Chart Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)Chart Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)
**Bearish Outlook (Short-Term)**
* **Price is below EMA 7 and EMA 21**, showing short-term bearish momentum.
* Strong **resistance zone** around **\$3,430–\$3,440** was rejected sharply.
* Price has broken below **\$3,405–\$3,395** support and is now **consolidating above \$3,385–\$3,380**, a critical support area.
* Volume is rising on red candles, supporting **selling pressure**.
**Key Support Zone:**
\$3,380 – If broken, next downside targets:
→ **\$3,370**
→ **\$3,360**
*Bullish Scenario (If Support Holds)**
* If **\$3,380** holds and price reclaims above **\$3,395**, a **bounce toward \$3,405–\$3,410** is possible.
* Look for a **break above EMA21 (currently near \$3,402)** for bullish confirmation.
Shortsetup
Gold selling pressure decreased at the end of the week⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under modest pressure during Friday’s Asian session, unable to build on the previous rebound from the mid-$3,300s. Renewed strength in the US Dollar, which extends its recovery from a multi-week low, acts as a headwind for the non-yielding metal. Additionally, fresh optimism surrounding the US-Japan trade agreement has dampened safe-haven demand, keeping gold on the defensive for the third consecutive day.
That said, lingering uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, along with concerns about its independence amid growing political pressure, could limit the USD's upside. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions—this time along the Thailand-Cambodia border—may lend some support to bullion. Investors now await US Durable Goods Orders data, which could influence the greenback’s direction and provide short-term cues for the XAU/USD pair going into the weekend.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices are consolidating and starting to fall below 3400 to stabilize. The momentum for an early rate cut is waning.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3399- 3401 SL 3406
TP1: $3390
TP2: $3380
TP3: $3370
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3310-$3312 SL $3305
TP1: $3325
TP2: $3333
TP3: $3345
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold prices under selling pressure from tariff policy⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) stays under pressure during Thursday's Asian session, extending the sharp pullback from its highest level since June 16 seen the previous day. Optimism surrounding global trade continues to build, fueled by reports that the United States and the European Union (EU) are nearing a tariff agreement, following progress in the US-Japan trade deal. This upbeat sentiment has dampened safe-haven demand and is a major factor weighing on gold prices.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price adjusted down, broke support, faced selling pressure again, accumulated below 3400
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3400- 3402 SL 3407
TP1: $3390
TP2: $3380
TP3: $3370
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3356-$3354 SL $3349
TP1: $3365
TP2: $3373
TP3: $3382
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
SOL CRUSHING-bearish risks developing🔻 4-Hour Bearish Thesis
🔸 Price Action Clues
SOL is currently stalling at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (~$198.18) of the full macro move — a classic profit-taking zone.
Multiple upper wicks and indecisive candles at resistance indicate supply absorption and buyer exhaustion.
After a steep rally, price is moving sideways in a rising wedge/flag, which is a bearish continuation pattern if broken downward.
🔸 Momentum + RSI
RSI at 76 is extended and flattening — often a zone where short-term pullbacks begin.
No confirmed bearish divergence yet, but momentum is weakening compared to earlier stages of the rally.
🔸 Volume Profile
Volume on recent pushes is lower than during breakout, suggesting diminishing bullish conviction.
Bearish if a breakdown below $194 occurs — that's the former breakout level and wedge support.
🧨 4H Breakdown Confirmation
Break below $194 (key short-term support) → opens downside targets:
🔻 $186–$182 (prior breakout base)
🔻 $171 (0.382 Fib retracement zone)
🔻 Daily Bearish Thesis
🔸 Price Action + Key Zone
Price is pressing against the neckline target ($198.18) of the inverse H&S pattern.
Stalling under the red resistance line and 0.5 Fib.
Recent candle closed with a small upper wick + reduced body size, hinting at hesitation after a parabolic run.
🔸 RSI Risk
RSI is at 80.41 — very overbought on daily.
While not immediately bearish on its own, this often precedes either:
Sharp correction, or
Prolonged consolidation
🔸 Fibonacci & Macro Resistance
$198–$200 is a confluence zone of:
0.5 Fib retracement
Previous structural resistance
Measured target of inverse H&S pattern ALREADY HIT.
This is not a great spot to initiate new longs — any weakness here invites a pullback.
⚠️ Invalidation of Bearish Thesis
A strong daily close above $200–$204, ideally with expanding volume, would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward $219 (0.618 Fib).
