Decided to start looking at the Agriculture ETF, DBA.
Had been viewing it for years now since 2009, but it was in a long downtrend that never seemed to end, until it did in mid 2020.
With a fierce initial upside, and a stall in the previous months, it appears that there might be some retracement to about 18-20 levels, before a real launch.
Much is said about...
Based on the current situation in the Agricultural sector we want to take advantage of this opportunity.
DBA gives us diversified exposure to Corn, Kc Wheat, Sugar, Soybeans, Cocoa and more
It recently filled a gap at 22.04. We see consolidation, then a breakout of it' s 2016 high at 23.01. From there we expect a move to the 25.69 the 1.272% Fib, Followed by...
As inflation is being uncontrollable, we know that inflation is a big concern at moment, The fed on his statement looks more hawkish than ever. because they know inflation can't be solved in the near term. The incoming of food shortages due to Russian sanctions and most assets are highly overvalued like stock, housing, crypto, and commodities. It seems the stock...
Back in Dec 2019, I had posted a warning about food inflation just prior to Covid.
Nov 2021 I once again warned about food inflation as it broke a major 11-year channel
While overall agriculture prices are not as high as they were back in 2011, (at least not yet) the
rate of change is just as important. While most of us may sport bitch a bit about food prices...
LT Conviction: 5/5
ST Conviction: 2/5
Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term.
Explain:
Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years.
This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture...
DBA Agriculture fund weekly chart possible bullish textbook BRB - Breakout Retest Bounce - implying a move higher in the next few weeks.
Large open interest in JAN calls, I added to my 19c position today after seeing buyers present Monday and also a nice wick last week despite a lot of equities down big.
JAN19c - 17K OI
JAN20c - 12K OI
$DBA Agriculture fund looks bullish on weekly (macd cross) and monthly time frame.
Looking at the monthly chart we can see a break above $20.75 zone implies a move through the VP gap to $23.8 zone resistance.
MACD showing good momo and EMA's bullish cross implies continuation to the upside.
Open Interest is very heavy on the call side, and on 11/17 a whale...
This is an incredibly clean breakout.
Nice longish term buy and hold betting on food costs increasing.
Inflation wasn't fooling around and this chart is proving it.
Keep your eyes on it.
I first warned about food inflation just prior to the Pandemic in Dec 2019.
This time it is far more significant break out since aggs are breaking a 13 year trendline.
While we think of our supermarket and take out food costs, the reality is that social unrest
in various parts of the world tends to break out. Arab spring occurred last time. As a rule of...
Fuel costs cannot be blamed as the sole catalyst in rising food prices, as harvests hit by hot weather and Covid restrictions, an increase in global demand – with a dramatically cold 2020 winter and hot 2021 summer, and disruptions in the supply chain, are also to blame. But if transport and farming costs continue to rise, our food bill is likely to keep...
DBA is clearly forming an ascending triangle pattern. With global supply chains showing no sign of improvement, fundamentally agriculture is set to benefit massively from rising prices. This is an obivous long if we manage to break above 19.50 on decent volume.
Brief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean...
This break out of the descending channel looks legit and probably see's higher prices. Looks like a basic basket of agricultural goods is going to become even more expensive. Pattern target -> $20.50
Fund Holdings subject to change
FUTURES % OF NET ASSETS
Corn 14.29
Soybeans 13.73
Coffee 13.60
Sugar 13.25
Wheat 11.31
Live Cattle 9.78
Lean...
1. Commodity Currencies
Australia, Canada, and New Zealand all have commodities that fluctuate with respect to commodity prices. As demand for these countries' export has risen and commodities have increased in value, these three currencies have appreciated. As the dollar depreciates, commodities become cheaper.
A. Aussie Dollar
Australia is a major...
This ETF has been my favourite since 2020. With the scarcity in supply from agriculture segment and the incoming waves of inflation, this could be one good bet for agriculture sector. It's looking like a small cup and handle with the neckline at 19.19, it's looking pretty good if there's good volume to push for breakout. Let's see how the US Market goes for next...
NYSE Arca
