull Case - $1,000+ Targets
@olgerd_butko: "Monero screams insta teleportation above 1k. Privacy by default. No hype. Just real facts."
@soontzu: "Monero has only 0.2% of total crypto value. With XMR supply matching BTC's, $90k BTC implies massive XMR upside." - This comparison suggests theoretical $1,500+ XMR price if adoption parity occurs.
Bear Case - Regulatory Concerns
@Nicat_eth: "Monero edged lower as exchange delistings and privacy scrutiny intensify."
Bearish pressure stems from shrinking liquidity on some exchanges, though price action has defied this concern.
Regulatory Landscape - Double-Edged Sword
Delistings and Restrictions:
Kraken halted XMR for UK users (late 2024)
Kraken halted XMR for EEA users (November 2025)
Exodus wallet ended XMR support (August 2025)
EU ban coming in 2027
Why This Is Actually Bullish (Short-Term):
Validates Monero's privacy effectiveness
Creates urgency to accumulate before restrictions
Proves the technology works as intended
Decentralized exchanges and P2P trading remain available
Monero's fungibility makes it resistant to blacklisting
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $500
Trigger Conditions:
Daily close above $500 with volume
RSI holds above 70 without major divergence
Continued privacy narrative momentum
Bitcoin remains stable or bullish
Ascending channel breakout to upside
Price Targets if Bullish:
Target 1: $550 - First resistance above $500
Target 2: $600 - Secondary target
Target 3: $750 - Extended target
Moon Target: $1,000+ (community expectation)
Bullish Catalysts:
FCMP++ beta stressnet success (Q1 2026)
Continued privacy rally momentum
EU ban fears driving accumulation
Shielded transactions continuing to hit ATHs
Altcoin season rotation
Bulletproofs++ and Seraphis upgrades
BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Support
Trigger Conditions:
Rejection at $500 with bearish candle
RSI divergence forms (lower highs on RSI, higher highs on price)
Break below ascending channel support
Broader crypto market weakness
Major exchange delisting announcement
Price Targets if Bearish:
Target 1: $449 - 50-day EMA retest
Target 2: $430-$440 - Secondary support
Target 3: $407-$410 - Channel bottom / major support
Extended: $350-$380 if channel breaks
Bearish Risks:
RSI at 84 - overbought
Near 52-week high - profit-taking likely
Regulatory headlines could spook market
Thin liquidity on some exchanges
Broader crypto correction risk
NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation
Most likely short-term outcome:
Price consolidates between $450-$490
RSI cools off from overbought levels
Builds base for next leg higher
Healthy consolidation after massive rally
Watch for breakout direction
MY ASSESSMENT - BULLISH WITH CAUTION
The weight of evidence strongly favors bulls:
+143% YTD performance speaks for itself
Privacy narrative is the strongest it's been in years
Development activity is robust
Shielded transactions at ATH
Community sentiment extremely bullish
Ascending channel intact
All timeframes showing bullish structure
However, caution is warranted:
RSI at 84 is overbought
Near 52-week high - natural resistance
$500 is major psychological barrier
Some profit-taking expected
Regulatory headlines could cause volatility
My Stance: BULLISH - Buy Dips Strategy
I believe XMR will eventually break $500 and continue higher. The fundamentals and narrative support it. However, I would not chase at current levels with RSI at 84. Instead:
Wait for pullback to $449-$460 area for better entry
Or wait for confirmed breakout above $500 with volume
Avoid buying in the middle of the range
Trade Framework
Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $500
Entry Conditions:
Daily candle closes above $500
Volume exceeds recent average
RSI holds above 65 (not diverging)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $505-$515 on confirmed breakout
Stop Loss: $475 below recent support
Target 1: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:1)
Target 2: $600 (Risk-Reward ~1:2)
Target 3: $750 (Extended)
Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support
Entry Conditions:
Price pulls back to $449-$460 zone
RSI cools to 50-60 range
Bullish rejection candle at support
Ascending channel support holds
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $450-$460 on support test
Stop Loss: $420 below channel support
Target 1: $490-$500 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5)
Target 2: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:3)
Target 3: $600 (Extended)
Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy
Entry Conditions:
Price tests $407-$410 major support zone
Strong bounce with volume
RSI oversold or near oversold
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $410-$420 at channel bottom
Stop Loss: $385 below support zone
Target 1: $460-$470 (Risk-Reward ~1:2)
Target 2: $500 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5)
Target 3: $550+ (Extended)
Risk Management Guidelines
Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade
Respect overbought RSI - don't chase
Use hard stops - privacy coins can be volatile
Scale into positions rather than all-in entries
Take partial profits at each target (33% each)
Move stop to breakeven after first target
Monitor regulatory news closely
Be aware of lower liquidity on some exchanges
Invalidation Levels
Bullish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes below $407 (channel bottom)
Ascending channel breaks down
RSI divergence confirms with lower price
Major exchange delisting causes panic
Bitcoin crashes below $85,000
Bearish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes above $500 with volume
RSI makes new highs with price
Shielded transactions continue hitting ATHs
Privacy narrative accelerates further
Conclusion
KRAKEN:XMRUSD is the standout performer of 2025 with +143% YTD gains. The privacy narrative is firing on all cylinders - EU ban fears, Midnight protocol launch, surveillance concerns, and development upgrades have created a perfect storm for Monero.