🧠 Summary:
Yes, there is a short-to-mid-term bearish risk developing on both 4h and daily:
Overbought RSI
Stalling at major Fib resistance
Decreasing momentum
Vulnerable if $194–$195 breaks
Remember: this WILL MOST LIKELY BE A SHORT-SHORT pullback, not a confirmed trend reversal… yet. BUT I'VE INITIATED A STARTING POSITION!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DrAnkin Smöökëē Whizkee. Edumacational Purpiz Only!
Open AI building it's own Browser- Open AI building it's own Browser. They have the talent to build it.
- Apple buying Perplexity AI
- MARKETSCOM:GOOGLE chrome isn't the best. I find Firefox better than Chrome but that's subjective. There's no stickiness in web browsers honestly. It's just that there are no good options.
- Recently, Google chrome added some weird looking AI summarizer on top which must be reducing number of organic hits to the website.
- I'm bullish long term but bearish short term. Open AI is really disruptor and has strong talent density better than Google in my opinion.
Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib🔴 Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib Confluence
Instrument : Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! )
Timeframe : 15-Minute
New Position : Short
Entry Zone : ~3442
Target : ~3362
Stop Loss : ~3458
Risk/Reward : Approx. 6.5+
Setup Type : Reversal from Overextension / Fib Resistance
💡 Trade Recap & Strategy Shift
We’ve officially closed both our recent long entry and our larger swing long position, locking in substantial profit on this move off the 0.618 retracement.
Now, we’re flipping short based on the following:
Price reached the 0.146 Fib extension from the previous retracement leg, a level often overlooked but powerful when confluence lines up.
Trendline resistance from the upper channel has been tagged.
Momentum is showing early signs of stalling after a strong vertical push — textbook overextension.
The rally into this level lacked divergence or structural buildup, increasing the chance of a snapback.
🛠️ Short Setup Details
Entry: 3442 (after signs of exhaustion near Fib confluence)
Target: 3362 (prior structure + 0.382 retracement)
Stop Loss: 3458 (just above high / resistance zone)
Risk/Reward: 6.5:1 — excellent profile for a countertrend play.
📌 Watch For
A break below 3390 will be key confirmation of momentum shifting back down.
Failure to hold 3442 on a retest will invalidate the short and re-open the door for a squeeze higher to 3476/3480.
With trend exhaustion in sight and high confluence resistance overhead, we’re taking the opportunity to pivot short — fully aware of the volatility this region can bring.
EURAUD: Waiting for the FVG Tap and Confirmation to ShortPrice ran previous liquidity and dropped aggressively, creating a clean FVG.
I’m now watching for price to retrace into that imbalance and form a strong bearish candle. If it does, I’ll be looking to short down
Clean structure. Just waiting for confirmation.
HIGH POWERED SHORT ZONE 2.0HIGH POWERED SHORT ZONE ⚡️
Usually, a 3% move doesn’t make anyone blink—but this one? It sent BTC into all-time high territory. I almost popped the champagne… until I remembered I’m in a short.
Not because I don’t believe in upside—but because my add zone in the HIGH POWERED SHORT ZONE hasn’t been tagged. Yet.
Here’s the breakdown 🧵👇
________________________________________
Before anyone goes bUCK wilD and cracks open that dusty bottle of Veuve, double-check something:
📅 The July 10th daily candle needs to close above the monthly swing high (orange line).
If BTC bulls lock that in, then a move deeper into the HIGH POWERED SHORT ZONE becomes real...
play-the-game real…
________________________________________
Where’s this HIGH POWERED SHORT ZONE coming from?
🔻 Solid red line – a trendline from Dec 2024 that has held strong through three separate tests — marking it as a key line on the sand.
🔻 Dashed red line – goes all the way back to Dec 2017. A seasoned veteran of resistance.
I also drew in a white ascending channel—not just for looks. If BTC breaks out, this channel will help us ask:
“How high is too high?”
________________________________________
Now enters Fibonacci — where nature maps out key alignments on the chart. 🌱
🟡 Gold lines = Fib golden ratios
🔵 Teal lines = Fib Degen Ratios
It’s wild how they just line up:
• 2.618? Right on the top of the channel.
• 1.618? Sitting on the 2017 trendline.
• 0.618? Near current support + bottom of the channel.
Also had to draw that horizontal support white line to keep an eye on.
