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Bitcoin - New rising wedge, you must see! 127k, then drop to 85kI am the first human on the internet to share with you this rising wedge pattern that is currently forming on Bitcoin. As you know, rising wedges are in general bearish patterns, so you can expect a pretty strong downtrend after this pattern is formed. But right now Bitcoin is strong, and I expect a new all-time high in the following weeks. I know that there are many moon boys in the comment section calling for 300k, 500k, or even 1 million USD per bitcoin until the end of the year or 2026, but this is completely impossible. A much higher chance than that would be that the artificial moon explodes or ugly satanic Saturn explodes. So you can imagine that. From a technical point of view, the falling wedge is somewhere in the middle of its formation; we don't know when it will end, but I expect this pattern to end sometime in the second half of Q4 2025. My Elliott Wave count suggests that we are in the final Wave (5)(5)(5), which is a pretty rare situation; it happens really only once every few years. I think the ultimate top on Bitcoin could be around 127,000 USD for this bullish cycle, and I am pretty realistic here. If this falling wedge pattern breaks to the downside, there really isn't any strong support until 85k that can prevent Bitcoin from further falling. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Long
by Xanrox
50
EUR/USD - Fundamental Move (18.09.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1744 2nd Support – 1.1704 Fundamental Updates : Fed Chair Powell described this rate cut as a way to manage risks due to a weaker job market, and said there is no need to rush further rate cuts. The Fed's future plans suggest more rate cuts this year, but only one more in 2026. 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
34
Lingrid | GOLD Potential Pullback from 3700 Psychological LevelOANDA:XAUUSD faced rejection at the 3,700 resistance zone, signaling exhaustion in the recent bullish leg. The divergence at the highs supports a potential reversal, with price already slipping back toward the mid-range of the upward channel. If momentum continues lower, a breakdown under 3,635 could open the way toward 3,570 as the next key support. Sellers remain favored while price trades below 3,700, keeping the bias tilted downward. ⚠️ Risks: A sudden risk-off move or geopolitical tension could revive safe-haven demand for gold. Any dovish Fed shift or weaker US data may fuel a breakout above 3,700 instead. Strong ETF inflows or central bank demand could limit downside pressure. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lingrid
20
Dollar - Daily Range I Liqudity I Key Level - ShortDollar has reached key level after whipsaw move on FOMC. It also grabbed liqudity and COT is still bearish while HTF Key Level on lower prices. Hence I think new low is in play. Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it. “Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.” David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter 💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by David_Perk
11
GOLD → Rates have been cut. Will growth continue?FX:XAUUSD , following the Fed's decision on interest rates, caused a shock, updating the ATH to 3707, then updating the minimum to 3633. Since the opening of the European session, the market has been recovering, but there is a BUT... The Fed's Dot Plot confirmed the forecast of two additional rate cuts before the end of the year, which provides long-term support for gold. The USD remains under pressure after the Fed's decision, despite a short-term rebound. Trump's statements and the escalation of conflicts continue to fuel demand for safe havens. After rising to a record high of $3707, a short-term correction is possible. If today's jobless claims come in better than expected, it will temporarily strengthen the USD. As for Powell, his emphasis on “meeting-to-meeting decisions” may limit appetite for risky assets. Resistance levels: 3674.7, 3688.6 Support levels: 3654.5, 3633, 3626.8 Technically, since the opening of the European session, gold has spent its intraday ATR reserve. From the specified resistance level of 3675 (psychological level), a correction to 3660-3655 may form before continuing to grow to 3675-3688. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
XAU/USD | GOLD ATH at $3,707, Then Heavy Dump – What Happend?By analyzing the gold chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that after the Fed rate cut announcement, the price first dropped from $3,686 to $3,649, stopping out many buyers. Then, gold rallied sharply, gaining 570 pips up to $3,707 and printing a new ATH, which stopped out sellers. After that, the market turned again, with another heavy drop that stopped out fresh buyers too. As I mentioned yesterday, this move was expected. Many asked why gold dropped despite the rate cut — the reason is that the news was already priced in last month. The market had anticipated the cut, which is why gold had already rallied earlier, and that’s why we saw this sharp drop after the announcement. Currently, gold is trading around $3,637 after falling to $3,627. I expect this decline to continue toward the next target zone at $3,612–$3,622. Once price reaches that level, we’ll review the next scenario. The key supply zones to watch are $3,667, $3,677, $3,684, and $3,691. I hope this analysis was helpful for you — stay tuned for more setups based on this outlook! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