The Numbers:
YTD Performance: +143.09%
1-Year Performance: +155.28%
52-Week High: $497.75
Current Price: $469.71
RSI: 84 (Overbought)
Market Cap: $8.67 billion
Key Levels:
$500 - CRITICAL resistance / breakout level
$497.75 - 52-week high
$449 - 50-day EMA support
$407-$410 - Major support zone (channel bottom)
The Setup:
Monero is consolidating just below its 52-week high after an incredible rally. The trend is bullish, fundamentals are strong, and the privacy narrative is the best it's been in years. However, RSI at 84 warns of potential short-term pullback.
Strategy:
Don't chase at current levels
Buy dips to $449-$460 support
Or buy confirmed breakout above $500
Targets: $550, $600, $750+
Stop below $420 or channel support
The path of least resistance is higher. Privacy is becoming more valuable, not less. Monero's technology is proven, development is active, and the community is committed. The EU ban paradoxically validates everything Monero stands for.
$1,000 XMR is not a meme - it's a matter of when, not if.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
(jasmy) JASMY "historical purchase lines"One more Jasmy post for the internet of trading view before the end of the year becomes final. Did I already post this image? This is quite sad to see there was no stability in the price of Jasmy this year. Not a single dollar withheld from the gobs of money that poured into Jasmy during the past year; Oh well.
These lines represent prices of Jasmy when I have made buys.
Sells in blue, Buys in Orange.
I never made any money from Jasmy, I never sold the bulk of my investment and only watched as the price fell to where it is now. Or I should say, I stopped watching seeing how there was no reversal in price after the price began to fall.
#DASHUSDT #4h (ByBit) Falling wedge breakout and retest [LONG]Digital Cash is pulling back to 50MA regained support where it seem likely to bounce towards 200MA resistance.
⚡️⚡️ #DASH/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (2.0X)
Amount: 5.3%
Current Price:
48.22
Entry Targets:
1) 48.13
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 66.44
Stop Targets:
1) 38.97
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:DASH BYBIT:DASHUSDT.P #4h #DigitalCash #Privacy dash.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +76.1%
Possible Loss= -38.1%
Estimated Duration= 1-2 weeks
Verge (XVG) 1M Multi-Year Compression + Privacy Meta TailwindsSummary:
Verge (XVG) has spent nearly 7 years forming a massive symmetrical triangle on the 1-Month timeframe, compressing between a long-term ascending trendline dating back to 2015 and a multi-cycle descending resistance from the 2017 blow-off top. With privacy coins regaining momentum over the past two months, XVG is approaching a structural apex that historically precedes large expansions in this asset class.
Price is currently sitting just above the long-term trendline and pressing into tightening monthly range highs, with both EMAs flattening — a sign of equilibrium before resolution.
📌 Technical Breakdown
1. Multi-Year Symmetrical Triangle
Ascending support holds strong since 2015, tested numerous times.
Descending macro resistance from 2017 ATH keeps price capped.
Price is now near the apex, where long-term compression typically breaks with force.
2. Monthly EMAs Converging
35 EMA and 205 EMA are flattening, reflecting equilibrium.
This usually occurs before a macro trend shift.
Reclaiming the 35 EMA on the 1M would be the first sign of trend strength.
