Page 6 | Probabilities — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Closely guarded secret revealed!I'm joking of course. :)) But seriously, have a look at this indicator I'm showing. As I mention in the video it's not all about indicators. It is also about selecting the right indicator for the instrument one is trading. Practice and understanding of how you can work them together to estimate probabilities is most important.

09:39

Lesson on trading, TA and Risk G'day Cobbers and Shobbers, How are we this morning, did many of you manage to make so profit yesterday? I will start with a quick talk about Edges and trading strategy and how to be profitable from your charts. First if you take a look at the chart linked below from yesterday you will notice I flipped outlooks as the day progressed, I also traded on these calls, some I got stopped out on at small losses, a few I made breakeven or small profit after fees, the last one I made a massive profit on, none of those trades were any better than the other. Seriously! You have to look at your trades in the same way a Casino runs, lets look at the Roulette table for example on a black/red bet, now the "Edge" the Casino has in this situation is the 0 00 on the wheel, which gives the player a 47% chance of winning , the house at 47% plus the edge (Around 6%%) This edge over 10 bets this edge won't net the Casino much or anything at all but over millions of games, you can see the potential for profit. Trading is the same, once you have a strategy and find an edge, weigh up the risk to reward ratio and it fits your plan, you trade it, win or lose it does not matter, because if you have a good solid strategy and solid risk and money management plan in place, the profit will come. Taking the emotion out of trading is the first thing you need to do to last, this also relates to doing Technical Analysis. To be good at TA, you need to do more than just study and draw lines, you need to take out any preconceived Bias you have towards the market, be fluid and not stubborn. Big Egos and know it alls always fail, they are unable to admit when they are wrong and end up missing subconsciously the triggers and patterns that are going against their analysis, they filter out all the noise that is not in their favor and look for that which confirms their biases. Just remember The Market can do anything. you can do your research, analyze and be confident in your trade to go in a certain direction but you can not expect it to, which is why we trade on probabilities, when you see an opportunity ( set by your strategy / Edge) you need to factor in all the data in front of you, decide if it fits your R/R ratio, find an entry and set an exit and stick to it, if you miss the entry then let it go and wait for the next opportunity, it may come back and you will get another chance. Know your exit (look for resistance/support) levels, factor these in with your strategy (be it breakouts or simple MA crosses) before you set you buys/sells and take profits along the way. Risk You will hear people talking about Risk all the time and it seems pretty simple but it isn't. A simple explanation can be setting Stops and not risking more than a percentage of your account equity but it is more than that and it also part of what makes markets move. Risk = Pain. Pain is what causes big runs, first goes the stop losses in a big move, then the overleveraged and then those whose pain threshold is pushed beyond the limits, you know this to be true, its why you end up selling off your position at the bottom and then it magically moves up again. This is why you don't risk more than you are willing to lose, and you really got to believe it or this pain will cause you to sell at the bottom, good traders don't deal with this pain because they trade within Risk, they trade without emotion, knowing that a loss matters not, they are a part of trading, your strategy, if followed properly will profit over time. Many fail because they don't follow their strategy, they over-leverage, the place position sizes way to large and small moves against there position causes pain, pain causes loss of confidence. You can see where I'm going with this. G'day Thanks for dropping by, hopefully, you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.

Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270 Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270 Risk: - 44 pips Profit: +46 pips Profit/ Risck Ratio: +104,5% Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 93,3% Total Gain: +451pips

BTC _ USD 4hr I posted BTC ideia 11days ago whit this "Good entry its SMA 200 (6.2k - 6.5k) " "short and mid Targets (resistances) T1 - 8.5k T2 - 10k T3 - 11k T4 - 12.7k " Ok rick, but what happened? BTC made a good reversal from that point, its already 80% up from that level and hit target 1,2,3! now we are waiting to another decision, we are trying to break BIG downtrend line (red) its a fucking important zone, we still in a rising wedge and its a bear formation! so we are charting probablies scenarios. 1- Breakdown rising wedge and back to 8.5k level (first target) 2- Breakup RED line and show us a strong move to break this rising wedge ( its hard to breakup rising wedge but can happen) 3- BTC ignore this rising wedge formation and go sideways consolidating around 10k-11k 4- fail to breakup RED line form a double or triple top then fall to 8.5k area So if u are following me and my advice and u bought BTC arround 6.5k area u are looking to lock some profit in this run, I recommend u wait for next BTC decision then lock some profits to buy cheaper. 11.3k its a good area to lock profit if we don't breakup if u are looking to buy BTC I recommend to wait next move because its most easy to breakdown this rising wedge and back to 8.5k area (old resistance , new support)

USDCAD HARMONIC MOVE/ 0.786 1/1.414 PRE-FOMC ANALYSIS Not a fundamental analysis trader but possible rising oil prices wil push USDCAD eventually but the possible rate hike wil first spike things up a little if that make any sense?

Riding the bullish momentum of the USDCAD - daytrade/intraday Throughout this entire year, USDCAD has been rallying which can confirmed on the larger timeframes such as monthly, weekly and daily. I'm basing this trade based off of that momentum and on a simple trend-contination setup. As you can see, price has been consolidating this past week and along with all the momentum n volume today coming because of greece, Im expecting this to go higher with a target of around 1.2800 - around 80 pip profit

ENIP Good Reward to Risk Trade Bullish Taking a recent swing low and swing high, the risk reward tool can measure potential profit to risk when stopped out and give the reward to risk ratio. Moving the mouse over the shaded area, here we see we can potentially make 375% while risking only 32.14% or in other words the ratio is 11.67, which is excellent. Any time one can use this tool to find a trade that has a ratio of 3 or more, that is great. It makes the odds so that effectively one could take every trade and have it be a coin toss winning half the time for 3x the bet and losing half the time for all the bet, and not care about it because the trades would breakeven with no loss all together. So even the slightest edge where it be due dilligence or trading system or indicator to make those trades even slightly better than a coin toss, then a profit is made. During backtesting trading techniques, if something is found that works 60-70% of the time that's great. Use it with trade setups that are reward to risk ratio over 3. That is a profitable way to make money trading. Whatever trading system is used it doesn't have to be super-perfect, complex, fancy, or better than anyone else, just "good enough" is fine.