#ES_F Daily TF Longer Outlook UpdateBack in October we broke down Daily Outlook after we had topping signals and strong trend break. When that was posted we were looking to two possibilities after the trend was broken, we either needed to get back under Smaller MA without reaching the top to show no acceptance in New Range to then proceed with trend change and a slower correction or stay above Smaller MA to push for higher VAH/Edge areas to make this our range for some time and possibly balance between VAH/VAL with pushes out of them finding their way back in.
What ended up happening is we got a push back into MA but closed over it and more buying came in to push and gap us over VAH into Range Top, of course we had no way of knowing that Range Edge would be the top but we pushed into it and showed clear topping/rejection from it.
This time Edge Top rejection was much stronger and got us back under VAH/Smaller MA, flushed VAL with Medium MA which again provided Temp Support and as mentioned we got that balancing action between VAL / VAH with pushes out rotating back in until we broke/closed under Medium MA and got more selling which took us under Range Edge Low, flushed Previous Range VAH and Large MA but as that was first tag of big MA after spending quite some time away it naturally provided buying to get us back in New Range which we showed acceptance in by Previously Tagging the Top which meant once price is back in, it doesn't need much big buying as it just wants to rotate back towards Supply which so happens to be at/over VAH.
Where can we go from here ?
The flush under Edge Low temporarily changed Medium Trend into correction but the bounce didn't let us stay in correction and instead we go that rotation into Supply and are now technically again in Up Trend over MAs.
Yes we can stay in up trend and continue with sideways/strength/inside days that will keep us up Over/Around VAH while we let Smaller/Medium MAs catch up and continue pushing us towards Edge Top and maybe even push us into New Range Above.
But few things we have to consider... We are at the top of Big Big area (under new price level of 7000), We had a huge run this year, We have showed multiple Topping Patterns here around 6800 - 6900 +/- Areas, We have showed good trend breaks and attempts at trend change, We are back in area of Supply where bigger failures/sellers have came in, We are extended from Medium and Small MAs which provide support in New/Untested areas and this time we are extended away into Supply Area not New area.
With all that in mind will we have strong buyers who will come in here and start buying the extension inside Supply ? Or was this extension all momentum buyers who aren't planning to hold us up.
My current bias is if we look at Cost Basis break out area up to our Top, then the Flush to Large MA and back up, to me it looks like one side of a bigger M topping pattern which happens at bigger tops. If that is the case then either Friday or somewhere close we should be marking our Lower High and if buyers from Last Week will not hold this then price will want to head back towards some sort of Support which would be Smaller MA as the first spot which means back under VAH. Something to be careful of is that since now VIX is down, Volume will be down as well with holidays coming which means even if we start moving down it might be more of the same way we got up here last week which was more of Slower Balance(Back and Forth) Up days. Way down could be similar with slower balance down days.
From there Smaller MA and areas under it can Provide Support and keep us in some sort of sideways action around it BUT as long as we keep holding under VAH 860s - and under Edge Top 920s then that will mean Weakness, we would look for a move under VAH that can stay under it even if it consolidates around, then into Mean where Medium MA should be by the time we get there, of course it could happen fast as well but have this feeling that it might be a drag this time around IF it happens.
We already have a week of fresh Supply up here from Last Week and if we again get under Smaller MA and can again change trend under Medium MA then that will bring in more weakness to continue for lower targets back towards VAL which could also provide holds BUT if trend stays in correction and we are to follow through with the M pattern then we will eventually see a move back under Range Edge Low and aim to take out the low we made on the last Flush Nov 21st which would be the M middle which could give us more weakness to take us towards our Correction Areas lower into the Cost Basis. Again if market has topped out and all the large selling for now is done, if this is to happen then careful of forcing for it to happen quick as this can play out over a longer period of time as market may need a longer breather/correction/consolidation before it can start a new stronger trend again.
If we don't end up getting a correction under Medium MAs under VAL/Edge then staying over VAL can keep price in balance with us going back and forth in 6700 - 6900s areas for some time, to not have a correction or prevent price balance and see more strength price would need to let some MAs catch up and push us over Previous High AND be able to stay above it, until then we will be looking at either more Balance or Balance with Weakness which can give us a correction.