3. Privacy Coin Narrative Strengthening
Over the past 2 months, several privacy-focused assets have shown strong relative performance amid:
Regulatory debates
Increasing interest in anonymity-preserving tech
Capital rotation into older privacy brands
XVG historically benefits from these narrative cycles.
4. Key Levels on the Chart
Immediate Resistance: 0.0080–0.0082
Macro Breakout Level: Descending trendline (currently just above price)
Structural Target if Broken: 0.026–0.03
Ultimate Macro Target: 0.264 (top of chart’s marked level)
Major Support: Long-term ascending trendline
📈 Bullish Scenario
If XVG breaks above the descending trendline on a monthly close, it would mark the first macro breakout in years.
This could align with ongoing privacy sector strength.
Upside targets:
0.0080 → first major test
0.026–0.03 → measured move from the triangle structure
0.264 → long-term supply zone (multi-cycle level)
Given the size of the pattern, a breakout move could be significant.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the ascending trendline could trigger a retest of mid-range supports or invalidate the long-term structure.
This would occur if price closes firmly below the rising 10-year trendline.
📊 Final Takeaway
XVG is entering the most important point of its multi-year consolidation — the apex of a massive symmetrical triangle.
With privacy coins seeing renewed attention, XVG is positioned at a potentially explosive point on the chart.
All eyes should be on the monthly close as price tightens into long-term resistance with narrative momentum behind it.
XMR - Institutional Analysis: Channel Support Buy Zone | Dec 7XMRUSD - The Privacy Resistance: How Regulatory War Created The Perfect Parallel Channel Setup
by officialjackofalltrades
🟡 CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH December 7, 2025
Institutional Technical Analysis | Whale Signals Integrated
📈 Executive Summary - The Setup
Current Price: $372.78 | December 7, 2025
Monero is trading at a critical inflection point inside a well-defined parallel channel that has dictated price action for the past 90 days. After a spectacular +23% rally to $420 in the first week of December, XMR has pulled back to test lower channel support at $370-380 exactly where technical analysis suggests the next major move will be decided.
The Technical Setup:
Pattern: Ascending parallel channel (bullish structure)
Current Position: Lower channel support ($370-380)
Resistance: Upper channel boundary ($420-450)
Key Decision Level: $360 (below = channel break, above = bounce continuation)
The Fundamental Backdrop:
While retail focuses on regulatory FUD from 2024 delistings (Binance, Kraken, OKX), they're missing three critical developments:
XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash on November 29, 2025
Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced network surveillance defenses on October 10
Early December saw 23% price surge despite broader crypto market liquidations
The Trade: Long from $360-380, target $420-480, stop $355 below ..
Monero's price on December 7, 2025, is fluctuating approximately between $390 and $400, with some reports indicating a notable 23% increase in the first week, pushing its average trading price to $406 and briefly reaching a short-run high of $420 .
What This Means:
The $420 short-run high demonstrates XMR's technical strength even as it tests the upper boundary of the channel. The current pullback to $372 is textbook technical behavior—price respecting the parallel structure.
Current Technical Position:
Support Levels (Where buyers defend):
$370-$380: Lower parallel channel + 50-day MA convergence (CURRENT LEVEL)
$360-$365: Channel absolute floor + psychological support
$320-$340: Major support cluster from Aug-Nov accumulation
$280-$300: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability)
Resistance Levels (Where sellers appear)
$400-$420: Recent high + upper channel boundary
$435-$450: Channel breakout zone + 2025 YTD high
$480-$500: Psychological resistance + near ATH
$517.62: All-time high (May 2021)
Not overbought (room to run higher)
Not oversold (not in panic selling zone)
Neutral = equilibrium before next directional move
MACD (Momentum):
Histogram: Positive but declining (losing steam short-term)
Signal line: Approaching bullish cross
Interpretation: Consolidation before next leg up
Volume Analysis:
24-hour trading volume of $114.56M - this is concerning. Volume has been declining since the December 3 peak, indicating:
Thin liquidity from exchange delistings
Lower participation = higher volatility potential
Breakouts need VOLUME confirmation
🔎 Fundamental Analysis - The Regulatory War Creates Opportunity
While technical analysis shows the "what" and "when," fundamentals explain the "why." Here's what's REALLY happening with Monero:
CATALYST #1: The Exchange Delisting Paradox
The Bearish Narrative (What retail sees):
Binance delisted XMR February 2024
OKX delisted XMR January 2024
Kraken delisted XMR in EEA October 2024
"Privacy coins are dying!"
