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Recovery

DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): INSIDE US TRADE BALANCELooking at the Export and Import data of the last several years we can assume that the US is currently changing its course from consumption oriented to export oriented economy. The change will not be overnight and may take up to several decades, but eventually we can see the US trade deficit gradually erased! On the export side, we can see that US has restored its sales to other countries far beyond the peak of 2008. Moreover, Exports continue to grow within an ascending channel. It is only recently that the readings fell out of the channel, mostly due to the impact of US dollar appreciation. On the import side, US has restored its consumption back to the 2008 levels, however did not expand beyond it significantly. Exports trend laterally since about 2011 after reaching 2008 peal level!
FRED:BOPTEXPLong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): HOUSING STARTS RECOVERY YOUNGHousing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. In line with New Home Sales data, it is seen on on Housing Starts indicator (the two move hand in hand with each other most of the time)
FRED:HOUSTNSALong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISKTotal Capacity Utilization index, which measures the share of industrial capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 80% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index. The risk will be only confirmed if the data continues downward along its new descending trend line (marked orange on the chart)
FRED:TCUShort
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): BUILDING PERMITS RECOVERY YOUNGHousing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. In line with New Home Sales data, it is seen on on Building Permits indicator (the two move hand in hand with each other most of the time)
FRED:PERMITLong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY YOUNGHousing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. It is clearly seen on the New Home Sales data, examined on the chart above.
FRED:HSN1FLong
by Killy_Mel
1
GENERIC POST-BUBBLE STRONG REVERSAL INDICATORSee update ⊜ at bottom after reading the description. When binned over 1-week intervals, we easily see the RSI (Relative Strength Index) fall dramatically, indeed nearly vertically, at the burst of each 'bubble', as expected when viewed in this way. I suggest that one should make a note of the first significant recovery segment after these drops —as indicated by a relatively sharp/discontinuous change at one end, creating a region of convex interior— and record the relative percentage change over which it occurs: call that "A". The next time a relative percentage change is observed ("B", say) to be greater than or approximately equal to the inverse of "A", (i.e. B ≳ -A), where it is again bounded on at least one side by a semi-discontinuous change —up, down or sideways; it does not matter— forming another mostly convex region, (as in the case of "A")— I claim that this will signal the bottom of that short-term crash and thus begin the interlude before the next 'bubble' inflates; and that, furthermore, the RSI (1W) will not again fall beneath the threshold set by the most recent recovery region, (e.g. ~42-48, in this most recent case.), for at least 23 weeks hence, or until after a new bubble bursts, whichever comes first. Because my hypothesis also involves the convexity of the regions as a premise, it is possible this most recent recovery is not yet complete, as it does not strictly adhere to that assumption. However, my overall point is flexible enough to not be needlessly entrenched in that aspect. Also, the aforementioned features are all relative so, while I use RSI (14, close), other parameters revealing similar structure may be used as well, though I've not yet explored the merit of such variations. ⊜ Update: For a more expansive view of this concept, including implicative evidence regarding the recent bubble period offset correction, see my newly published chart I've linked to this one "INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD ... " — an early preview of which can be see in the chart image here or an even earlier version (same basic content) in the comments section. — If you were linked here from the other than you already know all of that anyway. Note: As with all my charts, these findings are statistical. I do not pretend to have any insider information or special knowledge of market psychology which should contribute additional meaning to these observations.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by snowsilence
5