A Bounce or bust? Ask the bUCKmOON!
The Layout tool that Changed the Game for MeTradingView’s layout tool has really helped me stay focused. Using the 1-hour on the left and the 4-hour on the right gave me clarity. The 1H showed many Fair Value Gaps, but it was hard to know which one to trust.
The 4H chart made it easier. It showed one clean FVG lining up with the 50 to 61.8 Fib zone. That is the area I will wait for.
If price returns to that zone and I see a clear bearish confirmation candle, I will take the trade with confidence.
This layout tool has improved my analysis. I will make a short video soon to show how I use it. Big thanks to TradingView for building tools that make trading simpler and smarter.
$OKTA Gen AI tailwinds are not materializing as of now!- I'm a seller of NASDAQ:OKTA at $124 . Company was undervalued at 70s but has run so much without tangible materializing Gen AI tailwinds.
- Theoretically, Agentic AI should have been a great tailwind for SSO but it appears that industry is not yet focussed on security aspect of it when it comes to agentic AI.
- Even on application level, companies are struggling with developing orchestration framework and deploying them at Scale.
- Risk/Reward is not suitable for me to stay long. Short or Avoid/sell $OKTA.
- I might change my mind if they prove themselves today May 27, 2025.
AUD/JPY – Bearish Move Within Bullish Bat StructureAUD/JPY is developing a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern on the 4-hour chart . While the full pattern has not yet completed, a potential short-term bearish opportunity is emerging as the pair begins forming the CD leg.
A clear b earish divergence on the RSI at Point A suggests waning bullish momentum, and a break below Point B may confirm the start of the final leg down toward Point D , completing the harmonic structure.
Trade Setup
Sell Stop Entry: 96.009 (break of Point B – confirms CD leg underway)
Stop Loss: 96.978 (above Point C – invalidates CD leg projection)
Take Profit 1: 95.040 (1:1 risk-to-reward level)
U.S. Dollar (DXY) bearish?Will dollar continue its bearish momentum or will it reverse?
Technical Summary
DXY remains in a firm bearish trend, having dropped around 11% this year. The setup is formed by a chain of lower highs and lower lows, confirming an unrelenting downtrend.
Support Level: ~97.70
Resistance Zone: 98.55–98.80
Long-Term Outlook: Bearish, unless a clear break and close over the resistance zone on the daily or weekly timeframe.
Technically, the momentum indicators remain weak, and the failure to sustain rallies above the 99.00 level also contributes to downward pressure further. The market is now consolidating within a narrow range after steep selling, which suggests probable continuation if macro catalysts are favourable.
Fundamental and Sentiment Drivers
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers are underpinning the weakening of the U.S. dollar:
Federal Reserve Uncertainty:
Speculation over the ultimate fate of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell under political pressure from the executive branch has severely undermined investor confidence in the central bank’s independence. This has been manifested in increased volatility and bearish pressure on the dollar.
Trade Policy and Tariff Risks:
Ongoing trade tensions, including the possibility of sweeping tariffs (15–20%) on Chinese and European Union goods, have created a risk premium on valuations of the U.S. dollar. Market players still fear retaliation and its effects on trade stability in the world.
Fiscal Position and Credit Ratings:
The US fiscal deficit, which is approaching 7% of GDP, and recent credit rating downgrades to its outlook, have set alarms ringing regarding the structure. These fiscal developments have eroded the popularity of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly with foreign investors.
Global Monetary Landscape:
With European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintaining policy guidance tight, and Federal Reserve already indicating that direction for a rate cut in Q4 2025 is being eyed, the falling rate differentials still maintain pressure on the dollar.
Market Outlook: Week of July 21–25, 2025
Major Geopolitical and Economic Events:
DATE : Ongoing
EVENT : U.S.- EU & U.S. — China Trade Negotiations.
MARKET RELEVANCE : High
Resolution or escalation will directly impact USD demand.
DATE : Mid-week
EVENT : Federal Reserve Speeches (including Powell)
MARKET RELEVANCE : High
Monetary policy guidance and institutional stability.
DATE : July 24–25
EVENT : Jobless Claims, Flash PMIs, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders
MARKET RELEVANCE : Medium–High
Labour market data, housing data, and production activity have the potential to shift rate expectations and dollar sentiment ahead of the FOMC and PCE releases.
