Risk Management Rules That Save AccountsSummary 
You lower impulsive errors at the open by running a one minute pre market checklist that begins with a threat label. You then walk five gates for news, volatility, risk, size, and stop. The routine is simple, fast, and repeatable. It creates a small pause that shifts you from emotional reaction to planned execution. This is education and analytics only.
 Decision architecture under stress . Name it to tame it. A short written label reduces limbic reactivity and gives the planning system a window of control. 
 Why this matters 
Most bad sessions begin before the first click. Fatigue, caffeine spikes, fear of missing out, and a cluttered screen push the brain toward shortcuts. The checklist gives you a tiny container of time where you look at the day with clear eyes. One minute is enough. The goal is not perfection. The goal is a stable entry state and a hard off switch when risk boundaries are reached.
  
 The one minute routine 
 
 Threat label . Write one sentence that names your current state in plain language. Example: Slept five hours, feel rushed, second coffee, mild anxiety. This is affect labeling.
 News gate . Scan the calendar for high impact items. Decide if size is reduced or if a filter is active around event times.
 Volatility gate . Classify the regime as normal or high by reading average true range or a recent range. High regime shrinks size and widens stop distance inside your plan.
 Risk gate . Confirm risk per trade, the max daily loss, and the rule that stops new entries for the day.
 Session gate . Choose your focus window. Define a time box. Write one line that states your setup and the review point.
 
 Principle one — the threat label 
The label is short, neutral, and written. You are not trying to be poetic. You are moving the experience from the body into words so that attention can be allocated with intent. Include four elements.
 
 Sleep . Hours and quality. Broken sleep counts as low quality.
 Fatigue . Subjective rating from 1 to 5 where 3 is workable.
 Stimulants . Caffeine count and timing. Early heavy intake tends to raise urgency.
 Emotion . One word such as calm, rushed, irritated, fearful, confident.
 
Add a mood score from 1 to 5. If the score is 1 or 2 you move to simulation or wait fifteen minutes after the open. If the score is 3 or higher you can proceed with the five gates at reduced size when the day feels heavy. The act of naming is not a cure. It is a lever that opens a window where better choices are available.
 Principle two — breathing as a switch 
Use a physiological sigh or box breathing for sixty seconds when arousal is high.
 
 Physiological sigh: inhale through the nose, take a short second inhale to top off, then exhale slowly through the mouth. Repeat five times.
 Box breathing: inhale for four, hold for four, exhale for four, hold for four. Repeat for one minute.
 
This is not about relaxation. It is about coming back to a steady baseline so that the gates can be applied without haste.
 Principle three — time boxing and two strike control 
Time without boundaries invites drift. Choose a primary window. Add a two strike rule. Two avoidable mistakes or two full stops and you switch to review mode. This is a hard rule. You can always restart in simulation. The account does not need you to win today. It needs you to preserve optionality for tomorrow.
 The five gates in depth 
 Gate 1. Threat label details 
 
 Format . One sentence. Neutral tone. No judgment.
 Signal . If the label uses words like frantic, desperate, angry, or invincible you reduce size or you step back. Extreme emotion is a red flag.
 Action . If the label is heavy, attach a micro plan. Example: Watch the first range print, take one A quality setup only, then review.
 
Why it works. The label hijacks the loop that pairs sensation with urgency. By assigning words you create distance. Distance allows choice. Choice reduces error.
  
 Gate 2. News gate details 
 
 Scan . Look for clustered items such as inflation prints, policy statements, or employment data.
 Filter . If an item is imminent you set a no trade buffer around it. Five minutes is a good default for the day session. Longer buffers can be used when events are central to the day.
 Size . On days with dense events you run smaller. Your goal is survival and clarity, not heroics.
 
Reasoning. Event periods change the distribution of short term outcomes. The checklist assumes there are times to engage and times to wait. Waiting is a skill.
 Gate 3. Volatility gate details 
 
 Classification . Use a simple rule such as normal regime when the rolling range is near its median and high regime when it is in the upper quartile. You do not need complex math here.
 Translation . High regime implies half size and wider stops within your plan. Normal regime allows baseline size and standard stops.
 Exit awareness . Volatility is not a gift and not a threat. It is a condition. When it is extreme your first task is to avoid clips that come from noise.
 
