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EURNZD: sellers remain in control - upside still rejectedEURNZD confirmed weakness above resistance once again. Breakout attempt failed, price returned below supply and trend line. Every bullish push is absorbed, indicating sellers still dominate. H4 structure stays bearish: failed breakout followed by BOS down, weak buyer on retest. FVG above and supply zone remain untouched, acting as liquidity cap. Lack of momentum up and return into range support continuation toward 2.0050 and then 1.9750, where previous accumulation and liquidity cluster sit. Plan: look for shorts on pullback into FVG with weak orderflow, targets 2.0050 and 1.9750. Bullish scenario only above 2.0230 with strong momentum and follow-through — then buy pullback toward 2.0400. When market teases breakout but every rally dies instantly — trend continuation is still in play. Confirmation first, assumptions later.
Short
by InvestWorld_777
XAUUSD Gold testing support, correction possibleAfter a strong rally, gold entered a correction phase. Price broke the ascending channel and now trades around 4030–4050. The chart structure suggests a potential retest near 4070–4090 before continuation to 3960 (Target 1) and 3856 (Target 2). CCI confirms weak buying momentum and volume profile shows high liquidity zones above current price — favoring a pullback. Investors are taking profits after gold’s rally amid softer Fed outlook and possible dollar rebound. While long-term fundamentals stay bullish, short-term correction looks likely. Sell setup from 4070–4090 zone with targets 3960 and 3856, stop 4110. Valid while price remains below 4110.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by InvestWorld_777
2
Gold tests below $4,300 amid strengthening USD October 21Joint statement Ukraine – EU – Trump – Europe: => Call for an immediate ceasefire and start peace negotiations. => The market reacts risk-on, money flows out of gold => gold drops sharply. echnical analysis: H1 is in the process of correction after continuously setting the ATH peak, gradually forming a head and shoulders pattern, buyers right at the 4178-4180 area are quite clear. BUY GOLD : 4180 - 4178 SL: 4172 TP: 50 - 200 - 400PIPS SELL GOLD : 4320 - 4322 SL: 4330 TP: 50 - 200 - 400PIPS Trade according to price trends, do not trade predictions, manage and be responsible for your account !
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FXWARRIOR_TRADING
Why Win Rate Lies: The Metric That Keeps Traders BrokeWhy Win Rate Lies (and What to Measure Instead) Everyone loves a high win rate. Every newbie dreams of having a 75%+ success rate. But here’s the trap: your win rate only tells you how often you’re right, not how much you make when you are. Even worse, focusing on win rate puts you on the wrong path: trying to predict outcomes instead of focusing on what really matters: being profitable. Let’s dissect this a bit. As a quantitative trader, I know I can design hundreds of systems with a 75% win rate. It’s simple: take frequent, small profits and place wide stop losses. Voilà, your win rate looks great on paper. The problem? Those small wins can’t save you when that one big loss hits. The math doesn’t forgive. Building a truly profitable system is much harder, because you need to balance the trade-off between win rate and risk/reward. A system that wins often but loses big doesn’t have an edge, it just has good marketing. See the futility in chasing high win rates? The real path is focusing on expectancy. Expectancy not only accounts for win rate but also includes your average win and average loss, capturing the critical balance between how often you’re right and how much you gain or lose when you are. Chasing a high win rate is like designing a race car and spending all your money on the engine. It’ll hit top speed on the straights (your wins), but without investing in decent brakes, you won’t look so great when the first corner arrives.