Strategic Implications
Outlook: DXY remains structurally bearish in the short to medium term. Additional weakness below 98.80 and sustained closes below 97.70 would reassert downward momentum, risking a further retracement to the 96.00-95.50 region.
Possible Bullish Reversal Triggers:
A conclusive resolution to U.S. trade negotiations.
Unexpectedly solid economic data (particularly core inflation or employment).
Hawkish Fed commentary supporting policy tightening expectations.
Last thoughts
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently at structurally weak technical and fundamental foundations. Absent a sudden reversal of the monetary policy message or geopolitical resolution, the path of least resistance appears to remain to the lower side. Market participants need to pay special attention to upcoming economic data releases, central bank rhetoric, and trading news because any one of them could be a pivotal driver of near-term dollar behavior.
EURUSD: Sell Opportunity after Trendline breakEURUSD was in a steep uptrend but it might stop with this recent break through the uptrend. A break like this one on a strong trendline that had multiple touches, indicates either a potential reversal or major pause in the trend. This candle that broke the trendline signals the first hint of structural change.
I will be waiting for a retest and look to get involved in a short setup.
Ideally, what I look for in retests is to be met with a confirming candle. This would confirm the sellers have taken over and validate the change from uptrend to potential downtrend or consolidation phase.
My target would be around 1.1500.
Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis .
RCI, Bear Flag On The Daily As Well As The 4hr Analyzing both the daily and 4-hour charts reveals a very prominent bear flag, which has formed following a steep decline. This pattern is often indicative of further downward movement, and it's hard to ignore the implications.
Word on the street is that they're currently in dire straits. Since the Shaw acquisition, they've hemorrhaged 11 billion in valuation. The situation is exacerbated by declining revenues and missed growth targets. In short, it's not looking promising.
If the trend continues downward, we might see the price testing the $19 USD mark sooner rather than later.
For those who are currently long on this or have any vested interest, it might be prudent to reconsider your position and cut your losses before it's too late.
ETH — Rally Exhaustion or More Upside?ETH has been on an absolute tear. After retesting its old 2018 all-time high, it marked a bottom at $1383 — a brutal -66% correction over 114 days from the $4109 top.
From there, ETH ripped +100% in just one month, followed by 40 days of consolidation, and now, over the past 28 days, it’s surged another +76%, currently trading around $3715 — all without any major correction.
So the big question:
What’s next? Are we near a short setup, or is it time to long?
Let’s break it down.
🧩 Key Technicals
➡️ Bounce Zone:
On June 22, ETH retested the 0.5 fib ($2131.63) of the prior 5-wave Elliott impulse, with extra confluence from:
Anchored VWAP
Speed fan 0.618
➡️ Key Highs to Watch:
$3746 → recent local high
$4109 → 2021 all-time high
➡️ Fib Retracement Levels:
ETH has smashed through all major fibs, including the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and 0.786 fib. The 0.886 fib at $3798.27 is the last major resistance, just above the $3746 key high.
At this zone, we also have:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Monthly Resistance
Negative Fib Extension Golden Pocket Target
➡️ Momentum Signal:
ETH is currently on its 8th consecutive bullish daily candle — historically, after 8–13 consecutive candles, price tends to cool off or correct. A sign to be cautious about longing here and consider profit-taking.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Look for a potential SFP (swing failure pattern) at the key high $3746 to initiate a short trade.
This offers a low-risk setup with:
Entry: around $3746 (if SFP confirms)
Target (TP): ~$3300
Stop-loss: above SFP
R:R ≈ 1:4+
💡 Educational Insight: Why You Don’t Want to Long the Top
Markets often trap late longers near key highs or resistance zones — this is where smart money distributes while retail piles in emotionally.
Lesson: Look for zones of confluence (fib, VWAP, liquidity, FVG) and avoid chasing extended moves after multiple bullish candles.
Patience and confirmation at reversal points lead to higher-probability setups — you don’t need to catch every pump.
Final Thoughts
We’re approaching major highs, so this is a time for caution, not FOMO. Watch for reaction and potential reversals near $3750–$3850.
Stay sharp, manage risk — and remember, tops are where longs get trapped.
_________________________________
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Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Still looking to sell on rallies — nothing’s changedStill looking to sell on rallies — nothing’s changed. The level on the chart? That’s where buyers jumped in before. Makes sense to target it again.
So… why do we say there are "suffering buyers" at this level?