The psychology note. When volatility rises your heart rate rises and the mind searches for action. The gate reminds you that you do not need to swing at every pitch. You need to scale your effort to the environment.
 Gate 4. Risk gate details 
 
 Risk per trade . Choose a range that respects your current skill. Many traders use values between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent while they build consistency. Use your data.
 Max daily loss . Choose a hard cap between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent. The exact figure is less important than the enforcement.
 Stop trading rule . When the max is reached you stop. You move to review mode. You do not attempt a last minute rescue. You treat tomorrow as a fresh session.
 
Psychology note. Most blowups do not come from one bad idea. They come from the refusal to stop when the day is off. The risk gate eliminates that refusal by binding action to a predefined boundary.
  
 Gate 5. Session gate details 
 
 Focus . Choose one session. Focus beats breadth. Split focus is a silent drain.
 Window . Define the first hour as your primary window and stick to it. The goal is quality not quantity.
 Written micro plan . One line that states what you are allowed to take. One line that states when you stand down.
 
Time discipline creates high quality boredom. High quality boredom is where patience grows.
 The one minute card 
Copy this card and keep it next to your screen.
 Threat label: Today I feel … because …
Mood 1 to 5: __
Sleep hours: __
Caffeine cups: __
Five gates
News: list items and times.
Volatility: normal or high.
Risk: risk per trade and max daily loss.
Size: full or half.
Stop: exit rule and stop trading rule.
Session plan
Primary session: __
Window: first sixty minutes
Setup: described in one line
Review: five notes after the first trade 
 Bias management 
Your checklist doubles as a bias tracker. Below are common traps and their counters.
 
 Fomo . The urge to enter early because price is moving.  Counter : read your session plan line out loud and wait for the condition that defines your setup.
 Revenge . The urge to win back a loss.  Counter : two strike rule. After two avoidable errors you switch to review.
 Confirmation . The habit of seeking only data that supports the current idea.  Counter : write one invalidation condition in your micro plan before each entry.
 Sunk cost . Staying with a poor position because time and effort were invested.  Counter : use structure based exits and honor them without debate.
 Outcome bias . Judging process by result.  Counter : score the decision quality in your journal independent of profit and loss.
 Recency . Overweighting the last outcome.  Counter : review three prior similar sessions before the open.
 Anchoring . Fixating on a number seen early.  Counter : update levels using the most recent structure and ranges.
 Gambler fallacy . Expecting balance in small samples.  Counter : treat each setup as independent and sized by plan.
 
 Environment design 
Your surroundings push behavior. Design them on purpose.
 
 Screen hygiene . Close unrelated tabs. Remove flashing items. Keep only the chart, the calendar, and your checklist.
 Desk card . Print the one minute card. Physical presence increases compliance.
 Timer . Use a simple timer for your first window. When it ends you review by default before you extend.
 Journal access . Keep the journal one click away. Reduce friction to writing.
 Standing rule sheet . Place the two strike rule and the max daily loss in large font at eye level.
 
 Journal method 
A short consistent journal beats a long sporadic one. Use five lines per session.
 
 Threat label . Copy the exact sentence you wrote.
 Gate notes . News, volatility classification, risk settings, session window.
 Two key decisions . What you took and why.
 Discipline score . Rate from 1 to 5 based on process quality.
 Next session intent . One line that you can act on tomorrow.
 
Once a week add a short review.
 
 Count how many times the max daily loss was hit.
 Count how many sessions began with a score of 1 or 2 and what you did in response.
 Note one pattern you want more of and one behavior you want less of.
 
 Comparator — checklist day versus reactive day 
A checklist day has five visible differences.
 
 Entries occur inside the written setup line rather than outside of it.
 Size reflects volatility classification rather than emotion.
 News windows are respected rather than ignored.
 The two strike rule switches you to review rather than escalation.
 Post session notes exist and inform the next session.
 
A reactive day shows the opposite pattern. You can measure this. Track three numbers for a month.
 
