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ridethepig | Dovish RBNZ Pricing & Commodity Shortages📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On the monetary side, the correct flow to shelter from if things materially worsen (sadly looks inevitable) is the dovish RBNZ. After the latest meetings they have opened the window for a game changer on the stimulus front coming in August (via lowering domestic borrowing costs). Consider the situation on the AUD side of the equation: Commodity shortages are entering back into play via the Covid shock which is a prelude towards the monetary crisis. Gold, Iron Ore, Copper and etc all look set for further advance; it will keep the basis for some action to the topside in AUD via collateral. Here tracking closely 0.677x in AUDUSD and 0.637x in NZD as the line in sand for the cross. Look to ride AUDNZD up towards the 1.12 macro targets. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
Both commodity currencies are weak, but AUD is weakerHi Traders, this is my plan for this pair, if the all conditions will be met I will enter (or might not). Make sure you follow me all updates will be shared here from opening until the close of the trade. Don´t hesitate to comment with any questions and hit like for the support. Reason: Longer term the CAD is the strongest of the commodity currencies it has better interest rates, a better economy and will hold up better if we get risk off Aussie will be sold. COT - Banks has reduced massive longs on the AUD. THey are not buying the CAD too much too but still it looks better for the CAD. Technical: Price just arrived to the supply zone and the top of the channel, Volume was decreasion on the up move. I will short the break of the trendline. FX Hunter Strategy is based on mainly watching the big picture of overall world economy and dividing the FX pairs in to couple baskets.Following the volume of big players ( COT by CFTC) and tick volume helps to see what the market movers are doing. Parallel channels, Supply / Demand and Market Profile are used to determine levels of interest for the trading. Slight usage of Elliot waves for the market structure.
Short
by David_Perk
8
XAU / USD ANALYSIS - BEST PICK IN A CRISIS!In the 4-hour chart we see how the moving average lines have been placed downwards after crossing the 100-SMA line, above the 200-SMA line, indicating an upward trend. Added to this is the stochastic, which points to an upward trend in the medium term given a rise above the overbought level, accompanied by a MACD that remains positive with a crossing of its lines. If XAU / USD manages to consolidate above $ 1,700 an ounce, we could again see a bullish push, continuing to create new 7-year highs. Still, short-term indicators indicate overbought, which could result in a cyclical correction on the upside. A key novel to monitor will be the psychological barrier of $ 1,700, as a drop below could again attract sellers. Current price action shows some hesitation on the part of investors, but a push above $ 1,754 will reinforce the presence of buyers. If this creates enough momentum, it could jump to $ 1,800, a level that has not touched since September 2011. I always recommended that the best commodity to hold in a crisis is gold and we can see really big profits to my followers! (Look the chart of the past) Many thanks and happy profits! Regards,
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by aleex5893