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USDCAD Breakdown Ahead? Seasonality & COT Divergence1. Retail Sentiment 59% short vs. 41% long: retail traders are moderately short on USD/CAD. This leaves room for a potential upside squeeze, but positioning is not extreme, so the contrarian signal remains only partial. 2. COT Report US Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short USD (–5,558 contracts). Commercials net long USD (+6,642 contracts). → Speculators are unloading USD, pointing to structural weakness. Canadian Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short CAD (–108,917 contracts). Commercials net long CAD (+115,041 contracts). → A classic pattern: commercials are buying CAD while speculators remain heavily short. Historically, such extreme divergence often precedes CAD appreciation phases. COT Summary: USD: weakness from speculators. CAD: commercials strongly long, speculators extremely short. → Clear divergence: potential CAD strength, bearish bias for USD/CAD. 3. Seasonality September has historically been bearish for USD/CAD: –0.37% over the last 20 years. Also negative on 10- and 2-year averages, more mixed on 5 years. The second half of the month tends to favor CAD strength. 4. Technical Outlook Supply Zone: 1.3850–1.3900 (key resistance repeatedly tested and rejected). Demand Zone: 1.3700–1.3720 (first short target), followed by 1.3600–1.3650. Structure: Strong rejection from the 1.3890 area. Lower highs forming. 50–100–200 MAs in bearish confluence. Daily rejection candle, confirming downside continuation potential. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (short USD/CAD). Setup: Short on pullbacks to 1.3840–1.3860. Target 1: 1.3720. Target 2: 1.3650. Invalidation: daily close above 1.3900. Confluences: ✔ Retail moderately short → room for squeeze, but not extreme. ✔ COT: weak USD + strong CAD commercials → bullish CAD signal. ✔ Seasonality: September historically bearish for USD/CAD. ✔ Technicals: rejection at supply + bearish structure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
ETH: Coiling at 4.45K – waiting for the breakoutHello everyone, let’s take a quick look at ETH. On the H4 chart, price has broken out from the 4.30K–4.40K zone and is now pressing against 4.44K–4.50K. ETH is riding along the Ichimoku cloud, the Kijun line is starting to slope upwards, and there’s an FVG support band at 4.33K–4.38K – meaning buyers are still holding firm. Short-bodied candles right under resistance suggest compression, and a single H4 close above 4.46K–4.50K could quickly propel price towards 4.58K–4.62K, or even 4.70K–4.75K. On the macro side, the backdrop is supportive: softer US CPI/PPI has pulled yields and the USD lower – a tailwind for crypto. When risk appetite rises, breakouts like this around 4.45K often travel further. My bias is for a shallow pullback followed by continuation upwards, as long as ETH holds above 4.33K. Only an H4 close below 4.28K would be more concerning. What about you – do you think ETH has the strength to break above 4.45K? Share your thoughts!
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
4
GBP/JPY: Approaching 195 – waiting for a breakoutHello everyone, GBP/JPY is currently trading around 194.33, approaching resistance at 195.00. On H4, the price structure still maintains higher lows and higher highs, showing that the bullish momentum has not weakened. However, to confirm a strong breakout towards 196.30 – 199.00, price needs to close an H4 candle above the 195.00 area. Technically, support is near 193.90 – 194.00, resistance at 195.00 – 195.60. If 195.00 is not breached, price is likely to move sideways, consolidating around 194–195 before finding the next driving force. From the news perspective, the BoE emphasizes the possibility of rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, putting mild pressure on GBP. Meanwhile, the BoJ keeps rates low, but expectations of future policy adjustments give JPY a chance to appreciate, affecting the pair. In summary, my view prioritizes a bullish scenario if price breaks 195.00, aiming for 196.30 – 199.00; if not, price may range around 194–195. What about you? Share your view in the comments!