22
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GOLD? Gold pulled back after printing a fresh high and reacting to the latest FOMC meeting. It has since broken below key support and also violated its ascending trendline. In the short term, price action is expected to remain range-bound to bearish, heading toward the next support zone. As long as price remains below the broken trendline and resistance, the short-term bias stays bearish to sideways. However, in the medium term, the overall outlook remains bullish, and a fresh upside wave may develop once the correction is completed. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HAMED_AZ
16
XAUUSD Reversal Signs Grow – Bears Eye 3620/3570In yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out that while OANDA:XAUUSD remains technically bullish, the signs of a potential reversal were already piling up. That view played out quickly: after spiking above 3700 on the Fed’s decision — which triggered my sell orders — gold reversed sharply, dropping all the way to a local bottom near 3645. The market then staged a natural rebound after such a violent sell-off, and at the time of writing, price is consolidating around 3655. Interestingly, this was last week’s resistance, now acting as short-term support. Looking ahead, I believe the correction of the nearly 4,000-pip rally in less than a month is far from over. A fresh drop could be next. For the bears, the key levels to watch are: • 3620 – the first checkpoint for potential downside continuation • 3560-3670 – a stronger support zone I’ve highlighted before, aligning with the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally A move towards these levels would still be a healthy correction within the broader bullish context — not at all an out-of-the-question scenario. 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
14
BTC: From Triangle to Flag → 118K?Let's take a look at the recent market context. Bitcoin climbed aggressively, creating a powerful impulsive leg upward. That rally formed the pole of our bullish flag, a clear continuation pattern. After that, price consolidated, shaping a tight, downward-sloping flag, while overall momentum stayed bullish. The critical moment came just recently when price broke out of the flag with real strength. A decisive breakout candle! So the bias is clear — the bullish flag is active, the breakout is confirmed, and the projection points us toward 118,000. The structure is clean, the momentum is strong… and the market is telling the story.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TrendDiva
47
Bitcoin will break resistance level and continue to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. The market dynamic for Bitcoin has undergone a significant shift, with the prior bearish trend being invalidated by a strong breakout from a downward channel. This reversal has established a new bullish market structure, with the price action for BTC now being methodically guided higher within a well-defined upward channel. This pattern has been confirmed by multiple rotations between its support and resistance boundaries, originating from the 108400 - 109400 buyer zone. Currently, the asset is undergoing a healthy correction after testing the upper part of the channel, and the price is now approaching a critical confluence of support. This area is defined by the ascending support line of the channel and the major horizontal 109400 support level. The primary working hypothesis is a long, trend-continuation scenario, anticipating that buyers will defend this support confluence. A confirmed bounce from this area would signal the end of the correction and the resumption of the primary upward trend. This move is expected to break through the intermediate 117500 resistance level. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at 119600, targeting the upper resistance line of the channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by LegionQ8
14
FOMC Day: Prepare for Potential Bitcoin Volatility!Today is a big day for the markets – the US Federal Funds Rate decision and the FOMC Press Conference are scheduled, events that could potentially change the game for Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and other assets . But until the meeting begins , we still have time to analyze the charts and prepare. Keep in mind : as we get closer to the announcement and especially during the release, the market could turn highly volatile. Manage your positions wisely and don’t forget your stop-loss levels . ------------------------------------------- Bitcoin rose about +2% yesterday on the news that " Trump Family's American Bitcoin just went public on the Nasdaq ." Bitcoin is currently trading in an ascending channel and Resistance zone($116,900-$115,730) near the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($118,354-$117,329) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , if interest rates cut , Bitcoin could be completing wave 4 and then rising again and possibly forming a new All-Time High(ATH) . On the other hand, if interest rates do NOT cut , Bitcoin appears to have completed wave C of the Zigzag Correction structure(ABC/5-3-5) . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $114,860(First Target) before the Fed meeting starts , and if interest rates are not cut , we will see a further and more sudden drop in Bitcoin . And if interest rates CUT , there is a high probability of a Bitcoin pump, so stick to the first target($114,860) for now. Second Target: $114,470 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $115,597-$115,330 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $114,351-$113,640 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $113,031-$112,430 Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates? Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