NASDAQ:RKLBEducation
by CF_444
2
The 7 Killers That Make You Lose Money in TradingTrading isn’t easy; in fact, it’s one of the most complicated ways to make money in the financial world. I know that’s not what the mainstream narrative tells you. The same narrative that warns “more than 90% of traders lose money” also sells the illusion that you’ll be part of the 10% who don’t, because deep down, we all think we’re different, smarter, faster, more capable than the crowd. But if you strip away emotion and bias and read that statistic correctly, it’s a harsh truth: you have less than a 10% probability of long-term success. That’s not pessimism; that’s probability. And probability doesn’t lie. Every day, it quietly proves that most “special” traders end up broke, not because markets are unfair, but because they misread the numbers that could have saved them. After more than 20 years in this game, I’ve noticed one thing every losing trader has in common: they ignore what’s painfully obvious. Trading is numbers in an uncertain world. Numbers mean math. Put math in an uncertain environment, and the only way to handle it is through probability. Yet most traders fight this reality, chasing signals, news, or “gut feelings” instead of learning how probability actually runs the game. After working with hundreds of losing traders, I found that this blindness leads to seven recurring mistakes: the same ones that keep the losing rate stuck above 90%. 1. Mistake: Trying to Predict Instead of Projecting The moment you believe you need to know where the market’s going, you’ve already lost your edge. By definition, the future is uncertain; anything can happen. No system or algorithm can change that. The game changes when you stop trying to predict what the market will do and start projecting how your account will behave under uncertainty. It’s not about guessing direction; it’s about managing outcomes. Probability reminds us that uncertainty isn’t our enemy, it’s our playing field. Without it, there would be no opportunity. Don’t focus on prediction; learn to handle what the market does and control its impact on your account value. 📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.” 2. Mistake: Judging Success Trade by Trade If you judge your system by a single trade, you’re missing the point. Trading isn’t a sprint; it’s a marathon. Your edge doesn’t live in one trade, it appears in the average of many. Focusing on each result drags you into an emotional roller coaster, the highs of winning and the lows of losing. In reality, you’re not reacting to truth; you’re reacting to variance, and variance loves to mislead. The real measure of your system (your expectancy) doesn’t care about your last trade. It only reveals itself after enough repetitions, as the law of large numbers smooths out noise and exposes your true average performance. If you want peace of mind, stop zooming in on the moment. Zoom out and focus on the mean, the expected value of your account. That’s the mindset that turns emotions into data and chaos into clarity. 📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “Spying on Your Trading Future.” 3. Mistake: Not Accepting Losses as Part of the Process I’ve seen it countless times: new traders obsessed with their win rate. Almost every candidate I’ve mentored asks the same question before hiring me: “What’s your winning rate?” And I get it. In a world obsessed with prediction, it feels natural to think accuracy equals success. But that’s where I correct them: we’re not here to predict; we’re here to make money. Instead of asking how often a trader is right, ask, “How much money does he keep after losses?” That’s the question that shifts focus from ego to expectancy, from being right to being profitable. 📖 Referenced posts: “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability”. 4. Mistake: Misjudging Probability as Too Complicated Many traders avoid thinking in probabilities because they believe it’s too mathematical. They prefer indicators because they seem easier and more visible. I get it, not everyone loves math. But in trading, probability isn’t complex theory; it’s practical logic. Think about predicting the weather. When you see a small gray cloud, you don’t say, “It will rain.” You say, “It might rain.” That’s probabilistic thinking: assigning likelihood instead of claiming certainty. Trading works the same way. Every trade is its own weather forecast. You can’t predict what will happen, but you can estimate what’s likely and prepare for both outcomes. Once you see probability as a decision framework, you stop reacting emotionally and start thinking strategically. 📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability.” 5. Mistake: Overleveraging Your Edge Even with a profitable system, betting too big turns strategy into suicide. Leverage doesn’t just multiply gains; it magnifies mistakes. I’ve seen many good traders destroy solid systems because they couldn’t stay anchored to steady, safe growth. They wanted to accelerate the curve. But here’s the truth: every time you increase position size, you also increase your risk of ruin exponentially. Great traders know success isn’t about how fast you can grow, but how long you can keep growing. It’s even worse for traders who don’t know if they have an edge at all. Leverage in the wrong hands is like a driver who thinks that because he can handle a Tesla, he can drive an F1 car. He’s not compounding; he’s just going to hit the wall faster. And the market knows that. That’s why those aggressive leverage offers exist, they want your money fast. Knowing how to play the long game is the real alpha. 📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Risk Management: The Engine of Expectancy” (upcoming). 