 Number of impulsive entries per session.
 Number of max daily loss hits per week.
 Average emotional intensity rating captured in the first five minutes of the session.
 
Expect the checklist month to show fewer impulsive entries, fewer max loss days, and lower opening intensity. The goal is stable execution and preserved capital for learning.
 Scenarios and how to apply the gates 
 Low sleep morning 
 
 Threat label notes low sleep and mild irritability. Mood 2.
 Action is simulation or a fifteen minute wait after the open. Coffee is delayed. You observe the first range and journal one line without taking risk.
 Outcome is a cleaner state for the second half of the hour or a full stand down without regret.
 
 Clustered event day 
 
 Threat label notes excitement and urgency.
 News gate shows several items within the first hour. Filter is applied. Size is reduced.
 Two strike rule is activated with extra caution due to the environment.
 
 High volatility regime 
 
 Volatility gate classifies the day as high using a simple rolling range rule.
 Size is cut in half. Stops are placed at a distance that matches the regime inside your plan.
 You aim for one A quality setup and then you review.
 
 Emotional drift after early win 
 
 Threat label catches the rise of euphoria and the phrase I can push it.
 Risk gate reminds you that risk per trade remains constant. Size does not increase without a monthly review and data.
 You write a single intent line to protect the day from giving back an early gain.
 
 Emotional drift after early loss 
 
 Threat label captures frustration and the urge to get it back.
 You pause for a breathing cycle. You re read the setup line. You allow the next clean condition or you stop.
 If you reach two avoidable errors you switch to review mode by rule.
 
 Building the habit 
Habits form when three conditions exist. A cue, a simple action, and a visible reward.
 
 Cue . The first launch of your platform is the cue. The card sits in front of the keyboard.
 Action . You write the threat label and walk the five gates. It takes one minute.
 Reward . You check off a visible box on a small tracker. Ten sessions completed equals a micro reward of your choice that does not increase arousal.
 
Use streak tracking. Breaking a streak is a useful signal. Ask why with curiosity, not shame.
 Risk of ruin as a psychological anchor 
Ruin is the end of the game. You reduce ruin probability by keeping the max daily loss small, by sizing positions inside your plan, and by cutting activity when the state is poor. The checklist operationalizes this. You do not need to compute formulas every morning. You need to enforce boundaries in real time.
 Plain language rules you can post above your monitor 
 
 Write a threat label before the open.
 Respect event windows without exception.
 Match size to volatility.
 Stop at the max daily loss.
 Run a small time box and review by default when it ends.
 
 Metrics that keep you honest 
Track the following numbers each week.
 
 Sessions with the card completed.
 Sessions that reached the max daily loss.
 Impulsive entries per session.
 Average mood score at the open.
 Average discipline score at the close.
 
Make a tiny table with ten rows that covers two weeks. This takes five minutes and will reveal whether the checklist is real or theater.
 Frequently asked questions 
 Can I apply this to longer timeframes 
Yes. The gates do not change. Only the windows change. The principle remains the same. Protect the mind, protect the account, and execute the plan.
 Should I scale size after a win 
No, not inside the day. Size changes are a monthly decision informed by data and by a stable discipline score. Day level changes usually reflect emotion rather than edge.
 What if fear is very high 
Use one cycle of the physiological sigh and one cycle of box breathing. Write the label. If the score remains 1 or 2 your best decision is to observe and learn without risk.
 What if I fail the routine for a week 
Do a small reset. Print a fresh card. Shorten the window. Reduce goals. Your only task is to complete the card for three sessions in a row.
 What about accountability 
Share your five line journal with one trusted peer. No opinions. No trade calls. Only the five lines. This light social pressure improves compliance.
 Risks and failure modes 
 
 Liquidity pockets . Thin periods can distort short term structure. The solution is to reduce activity rather than to force entries.
 Event clusters . When several items land in the same session, conditions can whipsaw. The solution is to go smaller or to wait for the post event phase.
 Emotional drift . After two losses the urge to fight rises. The solution is the two strike rule and a physical walk away trigger.
 Overfitting the checklist . A card with twenty questions will not be used. Keep it at one minute.
 Rationalization . The mind can twist rules in real time. The solution is to write numbers before the session and follow them when it is hardest.
 
