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Analysis Techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis Techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025) Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEUS KCZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure December 2025 Arabica coffee futures continued to rally strongly, up +2.18% to 423.95 cents/lb, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains and returning to the highest level since early May 2025. The current technical setup shows clear bullish momentum following a two-week consolidation between 380–400 cents. If momentum persists, prices could advance toward the strategic resistance zone at 450 cents/lb, corresponding to the March 2025 swing high. Short-term trend: Strongly bullish – continuing wave (3) within a broader recovery cycle. 2. Key Technical Price Levels Resistance: 424 – 450 – 480 Support: 388 – 351 – 316 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-Term Trend: Price has broken above the 400–410 resistance zone and is now aiming for the 450 target area. A clear horizontal accumulation breakout pattern has formed, signaling that buyers are fully in control of the market. (2) Trading Volume: Volume has expanded alongside rising prices over the past week, confirming renewed speculative and commercial participation. Managed money funds are likely rebuilding net-long positions after September’s liquidation phase. (3) Wave Structure: According to Elliott Wave Theory, Arabica is in wave (3) of a bullish sequence that began from the 316.50 low in July 2025. Wave (1): 316 → 388 Wave (2): correction to 351 Wave (3): currently targeting 450–455, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. (4) Confirmation Signals: Price broke above the accumulation range with long-bodied bullish candles, showing no signs of distribution. Short-term EMAs (12–36) are expanding upward, confirming strong momentum. Breakout volume exceeded the 20-session average, validating the move. 4. Strategic View – VNC According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Arabica’s sharp rally through October has been driven by three fundamental catalysts: 1. Short-Term Supply Tightness in Brazil: September exports fell nearly 11% year-on-year, as dry weather slowed harvest progress. ICE-certified stocks dropped sharply, reaching the lowest level in 18 months. 2. Renewed Speculative Flows: Commodity funds have rotated back into soft commodities (coffee, cocoa, sugar) as the energy complex corrected. The Arabica-to-Robusta net-long ratio has risen to 1.4x, its highest since April. 3. Stable Consumption Demand: Roasters in Europe and the U.S. have increased stockpiling ahead of the winter season. The slightly weaker Brazilian real (5.52 BRL/USD) has discouraged farmer selling, tightening near-term supply. VNC expects bullish momentum to persist in the short term, with 450 cents/lb as a medium-term target. However, profit-taking or a rebound in the real could trigger corrective pullbacks near 460–470 cents/lb. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following): Entry: 415 – 420 TP1: 450 TP2: 465 SL: 404 Probability: 75% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.8 Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at 450 Resistance): Entry: 448 – 452 TP: 388 SL: 460 Probability: 25% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3 6. Corporate Hedging Strategies For Arabica Exporters (Brazil, Colombia): Increase forward price fixation around 440–450 cents/lb, as prices approach strong resistance. Utilize options collars to protect profit margins in case of a near-term correction. For Importers and Roasters (EU, U.S., Vietnam): Consider early hedging in the 400–420 zone to lock in costs before a potential breakout above 450. If prices reach 450–460, consider unwinding older hedges to maintain a neutral exposure. For Commercial Traders: Maintain medium-term long positions, targeting 450–455 for partial profit-taking. A confirmed breakout above this zone could open the path toward 480–500 cents/lb.

Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025) Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEEU XRX25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure November 2025 Robusta coffee futures surged +2.70% to USD 4,750/ton, marking a clear breakout from a descending triangle accumulation pattern that had persisted since September. This session confirms a technical breakout, lifting prices above the key 4,700 resistance zone and opening the path toward a medium-term upside target of 5,300–5,560 USD/ton. The short-term trend has shifted decisively from consolidation to bullish continuation, supported by a stable higher-lows structure established since August 2025. 2. Key Technical Price Levels Resistance: 4,986 – 5,300 – 5,561 Support: 4,303 – 4,050 – 3,696 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-Term Trend: After consolidating between 4,300–4,500, Robusta broke above its descending trendline, confirming a bullish reversal. The measured move projection, based on the triangle’s height (~USD 930), suggests a potential advance toward 5,550 USD/ton, equivalent to a 20% price increase. (2) Trading Volume: Volume expanded sharply during the breakout sessions, signaling renewed participation from both speculative and commercial traders after a prolonged Q3 correction. (3) Wave Structure: According to Elliott Wave Theory, prices are progressing within wave (3) of a bullish cycle, targeting 5,300–5,560 USD, where a confluence exists between the April swing high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone. A breakout above 5,560 would confirm further upside potential toward 5,800–6,000 USD in Q4 2025. (4) Confirmation Signals: Breakout above the descending trendline from June. Strong bullish candles closing above the entire short-term resistance range. Momentum and volume confirm active buying pressure (bullish momentum). 4. Strategic View – Bloomberg Intelligence According to VNC, Robusta’s sharp recovery in the second half of October is driven by a combination of three key factors: 1. Tight Supply from Vietnam and Indonesia: ICE Europe reported Robusta inventories falling to their lowest level since 2016. Vietnam’s September exports dropped over 20% year-on-year, as farmers delayed sales in anticipation of higher prices. 2. Steady Demand from Europe and the U.S.: European roasters have increased stockpiling ahead of the year-end consumption season. The strengthening euro against the dollar has improved purchasing power for European buyers. 3. Spillover from the Arabica Market: Arabica prices have rallied above 410 cents/lb, creating a positive contagion effect across the broader coffee complex. The Arabica/Robusta price ratio (A/R spread) has normalized around 1.35x, allowing further upside in Robusta without triggering substitution pressures. VNC notes that the 4,300–4,500 zone now serves as a solid price base, with 5,300–5,560 as an achievable target for November—provided the Brazilian real remains stable and speculative inflows continue. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following): Entry: 4,650 – 4,720 TP1: 5,300 TP2: 5,560 SL: 4,460 Probability: 75% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3 Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at High Resistance): Entry: 5,550 – 5,600 TP: 4,950 SL: 5,720 Probability: 25% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2 6. Corporate Hedging Strategies For Coffee Exporters: Increase forward sales coverage in the 4,750–5,000 zone as global prices have strongly recovered and the domestic basis has narrowed. Consider partial hedging for December–January delivery contracts to protect profit margins. For Importers (Roasters & FMCG Companies): Consider partial hedging on dips near 4,400–4,500, focusing on Q1 2026 deliveries, to secure supply amid continued market volatility. For Commercial Investors: Maintain medium-term long positions targeting 5,300–5,560. A confirmed break above 5,560 could justify expanding long exposure toward 5,800–6,000 USD.

Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025) Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone. The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks. Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646 Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-term Trend: The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline. (2) Volume: Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation. (3) Wave Structure: Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646. (4) Confirmation Signals: A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020. 4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta. Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices. Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup: Entry: 4,450 – 4,520 TP: 4,926 – 5,646 SL: 4,305 Probability: 65% Counter-trend Short Setup: Entry: 4,900 – 4,950 TP: 4,305 – 4,020 SL: 5,000 Probability: 40% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits. Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.

