Hi Folks:
A fellow trader asked my advise on Coffee, so I am sharing my view on this commodity.
Ascending channel, resistance broken, all seems to be sending prices to previous highs,
No positions opened, just sharing possible scenario on this pair without knowing much of the fundamentals...
Coffee has started it's descending now, and the key is below 230.00 for further encouragement.
The stochastic are negative now for daily and weekly (the weekly has bearish engulfing pattern).
Strategy sell between $ 240-245 or add to positions for a move to $ 195. Stop-loss $ 252 above Gann resistance.
The bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.
The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
the medium-term picture of coffee is to correct over time. we should be seeing 200.00 levels again.
The current price $ 245 is above the BB and the RSI is way higher than the past corrections observed.
Strategy is to sell in small increments, and stop-loss (perhaps not needed due to the high level of RSI).
manage the position carefully, and take back positions...
shorting coffee after bull runs worked out in the past if there was a clead double top
expecting a 5-15% correction ...
trailing stop above prior days high...
Coffee futures are trading in the high Donchian top.
the Weekly RSI is quite high as well, and judging historical performance, it is quite likely we should see a correction coming up coming weeks.
Strategy SELL $ 230.00 and take profit around $ 180.00
another low risk entry for coffee long above prior day high on an uptrend (above 18 moving average)
stop is at prior days opening price, so risking 4.5 points in order to archive 21 points is a about a 4.6 R trade...
If prices makes a new 100 days high its time to set a trailing stop at the low of the lowest low of the prior two days.
This strategy is on all futures instruments except the stock market indicies better than simply waiting for the price to close below 18 moving average...
ICEUS:KC1!
I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)
In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect.
Three Day...
Hello my beauties.
The chart of coffee suggests a violent bullish breakout of a multi-year downward trendline. The price will probably continue its uptrend, but it is now signalling the beginning of a phase of re-accumulation; the price has reacted strongly with a sudden move to the downside that has stunned the price sideways. I will wait for further...
B ullish clues:
- General uptrend since October 2019
- Symmetrical triangle , and coffee price just perfectly rebound on the symmetrical triangle's support and the 50 EMA
- Bullish Harami on the support
- Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Relative Strength Index ( RSI )
- 50 Exponential Moving Average act as a support
Fundamental news: (from...
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ICEUS