SP500 big fall coming SP500 is destined to reach the key resistance before it can determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish. After the December crash, the price is almost completely absorbing the losses and is moving towards the EMA200 passing through the 2690 points: this is the level that will determine the future of this index for the first months of 2019: an upward break will ensure that SP500 can reach the next key resistance ( the one placed at 2815 points) in a few sessions and then try to stretch towards the previous highest level; a rejection by that level will mark the beginning of a new corrective wave that should end with the reaching of the support area at about 2200 points. So far, with the current fundamental scenario the second hypothesis is the most probable. As soon as there are both technical and fundamental confirmations, we will position ourselves in the market.
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Shutdown
Long descending Downtrend holds onGood afternoon,
With the US TECH 100 nearly exactly hitting the estimated peak of 6720 and bouncing off of it, as well as
the daily Candle being a Graveyard Dojii, it seems as if the Downtrend will definitely go on.
With daily candle tommorow that lays below ours, the trend change would get verirified.
Considering all of the bad News we`re currently having and an Uptrend of roughly 3 weeks now it all makes sense
from an Economical, as well as an political standpoint that the Indices will Fall.
In the following days, it`ll be important to look at the VIX as well as to what Trump will say considering the Shutdown.
It could very well be, that once the Shutdown is over all of the bad News get dropped immediatly and the market will have a Huge drop.
Still, we never know what`s coming.
But if the daily candle tommorow closes below ours, it is fair to assume the Downtrend will go on.
My next 2 major Resistances are shown in the Trend.
-Aaron Akkuzu
#shutdown #Brexit
I'm not yet bearish, but cautiously!In my opinion the markets are overheated and a recovery is soon overdue. On top of that, Trump has to prevent a "goverment shutdown" until this weekend. If this doesn't work out, it could at least lead to a small market correction. That's why I'm going to expand my cash position.
Rough day in Crude oil - not every day can be peaches & creamToday was not a good day for me day trading Crude Oil. I find it very helpful when i write up these publications as it helps me see where I made my mistakes and hopefully I correct poor behavior. So indulge me here as I walk you through how I ended up losing $330 on the day (sim). .Because of the holiday atmosphere (and roll issues relating to May contract expiry) I did not trade my combine today but rather just put trades on in my practice account. Regardless of sim vs. live, I consider every trade I do 'live' so when I fail in my practice account I consider it a fail.
Now on to the trades. I woke late (not a good sign in itself) and saw I missed the first BoT long setup off the double bottom registered through the Globex session. In classic FOMO fashion I took the first BoT setup that came on a greater than 33% correction in price. I, of course, assumed the bull market would go on endlessly. The setup was poor (at best) and I later realized it was on a bear momentum divergence (holy rookie mistake batman!).That long represented way too much risk (23 ticks) and I simply could never consider taking that amount of risk on a 'live' trade why I thought it was ok to do in the practice account eludes me. In hindsight one can see why we shouldn't take that amount of risk on any one trade. Anyway, that stop was hit and now I was 23 ticks in the hole.
I must admit, I hastily stalked another setup to get revenge (another bad sign) and took the first BoT short that came along shortly thereafter. Again, looking back in hindsight, momentum itself was on the upswing when I put the short on and later did 'top' out - well after I was stopped out.
So now 0/2 and down 32 ticks on the day. Even though it is just a practice account, I resigned myself to the fact that I just wasn't seeing the market correctly today and shut down operations. Sadder too, I see now a respectable BoT long setup working that I just simply could not consider taking.
Hopefully while you read this you see similar trading mistakes made on your own part and can learn from a 'veteran' that we all make them. No matter how long you have done this, nor how 'rich' you are, a trader is always prone to making mistakes. How we learn/grow from those mistakes is what separates the pro's from the amateurs.
Cheers,
Brian
aka CRInvestor