Snp500
SPY FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅SPY price is reacting inside a major supply zone after a displacement shift, signaling downside intent as liquidity above has been swept. Favoring continuation lower as price seeks inefficiency fill.
—————————
Entry: 686.84$
Stop Loss: 690.00$
Take Profit: 682.00$
Time Frame: 4H
—————————
SHORT🔥
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to MAX of wave "3" of 6928.Colleagues, we continue the previous scenario of upward movement in the impulse “12345”.
I expect a small correction in the middle order wave “2” approximately to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (6675).
Then I expect a continuation of the upward movement to the maximum of the wave "3" of the higher order 6928.4.
It is possible that the first wave may be stretched, which may mean a correction-free movement to the target.
Fundamental Context.
Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish ahead of this week’s US data releases. Investors continue to price in a softer Fed policy path for 2026, which supports the equity market after the recent correction.
US Treasury yields remain under pressure, and the latest macro indicators — especially labor market cooling and weaker business activity components — reinforce expectations of an economic slowdown. This backdrop typically favors equity upside as markets look ahead to potential policy easing.
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SPY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello, Traders!
SPY is tapping into a premium supply zone after a sharp displacement, with liquidity resting below the recent swing structure. Price is expected to retest the rejection block before delivering a move into downside objectives. Time Frame 6H.
Sell!
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SPX500 Short
Deep crab pattern completes on M15, mapping a potential reversal zone.
Multiple tops formed on M15 and M30 at the same area, reinforcing overhead supply from the prior day’s high that price could not break.
RSI reached overbought on M15 and M30, indicating crowded long positioning.
Approximately 20 points of RSI bearish divergence across M15 and M30, consistent with a weakening advance.
H4 has turned down after last week’s rebound and now aligns with a downside continuation view.
Daily slope is flattening and price is trading beneath it, suggesting the early stages of a broader reversal can develop if sellers follow through.
Bias is short of the reversal zone identified by the deep crab and repeated tops.
Stop loss set at 50 pips to cap risk if resistance fails.
First target at 6,600, which is 100 pips from entry, with room to manage partials at nearby structure if momentum confirms.
Several US indices and other global indices are printing similar topping behavior and momentum fades, adding intermarket confluence to the short idea.
S&P500 H1 | Bearish Reaction Off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud.
Sell entry: 6,711.35
- Strong pullback resistance
- 78.6% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 6,785.20
- Overlap resistance
Take Profit: 6,641.93
- Overlap support
High Risk Investment Warning
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From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme
The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs).
However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors.
On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing.
In short:
The market is caught between two opposing forces:
The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and
The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth).
This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings.
What is the Market Doing?
Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion.
Current price action shows the market compressing between:
6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL
6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge
These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up.
The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875.
What to Expect in the Coming Week
The key line in the sand (LIS) this week:
→ 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement
Bullish Scenario
If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward:
6874.50 — previous week's VPOC
6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high
Anticipate responsive sellers in this area.
However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation.
Bearish Scenario
If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback:
First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL
If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward:
6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low
6504 — previous month's low (deeper target)
This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively.
Neutral / Compression Scenario
If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume:
Expect two-way rotational trade
Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range
A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts
Conclusion
As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts.
As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
VAH (Value Area High)
VAL (Value Area Low)
VPOC (Volume Point of Control)
SD (Standard Deviation)
S&P500 H4 | Bearish Reaction off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud.
Sell entry: 6,706.19
- Strong pullback resistance
- 61.8% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 6,790.06
- Swing high resistance
Take Profit: 6,602.91
- Swing low support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6775.Dear colleagues, according to the last forecast the price is at the support level, but as it turned out, the correction in wave “4” is a bit more complicated than I thought.
Wave “4” consists of three waves “ABC” and should be over soon. The upward movement is still in priority, but I will target the not so distant resistance area of 6775.
Once it is reached, we will think about how to reach higher levels.
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SPY Long From Demand Area! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY tapped the higher-timeframe mitigation block after clearing sell-side liquidity, showing a strong bullish response. If displacement continues, price may rally toward the premium target. Time Frame 5H.
Buy!
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S&P500 H1 | Bearish Reaction off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud.