  
 From routine to identity 
Behavior sticks when it becomes who you are. You can call yourself a routine first trader. That means you respect the card before you respect your opinions. You can call yourself a review first trader. That means you treat the journal as part of the session rather than an afterthought. Identity makes rules easier to keep because breaking them feels like breaking character.
 Closing summary 
The pre market checklist is a small lever with large impact. You begin with a written threat label that pulls emotion into words. You pass five gates that cover news, volatility, risk, size, and stop. You work inside a time box and you accept the two strike rule. You record five lines and you adjust week by week. There is no promise of profit. There is only the reliable reduction of avoidable errors and the protection of your decision making capacity. The rest follows from consistent behavior over time.
 Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. No performance promises. 
Rulesbasedtrading
Long Entry Signal for SUNDOG/USDT Based on the daily chart for SUNDOGUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Exception: There is no 200-period SMA available to guide us on the long-term trend, so proceed with caution.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Thank you !
Long Entry Signal for AGLD/USDTBased on the daily chart for AGLDUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period SMA (red), supporting a long-term bullish trend.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price, price above SMA 200), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Long Entry Signal for GRASS/USDT Based on the daily chart for GRASSUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Exception: There is no 200-period SMA available to guide us on the long-term trend, so proceed with caution.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Thank you!
Long Entry Signal for DEXE/USDT Based on the daily chart for DEXEUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period SMA (red), supporting a long-term bullish trend.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price, price above SMA 200), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
OL/USDT Long Re-entry signal 
On February 15th, we received an entry signal when the PSAR turned bullish. On February 18th, the PSAR was hit, signaling an exit. On February 22nd, the day closed above the initial entry level from February 15th. This gives us a potential opportunity to enter again since we had a close above the original entry signal. You can enter now or wait for the daily close; it’s your choice. 
However, there is no 200-period SMA available to guide us on the long-term trend, so proceed with caution.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or potential profit-taking opportunities.
Thank you! 
Long Entry Signal for PROM/USDTBased on the daily chart for PROMUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period SMA (red), supporting a long-term bullish trend.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price, price above SMA 200), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Market Analysis for TOTAL Crypto Market Cap - Weekly Timeframe
Welcome! The current trend for the TOTAL Crypto Market Cap on the weekly timeframe is bearish, as indicated by our trading system:
MLR Crosses SMA: The Moving Regression Line (MLR) in blue is below the Simple Moving Average (SMA) in pink, signaling a bearish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center Line: Both the MLR and SMA are below the Bollinger Bands Center Line (orange), further confirming bearish momentum.
PSAR Flips: The Parabolic SAR (PSAR), indicated by black dots, is above the price, indicating a bearish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period Moving Average (red), indicating a long-term bullish trend despite the short-term bearish signals.
Current Strategy: Due to the bearish short-term signals (MLR below SMA, MLR and SMA below BB Center, PSAR above price), a long entry is not advisable at this time, despite the long-term bullish indication from the price being above the 200-period SMA. 
Consider monitoring: Watch for a potential reversal where the MLR crosses above the SMA, the BB Center Line, and the PSAR flips below the price, aligning with the long-term bullish trend.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential long entry signals.
That is it !
Thank you !
Long Entry Signal for ENS/USDT Based on the daily chart for ENSUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period SMA (red), supporting a long-term bullish trend.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price, price above SMA 200), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Long Entry Signal for TWT/USDTBased on the daily chart for TWTUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Price vs. SMA 200: The price is above the 200-period SMA (red), supporting a long-term bullish trend.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price, price above SMA 200), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Long Entry Signal for PROS/USDTBased on the daily chart for PROSUSDT on Bybit, here's a concise analysis:
MLR vs. SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), indicating a bullish trend.
MLR vs. BB Center: The MLR is above the BB Center Line (orange), suggesting bullish momentum.
PSAR: The PSAR dots (black) are under the price, confirming a bullish trend.
Exception: There is no 200-period SMA available to guide us on the long-term trend, so proceed with caution.
Current Strategy: Since all entry conditions for a long position are met (MLR above SMA, MLR above BB Center, PSAR under price), you might consider entering a long position.
Stop Loss (SL): Set the stop loss at the current level of the PSAR dots to manage risk.
Monitor My Idea: Keep monitoring my idea for any changes in trend or for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Thank you!
🔜RULE FOLLOWING CHALLENGE, join to improve your trading 💪Did you know that most beginner traders can't follow their rules for 7 days in a row? Unfortunately, they start overtrading or changing the rules of the system, entering random trades, overrisk, etc.
I've been there many many times myself, but then slowly started focusing on this part and made my first 7, then 10 days of rules following, broke with another tilt, started again, reached 17, 30 days, and failed again. 
Each time it became better and better, and now I'm on my way to 50 days of rule-following. 
I developed a routine and system that allows me to keep doing it, day after day. It includes mental technics, as well as simple EAs for Metatrader to help with over-risking and overtrading issues.
If you want to step out of your comfort zone and improve your trading, join this 7-day rule-following challenge by leaving a comment below. 
It will be hosted here on TradingView, probably using the Stream feature, but I'll let you know later when we will gather up.
Follow your Plan! Must have rules to avoid being liquidityFollowing your trade entry rules is the key to avoiding  Following your trading plan is the key to being a consistent trader! Make sure you have thought out objectives that are being hit prior to entering a trade. 
We want to create a system where once your initial signal is hit (such as a HTF supply zone mitigation, strong level hit, FVG mitigation), we then have further rules that help us avoid false breakouts/liquidity grabs and stop loss hits. 
 The simple truth  that all traders eventually find out is the market doesn't do what you expect it to do when you expect it. Even the most advanced and sound calculations will be losers if the point of entry is treated as a secondary factor. 
 Our psychology refuses to account for smaller (LTF) price fluctuations  but they happen at usually prior to doing exactly what we predicted! 
So, have your strict rules - a set of guidelines that this, this, and this need to happen before entering a trade - and if they do, you did your job win or lose. 
On this trade specifically, I had pointed out the potential for a wedge breakout and had a bias toward the downside. As mentioned and as I highlight above, if I would have entered the trade prior to awaiting my entry signals, I would have been stopped out on a major liquidity grab to the upside. 
Therefore,  when preparing for the trade, I identified upper zones that were potential price objectives that went against my bias.  If price did reach these zones and other factors were still supporting my former bias, this upper liquidity grab would be an even greater opportunity for my short trade - but only once the LTF entry signals start blaring.
 