6. Mistake: Misunderstanding Variance and Calling It Bad Luck When things go wrong, most traders think they’re bad traders, or they blame their system and rush to replace it. Or worse, they believe the markets are rigged. In reality, they just don’t understand variance. Variance is when you take three losses in a row despite perfect setups. It’s not betrayal or bad luck; it’s randomness doing its job. Every system has a natural distribution of wins and losses, and they’ll always appear randomly. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll lose. No rule or model can predict exactly when. That’s not broken; that’s just markets being markets. Neither streak defines your edge, they’re both part of the math. That’s why only expectancy can tell you if you have an edge or just luck. When traders don’t understand variance, they take it personally. A losing streak feels like punishment; a winning streak feels like mastery. Both are illusions. Expectancy, the expected value of your account, doesn’t care about your feelings. It only reveals your edge over a large enough sample, when randomness smooths out and the real average emerges. Accept variance as part of the process and trading becomes calmer, simpler, and much more rational. 📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Sharpening Your Trading Focus.” 7. Mistake: Replacing Numbers and Logic with Dopamine and Emotion One of the hardest habits to break in new traders is their need for dopamine. Many don’t come to the market to trade; they come to feel something. They treat trading like entertainment — constant stimulation, adrenaline, and fast feedback. A typical beginner believes trading means dozens of short-term trades per day, with stops and targets hit constantly, like scrolling through TikTok. Each trade becomes another “like,” another hit of excitement. I often tell my students, “If you’re here for entertainment, go to the cinema, or better yet, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll leave happier.” Trading isn’t a game of dopamine; it’s a game of data and probabilities. The more you chase emotional highs, the further you drift from logic and expectancy. When you trade emotions instead of numbers, you stop trading your system and start trading your mood. 📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.” Bonus: Trusting the Wrong Sources Here’s an uncomfortable question: if 90% of traders lose money, what are the odds that most trading education actually works? If we apply probability to information itself, we’d infer that 90% of the “trading wisdom” online is more likely to produce losses than profits. In other words, there’s a 90% chance your guru is wrong. And that’s before considering how many truly successful traders never share what really works. So ask yourself: if most people fail, does it make sense to follow what most people do? There’s no formal proof for this, but after two decades in the game, I’ve seen the pattern repeat endlessly. The crowd follows the same noisy ideas... and the crowd loses. It may not be a comfortable truth, but sometimes the truth that shocks you is the one that sets you free. Final Thought Most traders don’t lose because they lack talent; they lose because they fight probability instead of using it. Trading is uncertainty made measurable — a game of math, mindset, and patience. Learn to think like a risk manager, not a fortune teller. And remember, if you’re here for entertainment, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll probably leave happier. Throughout this post, I’ve referenced other entries that explore each of these mistakes in more depth. They’re all part of the How To Lambo series, where I keep breaking down the probabilistic view of trading in plain language: practical, rigorous, and free of jargon. If you haven’t read them yet, I highly recommend starting with “Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by CF_444
ONEUSDT 30M small step towards reversalHarmony (ONE) is once again reminding traders that even modest altcoins can surprise with sudden moves. After days of sideways action the price finally found support around 0.0098–0.0099 and is now attempting a breakout. The chart shows a wedge compression, EMAs aligning, and the volume profile confirming a buyer’s zone. If the price secures above 0.0102 the door opens towards 0.0107 as the first solid target. Fundamentally it’s not the star of the show but with crypto market momentum ticking up ONE could easily catch the wave. Right now it looks like a student before the exam: everything is learned, just needs to answer out loud. Along with ONE I’m also adding TURBOUSDT, ADAUSDT and XRP (Ripple) to my buy block — they’re setting up for similar bounce opportunities.
Long
by InvestWorld_777
PARTI IS PREPARING FOR PARTYHi everyone , PARTI is about to make a huge party . Our indicators shows that the coin is undervalued by far and sellers start coming in.. That's mean that this coin is about to explode.. It's a good idea to manage your risk accordingly and be prepared to book your profits at 0.88 area! It might go higher as ALT coins are easy toi be manipulated. At this point you have to be prepared for a 20% drop and if this happens it will be a perfect timing to buy more!!! We will keep you updated when our price target will meet, it might go higher!