Sell entry: 6,839.11
- Strong pullback resistance
- 78.6% Fib retracement
- 161.8% Fib extension
Stop Loss: 6,881.31
- Swing high resistance
Take Profit: 6,770.32
- Pullback support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
SPY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY Price taps the horizontal supply area and shows rejection, signaling potential distribution as liquidity thins above the zone. With bearish orderflow returning, a corrective move toward lower liquidity pockets is likely.
--------------------
Stop Loss: 675$
Take Profit: 667$
Entry Level: 672$
Time Frame: 2H
--------------------
Sell!
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SPY FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅SPY price rejects a major supply block after running buy-side liquidity, shifting intraday flow bearish. With displacement confirming downside intent, a draw toward the discount target zone is likely.
———————————
Entry: 671.95$
Stop Loss: 675.80$
Take Profit: 667.20$
Time Frame: 2H
———————————
SHORT🔥
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S&P500 H1 | Bullish Bounce off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently within the bullish ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 6,817
- Strong overlap support
- 23.6% Fib retracement
- 127.2% Fib extension
Stop Loss: 6,774
- Swing low support
Take Profit: 6,874
- Swing high resistance
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
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S&P 500 H1 | Bullish Bounce off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 6,849.07
- Strong overlap support
- 50% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 6,814.5
- Swing low support
Take Profit: 6,883.1
- Strong overlap resistance
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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S&P500 H1 | Bullish Bounce off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 6,811.61
- Pullback support
- 50% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 6,773.85
- Swing low support
Take Profit: 6,848.7
- Overlap resistance
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to max of wave "3" area of 6929.4.Good afternoon colleagues, it looks like the correction is ending and soon I expect wave “5” in the upward movement. Perhaps wave “4” will update the low of 6637.8 before the upward movement.
I expect to reach the maximum of wave “3” at 6929.4. Further we will observe the price behavior in this area.
Fundamental Background
The US stock market remains positive: business activity data showed a steady expansion, which strengthens confidence in corporate earnings.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500: Q3 Earnings Surge Amid Rising RisksResilient Earnings Growth in a Challenging Environment
Honestly, even with all the warning signs flashing red, the S&P 500 just pulled off something impressive. Companies in the index posted 10.7% annual earnings growth in Q3 2025 - and that’s no small feat. It’s a real testament to how resilient U.S. businesses are right now, no matter what.
Four Quarters of Double-Digit Gains: A Rare Streak
That said, staying long in this market is getting trickier. The stakes are rising. Valuations are stretched, policy signals are mixed, and while earnings are strong, the margin for error is shrinking. It’s one of those moments where you have to respect the strength - but also stay sharp.
What stands out is this: we’ve now seen four straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth in the S&P 500 - something we haven’t seen since the post-COVID surge in 2021. Companies are still delivering, even amid inflation and high rates. In Q3 2025, 83% of firms beat EPS estimates , well above the 5- and 10-year averages. But the average surprise was just 5.3%, down from historical norms. Wins are frequent, but margins are narrowing.
Sector Heavyweights Drive the Rally-But at What Cost?
The bulk of the upside came from Financials, Tech, and Consumer Discretionary. JPMorgan NYSE:JPM , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT - the usual suspects - carried the weight. The Magnificent 7 are doing all the heavy lifting, which makes the market more fragile. If one stumbles, the whole index gets affected. It doesn’t feel comfy to me.
Stretched Valuations Signal Vulnerability
We must honestly admit that valuations are stretched. The S&P’s forward P/E is 22.9 - considerably above the 5-year average of 19.9. We’re clearly pricing in even stronger earnings ahead, but here’s what really worries me: if growth falters, this market could snap back hard. Instead of a smooth landing, we might get a sharp correction. There’s just too much optimism already baked into valuations.
Beyond Earnings: Labor Market Cracks and Data Blackouts
What’s even more concerning is what’s happening off the earnings sheet. The prolonged government shutdown is disrupting key macro data releases, leaving investors flying blind. For most of 2025, the labor market was in a “no hire, no fire” phase. But that’s changing. Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN just cut 14,000 jobs . UPS’s headcount is down 48,000 year-over-year. Target, Paramount - all trimming staff. These no longer look like isolated moves, and they need more unbiased scrutiny and sober projections.