32
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Movement Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Movement From : 3665 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
4
Latest Gold Price Update Today👋Hello everyone, let's take a look at OANDA:XAUUSD ! Yesterday, gold experienced a volatile trading session after the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its September meeting and decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, as expected. The reference interest rate is now at 4-4.25% per year. Typically, when the Fed cuts interest rates, the US Dollar weakens, which boosts demand for gold. However, this time, the rate cut led investors to sell gold to take profits. The main reason is that the rate cut aligned with previous expectations, and gold prices had already surged in anticipation, making the market less surprised by this move. From a technical perspective, gold is currently hovering around the 3,670 USD level and is gaining momentum from the support zone. I think the current phase is a healthy correction before the bulls take action again. Today's unemployment claims data will set the stage for the next move. What do you think about the trend of XAUUSD? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kevinn_Nguyen
16
Gold: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments?GOLD: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments? Powell continues to make hawkish comments about the economy and the reasons for interest rate cuts. He repeatedly emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve (FED) and that its monetary policy is working well. These comments still support the strengthening of the US dollar and unless we face more manipulation, gold could begin the process of dissipating from this new bearish pattern. Gold has formed a rising wedge pattern, which often signals a bearish reversal. The price has already broken below the wedge, showing early signs of weakness. If sellers remain in control, the downside targets to watch are: $3,618 $3,586 $3,530 As long as Gold stays below the wedge, the bearish outlook remains valid. However, if the price climbs back inside the wedge and holds above $3,707, the bearish scenario could fail. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ PS: Let's see what happens now
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KlejdiCuni
10
Diamond Shift, Channel in Play!Price action recently formed a diamond pattern right at the intersection of two channels, a high-probability area for a shift in direction. The diamond acted as a turning point, and from there, price shifted into a new phase: the creation of an ascending channel. Within this structure, we can clearly see consistent higher highs and higher lows, confirming that momentum is now with the buyers. The market transitioned smoothly into this new ascending channel. What’s important here is that the channel is not random: it’s an orderly climb, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. That shows controlled buyer pressure rather than chaotic volatility. As long as price continues to respect the lower boundary, the bias remains bullish, with the target being the top of the channel. So, the sequence is clear: Diamond pattern at the intersection → transition into an ascending channel → target at the channel high.
Long
by TrendDiva
15
123 Quick Learn Trading Tips - Tip #8 WHERE & WHEN or WHAT size?WHERE and WHEN or WHAT size? Build an Empire? In the war of trading, many soldiers focus only on scouting the perfect battlefield. They spend all their energy finding the perfect place ( 'where' ) and the perfect moment ( 'when' ) to launch an attack on the market. They believe a flawless entry point is the key to victory. 🧠 However, winning a single skirmish doesn't mean you will win the entire war . A wise general knows that long-term victory depends less on one heroic charge and more on managing the army .Your capital is your army. The secret to winning the war is not just knowing where to fight, but knowing how many troops to risk in each battle. Committing too many soldiers—using a position size that is too large —to a single fight can lead to a devastating loss that ends your entire campaign. But by deploying your troops wisely, you ensure that no single loss can ever wipe you out. This allows your army to survive and live to fight another day. This is how you conquer. "To be successful in the world of trading, it is important where and when we enter, but to remain successful , what's important is what size we enter with." - Navid Jafarian Why did the overconfident general lose the market war? For every battle, he knew the perfect location to attack, but his only strategy for troop size was " ALL IN! " 😂 Command your capital like a master strategist, and you won't just win trades, you'll build an empire .🏰 Look forward to our next tip!