 TL;DR: Even though the HTF signs and confluence for a drop were there, I awaiting a lower time frame CHoCH and reversal (my trade entry rules) in order to enter the trade. This led me to a winning trade as opposed to being stopped out earlier for a losing trade. 
This is the key to consistency!
🧠Remember: THE base on Trading.🙃 When I see all these desperate or panicked publications/posts, it makes you wonder if these people have just discovered #cryptos or if they are in complete denial...
 ↪️ We just finished the 2nd important wave of 📉 #BTC
 ⏰ Wake up and start with THE base ⤵
1) Have a proven Trading #method, thanks to 2 main #indicators of quality and evaluation of #Trading:
↪The “Profit Factor” (P.F.).
↪The "Max DrawDown" (M.D.D.).
2) Fix yourself:
➡ Trading #rules.
➡ Money-Management (M.M.) rules.
➡ rules to best manage your #Psychology.
✔️ This is THE base before you start.
✔️ This is THE base for the long term Trading.
✔️ This is THE basis to really share your experience.
Emotional Responses are Dangerous in this EnvironmentMarkets across all asset classes hate uncertainty because it causes traders, investors, and all market participants more than a bit of indigestion. Fear and greed are emotions that drive impulsive behaviors. Effective decision-making depends on a rational, logical, and reasonable approach to problem-solving. 
 
