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SPX Has Now Broken Down From Our Wedge As AnticipatedTrading Fam, It's time. We've prepared. SPX has now broken our wedge to the downside. Another candle on the daily will confirm this bearish move. I expect the 50-day SMA to give us a bit of a bounce. We may retest the underside of the wedge before further moving down at the end of this week or the beginning of next. Again, as stated in my previous video post, I would expect us to draw back to at least that 200-day SMA in red. More likely, we'll go to support, which intersects with that 350-day SMA (orange) at around 6100. If we go lower and break below that 350-day SMA, we're likely to test the bottom of our channel. Trade accordingly once confirmation of this bearish move can be had. ✌️Stew
TVC:SPXShort
by stewdamus
SPX - Next LevelsWe’re evaluating the move starting from April 2025. It looks like we’re nearing the end of this move, currently plotting the fifth wave. Corrections of waves 2 and 4 are roughly equal in size. Fibonacci levels indicate the next target around 7,200 . The 7,600 level (slightly below or above) roughly aligns with a larger Fibonacci extension, counting the first wave from October 2022 to July 2023. Potential targets: 7,200 7,600 --- Please subscribe and leave a comment. You’ll get new information faster than anyone else. ---
TVC:SPXLong
by NotBoringTrading
SPY - On Our Way To Target 3 ...But First?Trading Fam, It's been a while since I updated you all on the SPY, which, as you know, we track closely to help us determine the overall market trend. Since we have now exceeded my Target #2, it's time for me to give you all another update. But first, a little context for my new readers which I have been getting a lot of recently, thanks to my new indicator hitting it out of the park. So, we began marking targets on our chart here after spotting an inverse H&S on the daily chart a few years ago. Many of my followers back then were doubtful the pattern would fully form, or if it did, that it would actually play out. But the pattern completed about 14 months ago and subsequently broke the neckline in June of last year. I then knew we were going full send and have been predicting a 700 SPY final target since. This target has been made utilizing both that inverse H&S pattern as well as a longer-trend Elliot Wave, which I don't have denoted here at this point. The chart gets too messy with all of my markings. Regardless, we are currently in wave 5 and heading steadily towards that 670-700 target #3, my final target. But be careful! Today, we have hit the underside of that RED area, which is HUGE resistance. I would expect that we will NOT break straight through this without some pullback prior. Indeed, the market is overextended at this moment, and we'll need the volume to be able to push through. Could this occur? Of course, anything is possible. But, it is not likely right now. My guess is that we'll at least pull back to one of those levels below us or possibly even re-touch that 200 SMA in red before the final push. Anyways, it is worth taking note of what may be ahead of us in the next few weeks or months so that you can plan your trades accordingly. Stay with me. We're almost there. ✌️Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam, Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Combined US Indexes - Time to make a Lower HighFrom the last time, the Combined US equity indexes did keep into the Extension Zone (EZ) as marked out. This Zone is defined from the lowest point of the TD Setup and the range is determined by the range of the candle that has the lowest point, this case being Candle 9 (4 March). So after the expected two week in the EZ, we see an indication of the week ahead to continue the Sell Setup and break out of the EZ for the week, at least from mid-week where it would be candle 9. According to TD rules, this Sell setup is NOT bullish, and can be expected to turn further down from resistance (Orange Line). This orange line is determined from the weekly chart where there is an ongoing TD Buy Setup (bearish) that needs to be kept intact for the trend to continue. So, based on the techincals, the combined US equities may be seeing a last week of bullishness which goes through the yellow ellipse, then face strong resistance and continue the main Bearish trend (as depicted by the prevailing Buy Setup (20Feb to 4Mar). Noted that the main trend changed to Bear once the TDST was broken down on 3Mar. Here are very good live examples for those keen on (Thomas) Demark indicators; watch and wait for it to develop...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
SPY Gap Filled - Local Bottom - More SendTrading Fam, I am not overlooking the small H&S pattern seen on this chart. I am simply presenting alternative data. What if that H&S pattern fails? It can happen. Even if we do drop further, our target down is that pink horizontal trendline. Will we get there before more buying ensues? Possibly. But this market is still bullish. The larger bull trend is still very much in tact. Additionally, we can see that an important gap has been filled. Therefore, it is very possible that the small H&S pattern we see here will not reach its target down. If that is the case, we'll turn up again, continue through my Target #2 which was already hit, and proceed onward and upward to my final Target #3 (670-700) until that is reached sometime in 2025. Therefore, you are not wrong to start DCA'ing in at this point. ✌️ Stew
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
5
SG10Y - a peek into the next few weeks.As pointed previously for the last few years... the SG10Y Singapore Govt 10 year Bond Yields chart have an uncanny correlation to give us a heads up on when the US Equity markets like the S&P500 SPY SPX are going to keel over and drop. On such instance is here and now. A higher high and a clear breakout after a Fibonacci retracement, within a bigger retracement. This is a clear and present indication that (US) equity markets are going to keel over and drop. Bears are just around the corner. Pain till Mid-Feb Heads up.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Combined US Equities - not nice end, not expecting a great startQuick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart... A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the 2024. And IF it exceeds the last low, then it is a tell all that 2025 is not going to be bullishly exciting. In any case, a good retracement is overdue and likely comes in 1Q2025 Technicals here show weakening MACD and a decelerating rate of VolDiv. Let's see how bullisht the first day of 2025 and the first week of 2025 can be... not terribly optimistic IMHO. In any case... HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025 everyone! Stay safe and stay happy!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y SG Govt Bond Yield UNCANNY heads up on US EquitiesHere is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line). Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa. This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red time lines, respective to SPY from the SG10Y leading indications. Just middle of this past week, the SG10Y spiked strongly and broke out, the next day saw the SPY tank significantly. In fact, the MACD for the SG10Y had already pre-warned of the breakout two days earlier! Given the current set up, as usual, I do my technical and charting projections. And in this case, it is clear that the Santa rally fizzled, year closign and next year opening should be weak until early February. Now, if this projection works as it should, then we would likely see a weak 2025 for the US equities... not only to take profit, but also offers opportunities to buy in at some point. (side note: as far back as 2020, 2025 was marked as the year of some resurgence of affliction from the neck upwards. It is a little sketchy, but it would very well be the surprise to tank the markets enough... watch for it)
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 6117 (Wave “3”).Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will still make new highs. I expect that the wave “5” of the middle order is not yet complete. Perhaps the price will test the 50% Fibonacci level of 5847 and then start an upward movement to the resistance area of 6117 (Wave “3”). This correction may not happen, then it would mean that the price continued the wave “3”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
15
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit. Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600. Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week. ✌️ Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
1
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead. At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915. Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
29
VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past. SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices. We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed. It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics. Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
CAPITALCOMSB:VIXLong
by SkyTrees
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
1