Let’s rewind a bit (see Chart #2) and imagine price at the point marked on the chart.
At that moment, price had clearly returned to a visible local level — 0.8123 — a zone that naturally attracted traders to jump in on the fly , or triggered limit orders .
But here’s what happened next:
Selling pressure overpowered buying interest — and price moved swiftly lower .
That’s when those buyers got caught.
That’s when the pain started.
🔍 What Makes This Level Special?
Broker data from open sources confirms that open positions are still sitting at this level — meaning a lot of traders are underwater, hoping for a recovery that may never come.
It’s not just technical structure.
It’s crowded sentiment , failed expectations , and trapped capital — all wrapped into one.
🧠 This is what we call a "suffering trader" zone — and it often becomes a magnet for future selling .
📌 Follow along for more breakdowns on flow, positioning, and market sentiment .
sideways in weekend downtrend⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggle to extend Thursday’s recovery from the $3,309 region—a one-week low—consolidating within a tight range during Friday’s Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) continues to retreat from its peak since June 23, pressured by dovish signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.
Additionally, growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and their potential consequences for global growth are keeping investors cautious, supporting demand for the safe-haven metal. These factors collectively help limit deeper losses in Gold, though the metal lacks clear bullish momentum for now.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price is moving sideways, accumulating in the downtrend line, not much fluctuation in weekend news
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3381- 3379 SL 3386
TP1: $3370
TP2: $3360
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3293-$3295 SL $3288
TP1: $3308
TP2: $3318
TP3: $3330
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Futures ($GC1!) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 618🟡 Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 0.618 Fib in Bullish Breakout Context
⏳ Pre-US Session Playbook
We're currently watching Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) for a potential short opportunity into the US session open. While the broader structure has broken bullish, we're anticipating a bearish retest scenario from a key Fibonacci level — aligning cleanly with last week’s breakout structure.
No positions have been taken yet — we are setting up for the US session — and are closely monitoring price action near the 0.618 retracement zone before committing.
📍 Setup Breakdown
• 0.618 Fib Retracement from the last bearish impulse aligns with:
○ Recent volume shelf resistance
○ Retest zone from prior breakout
○ An overextended local push into thin volume above 3380
• Bullish Context:
○ HTF breakout from descending wedge structure remains valid
○ Macro buyers still in control
○ Upside continuation risk is high if sellers don’t show up
• Short Bias Conditions:
○ Rejection or absorption in the 3385–3390 zone
○ Weak follow-through above 0.618 (failed breakout scenario)
○ Breakdown of LTF higher low structure post-test
🧠 Strategy Commentary
Although we’re in bullish breakout mode, this is a tactical short setup — a fade into prior structure with clear invalidation. We're not fighting trend, but looking to short into exhaustion at a defined level, with tight risk parameters.
Confluence Factors:
• 0.618 fib alignment
• VRVP volume shelf
• Prior breakout structure retest
• LTF divergence or absorption confirming the fade
🎯 Trade Parameters (Planned)
• Entry Zone: ~3385–3390
• Stop Loss: Tight, 3395–3400
• Target Zone: 3342–3337 (full structure retest)
📌 Patience is key — this remains a setup until confirmed. We'll post live if and when conditions are met.
Let the market come to you.
Gold Trading Idea: Short Opportunity on 15-Min Descending ChanneHello TradingView Community,
Following up on my Gold analysis from Monday, the price action has respected the levels I outlined (check my previous posts for the breakdown), delivering solid trade opportunities except yesterday's news-driven volatility. Today, we're eyeing a short setup on Gold based on the 15-minute timeframe.
Technical Analysis:
Gold is moving within a descending channel on the 15-min chart.
I've identified equal highs and a small FVG (Fair Value Gap) aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the channel's range.
This confluence zone is where I expect the price to react, potentially clearing liquidity above the channel before reversing.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Wait for the price to reach the confluence zone (equal highs + 61.8% Fib + FVG) and show a clear reaction (e.g., rejection or reversal pattern) before entering a short position.
Take Profit: Targeting 3310 level.
Risk Management: If the price fails to reach the zone and breaks lower, I'll stay out to avoid chasing trades. Patience is key here.
Stay disciplined, traders! Let the price come to our zone, and always manage your risk.
Follow for more setups, like this post if you found it helpful, and drop your thoughts in the comments below! Let’s discuss!
#Gold #XAUUSD #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis