COAI — the most manipulated coin on the market
Pair: COAIUSDT.P (perps)
Bias: Short (tactical)
Thesis TL;DR: Timeline is flashing classic manipulation tells—crowded leverage, public pleas to delist, an “unknown wallet” repeatedly selling into rips, and whipsaw liquidations both sides. I’m fading spikes into prior ATH supply with tight invalidation and scale-out targets.
Why this is a “manipulation” setup (from social timeline)
Open manipulation meme: “PAWNZI” label and multiple posts calling COAI a casino-like gamble.
Crowded leverage: Repeated notes of huge liquidations on both sides and a callout that a mass liquidation triggers near $5.83 if price nukes.
Smart seller behavior: “Unknown wallet” reportedly sells repeatedly into strength, trapping late buyers.
Public escalation: Users tagging @CZ_Binance and demanding review/delist for “price manipulation.”
Behavioral fuel: Screenshots of 292x PnL and regret posts (airdrops sold “too early” → FOMO) stoke late momentum buyers—perfect exit liquidity.
Failed short triggers: Traders trying to frontrun the short got chopped/stopped BE multiple times—signals engineered liquidity hunts before the real move.
Levels I care about
Short interest zone: $6.90–$7.20 (prior ATH pocket / squeeze fuel). Expect wicks.
Momentum pivot: $6.50 — loss/reclaim flips intraday bias.
Liquidation magnet: $5.83 (widely-circulated “mass liq” level = honey pot).
Deeper shelves: $5.60 and $5.20 — prior reaction zones where trapped longs may puke.
Trade plan (short bias)
Entry: Scale $6.90 → $7.20 on spikes; add on 15–60m structure breakdown below $6.50.
Invalidation: 4H close > $7.50 (acceptance above prior high = out, no debate).
Targets:
T1: $6.10 (first shelf; take partials, pay yourself)
T2: $5.83 (liquidation cluster—expect violent reaction)
T3: $5.60 → stretch to $5.20 if momentum accelerates
Risk: Size so that full-stop loss = ~1% account risk. If we wick >$7.35 and snap back in-range, I’ll re-engage with smaller size.
Execution notes:
Expect engineered squeezes before any trend. Let price tag your zone—don’t chase.
If $6.90 is reclaimed after a breakdown, reduce risk—possible bear trap/reset.
Watch perp funding/OI — extreme positive funding into resistance = better fade.
Narrative context (why fade)
The public narrative is doing the heavy lifting: casino vibes, “unknown wallet” selling into pumps, and open calls for Binance action.
Retail euphoria (292x screenshots, airdrop regret posts) provides late long fuel.
If the crowd is staring at $5.83 as the “big liq,” market often hunts it—either as a clean flush or a spoofed front-run to trap shorts. I’ll manage partials proactively there.
