We like the agriculture sector here with the one of the if not the largest flooding in history for the Midwest. The chart is extremely oversold on weekly and monthly time frame, the daily pattern has a lot of potential and the fundamental could be changing quickly with this flooding (more rain coming and melted snow from up north not arrived yet).
Little bit late so I'll just monitor this trade, winrate is quite awesome.
total Ag hedgers positions are net long at historical levels - that caused 1-2month rally. I'll target for time/or % profit for the next 1-2months
I bought a call vertical today in an agricultural E.T.F. as a way to get a cheap hedge. Assuming if inflation rises or supply gets disrupted for some unknown reason. I am a little unclear of the cost to carry of the futures that it holds and was unable to write cash secured puts in my Fidelity SDA as I was told it was structured as an M.L.P. (master limited...
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This is awesome. I know of so many people who were buying this and coming out with price targets. My system saved me from pain. Short is doing good. At some point , it will rally but wait for proper signals fellas.
Take a look at monthly chart of DBA. Downside momentum is exhausted and I expect some moves to upside now. Still a bearish chart. But no momentum in macd now. Weekly chart is constructive and getting better. I am looking for plays in grains such as corn and wheat to the upside. Will see how it plays out. Stocks and commodities ratio is interesting as...
It looks like Bulls finally gain power.
- Initial bullish Kumo breakout. (To confirm it has to make a higher high and Chikou cross above past Kumo)
- Breakout from major bullish wedge
- Hekin-Ashi gives a buy signal
We'll wait for today close and if momentum holds, we start to leverage our long position.
When something is hated and oversold, it is time to buy it. There is not yet clear conformation for bullish trend, but it will be very interesting when two trendlines meet on weekly chart. Risk reward is on bulls side. And with ever increasing prices, it is only matter of time before actual food become more expensive.
Probability of Profit: 38%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss: $60 contract
Break Even: 18.60
Notes: With the underlying at all-time lows, going for a small directional shot. Going out to April to attempt to take advantage of potential seasonality. Fills look to be pesky, with the bid/ask on this setup at .55/.65 (mid .60) ... . I would also note...