 The Fed finally addresses inflation
 Recessionary risks are rising
 Stagflation creates the worst of both worlds
 Tools impact the demand side- The supply side is a challenge
 Tools and rules for keeping emotions in check during scary times
 
Reducing impulsive, emotional responses is a lot easier said than done. While it is easy to mitigate emotion during calm periods, they take over and trigger fear or greed-based actions in the heat of the moment. 
In mid-May 2022, the markets face a crossroads. The current market correction is a function of rising interest rates, the potential for an economic decline, a rising dollar, the war in Europe, supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions between nuclear powers, and a host of other domestic and foreign factors. 
It is now the most critical period in decades to take an emotional inventory that will avoid catastrophic, impulse-based mistakes. Wide price variance in all markets could accelerate, and those with a plan are the most likely to succeed and protect their hard-earned capital. 
 The Fed finally addresses inflation 
The US central bank had an epiphany after mistakenly believing that rising inflationary pressures were “transitory” in 2021. The Fed woke up smelling the blooming inflationary environment late last year when CPI and PPI data showed the economic condition rose to the highest level in over four decades. 
At the May 4 meeting, the central bank hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points to 75 to 100 basis points. The central bank told markets to expect 25 or 50-basis point hikes at each meeting for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. The Fed also laid out its plans to reduce its swollen balance sheet, allowing government and debt securities to roll off at maturity. While the Fed has switched to a hawkish monetary approach, it remains behind the inflationary curve. Last week, April CPI came in at 8.3% with PPI at 11%, meaning real short-term interest rates remain negative, fueling inflation. While wages are rising, they are lagging behind inflation. Consumers may be earning more but spend even more on goods and services each month. 
 Recessionary risks are rising 
The US first quarter 2022 GDP data showed a 1.4% decline or economic contraction. The war in Russia, sanctions and retaliation, supply chain bottlenecks, deteriorating relations with China, political divisiveness in the US, and many other issues weigh on the US economy. Meanwhile, rising US interest rates have put upward pressure on the US dollar, pushing the dollar index to a multi-year high. 
  
As the chart shows, the dollar index rose to 105.065 last week, a two-decade high. A rising dollar is a function of increasing US rates, but it makes US multinational companies less competitive in foreign markets. 
The falling GDP in Q1 2022 increases the threat of a recession, defined as a GDP decline in two successive quarters, putting pressure on the Q2 data this summer. 
 Stagflation creates the worst of both worlds 
Recession and inflation create stagflation, the worst of all worlds for central bankers seeking stable markets and full employment. The most recent economic data has put the US economy on the road towards stagflation as rising prices and a sluggish economy require competing monetary policy tools. 
The Fed is addressing inflation with higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, but recession requires stimulus, the opposite of the current hawkish monetary policy path. The central bank must decide on which economic condition threatens the economy more. The Fed seems to have chosen inflation, but it is more than a reluctant choice. Tightening credit treats the inflationary symptoms, but it can exacerbate recessionary pressures as higher rates choke economic growth. Stagflation is an ugly economic beast. 
 Tools impact the demand side- The supply side is a challenge 
Meanwhile, the US and other central banks have deep toolboxes that address demand-side economic issues. While inflation and recession require different tools, the Fed faces other compelling factors from the global economy’s demand side. 
The war in Ukraine is distorting prices as sanctions on Russia and Russian retaliation distort commodity prices. Moreover, the “no-limits” alliance between China and Russia creates a geopolitical bifurcation with the US and Europe. With nuclear powers on each side of the ideological divide, economic ramifications impact the economy’s supply side. China is the world’s leading commodity consumer, and Russia is an influential and dominant raw materials producer. Energy and food prices are the battlegrounds. 
Central banks have few tools to deal with supply-side shocks and changes, which can create extreme volatility in the prices of goods and services. The Chinese-Russian alliance transforms globalism with a deep divide. Global dependence on Chinese demand and Russian supplies distorts raw material’s supply and demand fundamentals. While the US Fed faces a challenge balancing inflation and the potential for a recession, the supply side issues only complicate the economic landscape, increasing market volatility across all asset classes.  
 Tools and rules for keeping emotions in check during scary times 
The best advice for dealing with anxiety came from US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who said, “the only thing to fear is fear itself.” Conquering fear requires a plan that mitigates emotions no matter the market conditions. 
The Fed’s toolbox is bare in the current environment, creating a volatile landscape. Chasing inflation and dealing with a recession in the face of supply-side shocks is a potent cocktail for price variance. Investors and traders need to change their orientation to markets to adapt to the current conditions. The following tools and rules can assist in mitigating the human impulses that lead market participants to make significant financial mistakes:
 
