NQ-SP500-NKD-BTC, The wave has startedCME_MINI:NQ1! BINANCE:BTCUSD
CME_MINI:ES1! CME:NKD1!
The wave has started. It's slow, and choppy as they move through the time frames, so if you play the longer time frames, be patient. If you play the shorter time frames, ensure you take profit along the way so you're not chopped up
Video covers – NQ – SP500 – NKD – BTC
ES (S&P) – 100 pt price blocks (Bold Yellow Lines)
NQ (Nasdaq) – 500 pt price blocks
NKD (Japanese Market) – 1000 pt price blocks
BTC (Bitcoin) – 5000 pt price blocks
Legend
Bold Yellow Lines: Top and Bottom of Price Blocks
Dotted Blue Lines: 50% of any Price Block
White Solid Line: 20 EMA
Yellow Solid Line (not price block): 50 EMA
Blue Solid Line: 200 EMA
Method: Follow the MACD and the 200 EMA. Generally speaking, if the MACD is negative or heading negative, the price should be below the 200 EMA or heading below it, and visa versa, as it goes up to go positive, so should the price, and you should be targeting a price (at a significant level – price block) above the 200 EMA.
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NQ 4H Analysis - Range BoundThe SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ 4H is currently in a range, marked by a shifting structure to the downside. Despite attempts to regain momentum, buyers have been unsuccessful, as demonstrated by the annotated sweep on the chart. We are now in a holding pattern, waiting for a direction to be chosen. While the overall trend remains bullish, we are in a cautious phase due to the market forming a balanced range.
There is a bullish internal structure flip, followed by a notably bullish 4H bar. However, the sweep above previous highs indicates that buyers were not ready to drive prices higher. Attempts to rebound on every previous internal lower high fell short, leading us back to where the internal structure flip occurred.
Buyers emerged again off of the internal structure flip high, but unless a higher low is formed and prior highs are finally surpassed, it seems that the momentum is dwindling. This could potentially signal the onset of buyer exhaustion and early indications of a larger timeframe pullback at the beginning stages.
NQ - still (cautiously) bullish despite the volatilityDespite all the uncertainties and volatility in the market, the US indices especially Nasdaq has been resilient. Nasdaq has led the run up since the start of this year and as long as NQ continues to be in the lead among the 3 major indices (namely NQ, SPX an DJI), the market could remain overall bullish.
The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900)
The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing.
Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy).
Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade).
The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways.
p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NQ looking for a temp low on TuesdayWorking on my main SPX/ES update, so this will be quick.
Tomorrow am should produce a buyable low IMO followed by a good bounce.
From where I expect a first temp low by Tuesday, another bounce and down into the next week.
There is also a possibility of another move to above 13000 to even 13500+ in Mar time, but that was mentioned in my tonight's NQ/NDX update.
Have a good night
NQ updateI was blocked for a week for simply mentioning my site I have it under my TradingView profile, so sorry for those who follow me here.
Here is a quick update of NQ and I will post ES later.
We should have this move down into the channel tomorrow.
One thing to note is that 29th (today) was a window for the low, so if tomorrow we see a good pullback, it will be a buy-able one
I will be posting less here as I have other commitments and really dont like being blocked for something I pay for.
NQ made a double bottom when ES did make a new lowsIn my eyes NQ and RTY are stronger then ES at this moment, which is kinda strange to me as it was the leading for the whole move down since ATH.
Support held today (tomorrow's support box).
Ichimoku cloud (not shown here) is in a thin area, so it has a weak support and can break below the lows to finally catch up with the ES.
There is similar bull trendline as in the ES chart I just posted, Im expecting it to hold to go long.
Ideally we get t test it tomorrow or Wednesday am. If we do gap down tomorrow to test that trendline I will be buying longs and hold into Wed high.
Gaping down tomorrow will kill short the open idea and I will be looking for a low to buy instead.
NQ riding the trendline, it will loose it at some pointThat trendline (black) is what Im watching for the NQ to get a confirmation of a breakdown, without it it can extend higher.
Needs to break the line, close 1h under 11735 and re-test the broken trendline to confirm the top.
As stated before, Im going to reduce my protective longs by 50%, if we gap up tomorrow, already started here.
BTW one important thing is that NDX topped at the crossing of some very important trendlines, it was a trendline confluence today:)
NQ - still time for the right shoulderIm long here NQ and ES, tight stop though.
Needs above 11275, the target is 11380-90 by 6am or so.
If we see this move before the PCE numbers, I will exit longs and go short.
What if it will be a repeat of what happened last time PCE number was out.
Tomorrow should move the price above the last several days range, its also a directional change day and it could be a move in one direction but outside of the range.
So a low tomorrow or Monday (Im in a low on Fri/Sun for the futs) and rally into at least 5th or even 7th.
The rally will be muted and choppy imo just to reset the indicators.
Tomorrow is a not weekly, but monthly and quarterly closing!
Should be very interesting close and if it looses today's lows we could see another 100 points plus cut
Have a good night!
NQ will continue its free fall hello,
It was predictable that NQ will go down because of the over injection of dollar in the USA economy,
so it is normal that nq won't stand more this fall is its fatal destiny
always look up for sell opportunities do not buy.
remember i am not having a cristal ball prediction markets future but i try to be more efficient and more rational so kep eyes on my chart it will guide you it is simple to understand
good luck
NQ is getting close to its first main target of 11180Its getting close, should hit next week.
Its still not a place to be long imo, we are still in a rabbit hole
SPX can see 3200 level next month!
Powell damage control is here, dont get trapped if we go up into the close
BTW here is a link from days ago, you know where the price is now
NQ fullfiled the IHS targetPosted this on the Sep 8th:
We hit the target!
Now support at 12465. I will be shorting tomorrows open if we re-test the highs.
Looking for a low on the 13th and press higher. If we see the high on the 13th instead, then we down into the 16-19th.
My ideal pathway is low on the 13th and up into the 19-21st, then big sell off into EOM
If we get above 12830, then we should test 13215NQ next, that would be my ideal target after the 13th low
Will do SPX update in a bit and one more for those who are on my email list.
PM me with your email address if you want to be added to that list, its free, I dont charge anything for sharing of my work, but accept "thank you":)
Enjoy rest of your Sunday!
P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
NQ is at its resistance lineIts hard to call the bottom call from last night, as I mentioned only my gut feeling of the low being in, as the markets were on the verge of breakdown.
"Its really Do or Die territory. My gut feel is telling me we will hold it, but you dont trade based on any feeling..."
I did take 40 points and run and didnt trade much this am, working on something exiting, hope to share it in a month or two...
So far we have bounce off the 12280 resistance zone, needs above this trend line for real breakout, for now its still in short gamma
P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
NQ didnt get a follow through at night, stopped half wayI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
Will do ES update next
NQ has a patheway to 12700 and to 13900 after thatIm tracking the pathway of the NQ to hit 12700 zone by the 25-26th on Aug for a last ideal push to 13900 to finish this move up.
There is also a possibility of a lower high of 13400-13450, but I will update on what I see after we hit the ideal low
Tomorrow's important levels to hold at 13100 and especially 13065