Long
by ARPGLanalysis
EURUSD Potential Shorts (Technical Analysis)Overall Context: The dollar's been flexing its muscles lately, and EURUSD is feeling the pressure. We saw some crazy gaps when the markets opened on Monday morning – a sign of shaky liquidity, which usually snaps back. But with the trade war rumbling on, who knows? As traders, we've got to stay prepared, expecting a correction but ready with our contingency plans if it doesn't happen. Let's dive in - Technical Outlook: Failure of the previous accumulation cycle - Classic Wyckoff stuff, cycles run their course. A re-distribution is likely on the horizon, especially if the lower timeframes agree with the bigger picture. (Fractally, we need to see the LTF accumulation fail and for distribution to align with the HTF sentiment and cycle). Price has broken to the downside and has created multiple lower highs. Trading below the 200 EMA and has recently tested and bounced of the 50 EMA (at a correlating level of supply) Keep in mind that USDJPY and EURUSD are inversely correlated and are currently in line - While the inverse correlation is a significant factor, it's not the only thing that influences these currency pairs. Interest rates, economic data, and global events can also play a role and we know how that story looks at present so this is just additional confluence for us. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Scenario 1 (High Probability) - Price will pull back into the supply and drop from there. Scenario 2 (Medium Probability) - Price will continue to plummet and break structure to the downside. Trading Considerations: If price fills the gap and reaches supply levels above, you should wait for bearish confirmations to get involved. If price drops past the previous low, identify new levels of supply and trade accordingly. (I'll try to post an update if this happens). Final Notes: Strong technical picture but this week has a lot of upcoming economic events (NFP, anyone?). With the Tariffs imposed so close to the NFP release one can only assume there will be a power play by the Trump administration which we may not see coming. All we can do for now is follow the money flow to stay in the know! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
4
EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135 EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135 at the price level and the idea more empower when the market strongly break the 1.02722 zone. In the recent days at Friday after the Gold create new High (All time) the other major pairs fall and now traded at the based price. Market will cover the opening gap this morning Monday Feb 3rd 2025. The buying setup; Buy range: 1.0230-1.02135 Stop Loss: 1.01639 Take Profit L1: 1.03456 Take Profit L2: 1.04320 Take Profit L3: 1.05046 Take Profit L4: 1.06155 Use 1% of your account balance at the risk on the setup.
Long
by Bloom_Forex_Official
637% BTC Profit Secured Ride the Crypto Wave with Us !!!!🎉 Profit Alert! Our BTC Long Position has delivered exceptional returns, booking 637% profit (20x leverage) on a partial exit. If you've been following my insights and trade setups, you’re likely celebrating significant gains by now! 🪙💵 If you haven’t followed us yet, you’re literally missing out on life changing opportunities! i would say 😎 This is the power of disciplined trading and precise analysis. But we’re not done yet! The trade is still active with the remaining position, safeguarded by setting the Stop Loss (SL) at the Breakeven Price, ensuring risk free potential for further gains. This is what we do consistently identifying opportunities and executing strategies to maximize profits. If you’ve benefitted, it’s time to spread the word! Share our page with your network, boost this post, and help us grow this community of successful traders. Stay tuned for more high quality setups and actionable insights. The journey to financial success doesn’t end here it only gets better. 🚀 Here is where Traders Thrive Thank you for your continued trust and support! 💪
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by wolfchemist
1
cup and holder pattern for shibashiba is making an interesting and profitable pattern that u can't miss it. first of all shiba dumped for 70% and it makes the cup then dumped again to create a holder. as u can see my trigger I'll enter in there. here we have 3 kind of tp 1:fibo:u can get ur profit by fibo. 2:measure trding: u can see it. 3: max tp:it can touch the piror high. maybe like FO or ENG but with low possibility. don't forget to tell me ur idea and boost this post. bye {;
COINBASE:SHIBUSDLong
by abdollah1386
2
DEC 18 GBPUSD SELL TRADE ACTIVATEDThis is a classic move when you know wyckoff schematics ( supply and demand) . I am checking gbpusd since november, it was only this december that the movement gets slow motion. This was an evidence for me to go bearish once I had a validity in lower timeframe. FAST FORWARD: Dec 12-16 MOVE was a confirmation for me to look for short trades, If you will notice here in my chart : order block was created (supply). I marked it as my POI , Look for validity and EQH---> sell limit activated with a beautiful 1:5RR. (check chart for complete details) . #wyckoffianttrader #profitablesystem #psychology.
Short
by glyrad