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Navid_Jafarian
17
DEFT - Trio Retest Sets the Stage for a Bullish Impulse!DeFi Technologies ( NASDAQ:DEFT ) is carving out a rare role as a public, regulated gateway to DeFi. With nearly US$974M AUM through its Valour platform (as of Aug 29, 2025, with US$91.7M YTD net inflows), strong profitability, and a 10% buyback program running until Aug 2026 , DEFT is positioning itself at the intersection of traditional markets and decentralized finance. 📊 Technical Analysis DEFT has been overall bullish, trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in blue. - After rejecting the TRIO retest (orange), the entire momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish. - The TRIO retest is the intersection of three key factors: The lower bound of the red falling wedge pattern. The lower trendline of the rising blue channel. The psychological $2 round number. - Bulls confirmed control after breaking above the falling wedge. - If support holds, the next key level to watch could be near $5. 💡 Bigger Picture - Public Gateway to DeFi: One of the few publicly listed pure-play DeFi companies, traded on Nasdaq (since May 2025), Cboe Canada, and Frankfurt, with daily trading volumes often reaching 2–5M+ shares. - Strong Fundamentals: Valour manages US$974M in AUM with steady inflows, making it a leading European digital asset ETP provider. - Consistent Growth: FY2024 revenues reached C$204M with C$116M EBITDA, and momentum carried into 2025. - Strategic Moves: Positioned at the crossroads of tokenization, custody, and blockchain finance, with a 10% share buyback authorized through Aug 2026. DEFT is also engaged with next-gen initiatives like the Quantum Stablecoin Settlement Network (QSSN), highlighting its role as a convenor for innovation in digital finance. - GCC Expansion: DEFT recently launched DEFI DMCC in Dubai, signaling its strategic push into the MENA region, one of the world’s fastest-growing digital asset markets. 📘Bottom line Technicals and fundamentals are aligning. With a successful TRIO retest and supportive macro trends in DeFi adoption, DEFT could be gearing up for its next major bullish wave. 📌 Always do your own research and speak with your financial advisor before investing. 📚 Stick to your trading plan, entry, risk management, and execution. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~ Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:DEFTLong
by TheSignalyst
14
GBP/USD - Channel Breakout @ H1 (BoE Interest Rate Today)CMCMARKETS:GBPUSD GBP/USD - Channel Breakout with strong volume and today BoE Interest Rate, it gives high movement. "The Fed is still signalling more rate cuts, but at the same time still sees okay growth, which is a positive combination for share markets" The Fed reduced rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, as expected, and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year, initially sending the dollar plunging. Support by Likes and Comments. Thank you.
Short
by AM_AlphaTrading
12
TSLA path to 550/650 USD Breakout Still Pending🔥 What specifically drives TSLA into 550–650 📦 Deliveries + mix surprise If unit volumes beat whisper numbers and mix favors higher-trim/FSD attach, you get more gross profit per vehicle without needing price hikes. Watch the cadence of regional incentives and shipping vectors; strong NA/EU mix plus improving China utilization is the sweet spot. 🛠️ Margin stabilization → operating leverage Gross margin base effect + opex discipline = powerful flow-through. Even a 100–150 bps lift in auto GM, coupled with energy GM expanding as Megapack scales, can push operating margin into low-mid teens. That alone recodes the multiple market is willing to pay. 🔋 Energy storage stepping out of auto’s shadow Megapack/Powerwall growth with multi-GW backlogs turns “side business” into a credible second engine. As deployments and ASP/contract mix normalize, investors begin modeling $10–$15B annualized energy revenue with attractive GM — this is multiple-expanding because it looks more like infrastructure/software-tinted industrials than cyclical autos. 🤖 Autonomy & software monetization bridges Two things move the needle fast: (1) clear progress toward supervised autonomy at scale (drives FSD attach + ARPU), and (2) licensing (FSD stack, charging/NACS, drive units). Even modestly credible paid-miles/seat-based models (think $50–$150/month vehicles on fleet) transform valuation frameworks. 