Silver Past & Present Bull Run/Bear Market Analysis. Is RSI Key?This month's observations and discussion points are as follows:
+ Looking at the RSI, 200 MA and candles, it would not be unreasonable to believe there is more down time ahead.
+ Buying when the RSI is oversold on the monthly chart is not a bad good idea (not financial advice) as after the ONLY two previous times, bull runs have followed.
Crunching the Data
Bull Run & Bear Market A vs B
Bull Run A >>> Dec 1971 ~ Jan 1980 (8 years & 1 month) Bear Market A>>> Feb 1980 ~ Feb 1991 (11 years)
Bull Run B>>> Mar 1991 ~ Apr 2011 (20 years & 1 month) Bear Market B>>> May 2011 ~ Sep 2018... (7 years & 4 months...)
Bull Run A>>> $1.39 ~ $38.20 (x27.48) Bear Market A>>> $35.12 ~ $3.62 (-89.70%)
Bull Run B>>> $3.75 ~ $49.71 (x13.26) Bear Market B>>> $48.15 ~ $14.16...(-70.60%...)
Notes: Bull Run A was x2.07 larger in price than Bull Run B.
Notes: Bear Market A has so far decreased 19.10% more than the current Bear Market B.
Final Calculation & Summary
Bull Run A was x2.07 larger than Bull Run B, so it's logical to expect Bear Market A to also be x2.07 longer than Bear Market B.
89.70% / 2.07 = 43.33%
Following this assumption, the current bear market needs to go 43.33% down from Bull Run A's ATH and at this point should become oversold on the monthly RSI and ready to begin a new bull run. It's currently already down 70.60% from the ATH of Bull Run B so I GUESS ALL OF THIS RESEARCH WAS A COLOSSAL WASTE OF TIME! I guess every bull run is different and shouldn't be compared?
Silverprediction
SILVER TO GO LONG OVER THE YEARS!No long explanation here, just thought i'd do a quick share on markets I am watching to get in on for the long haul. If you read most of my charts in the past 3 weeks, you should know how I trade. Feel free to use this as your guideline.
This is long-term trade so atleast a year upwards before you look into collecting your winnings. I don't really suggest where to get out, you decide for yourself, but if you want my suggestion on where to consider an exit then feel free to ask.
Wait to bottom out and buy in at trend reversal to the bull side at below suggestions;
1st/top yellow line sitting at 13.723
2nd/bottom yellow line sitting at 9.683
DISCLAIMER!
I suggest working on the monthly view (1M) timeframe, using the MACD , Stoch RSI and CM_Ultimate_MA__MTF_V2 (combo of multiple indicators created by someone and accessible if you have pro account on tradingview).
Do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, thanks.
Silver will lead the Metals Higher InitiallyWhile the gold miners are looking to finish the ABCDE triangle consolidation shortly, they still have not decided whether they will go lower to touch the E at the bottom of the triangle or break out early and leave E behind. Hi Ho Silver however, already gave us a fake breakout first, and has now
gone down and touched the lower triangle point E. This is a buy point as the sideways action or downside should be limited from here, but the upside is massive especially in the 3X Leveraged USLV. I'm a buyer of this now and will be watching the gold miners to follow Silver shortly after silver starts it's move upwards.
Silver to break out?Silver looks to be breaking out from its short term downtrend. This will have long term ramifications on the gold and silver bull run. Expect much higher prices for both Gold and Silver by year end. Silver especially will be very volatile. Load up on silver miners as they will benefit the most from this.
More high possibility for Silver's upside graspFreshly trading its prices right in-between the 8, 21 EMA and 200 SMA, the XAGUSD (Silver) decidedly formed a bullish fakey pin bar suggesting for the continuation of prices higher. This is a strong signal I'm willing to enter on. despite my ongoing trade.
THE UGLY STEP-SISTER PART 2We are currently in a strong bull channel for silver, leading towards $20.
I still believe silver will be the stronger performing PM by % over the next few months.
Although we ended in the red today, the fact that there was such strong support at the $18 level is a very good sign for bulls. MACD is looking to cross here on the 1D.
THE UGLY STEP-SISTERI made the poor choice (captain hindsight), to long silver miners (point A) instead adding to some of my fav gold miners (AEM/BTO).