The Reality (What institutions know):
Monero founder Riccardo Spagni said: "Kraken delisting Monero in Europe just goes to prove what we already know: Chainalysis et al. simply can't squeeze enough information out of Monero's privacy to be meaningful, otherwise regulators would want Monero to stay listed as a honeypot".
Read that again. The delistings PROVE Monero's privacy works.
If regulators could track Monero, they'd WANT it listed to monitor users. The fact they're forcing delistings means they can't break the privacy.
Market Impact:
Short-term: Liquidity crunch, price volatility
Long-term: Validates Monero's core value proposition
Institutional view: "Monero is the ONLY privacy coin that actually works"
CATALYST #2: FCMP++ Upgrade - The Game Changer
Network improvements such as FCMP++ (Full Chain Membership Proofs) represent the most significant privacy enhancement since Monero's creation.
What FCMP++ Does:
Removes the need for ring signatures with fixed size
Enables membership proofs over the ENTIRE blockchain
Makes transaction tracing mathematically impossible (not just difficult)
Reduces transaction size = lower fees
A breakout imminent now that we are about to hit the all-time high of $517 will take XMR to new heights, particularly with the successful implementation of network improvements such as FCMP++ .
Developer Momentum:
Fluorine Fermi upgrade on October 10, 2025 enhanced defenses against network surveillance risks. Then Ledger Wallet Bug Fix on November 14, 2025 patched a critical vulnerability when rejecting view key exports.
Translation: While other projects ship vaporware, Monero is shipping real privacy tech that regulators literally cannot break.
CATALYST #3: Privacy Demand at All-Time High
As of December 7, 2025, Monero (XMR) continues to be a focal point in the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to its unwavering commitment to privacy in an increasingly regulated digital landscape.
The irony? Regulatory crackdowns INCREASE demand for privacy.
Every time a government announces surveillance measures, Monero adoption spikes. Every time an exchange delists XMR, peer-to-peer volume increases.
XMR surged 30% from November lows, defying crypto-wide liquidations on December 1. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins crashed with $637M in liquidations, Monero rallied.
Why? Because in times of uncertainty, people want privacy.
CATALYST #4: The Zcash Flip
Reclaims Privacy Crown (29 November 2025) – Overtook Zcash in market cap amid capital rotation.
This is MASSIVE. Zcash (ZEC) was Monero's main competitor for years. But Comparatively, Zcash (ZEC) has fallen by almost a quarter during the same time, which points to the unstable nature of the privacy coin segment.
Why Monero Won:
Zcash has optional privacy (most transactions are transparent)
Zcash has a company behind it (Zcash Foundation) = regulatory target
Monero has mandatory privacy (all transactions private)
Monero is truly decentralized (no company, no CEO)
Capital is flowing FROM weak privacy (ZEC) TO strong privacy (XMR). This trend is accelerating.
⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case
I'm bullish on the technical setup, but let's address the others in the room:
RISK #1: Mining Centralization (Qubic Attack)
Qubic grabbed 20% of all blocks in 24h during mining marathon, while DDoS attacks hit network. Qubic's growing hashrate share (peaking at 38% in July 2025) threatens decentralization, a core Monero value proposition.
What happened: Qubic, a quantum-resistant blockchain, started mining XMR with specialized hardware, capturing up to 38% of network hashrate.
Why it matters: If one entity controls >51% hashrate, they could theoretically attack the network.
Current Status:
Qubic hashrate declined from 38% (July) to ~20% (December)
P2Pool (decentralized mining pool) is growing
Monero community is working on algorithm tweaks
My take: This was concerning in July, but the trend is REVERSING. Hashrate is becoming more distributed again.
RISK #2: Thin Liquidity = High Volatility
24-hour trading volume of $114.56M is low compared to XMR's $7.21B market cap.
Volume-to-Market Cap Ratio: 1.6% (very low)
Bitcoin: ~5-8%
Ethereum: ~4-6%
Monero: ~1.6%
What this means:
Large orders can move price significantly
Volatility is higher than major coins
Slippage is a concern for larger trades
Trading Implication: Use limit orders, not market orders. Scale in/out slowly.