🦾 Optimus/robotics as a real option, not sci-fi The market doesn’t need commercial ubiquity — it needs line-of-sight to pilot deployments and unit economics where labor-substitute ROI < 3 years. A few high-credibility pilots (warehousing, simple assembly, logistics cells) can tack on optionality premium that pushes the multiple toward the top of the range. 💹 Options-market reflexivity Flows matter. Elevated call demand near ATH turns dealers short gamma, forcing delta hedging that lifts spot, which triggers more call buying → a familiar feedback loop. On breakouts, watch open interest skew to short-dated OTM calls, and put-call ratios compressing; these magnify upside in a tight float day. 🌍 Macro & liquidity If indices hold highs and the rate path doesn’t tighten financial conditions, growth duration gets rewarded. TSLA’s beta + story premium thrives in that regime. ________________________________________ 🧠 Outside-the-box accelerants 🛰️ “Software day” packaging A coordinated showcase that bundles FSD progress, energy software (fleet, VPP), service/insurance data, and Optimus pilots into a single capital-markets narrative could reframe TSLA as a platform. The Street responds to packaging; it compresses time-to-belief. 🤝 Third-party FSD/charging licensing headlines A single blue-chip OEM announcing software licensing + NACS deep integration reframes the competitive landscape. The equity market pays a software multiple for recurring seats. 🏗️ Capex signaling for next-gen platform without GM hit Announcing a modular, high-throughput manufacturing scheme (cell to structure, gigacasting tweaks, logistics compression) with proof that unit economics are accretive from ramp can flip skeptics who anchor to past ramp pain. ⚡ Grid-scale contracts + financing innovation If Tesla pairs utility-scale storage with project-level financing (think repeatable ABS-like channels for Megapack), you de-risk cash conversion cycles and unlock a new investor constituency (infrastructure/green income). That tightens the multiple. ________________________________________ 🏎️ Comparative playbook: RACE (Ferrari) & NVDA (NVIDIA) 👑 RACE — the scarcity & brand ROIC lens Ferrari’s premium multiple rests on scarcity, orderbook visibility, and brand pricing power. TSLA doesn’t have scarcity, but it can borrow the RACE lens via (a) limited-run, ultra-high-margin trims that anchor halo pricing, (b) waitlist-like energy backlogs that create visibility, and (c) bespoke software packages that mimic “personalization” margin. In bull phases, RACE trades as a luxury compounder rather than an automaker; TSLA can earn a slice of that premium when the energy + software story dominates. 🧮 NVDA — the flywheel & supply-constrained S-curve NVIDIA’s explosive run blended (1) clear demand > supply, (2) pricing power, (3) ecosystem lock-in. TSLA’s battery and compute stacks can echo that dynamic: limited 4680/cell supply + Megapack queues + proprietary autonomy data moat. The moment the market believes TSLA is supply-gated (not demand-gated) in energy/AI, it will award NVDA-like scarcity premia. Add toolchain stickiness (training data, fleet miles, Dojo/AI infra), and you get ecosystem multiples rather than auto multiples. 📊 What the comps teach for TSLA’s 550–650 zone • RACE lesson: visibility + pricing power boost the quality of earnings → higher P/E durability. • NVDA lesson: credible scarcity + platform control turbocharge EV/Sales and compress the market’s time-to-future state. • Translation for TSLA: blend of luxury-like quality (energy contracts + premium trims) and platform scarcity (cells/AI stack) → multiple rerate into our target band. ________________________________________ 🧾 Valuation outlook 🧮 Earnings path • Units up mid-teens % Y/Y; ASP stable to slightly higher on mix; energy + software up strongly. • Auto GM +100–150 bps; Energy GM expands on scale; opex +SMC disciplined → op margin 12–15%. • Share count glide modest. Forward EPS ≈ $9–$11. • Multiple: 50× (conservative growth premium) → $450–$550; 60× (software/autonomy visibility) → $540–$660. • Why the market pays up: visible recurring high-margin lines (FSD, energy software, services) + AI/robotics optionality. 