My rational behind this was I truly believed that silver had bottomed at the $17 level (which has proved to have been correct so far), and that it would bounce back over $18 in the next few months (which it is still on track for). I had also believed that because silver has an actual use in this world (compared to gold), that it would be the stronger PM by % in the next handful of months (which is still a possibility).
However, my silver miners have been lagging behind my gold miners significantly, causing me immense frustration over the past few weeks (perhaps I have the wrong stock, I don't know). I still have hope for silver to start catching up to gold's %'s on the year, and having this trade pay off.
It is currently making higher daily lows on it's current trend-line, however it really hasn't made any significant moves. I believe that we potentially see 18 this week, depending on whether or not silver continues it's bullish momentum (RSI rising), and whether or not we catch some help from the NFP report on Friday (or some more help from Clinton). I believe it will continue to move up along this trend-line.
Will silver change from the ugly-step sister and become Cinderella? Stay tuned...
Magnificent high leverage CAD JUNIOR SILVER minerAurcana Corporation is a Vancouver-based company whose shares are listed for trading on the TSX Venture Exchange (AUN.V). Aurcana owns the Shafter Project, a silver deposit located in Presidio County, southwest Texas. The Shafter Project was advanced and substantially built prior to being placed on care and maintenance in December, 2013.
vimeo.com
The American Metal Co. of Texas acquired the property in 1926. Operations ceased from July 1930 until 1934 due to low silver prices. By 1940, the quality of the ore was 10.7 ounces of silver per ton. The recorded production of the Presidio Mine between 1883 and 1940 was 30,972,286.15 ounces of silver. Production from 1927 to 1940 alone was 11,809,163.8 ounces of silver , 5,406 ounces of gold, and 7,678,049.8 ounces of lead. (Ross, Clyde (1943). Geology and Ore Deposits of the Shafter Mining District, Presidio County, Texas (USGS Bulletin 928-B ed.). Washington: US Government Printing Office. pp. 45–125.)
The Company recently announced a resource estimate for the Shafter Project and has completed an in-house review of the historic database and exploration potential.
The company is led by an experienced, seasoned management team that includes mining, legal, finance and geological professionals. Aurcana is committed to deliver maximum value for its shareholders, stakeholders and employees.
Close Watch on Silver 16.42Silver currently trading near the level of 16.25, If Silver holds above the level of 16.42 which is the 100 days MA we short for a short term upsurge very quick to the level of 20.70. Currently facing the resistance zone of 16.42. Any close above it shall see a rocket to the above said levels.
SH SIORTLVER ::: RISK CALL :::SILVER is expected to SINK now.
The reason why we feel SILVER may SINK.
* On weekly basis it has just started SINKING
* To Rise and come near 14.98 levels
* Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) is SINKING.
* RSI (14,CLOSE) is SINKING.
* CCI (20,CLOSE) is SINKING.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to Rise. Our SELL call shall be from SELL BELOW :15.22, SL: 15.28, Tgt 01: 15.05, Tgt 02: 14.98, Tgt 03: 14.76.
The view expressed here is on weekly basis. [b ]Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
SILVER SHORT ::: RISK CALL :::SILVER is expected to SINK.
There are many reason why we feel it may ......
* BEARISH ENGULFING in WEEKLY Chart.
* To SINK and come near 14
* Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may SINK.
* RSI(14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
* CCI(20,CLOSE) Is also saying the same.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. Our short call shall be from 15.22 with a SL @: 15.27 Tgt01: 15.08 Tgt02: 15.02 Tgt03: 14.83. This may be very quick as we are expecting Silver to bounce back from mid week. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
SILVER SHORTXAGUSD is expected to sink now.
There are many reason why we feel it may sink.
01. It has not sustained quarterly buy level.
02. Pinball in daily Chart.
03. To sink and come near quarterly sell level of 14.12
04. Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may sink.
05. RSI(14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
06. CCI(20,CLOSE) Is also sinking.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. Our sell call shall be from Short below 15.56 SL@: 16.77 Tgt 01: 15.44 Tgt 02: 14.52 Tgt 03: 14.12. We are expecting this to happen shortly. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
