RISK #3: Regulatory Uncertainty
Governments and financial regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies that allow users to hide their transaction details, fearing that they could be used for illicit activities like money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing.
Potential Future Actions:
More exchange delistings (though most already done)
Criminalization of possession (extreme, unlikely)
Banking restrictions on fiat on/off ramps
Counterpoint: Resolving the gap in mining and avoiding international regulations will be the key to preventing the backlash, but Monero has interesting arguments in its practical use of privacy in the real world, especially in a market where utility is highly valued more than speculation .
🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Institutional-Grade Execution
🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY XMRUSD
Entry Zone: $360-$380 (SCALE IN - We're at the PERFECT zone RIGHT NOW)
Position Sizing (Conservative Institutional Approach):
Allocate 4-6% of portfolio (this is a MEDIUM conviction trade due to liquidity risk)
Scale in strategy:
30% at $375-380 (CURRENT - enter NOW if not in)
$365-370 (if we get one more dip to channel support)
$360-365 (if we hit absolute channel floor)
Stop Loss: $355
Below $355 = parallel channel broken on daily close
Below this = technical structure invalidated
Max loss: 6-8% from average entry
Take Profit Targets (Institutional Scale-Out Strategy):
TP1: $420-$435
Upper parallel channel resistance retest
December 2-3 peak at $420 retest
Action: move stop to $370 (breakeven)
TP2: $450-$480 (Probability: 50%)
Channel breakout + FCMP++ upgrade hype builds
Monero forecast between $382.54 and $456.36 next year
Action: move stop to $420 (lock gains)
All-time high $517.62 retest
Full bull market confirmation
Provided that buyers continue their growth, XMR is one of the best cryptos to consider as the new bull run might start with the daily close higher than $327
Entry Confirmation Checklist (Use This Before Entering):
✅ Price holding above $360 (channel support intact)
✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ XMR on daily candle)
✅ RSI crosses above 55 (momentum shift confirmed)
✅ MACD bullish cross on H4 timeframe
✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support)
✅ No surprise negative regulatory news (check daily)
WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE DEPLOYING FULL POSITION
Weekly Monitoring Requirements:
CRITICAL - Check EVERY WEEK:
Hashrate distribution: If Qubic >40% again, reduce position 50%
Exchange news: Any re-listings = bullish, add to position
Developer activity: Check Monero GitHub for FCMP++ progress
Regulatory news: New delistings = short-term bearish, long-term bullish
Bitcoin correlation: If BTC <$90K, reduce XMR position 30-50%
Volume trends: If 24h volume <$80M consistently, reduce position
5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT IMMEDIATELY):
❌ Daily close below $355 = EXIT ALL (channel broken)
❌ Qubic hashrate >51% sustained = EXIT ALL (security risk)
❌ Major security vulnerability discovered = EXIT ALL
❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = EXIT 50%, trail rest tight
❌ Volume dries up below $50M/24h = EXIT 50% (liquidity crisis)
📊 Scenario Analysis - What Happens Next
Base Case: Channel Bounce to $420-450
What happens:
XMR holds $370 support ✓
Bounces along lower channel to retest $420 resistance
Volume increases modestly
FCMP++ development continues
Breaks $435, targets $450-480
Timeline: 2-4 weeks
Expected Return: +17-29%
Catalysts: Technical bounce, no new negative news
Bull Case (2 Channel Breakout to $500+
What happens:
XMR breaks above $450 with VOLUME
XMR forecasted to reach $456.36 by January 1, 2026
FCMP++ release creates buzz
Privacy narrative strengthens
Targets ATH $517
Timeline: 4-8 weeks
Expected Return: +34-40%
Catalysts: FCMP++ launch, major adoption news, BTC >$110K
Bear Case (15% Probability): Channel Break to $320-340
What happens:
XMR breaks below $360 on volume
Tests major support at $320-340
Regulatory FUD intensifies
Bitcoin corrects below $95K
Thin liquidity amplifies drop
Timeline: 1-2 weeks
Expected Return: -8 to -14%
Catalysts: Surprise delisting, BTC crash, Qubic attack
Probability-Weighted Expected Return:
🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This Setup Works
Let me synthesize everything into a clear thesis:
The Technical Case:
✅ Parallel channel: 8 successful tests, currently at lower support
✅ +23% surge in first week of December to $420
✅ Overtook Zcash in market cap November 29
✅ Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced security October 10