📈 EV/Sales path • Forward revenue $130–$150B (auto + energy + software/services). • Assign blended EV/Sales 6.5–7.5× when energy/software dominate the debate. • Less net cash → equity value per share in $550–$650. • Check: At 7× on $140B = $980B EV; equity ≈ $1.0–$1.1T with cash, divided by diluted shares → mid-$500s to $600s. Momentum premium and flow can extend to upper bound. ________________________________________ 🧭 Technical roadmap & market-microstructure 🧱 Breakout mechanics A decisive weekly close above prior ATH with rising volume and a low-volume retest that holds converts resistance to a springboard. Expect a “open-drive → pause → trend” sequence: day 1 impulse, 2–5 sessions of rangebuilding, then trend resumption. 🧲 Volume shelves & AWVAPs Anchored VWAPs from the last major swing high and the post-washout low often act like magnets. Post-break, the ATH AVWAP becomes first support, then the $500 handle functions as the psychological pivot. Above there, $550/$590/$630 are classical measured-move/Fib projection waypoints; pullbacks should hold prior shelf highs. 🌀 Options & dealer positioning On a break, short-dated OTM calls populate 1–2% ladders; dealers short gamma chase price up via delta hedging. Expect intraday ramps near strikes (pin-and-pop behavior) and Friday accelerants if sentiment is euphoric. A steepening skew with heavy call open interest is your tell that supply is thin. ________________________________________ 🧨 Risks & invalidation 🚫 Failed retest below the breakout shelf (think: a fast round-trip under the $4-handle) downgrades the setup from “trend” to “blow-off.” 🧯 Margin or delivery disappointments (e.g., price-war resumption, regional softness) break the EPS/EV-Sales bridges. 🌪️ Macro shock (rates spike, liquidity drains) compresses long-duration multiples first; TSLA is high beta. 🔁 Flow reversal — if call-heavy positioning unwinds, gamma flips to a headwind and accelerates downside. ________________________________________ 💼 Trading & portfolio expressions for HNWI 🎯 Core + satellite Hold a core equity position to capture trend, add a satellite of calls for convexity. If chasing, consider call spreads (e.g., 1–3 month $500/$600 or $520/$650) to tame IV. 🛡️ Risk-managed parity Pair equity with a protective put slightly OTM or finance it with a put spread. Alternatively, collars (write covered calls above $650 to fund downside puts) if you’re guarding a large legacy stake. ⚙️ Momentum follow-through Use stop-ins above key levels for systematic adds, and stop-outs below retest lows to avoid round-trips. Size reduces into $590–$630 where target confluence lives; recycle risk into pullbacks. 💵 Liquidity & slippage Scale entries around liquid times (open/closing auctions). For size, work algos to avoid prints into obvious strikes where dealers can lean. ________________________________________ 🧾 Monitoring checklist 🔭 Delivery run-rate signals (regional registration proxies, shipping cadence). 🏭 Margin tells (bill of materials trends, promotions cadence, energy deployment updates). 🧠 Autonomy milestones (software releases, safety metrics, attach/ARPU hints). 🔌 Licensing/partnership beats (NACS depth, FSD/AI stack interest). 📊 Options dashboard (short-dated call OI ladders; put-call ratio shifts; gamma positioning). 🌡️ Macro regime (rates, liquidity, risk appetite). ________________________________________ ✅ Bottom line 🏁 The 550–650 tape is not a fairy tale — it’s a stacked-catalyst + rerate setup where energy/software/autonomy rise in the narrative mix, margins stabilize, and options-market reflexivity does the rest. Execute the breakout playbook, respect invalidation lines, and use convex expressions to lean into upside while protecting capital. esla (TSLA) — Breakout Playbook 🎯 Core Thesis • Insider conviction: Musk’s ~$1B buy. • Risk-on macro: equities at highs, liquidity supportive. • Options reflexivity: call-heavy flows can fuel upside. • ATH breakout (~$480–$490) = gateway to price discovery. ________________________________________ 🚀 Upside Drivers to $550–$650 • Deliveries & Mix: Surprise beat + higher trim/FSD attach. • Margins: GM stabilization + energy scaling → op margin 12–15%. • Energy: $10–15B rev potential with infra-like multiples. • Autonomy/Software: FSD attach, ARPU, licensing. • Optimus/Robotics: Pilot deployments → ROI < 3 yrs adds optionality. • Licensing Headlines: OEMs adopting NACS/FSD stack. • Capital Markets Narrative: Packaged “software + energy + robotics” story reframes Tesla as a platform. ________________________________________ 🏎️ Comparative Bull Run Lens • Ferrari (RACE): Scarcity, orderbook, luxury multiples. • NVIDIA (NVDA): Scarcity + ecosystem flywheel → EV/Sales premium. • Tesla Parallel: Blend of luxury quality (energy backlogs, halo trims) + AI scarcity (cells, fleet data, Dojo). ________________________________________ 📊 Valuation Bridges • EPS Path: $9–$11 EPS × 50–60× = $450–$660. • EV/Sales Path: $130–150B revenue × 6.5–7.5× = $550–$650. ________________________________________ 📈 Technical Roadmap • Breakout > $490 → retest holds → next legs: o $550 / $590 / $630 / stretch $650–$690. • Watch anchored VWAPs; ATH shelf flips to support. • Options chase accelerates above round strikes.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