SPY FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅SPY is currently retesting a premium supply zone after clearing buy-side liquidity. If the retest confirms rejection with displacement, a bearish continuation toward imbalance below is likely.
—————————
Entry: 670.89$
Stop Loss: 674.31$
Take Profit: 666.68$
Time Frame: 2H
—————————
SHORT🔥
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SPY Free Signal! Sell! (For Monday)
Hello,Traders!
SPY has tapped into a premium supply zone, triggering a potential bearish delivery after a clean liquidity grab above equal highs. Expect continuation toward sell-side imbalance.
---------------------
Stop Loss: 674.31$
Take Profit: 666.68$
Entry Level: 670.89$
Time Frame: 2H
---------------------
Sell!
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US Equities have this week left... Part IISo, yesterday heads up was given that the US Equities (and pretty much global equities generally) have this week left of bullishness.
This was observed with a TD Bear Setup perfected completion, coming into a stall. What was not mentioned was that the leading indicators of JNK, TIP and TLT were already showing signs of imminent breakdown (to understand about these three leads, refer to the book: Anatomy of the Bear by Russell Napier)
So just wanted to show it more obviously here.
While the US Equities were in a bit of a stall to close slightly positive, the three leads were clearly Bearish in the candlestick patterns with a single wipeout bearish, near marubozu, down candlestick that wiped out at least three days to two weeks of gain.
This like a slap in the morning while we are at the sweetest part of the dream.
Heads up, wake up!
Btw, with this kind of risk-off, crypto would not be spared either.
Short, sharp, sweet...
Week 11.03 - 11.07 Prep Last Week :
Last week we opened on a gap above Value and made a push over Edge top where we found our top and larger sellers for the week. Return to above VAL provided selling back into and eventually under the Edge. Holding under the Edge got us under MAs and changed the trend from uptrend to downtrend on 30m and 1h Time Frames, 2hr and 4hr frames only changed into correction without fully changing into downtrend. Holds under the Edge also provided good sells into lower VAH/Value for the gap fill towards end of the week when we got Month End profit taking but we were not able to fill the gap, instead we ran out of Supply Friday Midday and got end of the week short covering which drove price back out Value without filling the gap or staying in Value.
This Week :
So far this week we have again opened over Value and have been balancing between VAH and Edge in Globex, right now Edge again provided good sell back towards VAH and it may seem like it can continue selling but this will be the area to be careful at, at least to start the week as we are starting New Month, New week and it would be best to see what order flow we get, of course it is possible that we just continue lower right away but also this could be an area where we will see more covering above the Gap which can keep price over it and eventually once selling slows down could give another rotation towards/into and possible over the Edge.
As mentioned last week we are currently inside 915 - 875 +/- Intraday Range with 900 - 890 being its mean and price can stay within this range until it accepts under 870 - 65 areas without popping back over 75 then we know we have accepted in lower Intraday Range of 870 - 830 and can continue through its targets which would be 855 - 845 Mean area and down into/towards 830 - 20s. If we do hold this current range we are in then it is still possible that it will bring more buying as buyers like to start getting in once price holds which could still push us up towards/over the Edge and maybe even back towards above VAL, how far over Edge we get would be determined by order flow IF it happens but this will be the spots to be careful on the long side instead of getting excited for new ATH or continuation over previous one even if we take it out. Our bigger sellers will still be lurking over the Edge and closer to above VAL which means if we see a push out we could either see a quick or after consolidation return back under the Edge.
For price to change things back into stability or strength from here we would need a strong push over VAL with Medium/Larger MAs following behind us for support to be able to hold the price in/around new Value to show acceptance in New Hourly Range, unless this happens we have to keep thinking that top is in for now and look for return trips away from it which would make price want to return to previous Value.
If we do get strong selling continuation today/tomorrow through 70 - 65 and keep it under then of course we will go with that and keep targeting the Mean/Gap fill and push under the Mean but unless you see clear selling under 70 - 65 careful looking for too much continuation from here early on, it might take few days to decide what we will do and get ready for a good move into lower Value which maybe happen either from above the Edge or once we hold under it long enough and change trend on 2hr and 4hr Frames.






