by EmmaChartist
17
Solana: Targeting 240–245 USDT After BreakoutHello everyone, On the H4 chart, SOL is maintaining a strong uptrend, continuously breaking resistance and staying above key support zones. The recent break above 234 USDT shows dominant buying pressure, while price action holding above the Ichimoku cloud reinforces the potential to reach 240–245 USDT in the short term. Trading volume is gradually increasing, and SOL not breaking prior lows adds further confidence to the trend. On the downside, the 220–225 USDT area serves as a key support, with lower FVG zones providing additional cushioning in case of corrections or consolidation. From a news perspective, Solana benefits from growing interest in DeFi and network expansion. The ecosystem is attracting significant capital through technological solutions, NFTs, and institutional participation, providing further support to the ongoing uptrend. Do you think SOL will reach 245 USDT soon? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by EmmaChartist
7
Gold: “Soft Data – Tailwind”, Watching 3,660–3,670 BreakHello everyone, today I want to quickly share my view on gold after the latest US data. Jobless claims jumped to 263k – the highest since 2021 – signalling that the labour market is cooling. This scenario usually pushes USD and yields lower, giving gold room to rebound from session lows. On the other hand, August CPI rose to 2.9% y/y, showing inflation is not completely “cool”, but overall the backdrop remains supportive for the precious metal. Add to this the ECB holding rates steady, crude falling around $62.5, US 10Y yields easing to 4.01%, and ETF flows alongside the PBoC still buying gold, I think the current macro environment leans bullish. On the 6H chart, the uptrend structure is intact: price sticks above the Ichimoku cloud with layered FVGs below – signs of active demand. The sideways move now is simply “compression” near fresh highs, as short-bodied candles appear repeatedly, showing sellers lack momentum. What I’m waiting for is a breakout above 3,660–3,670. If we see a clear 6H close, momentum should quickly lift price to 3,690–3,705, and possibly extend to 3.72x. If there’s a dip, 3,630–3,620 will be the first cushion; deeper is 3,605–3,595. Only a 6H close under 3,570 would call the trend into question. Do you think gold has enough strength to break this range? Share your view in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
9
NASDAQ | H2 Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders! 👋 🧐 Market Overview: CPI is out today — and it could be the spark the NASDAQ needs. Price is stalling at the previous all-time high, and that’s where I’m watching closely. I’ve been tracking a double top on the daily for a while now, and today the H2 chart is starting to show the same structure. That kind of multi-timeframe alignment doesn’t happen often. 📊 Trade Plan: I’ve entered a starter short on the daily structure. If the H2 confirms, I’ll scale in with a second position. Risk/Reward: Entry: Stop Loss: Take Profit 1 (50%): Take Profit 2 (50%): 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Double tops work best when paired with other signals. In my system, I look for: - RSI negative divergence - Lower volume on the second top - A confirmation candle close within my entry range This reduces false signals and adds conviction. 🙏 Thanks for reading! Do you trade double tops? 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by GTradingMethod
21
NASDAQ | Daily Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋 🧐 Market Overview: I’ve opened a short on the NASDAQ based on a clear double top setup that formed yesterday. Several of my key variables aligned, giving this trade a high-probability edge: Negative RSI divergence → showing weakening buying momentum Lower volume on the second top → indicating exhaustion Daily candle closure within threshold → confirming structure validity 📊 Trade Plan: RR: 9.1 Entry: 23 931 Stop Loss: 23 178 Take Profit 1 (50%): 22 453 Take Profit 2 (50%): 21 969 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: When trading reversal patterns like double tops, I always wait for confirmation across multiple variables (momentum, volume, candle structure). This increases probability and reduces false entries. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you see this double top holding, or is there more upside left in the NASDAQ? 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by GTradingMethod
23
SMCI Rebounding on its 1W MA50 and targeting the ATH.Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) hit last week its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and this week posts a strong 1W candle. This rebound comes on the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 1-year Ascending Triangle. It may not be exactly like the Channel Up of 2022 but it looks like a similar Accumulation pattern that preceded the massive 2023 rally. The Triangle typically breaks to the upside and technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time that would be even higher than the 2023 rise of +948.85%. In any case that would be our over-extended Target ($180.00), with a more 'reasonable' one being the All Time High (ATH) of $123.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD: Local Bullish Bias! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.17137 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.17255.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
XAU/USD | Gold Faces Rejection Zone $3654–$3675 – Pullback AheadBy analyzing the gold chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has continued its rally since our last analysis, setting new highs one after another, with the latest peak at $3,675. Currently, gold is trading around $3,644, and we still don’t see any clear change in market structure to suggest a strong reversal. However, the $3,654–$3,675 zone is considered a rejection block. If the price manages to close below this zone within the next 12 hours, I expect a price correction. The possible downside targets for this pullback are $3,635, $3,625, and $3,616. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
40
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought COST before the rally: Now analyzing the options chain of COST Costco prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 970usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-9-19, for a premium of approximately $8.85. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:COSTLong
by TopgOptions