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Puellmultiple

Bitcoin Price Target for this Cycle TopPrediction model As a basis for my calculations, I will use my Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple indicator, which allows one to assign an overvalued threshold of 12.49 to the indicator. Step 1: Predicting the Puell Multiple Looking at the historical behaviour of the indicator, I came up with these three cases: Conservative case: 10.4 : this was the value at peak (5), when there was a cycle top, but the indicator didn't reach the overvalued territory Base case: 12.5 : just a bit above the overvalued line (12.49) Bull case: 13.61 : the value at peak (3) from December 2013, when the indicator shot over the threshold by a good margin. It hasn't been there since, and it is unlikely to revisit that value. The current correction factor, after the 4th halving, is 1,63^4 = 7.059 . Dividing the above three cases by 7.059 , I transformed them back to the original Puell Multiple's scale: Conservative case: 1.4733 Base case: 1.7708 Bull case: 1.9252 Step 2: Calculating the Miner Revenue from the Puell Multiple The Puell Multiple is a ratio between the current (Daily) Miner Revenue ("Miner Revenue" from now on) and the 365-Day Moving Average of the Daily Miner Revenue . We know the ratio. In order to calculate either term of the ratio, we have to know the other one. Here, it is easier to predict the Moving Average , as its movement is much smoother and more predictable than the erratic raw Miner Revenue . The 365-day Moving Average of the Mining Revenue is at 44.752M USD on the monthly chart at the time of writing. We can expect that it will go higher as the Miner Revenue goes higher while we are approaching the cycle top, so even the conservative case should be higher than the current value. My Miner Revenue MA estimates based on this, are (see picture below. Yellow line: Miner Revenue , Green line: Miner Revenue MA ): Conservative case: 46.8M Base case: 50M Bull case: 52M Multiplying the Miner Revenue MA values by the previously estimated Puell Multiples gives us nine (three times three) possible Miner Revenue values at the cycle tops. I leave the arithmetic to the reader. Step 3: Calculating Bitcoin's price from Miner Revenue Miners get their rewards in Bitcoin for their effort to secure the network. Since we have Miner Revenue estimations from the previous step in USD, we need to know (estimate) how many Bitcoin are issued daily, then it becomes a simple division: Bitcoin price = Miner revenue / Bitcoin's daily issuance Luckily, this data is publicly available. The Miner Revenue (and thus the Bitcoin issuance) consists of two parts: The block reward: it is fixed and doesn't change between halvings Transaction fees: depends on the network traffic If you look up the Bitcoin issuance chart, you can see that it changes from day to day, and in the past one year The highest value it hit was 575 Bitcoin (BTC) 560 BTC was a well respected level, touched only 3 times We can consider 520 BTC relatively high, with most of the days being below it The average falls between 480 and 440 a day, so we can say that 480 is above average When Bitcoin's price hits All-Time Highs (ATH), we can expect more attention from traders and investors, which translates to more transactions on the network, therefore I expect above average transaction fees issued. My estimates are: Conservative case: 480 Base case: 520 Bull case: 560 By dividing our Miner Revenue estimates by these daily issuance values, we will get three estimates for each. Step 4: Putting it all together As we have seen, in Steps 1, 2 and 3, we have three parameters of the equation that I had to estimate: The Puell Multiple Moving Average of the Miner Revenue Daily Issuance Bitcoin price = (Miner Revenue MA * Puell Multiple) / Bitcoin's daily issuance I have estimated three cases (conservative, base and bull) for each of these parameters. Calculating all combinations yields 3x3x3 = 27 Bitcoin price estimations. Here are the highlights: The minimum estimated price is 123125.5 USD, which Bitcoin has already surpassed at the time of writing. The maximum estimated price is 208563.5 USD The average of all estimations is 165009 USD Conclusion I picked the average value of the result set, which is 165009 USD. I feel it realistic. The minimum is already out of the game, and the maximum feels unrealistically bullish. Rounding it, my bottom line is 165000 USD for Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by OperationHeadLessChicken