 Hedge portfolios using market tools to protect the downside and allow for upside participation. Hedging reduces the impulse to liquidate portfolios because of fear.
 Since volatility creates opportunities, approach markets with a clear plan for risk versus reward. 
 Remember that the market price is always the correct price. A risk-reward plan only works when risk levels are respected. Markets are never wrong, while traders and investors are often wrong. 
 A long or short position should constantly be monitored at the current price, not the original execution price. Positions are long or short at the last tick.
 Adjust risk and reward levels based on current market prices.
 Follow trends, not news, “experts,” or pundits. Trends reflect the crowd’s wisdom, and collective wisdom reflects the sentiment that drives prices higher or lower. 
 Never attempt to pick the top or the bottom in a market, let the price trends do that for you.
 
The rules are simple, but emotions are tricky. The emotions that trigger impulsive behavior cause market participants to ignore the rules. The critical factor for success in markets is discipline, defined as “the practice of training people to obey rules or a code of behavior, using punishment to correct disobedience.” When it comes to our hard-earned savings and portfolios, the punishment is losses.  
Tuck those emotions away and face the volatile market landscape with a plan. Hedge your nest egg, and you will sleep better each night. Remind yourself that fear is the only factor you should fear. 
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Investing Requires Patience and Nerves of SteelA perfect trading environment? Volatility is a mixed blessing. Day traders love lots of action as it creates opportunities to make or lose money. Day traders are action junkies, looking for price moves and technical patterns like predators hidden in the reeds to pounce. 
 
 Trade or investment- Make a choice before pulling the trigger
 Trading- One set of rules
 Investing- another set of rules
 Common factors
 The differences and pitfalls
 
Investors have a long-term view of markets, waiting for prices that they believe are too low or too high. While some look for prices that could be tops or bottoms, the most successful investors realize that markets can move to illogical, irrational, and unreasonable prices, so they often scale into risk positions over time. 
Rising inflation can be a vicious cycle. In 2021, inflation turned out to be a lot more than a transitory event. At first, the US central bank and Treasury explained away higher prices as a symptom of pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks. They never cited the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. However, it was those factors that lit the inflationary fuse. The Fed waited far too long to adjust monetary policy to counter inflation as they didn’t account for the central bank’s policies that were a root cause. 
Russia is one of the world’s leading commodity producers, and China is the most influential global consumer. The invasion of Ukraine, ongoing war, a Russian-Chinese “no-limits” alliance, and sanctions and support for Ukraine from the US and Europe, create an almost perfect bullish cocktail for commodity prices, pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire. The Fed can do little with monetary policy to extinguish the flames. Since the February 24 invasion, market volatility has dramatically increased. 
The market price variance creates a highly attractive trading environment, but it also offers investors a chance to profit long-term as volatility creates bargains or overpriced assets. 
The current environment requires short-term traders to be on their toes while patience and perseverance are necessary for longer-term investors. 
 Trade or investment- Make a choice before pulling the trigger 
A common mistake made by market participants is many do not distinguish or classify a risk position as a trade or investment before executing a buy or sell order. The vast difference between a trade and an investment is the time horizon. Trades are often short-term, while investments are medium to long-term. 
Categorizing any position as a trade or investment before pulling the execution trigger leads to a different set of rules and can minimize losses and allow profits to run. 
 Trading- One set of rules 
Any successful trader knows that the key to success is discipline. They also know that they will never call the price direction correctly 100% of the time. Moreover, most have less than a 50% average on the path of least resistance of prices. 
Baseball players who rise to the top of the game and wind up in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY, have an average batting average of just over 0.300, meaning they do not get on base nearly 70% of the time. The same holds for the trading hall of fame. 
What separates winners from losers is discipline. In trading, it amounts to a risk-reward approach that increases the odds of long-term success. When risk-reward is in your favor, it allows for wrong directional calls to outnumber correct ones and leads to more profits than losses. Risk-reward should be at 1:1 at a minimum, and the reward should often be higher than the risk level. When a price hits the risk level, disciplined traders will exit, admitting they were wrong. Moreover, the formula for long-term success means a trade can never become an investment because the price moves contrary to expectations. 
 Investing- another set of rules 
Investing is another animal, as a value investor tends to go against the market’s sentiment, taking a contrarian approach. Charlie Munger’s current risk position in Alibaba shares (BABA) is a perfect example, but it applies to markets across all asset classes. 
Mr. Munger saw long-term value in the Chinese e-commerce and technology company, believing it is inexpensive compared to US stocks. At the end of Q4 2021, he was willing to take the Chinese country risk in the stock. Mr. Munger has been buying BABA shares since mid-2021 when it peaked at over $230. His disclosures show he purchased shares in Q3 2021 and Q4 2021. At below the $87 level at the end of last week, his investment is underwater, but he has plenty of capital to support the risk position. Mr. Munger added shares as the price declined, using the principle if I liked the prospects at a higher price, I love it at a lower price. While time will tell if he sticks with BABA, he has scaled into the position at a comfortable level, given his total capital. 
Successful investors do not put all of their eggs in one basket, nor do they amass a full risk position at one price level. They often leave plenty of room to add if market sentiment drives the price to a more inexpensive level when buying or a more expensive level when shorting. 
Investments require patience, perseverance, and a portfolio approach.  Charlie Munger has substantial exposure to BABA, but it is only one of the stocks in his overall portfolio. 
 Common factors 
While trading and investing are different market approaches, some common factors are critical:
 