46
Gold (XAUUSD) Breaks Structure | Potential Bullish ContinuationGold (XAUUSD) on the daily chart has confirmed a break of structure (BOS) above the key resistance area. After this strong impulsive rally, price is currently consolidating near the recent breakout zone. Support zone: $3,600 – $3,620 Previous resistance now acting as support Trend supported by EMA200 and strong bullish momentum Possible scenario: Price may retest the breakout zone before continuation towards higher levels This setup suggests that as long as Gold holds above the breakout support, the bullish trend remains intact. Traders should watch for price action confirmations around the $3,600–$3,620 demand area. This is not financial advice. Always manage risk and use your own analysis before taking trades.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProfitMagnet-Pro
12
BTCUSD – Aiming for Higher Targets 👋Hello everyone, great to see you again! What are your thoughts on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ? Here’s my bullish outlook: Bitcoin is still holding its upward structure within the ascending channel. After bouncing from the support area around 110,000 USD, price has regained momentum and is now testing nearby resistance at the time of writing, aiming for the first resistance target at 123,500 USD. If this resistance is broken, the bullish momentum could continue strongly, with higher targets at the upper boundary of the channel. Both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA are supporting this outlook. As long as BTC stays above the ascending trendline, the bullish scenario remains dominant. This could be the chance for buyers to keep control of the market. Do you agree? Share your thoughts with me!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
14
GOLD 4H CHART ROUE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, 4H Chart Update Yesterday we completed 3655 and 3696, noting that price would likely range between these two levels until we saw an EMA5 cross and lock to confirm the next move. As expected, we continued to see bounces within this range allowing us to catch clean bounces. Now, we are seeing 3655 being tested with a candle. For confirmation of downside toward 3615, we still need EMA5 to cross and lock below 3655. ⚠️ If the EMA5 fails to lock, we can expect another retest back up toward the higher range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3655 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3696 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3738 BEARISH TARGETS 3615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3583 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3545 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3545 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3509 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3458 3409 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3409 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3360 3320 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
The Big Fed Rate Cut Is Here. How Did Markets Do & What’s Next?“ Best we can do is 25bps ,” officials, probably, when they gathered to lower the federal funds rate. It wasn’t the 50 basis points some of you had expected. But you also didn’t expect to hear that two more trims are most likely coming by year end. Let’s talk about that and what it means for your trading. 🎤 Powell Delivers The Federal Reserve finally trimmed rates for the first time in nine months, cutting the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%–4.25%. This was hardly a surprise. Markets had already fully priced in a quarter-point move. But the real twist was the Fed boss hinting at two more cuts this year. With just two FOMC meetings on the calendar, it’s pretty clear: unless something changes dramatically, traders should expect a cut at both. The decision wasn’t unanimous. Newly minted, Trump-appointed Fed governor Stephen Miran wanted to go big or go home with a 50bps slash. Powell, though, balanced his message by saying risks to the labor market had grown while inflation was still running at 2.9% (way above target). What does this mean? The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment is officially leaning toward protecting jobs at the risk of flaring up inflation. 