Bitcoin Bear Trap: A Historical Pattern Suggests a Rally Ahead!BTCUSDT technical analysis update. The Puell Multiple is a metric that compares the daily issuance of Bitcoin (in USD) to the 365-day moving average of that same issuance. When the Puell Multiple is low, it often indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued, signaling a potential accumulation phase or a bear trap. Conversely, a high Puell Multiple suggests overvaluation, often preceding market corrections. Currently, the Puell Multiple shows that Bitcoin is trading at levels consistent with previous bear traps in its market history. This pattern has appeared in the last three cycles of Bitcoin, where price action initially suggested bearish momentum before reversing sharply into a bullish trend. In the previous cycles, the Puell Multiple signaled bear traps, allowing traders to identify key accumulation points. Following these signals, Bitcoin experienced significant bullish rallies, highlighting the indicator's reliability. With the current Puell Multiple levels indicating a bear trap, we could be on the brink of a bullish rally in the coming days. Regards Hexa
Long
by HexaTrades
Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow📈 Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, the most robust pace in three months, and above expectations for a 0.8%. Following the report, economists at Jefferies pointing to the fall in gas prices, signaled optimism for a further boost in consumer spending that could set up the economy “for much stronger GDP growth in Q3.” 📝 Recap since this day: Dollars American lost 2.30% since the 14 July Crypto market +20% since 14july 60daySMA= 1,24T BTC +24% since 14july , 60day SMA=28k ETH +60% since 14july, 60days SMA=1,9k BTC puell multiple goes from 0.34 to 0.52, since 14 July, miner profitability has increased by 52%, and still below 0.64 marking the end of the bear market (DCA zone still on 24 July then) 12 days until the next waning crescent (5 august), BTC can go up another 28% Euro/USD has de-peg on the 14 July felling below the 1$ mark at 0,99500€\1$ and went up 3% since then USOIL touched the 0,618 Fibonacci lines at 91$ the barrel (golden ratio) the 14 July. A rebound is expected if we touch this price multiple times in the coming days TSL +24% since 14july
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kelman971
Has Bitcoin made it to the top yet??Hi! In this analysis, I present the arguments to show what many renowned traders already claim: Bitcoin is only at the beginning of an uptrend. Why do we have a strong uptrend? In the red lines of the Bitcoin graph, we have the historical tops. Below, I configured the CGO (Center of Gravity Oscillator) with a period of 200 days, using a Fibonnaci retraction that goes from 100 to -0.382. In this indicator, we can see that we still have a lot of room to rise. Why haven't we made it to the top yet? We have a very interesting indicator developed by David Puell called "The Puell Multiple". Basically in a nutshell, it identifies when miners are taking an abrupt and very unusual profit taking. When we have a peak on this indicator above the red dotted line, we clearly have a top. In the marked rectangles we can consider a possible exit point. In the fall we had a few months ago, we can see that it didn't happen, so we still have a new top to discover.
BNC:BLXLong
by andre_007
Bitcoin's Market CyclesI know you've probably seen this kinda chart around many times, but this is only for a reminder. In this post, iv'e outlined the "phases" within Bitcoin's cycles and the ones it has gone through in the past and what it is most likely to do next. Not saying it will repeat itself, but it is probably best to use as a rough outline. There isn't much to say really since iv'e outlined the phases and cycle on the price chart along with how long they each last with their % gain, but iv'e outlined the main topics. Four Main Topics - Bitcoin Phases & Cycles (names of phases & idea not mine) - 20 Weekly Moving Average from Bollinger Bands (this comes from filbfilb - check him out on here, twitter and telegram) - Puell Multiple (easily outlines tops and bottoms) - Non Linear Regression Curve (easily outlines tops and bottoms) The reason behind this post is because I see many folks on various social media platforms expecting price to go lower, seeing 7k, 8k mentioned often, but by looking at this price chart can't help but disagree, who knows maybe this time around the cycle might break. When to Get in Before Next Bull Market? Look out for 20 weekly moving average and whenever price touches during the re-accumulation phase enter into long position and forget about it. This will most likely be your last and best chance of getting in before the next cycle starts. I first saw this pattern spotted by filbfilb When & How Sell the Top and Buy the Bottom? Puell Multiple (make sure it is in logarithmic scale) - Sell into the red area or close to it (don't have to be exact with it) - Buy into the green area or close to it (don't have to be exact with it) Non-Linear Regression Curve - Sell into the upper band - Buy into the lower band In conclusion, the way I see it is this price chart is the only one, one could ever need. Why? Because it easily calls the tops, bottoms, when to buy, when to sell, phases within the cycle. Maybe I'm bias because it's my own chart or because cycles repeat just like in everything else. Hope you enjoyed the read; simple and short, but trading/investing is best done this way. If you liked it, like it and comment! Thank you
BNC:BLXLong
by Muncher
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