Will Coffee Remain an Affordable Luxury?Global coffee prices are experiencing a significant upswing, driven primarily by severe supply constraints in the world's major coffee-producing regions. Adverse weather conditions, notably drought and inconsistent rainfall linked to climate change, have crippled production capacity in Brazil (the largest arabica producer) and Vietnam (the largest robusta producer). Consequently, crop yield forecasts are being revised downwards, export volumes are shrinking, and concerns over future harvests are mounting, putting direct upward pressure on both arabica and robusta bean prices worldwide. Adding complexity to the situation are fluctuating market dynamics and conflicting future outlooks. While recent robusta inventories have tightened, arabica stocks saw a temporary rise, sending mixed signals. Export data is similarly inconsistent, and market forecasts diverge significantly – some analysts predict deepening deficits and historically low stocks, particularly for Arabica, while others project widening surpluses. Geopolitical factors, including trade tensions and tariffs, further cloud the picture, impacting costs and potentially dampening consumer demand. These converging pressures translate directly into higher operational expenses for businesses across the coffee value chain. Roasters face doubled green bean costs, forcing cafes to increase consumer prices for beverages to maintain viability amidst already thin margins. This sustained cost increase is impacting consumer behaviour, potentially shifting preferences towards lower-quality coffee, and diminishing the price premiums previously enjoyed by specialty coffee growers. The industry faces significant uncertainty, grappling with the possibility that these elevated price levels may represent a new, challenging norm rather than a temporary spike.

The Enigma of Robusta: Why is Coffee's Unsung Hero So Valuable?Robusta coffee, a resilient and versatile bean, has played a pivotal role in the global coffee market. Despite its often overlooked status, Robusta has experienced a significant surge in value in recent years. This article explores the factors driving the rising prices of Robusta coffee, including increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and climate change. By understanding the challenges and opportunities facing Robusta, we can better appreciate its enduring significance in the global coffee industry. Introduction The global coffee market has witnessed a steady rise in demand, leading to a corresponding increase in prices for both Arabica and Robusta beans. While Arabica often takes center stage, Robusta, a less celebrated but equally essential bean, has also experienced a notable appreciation in value. This article delves into the reasons behind Robusta's ascent, examining the factors that have contributed to its growing prominence. Factors Driving Robusta Coffee Prices Several key factors have converged to push Robusta coffee prices upward: Increased Demand: The global appetite for coffee has expanded significantly, particularly in emerging markets. This rising demand, coupled with a limited supply, has created upward pressure on prices. Supply Chain Disruptions: Weather-related challenges, geopolitical tensions, and logistical constraints have disrupted supply chains, leading to shortages and higher costs. Climate Change: Climate change has exacerbated weather-related events, such as droughts and floods, impacting coffee production and driving up prices. Shifting Cultivation Patterns: Some farmers have shifted their focus to more profitable crops, reducing the overall supply of Robusta coffee. The Enduring Value of Robusta Despite the challenges it faces, Robusta Coffee continues to hold significant value. Its resilience, versatility, and unique flavor profile make it a sought-after commodity. As a cornerstone of the global coffee market, Robusta plays a crucial role in meeting consumer demand and supporting the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Conclusion The rising prices of Robusta coffee can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and climate change. While the future of coffee production faces challenges, Robusta's enduring value and adaptability position it as a resilient force in the global coffee market. By understanding the factors driving price increases and exploring innovative solutions, we can ensure the continued sustainability and enjoyment of this beloved beverage.

Robusta hit the target after 2 years at $28.00 I don't know about you but I prefer Arabica Coffee to Robusta. It's sweeter, it's fuller and it's not that bitter. Anyways, I sent out this trade idea in September 2021! The price broke above the Falling Wedge and there were strong signs of upside. This trade idea was a slow pace and anyone who held onto this trade, most likely would have made very little money due to the daily interest expense charges. It really does add up. And unfortunately, we traders can't treat these markets like medium to long term investors who deal with derivatives. Anyways, the target hit at $28.00 and the price looks to be consolidating here before further upside. Hopefully, a new pattern forms and we can get wired back into the trade. INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THE ROBUSTA COFFEE COMMODITY Second Most Traded Coffee: Robusta is the second most traded type of coffee, following Arabica, in terms of global market demand and trade activity. Price Determination: Robusta coffee prices are influenced by factors such as weather conditions, crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical events. Use in Blends: Robusta coffee is often used in coffee blends, alongside Arabica, to provide a stronger and more full-bodied flavor profile. Coffee Exporter Revenue: Robusta coffee exports contribute to the revenue of major coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda, driving economic activity and foreign exchange earnings.