 Successful traders and investors never risk all of their capital on one risk position.
 Success requires a plan before buying or selling to initiate a trade or investment.
 Risk-reward and leverage dynamics are critical.
 Success requires the acknowledgment that  the price of any asset is always the correct price  because it is where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the marketplace.
 Successful traders and investors eliminate the emotional impulses from fear and greed.
 
These principles guide successful traders and investors.
 The differences and pitfalls 
Trading and investing are different because:
 
 Time horizons - Trading requires a short-term orientation while investing is medium to long-term.
 Technical versus fundamental - A trader tends to use short-term technical factors driven by market sentiment. Investors are more likely to react to fundamentals and longer-term trends.
 Approach - A trader tends to be more dynamic, reacting to each price movement in a market. An investor is often passive, watching market action over more extended periods.
 
The critical pitfalls are:
 
 Traders and investors should never assume an assets’ price is wrong and they are right. The current price is always the right price. 
 Attempting to call tops and bottoms in any market is dangerous as prices often move to illogical, unreasonable, and irrational levels on the up and downside.
 Never allow a trade to become an investment because the price move contrary to expectations. 
 Changing a game plan during a trade or investment’s life refutes the original thesis. A change should be considered a new risk position, requiring abandoning the existing trade or investment. 
 Failure to account for the worst-case can lead to disaster. Risk involves price, liquidity, and the accessibility to an exit.
 No trade or investment should prevent others. Allocating too much capital can cause devastating losses. 
 
In early March 2022, market volatility has created a paradise of opportunities for traders as wide price variance is fertile ground for short-term risk-reward dynamics. Investing in the current environment where inflation and geopolitics create the most uncertain landscape in decades. An investment plan requires patience and nerves of steel. The old saying, “look before your leap,” is appropriate for traders and investors as they should always plan before executing purchases or sales to enter a risk position. Highly volatile markets make planning critical. 
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 Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
8OC and the S&P seasonal tradeI am working on indicators for Jake Bernstein. The 8OC is a simple and powerful indicator for viewing trends and also serves as the timing trigger for Jake's seasonal trades. 8OC gave us an early warning on the recent stock market decline. We triggered on the September S&P short trade this year and reached our first profit target easily. I am now waiting patiently for the next big seasonal trade in stock index futures. (Hint: it is a long trade)

















