Copper – Targets for the Year: 15,760 > 16,600 – 16,800 > 14,800Good day, friends. Today we will try to analyze the current situation in the copper market for this year and identify key targets for the year. Let's start with the news that had the biggest impact:
🔴 Codelco — El Teniente: Tunnel Collapse (July 2025) A tragedy at the world's largest underground copper mine, caused by seismic activity triggered by mining operations. Current Situation:
Partial resumption — 8 underground sectors deemed safe are operational, running at ~75% capacity
Production Losses in 2025: 48,000 tonnes of copper
❌ Exact recovery date not announced. Forecast — no earlier than late 2026.
Codelco — A Chilean state-owned company and the world's largest copper producer. Operates legendary deposits: • El Teniente — the world's largest underground copper mine • Chuquicamata — one of the largest open-pit mines • Radomiro Tomic — high-grade ore Codelco faces challenges: aging assets, declining copper ore grades, and the need for large-scale investments in modernization.
🔴 Freeport-McMoRan — Grasberg: Landslide and Force Majeure (September 2025) A serious incident at one of the world's largest copper mines Force majeure declared on deliveries
Recovery Plan: • Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines (unaffected) restarted in Q4 2025 • Main mine Grasberg Block Cave — phased restart from Q2 2026 Phase 1 - Q2 2026 - Beginning of phased restart of Grasberg Block Cave Phase 2 - H2 2026 - Reaching 85% capacity Full Recovery - 2027 - 100% capacity
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) An American company with the world's most profitable copper mine — Grasberg in Indonesia. Key facts:
• Grasberg is also one of the largest gold deposits (gold bulls send their regards) • Largest copper producer in the USA (Morenci mine in Arizona) • Actively developing underground mining at Grasberg
🔴 DR Congo — Copper Mine Collapse (November 2025) This is not a major corporate mine, but the incident highlights the risks of mining in the region. • African Copper Belt — DR Congo and Zambia are attracting major investments
✅ Kamoa-Kakula — Smelter Launch (November 2025) This is the biggest event in the industry. Estimated Smelter Capacity - 500,000 tonnes/year (direct-to-blister) Product - Copper anodes (first melt completed) Production in 2025: 388,838 tonnes of copper in concentrate Forecast for 2026: Sales 20,000 tonnes above production (inventory realization)
p.s. There is no incentive to sell inventory now; better to wait for price growth and sell in Q2 2026 for higher margins.
Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining launched their own 500,000 tonnes/year smelter directly on-site in DR Congo. This allows production of high-purity copper anodes instead of exporting concentrates, significantly increasing margins.
🟡 Escondida and Zaldivar — Strike (January 2026) The world's largest copper mine is experiencing disruptions. Protesters are blocking access roads to the mines. Blockades affect access to Escondida (BHP) and Zaldivar in the La Negra industrial sector, Chile.
📈 Factors Supporting DEMAND
China — Massive investments in renewable energy Target by 2035 - 3,600 GW of solar and wind capacity (new commitment) State Grid Investments - 89 billion USD planned for 2025 — a record level Each GW of solar capacity requires ~2,500-5,000 tonnes of copper . Grid expansion and energy storage require even more. This creates sustainable long-term demand.
USA — Tariff Policy (Section 232) November 1, 2025 - 25% tariff imposed on imports of medium and heavy trucks and parts November 14, 2025 - Framework agreement announced with Switzerland and Liechtenstein (rate reduction) November-December 2025
Impact on copper Tariff uncertainty stimulated frontloading by American importers, temporarily boosting demand.
Electric Vehicles — Continued Growth In 2025, over 18.5 million electric vehicles were sold globally, accounting for ~25% of new sales. Each EV contains 80-100 kg of copper (4 times more than ICE vehicles).
Summary November 2025 became a turning point for the copper market: The combination of factors — China's massive investments in renewable energy, US tariff policy, and multiple disruptions at the world's largest mines — created a powerful bullish impulse that supported prices above 13,000 USD/tonne. Particularly significant is that the three largest producers (El Teniente, Grasberg, Escondida) simultaneously faced problems, which is a rare coincidence that amplified the supply deficit.
Now for the technical analysis. In this forecast, we use Fibonacci extension zones for price and time, projecting onto the industry information and expected events we've gathered. The overall trend is bullish. I assume that the current uncertainty with strikes will last up to 2 months, and we will observe sideways movement for some time while buyers accumulate positions and replenish inventories for subsequent resale, amid growing demand and increasing deficit due to accidents at major facilities.
Next — growing demand (including the new Kamoa-Kakula smelter) will push the price toward 15,760 – 15,800 (which we should reach by May).
Then — relative price stabilization in the range of 15,780 – 16,600 Likely price breakout ~ 16,800
After which , amid news of the restart of Grasberg Block Cave and other damaged mines, as well as news of increased copper production in DR Congo , buyers will take profits , leading to a phased price correction .
As copper production in DR Congo continues to grow:
2025 - ~3,210 thousand tonnes | +0.3%
2026 (forecast) - ~3,404 thousand tonnes | +6%
First correction target: ~ 14,800
Second target: ~ 13 200
What do you think?
With Respect to Everyone, Your #SinnSeed
Long