✅ Privacy demand at all-time high in regulated landscape
✅ Delistings prove Monero's privacy actually works
The Risk Case:
⚠️ Thin liquidity (<$115M daily volume)
⚠️ Qubic mining centralization (peaked 38% hashrate)
⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty ongoing
⚠️ Exchange access limited (most CEXs delisted)
The Trade:
Entry: $360-380 (we're at $372 NOW)
Stop: $355 (-5% max loss)
Target : $380-400
IF YOU'RE BEARISH:
Wait for:
Daily close below $360 (channel break confirmed)
Then short from $355-360 with tight stop at $380
Target $320-340 support retest
Cover at $320, reassess
IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL:
Split the Difference:
Enter only at $365-370 (better risk/reward)
Take profits aggressively
This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" approach
💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth
Here's what I know for certain on December 7, 2025:
✅_ContinueYour parallel channel analysis is PERFECT - XMR is respecting the structure exactly
✅ +23% rally to $420 in December's first week proves momentum
✅ XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash - capital rotation happening
✅ Privacy demand at all-time high - fundamental bid exists
✅ Delistings prove Monero's tech works - validates thesis
✅ We're at lower channel support ($370) - mathematically optimal entry
Will Bitcoin hold $100K or crash?
Will Qubic attack Monero's hashrate again?
Will more exchanges delist (though most already have)?
Drop a 🟠 if you're entering XMR at $360-380 channel support.
Drop a 📊 if this parallel channel analysis helped you.
Drop a 🔒 if you believe in privacy's future.
Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $450+ in Q1 2026.
ZEC - From Exhaustion to Expansion!!!📉ZEC spent days trapped in a clear bearish phase on the left side of the chart, forming lower lows and lower highs. But everything changed once price tapped the major swing low, where buyers stepped in aggressively.
📈Since then, ZEC has been respecting a new rising channel , shifting the market structure from bearish to bullish. As long as price remains inside this channel, the bulls remain in control.
We will be looking for longs around the intersection of:
- the lower blue trendline, and
- the most recent higher-low zone
🏹This is where buyers have consistently reacted before, and where the next bullish impulse could start.
If this structure holds, ZEC may push toward the upper boundary of the channel once again.
Do you think ZEC is gearing up for another leg up? Let me know below 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ZEC Update - My thoughts heading into Nov 29 2025 Weekend ZEC is grinding lower with momentum still favoring sellers. The structure is cleanly pointing toward the 300 zone, which lines up as the next high conviction support.
Until price tags that level, ZEC likely keeps lagging and chopping in a controlled bleed. A reaction or base is most probable only once that 300 level is tested, where a stronger bounce could finally develop.
#ZECUSDT #4h (ByBit) Ascending channel on resistance [SHORT]Zcash just printed a shooting star and entered overbought territory again.
It seems likely to finally retrace down towards 50MA support, short-term.
⚡️⚡️ #ZEC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (3.0X)
Amount: 4.4%
Current Price:
684.73
Entry Targets:
1) 694.97
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 484.39
Stop Targets:
1) 800.52
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:ZEC BYBIT:ZECUSDT.P #4h #Privacy #ZK z.cash
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +90.9%
Possible Loss= -45.6%
Estimated Gaintime= 1 week
ZK - Short-Term Setup, Long-Term Vision!📈 ZK has recently shown strong momentum but is now entering a short-term correction phase after facing resistance around the blue zone.
In the immediate term, I’ll be looking for short-term long opportunities near the red structure zone, which aligns with a strong support area and potential buyer interest.
🏹From a broader perspective, the real bullish confirmation will come once price breaks and holds above the blue resistance zone. That’s where long-term buyers are expected to step in, paving the way for a sustained bullish trend.
⚔️For now, short-term traders can play the bounce, while long-term investors should keep an eye on that breakout for a possible trend shift.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
$Rose to $.13? Privacy trendI've been watching the chart of Oasis for years. The privacy space has always interested me, and while I missed the Zcash run, it's clear that privacy coins are a big trend right now.