💵 Dollar Takes a Dive The immediate reaction was classic. A weaker dollar is the natural byproduct of lower rates, and the greenback obliged by sliding against major peers. The FX:EURUSD pushed toward $1.19, its highest in four years, while the FX:GBPUSD tested $1.37 and the FX:USDJPY sank below ¥146. For forex traders, this was textbook: lower yields make the dollar less attractive, especially compared to rivals with steadier or higher returns. But that was a reaction to the initial shock. By early Thursday the dollar bounced back, because markets love to overreact before correcting, but the broader trend is still tilted bearish . 📈 Stocks: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Stocks were less enthusiastic. The S&P 500 SP:SPX hovered near flat, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC slipped 0.3% for a second straight loss, and the Dow Jones TVC:DJI managed to buck the trend with a 260-point climb. The takeaway? Traders had already bought the rumor of rate cuts, jammed their cash into equities, so when Powell delivered the expected 25bps, it wasn’t enough to light another fire. The bigger hope lies in those promised future cuts, which could set the stage for another push higher – especially if Big Tech earnings hold up through the third quarter. (For the record, earnings season is almost here.) Thursday's futures contracts were showing a big jump ahead of the opening bell with Nasdaq futures up by more than 1%. 🟡 Gold Shines, Then Stumbles Gold OANDA:XAUUSD did what gold usually does when the Fed loosens policy: it powered up. Bullion was surfing on the high point of its all-time record of $3,700, before sliding back under $3,640. What’s the logic behind rising gold prices and a falling dollar? In a low-yield environment, non-yielding assets like gold look more attractive, and a weaker dollar only sweetens the deal for overseas buyers. Still, this week’s whipsaw reminded everyone that gold is no straight line up – momentum is there, but so are the bears guarding resistance. 🟠 Bitcoin Shrugs Crypto was more muted. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD slipped 1.2% after the cut, dipping toward $115,000, only to bounce back above $116,000 the next morning. For the orange coin, the Fed story is just background noise. Institutional inflows and ETF demand remain the key drivers, and traders are still gauging whether crypto wants to behave like a risk asset or play its “digital gold” role. Still, the OG coin remains off its $124,000 record from mid-August , the market seems caught between consolidation and correction. ⚖️ The Balancing Act The Fed’s challenge is clear: unemployment is rising, job gains are slowing , and payrolls have been revised lower for months. At the same time, inflation has crept back up, with core prices still well above target. Cutting too much risks reigniting price pressures; cutting too little risks a labor-market slide that could snowball into recession. Powell chose the middle ground – a modest 25bps – and teased with two more to calm investor nerves. 👀 What’s Next? Markets now have a new playbook: watch every jobs report ECONOMICS:USNFP , every CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI release, and every Powell presser between now and December. If job creation continues to cool, the Fed will likely follow through with the cuts. If inflation heats up, those cuts may get scaled back. And if both trends stall, expect chop – the dreaded sideways trade that tests everyone’s patience. What can you do in this situation? One message is to stay nimble. The dollar’s longer-term weakness is reshuffling the forex space, gold is on the cusp of a breakout, and stocks remain in record territory. And crypto is doing its usual unpredictable mood swinging. In a nutshell, Powell gave markets a gift in the form of liquidity, but as history reminds us, the Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away. 👉 Off to you : What’s your strategy in this market? Now that you have the cut (and two more likely on the way), are you bullish or bearish? Share your thoughts in the comments!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by TradingView
3