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RSP

RSP 5 WAVES DOWN WAVE 1 HAS ENDED The chart posted tonight is the Equal weighted SP 500 So far this is the cleanest wave structure of all the indexes and as of tonight I can say this is my Preferred wave count and should be the guide going forward for the next 6 to 9 months . So The rally from the oct low of 2022 rallied in a abc x abc for the students for the rest of you it was a ABC rally it did fall short of a .786 to peak at 75 % W.D GANN and an old friend Don Wolanchuk . since the july 27 turn I can count 5 clean waves down and waves 1 and 5 are equal within .25 of one point at the lows .This is now labeled WAVE 1 or wave A but I lean towards wave 1 of wave C which means we have a much bigger decline coming after the A B C rally back to 50 = 144 to .618 % 147 of the drop from July and should peak into the previous 4th wave which was 143.5 . from this rally we should hear good news . This rally I will mark as WAVE 2 or B Wave 3 or C target is in to targets and both are into a perfect Fibonacci retracement 92 and the alt is 75.6. Has I stated the data for the last 121.9 years shows me the avg bear market is 2.4 to 3.2 years long and the price damage is from 38 to 55 % and the avg is 44 % plus or minus 1.75 % .So has I stated in the first week of July long term holdings should be hedged or sold and into 30 and 90 day tbills !!! I see the odds of 92 being the target as it is also .786 from the march 23 low 2020 and 50 % from the march 2009 low as well. BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !
AMEX:RSP
by wavetimer
$RSP This chart becomes significantly crucial if the trend line AMEX:RSP This chart becomes significantly crucial if the trend line is breached. "trend line break" refers to a situation where the price of an asset moves beyond or crosses over a trend line that has been drawn on a price chart. Trend lines are used to represent the direction and strength of a trend in a market. A trend line break can signal a potential change in the trend direction or a shift in market sentiment. Uptrend Line Break: An uptrend line break occurs when the price moves below an ascending trend line. This can indicate a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend or a period of consolidation.
AMEX:RSP
by AlgoTradeAlert
Indices roundup from post a lil over week agoiBarely more than a week we stated that RISK in #equities was INCREASING. We also gave our thoughts on some #indices . Let's see what has happened since that post: NASDAQ:NDX has cooled off - check TVC:DJI pumped since then - check Likely topping out short term here though. TVC:VIX has been trading sideways - check Does seem like it's beginning to gain momentum. TVC:RUT & AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) are both higher - check Shows that the big boys aren't the only ones running. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Is the rest of the market joining the rally?The weekly chart (on the bottom) shows that SPY and RSP were highly correlated until early March. After March, we have seen the two separate in YTD returns. The correlation coefficient confirms this break in trading. The breakdown in correlation between the RSP and SPY is most evident between May and June when RSP lost value and SPY gained value. In the last week, we have seen SPY clear August '22 high. For many, this confirms that a new bull market has begun. While the RSP is far from its August '22 high, we saw it break a short-term resistance level yesterday (6/13/23). The correlation coefficient is also rising back towards 1. It appears that RSP is beginning a new leg up. I believe a new leg up in the RSP confirms the Bull case for the SPY. With the Fed decision this week and both equities close to a support/resistance line, I am also watching for the invalidation of this breakout in the RSP and SPY. For me, that would be both equities closing below their near support/resistance lines.
AMEX:RSPLong
by Ronald_Ryninger
SPY Analysis - Market Breadth, Fed Rate Cycles, and InflationI measure the breadth in the S&P as the SPY (market cap weighted S&P) divided by RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF). The higher the ratio, the more concentrated the market, and therefore less market breadth. As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these times, Fed rates, as well as inflation, were relatively low. There are several exceptions. in November and December 2021, the ratio neared 3.0 at 2.97, and the Fed ensued in early 2022 with an historic rate tightening cycle, on the heals of persistent inflation of 4.7 percent in 2021 which had resulted (and continues today) from the massive COVID stimulus program. The end result was the selloff in we experienced in 2022. Another exception was the period from 2015 to 2019, when rates were gradually raised, but maxed out at 2.40 in a relatively low inflation environment. This is not the environment that we are in today. Today, we have already had a 50 - 61% retrace from the low posted in October, 2022, and the market breadth is again at a low (SPY/RSP=3.00) . The Fed now has the option of pausing/easing and in effect pump a bull, but by doing so it will face a huge dilemma: with an annual inflation rate of 8 percent, and the largest budget deficit in modern history, a return to easy money will further fuel inflation. The other option would be to continue the rate hikes, and promote an economic collapse (starting with the banking sector), which will effectively bring the breadth issue to rest (along with the entire market). Neither of these are good options. Bitter pill...
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn13101
S&P Equal Weight Index (RSP Daily analysis)The volume below is very thin (yellow highlight), and the chart trend is downward and weakening. The equal weight index actually performed a little better than the weighted index during the selloff, retracing only 42% versus SPY 50% during the period of Covid low in March 2020 to all time high in January 2022. There are three lines of potential support, all at volume points of control as well as Gann lines: 138.96, or -1.8% from 5/12 close at 141.52 135.31, or -4.4% from 5/12 close 130.2, or 8.0 % from 5/12 close I'm inclined to believe the 8% scenario is most probable, since typical corrections (which I believe is imminent) range around 7%.
AMEX:RSPShort
by UnknownUnicorn13101
ALT SP 500 WAVE STRUCTURE IS STILL VALID 4th wave The chart posted is the alt wave structure . there is a cycle low due 12/16 and odds favor the last grasp up into jan 3/10 . I still need time for the 2023 forecast as it is a very neg cycle I am working on the time spirals still and it take hours to back check the data back to 1902 . So for now I still feel that we are now in dec late 1973 . The cycle projection from dec forecast model was spot on for the low due 10/4 to the 20th focus on the 10th and a target of 3510/3490 . I am working on the math > I can tell everyone that 2023 will see another drop and decline with the market going from inflation to a massive deflation cycle as the chart of housing is just starting to roll over. As the 40 plus year bull market in BONDS has ended and we just are going back to mean in RATES I do not see rates ever going back to under 2/2.5 in the 10 yr and I have a view that we will see a debt implosion The final bear market low should be oct 2023 and sideways to down into oct 2024 The DEPRESSION LOW
AMEX:RSP
by wavetimer
ALL INDEXES SAME PATTERN ABC DECLINE INTO .382 AND 50 % IHAVE NOW COVERED ALL NET SHORTS .I am now moving to a net LONG AT 50 TO 75 % as of this morning . In fact TROW model told me we would see this sharp drop into cycle low due now TROW also dropped to a perfect .618 at todays low at 109.40 the low 109.18 I am net long and out of any shorts at this point BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER I will be posting the long term update and forecast as I did in dec 22 2021 over this weekend . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
AMEX:RSPLong
by wavetimer
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low 33$SPX posted its second consecutive week of gain (+3.95%), reclaiming its 50-day moving average (declining) during the week. $SPX is currently 5.6% away from recapturing its 200-day moving average. There is a growing belief among market participants that the Fed will soften its approach after the November meeting. The policy move from the Bank of Canada this week further fueled this notion. The Bank of Canada raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points versus an expected 75 basis points. The European Central Bank, however, delivered a 75 basis point increase for its key policy rates, as expected. Market participants digested a slew of economic data this week that both supported and undermined the notion that the Fed will soften its approach soon. Some of the data releases included: September PCE Prices 0.3% The key takeaway from the report is that with continued income growth and a slightly hotter than expected Core PCE price growth, the Fed has an argument to maintain its aggressive rate hike course. Weekly Initial Claims 217K The key takeaway from the report is that the initial claims data suggest the labor market continues to hold up well, which of course is something that will continue to draw the Fed’s attention. Q3 GDP-Adv. 2.6% The key takeaway from the report is that it ends a two-quarter streak of negative GDP prints. It also suggests the economy held up well in the third quarter as it started to acclimate to rising interest rates. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased a solid 3.3%. October Consumer Confidence 102.5 The key takeaway from the report is that consumers’ concerns about inflation picked up again in October on the back of rising gas and food prices. Falling Treasury yields were also a big support factor for the stock market rally during the week. The support to watch for this week is revised up to 3,720 level, a beach of $SPX rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,110, 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,720 level, beaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,490 level.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrev
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low +17) The stock market came into this shortened week of trading on a three-week losing streak. It looked on Tuesday as if that streak might be extended to four weeks, but there was an abrupt turn in sentiment that powered a strong move in the major indices over the last three sessions from 3,900 support level. The losing streak was eventually broken and both the $SPX and $QQQ had reclaimed a posture back above their 50-day moving averages. The resilience to selling efforts in the face of negative developments has fostered a sense that the market has priced in the near-term rate hikes already after enduring three, consecutive weeks of losses. At Tuesday's low, the $SPX was down 10.1% from the intraday high it saw on August 16, so there has been an added sense that the market had gotten oversold and was due for a technical bounce. At the current juncture, the mid-term downtrend remains intact as $SPX remains trading below its declining 200-day moving average, and AVWAP from all time high. The support to watch for this week remains at 3,900 level, the recent lowest level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,212 AVWAP from all time high. Immediate resistance at declining 200-day moving average and downtrend line. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,900 recent low. next support at 3,800.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrev
Breadth has been strong and this week will be critical for $RSPThe market as a whole needs this rally to have healthy breadth and so far that's what it looks like is happening, a broad-based rally. It closed above its 200 DMA for the first time since April 21st (albeit by just 13 cents) which is also when the downtrend started. The downtrend has been thoroughly broken. Looking for 2-3 more strong daily closes above the 200 DMA to be relatively certain that the rally will continue and we could be back in a bull market.
AMEX:RSP
by EBITDAtiger
Reversal likely to hold up #SPX $SPY $RSP I expect some continuation from this recent rally. The percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 50-day MA is now bouncing from being too far below the lower band of the channel I have defined. Annotated on the chart are the previous times it significantly breached the lower band. MACD histogram turning green with MACD line curling up for a cross. RSI bounced and has some momentum. Next test at 50. Bar some terrible news from Ukraine or Taiwan, we should see some of this momentum carry the market higher. For how long? Unclear. I would like to see $RSP start to outperform $SPY to signify broad strength opposed to a few names carrying the entire index (not sustainable or healthy).
INDEX:S5FILong
by EBITDAtiger