Zcash ran, Dash ran, Bat is trying to make a run, and now I think it's rose's time to run.
It's looking like one of the most bullish charts at the moment and could have gains that are close to what Zcash did.
If you look at Heikin ashi candles, high time frames are starting to turn bullish 1D, 3D, 4D, etc. Maybe as soon as next week we can start to see a large move?
Let's see. If we do see a run, I think it can make it all the way up to $.135.
ZEC - Roadmap to $500!💪Zcash has been on fire lately, outperforming over 90% of altcoins in the market. After months of accumulation, the bulls have finally taken control, driving ZEC into a strong impulsive rally that shows no signs of exhaustion yet.
📈 From a technical perspective , ZEC is trading within a well-defined rising channel, maintaining a clean bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakout above the previous all-time high around $372 confirms strong bullish momentum.
🏹As long as the channel’s lower boundary continues to act as dynamic support, the next logical target for the bulls sits around the $500 round number, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel, a major confluence zone.
In the short term, a minor pullback toward the $370–$400 region wouldn’t be surprising and could offer new long opportunities before the next bullish leg kicks in.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
#ZECUSDT #1D (ByBit) Rising wedge near breakdownZcash had a great bull run but looks exhausted right now on daily TF.
It's printing a bearish divergence between price and volume + RSI, a retracement seems likely.
⚡️⚡️ #ZEC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Bitget Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (3.0X)
Amount: 3.9%
Current Price:
353.99
Entry Zone:
355.71 - 392.39
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 298.48
2) 241.58
3) 184.67
Stop Targets:
1) 437.28
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:ZEC BYBIT:ZECUSDT.P #1D #Zcash #Privacy z.cash
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +60.6% | +106.2% | +151.9%
Possible Loss= -50.7%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 months
DASH – Weekly Downside Outlook📉 After getting rejected near the December 2024 high at $72, CRYPTO:DASHUSD triggered a weekly reversal, shifting the broader structure bearish.
🔻 If momentum holds, price could grind lower over the next 6 months, with downside targets pointing toward $20.
#ElliottWave #PrivacyCoins #Altcoins
TradeCityPro | ZEC: Bullish Structure Holding Strong👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
In this analysis, I want to review the ZEC coin for you — one of the Privacy and Layer 1 projects, ranked 28th on CoinMarketCap with a market cap of $4.42 billion.
⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe
This coin has a bullish trend on the 4-hour timeframe and, after its upward movement, has now entered a corrective phase.
🔍 This correction has reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the previous wave, and the price has now returned to the 292.20 zone, having already reacted to it once.
✔️ Breaking the 292.2 level could mark the beginning of the next bullish wave. From a momentum standpoint, the bullish trend is very strong, and with the breakout of 292.2, the momentum will likely continue.
⚡️ Currently, the volume favors buyers, and as the price approaches the 292.2 zone, buying volume is increasing, which raises the probability of breaking this resistance.
💥 The break of level 70 and the RSI entering Overbuy are strong momentum triggers for a long position.
📊 For a short position on this coin, I’ll wait until a bearish structure forms. The current structure is very bullish, so I’d rather open short positions on other coins.
⭐ We’ll get the confirmation of a bearish reversal only after the price stabilizes below 190.87.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
#SXTUSDT #1D (Binance Futures) Descending trendline break retestSpace and Time (SXT) pulled back to 50MA daily support, looks ready for mid-term recovery after those two dragonfly dojis in a row.
⚡️⚡️ #SXT/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Binance Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (2.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Entry Targets:
1) 0.08264
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 0.15684
Stop Targets:
1) 0.05787
Published By: @Zblaba
NYSE:SXT BINANCE:SXTUSDT.P #1D #SpaceAndTime #ZK #AI #DPoS spaceandtime.io
Risk/Reward= 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +179.6%
Possible Loss= -59.9%
Estimated Gaintime= 1 month
XMR still in long term uptrend against DASH and ZECEven though XMR has shown short-term weakness against some coins in the privacy vertical they still have a way to go before they can challenge XMR's long-established upward channel against them.
I expect oscillation along the channel and would be surprised if they venture into the blue bands. Provided no fundamental change takes place any venture into the blue bands above or below should present a trading opportunity.






















