Bullish above last month HIGH Buy signal still valid SPX SPY SNPWith all the Doom & Gloom regarding recession worries we liked our idea even more so into Q1 close last month.
So far so good however we are still very early in Q2.
We remain bullish above last months high (March 2023)
Seeking Pips will be managing our positions on the Weekly and Daily charts.
We also note that the current price is also in a key Fib retracement zone to SELL SPX on the monthly chart so we will not be surprised to see another pullback, again we would consider adding to our core position if this happens and volatility is right.
Our Bull & Bear price level is clear and as long as we above it we want to be buyers only.
A failure of March 2023 Low we would have to revaluate our current thesis.
Happy trading have a GREAT WEEK.!
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Snp500
SPX RALLY CONTINUESAll indicators are showing a continuous rally on the SPX. Despite closing lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, the index rebound in the next two trading days and almost managed to reach the opening levels from Tuesday.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the bullish trend, with MACD histogram being above zero and RSI above 50 neutral line.
If this scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 4312.In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be viewed the price of 4000, after it new lows of 3925 might be reached.
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SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIITime for yet another update in this uncanny inverse relationship between the SG10Y Government Bonds and the S&P500 Index ETF, SPY...
Recall that the SG10Y GBond yields are in apparent inverse correlation to the SPY. When there is a trendline breakdown on the yields, the SPY is bullish; and when there is a trendline breakout, the SPY is bearish.
So far, it can be observed that this relationship is intact and predictable, with the SPY forging bullishly when the SG10Y GBond yields are falling...
Note that a support is approaching and this can mean either or both of two things:
1. There should be a brief stall in momentum incoming soon; and
2. The primary trend for the SG10Y GB Yields is bearish, expected to break the support and head further down until the end of April 2023. This also suggests that April should see a surge in the SPY (and S&P500), denoted by the larger green arrow.
So far, now change in the yield downtrend, at least for the next week, until it reaches the expected downside target (red circle).
US500 H4 | Potential bounce off from 23.6%?Looking at the H4 chart, it appears that the price is nearing our buy entry at 4058.68. This level is a pullback support level, accompanied by a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit level is set at 4135.55, which is a swing high resistance. We will set our stop loss at 4007.06, which is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
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VXX (VIX ETN) showing bullish divergence for volatility comebackJust noted that the VXX (the VIX ETN) is showing a bullish divergence in both the MACD and the VolDiv as it returns to the consolidation zone and bounces near the support.
Breaking out above 46 and then 47 should trigger another bout of volatility... question is IF 58 will be a good resistance or is it to break beyond that level the next round?
IMHO, expecting a massive breakout...
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 04 WEEK
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 04 WEEK
Market may be continued to be marked up. However, exercise
caution as weekly bar may be showing a bull trap.
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if 4175 is rejected
2) Continuation Long if 4082 // 4175 are supported
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close toward high
= no commitment to higher prices, possible trapping longs
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = non-trend changing
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4082
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Too big to fail?Dejavu of 2008 recession is looming here in the world stock markets.
This is not a joke.
Deutsch and Cahrles Schwab are having troulbes.
What if...more banks are revealing to fail.
Are they too big to fail?
MACD is getting bearish and all charts are indicating that parachutte mode is on.
Looks like we are on the edge of the mountain.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
NASDAQ - the candlestick that broke its backThe NASDAQ (and other indices like the SPY/SPX) appears to have what I would call the decisive candlestick(s).
For the NASDAQ, it appeared ready to break out and then it epic failed with a long tailed dark cloud cover type of candle. Speaks so much to say that it is heading down. IF it is as expected, then we should see a break down below the red box (outlined yellow), the break down area. This are holds a number of supports and breaking down below should see it pushed to 11750 support area around mid-April.
IF this is a wrong technical read, then 13,000 shoudl be easily attained and maintained. At this point, I do not see that happening, if at all.
Still early in the down draft, so technical indicators are not yet aligned.
Note to add...
SPY's candlestick closed the gap as well!
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Rally in $SPX Expected to Fail According to Elliott WaveS&P 500 (SPX) rally from 10.13.2022 low was in 3 swing and ended wave (2) at 4194.16 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 3943.08 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4078.49. The Index extended lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 3842.91 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 3937.27. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 3838.24 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high.
Internal of wave 2 is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3964.46 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 3901.27. Final leg higher wave ((c)) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The area comes at 4030.8 – 4110.1. From this area, sellers can appear and the Index can resume lower again. As far as pivot at 4194.16 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Will explain why market will go upPlease, look at the chart that SPX broke the long term downside trend since this year early-January .
If you see my previous analysis I was very bearish since middle of 2022.
Normally long term down trend reversal last at least 6months.
Upside has shown for 3months now.
I personally belive that one more quarter is left to play bullish further more.
1st. the gold price is holding strongly.
2nd. the copper price is holding strongly.
3rd. goverment yield is falling sharply.
4th. Dollar index is indicating bearish signs now.
I saw lots of positivie signals in 2020 march despite the covid crashing destroyed all equities.
This pattern looks similar now.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 20
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 20
No trade for SnP last week since levels not reached.
Scenario Planning:
1) Trades will be guided by the channel
2) Long on support and accept of 3788 // 3893
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: High vol up bar close above middle = demand
Daily: No Supply ave vol down bar
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
#ES_F 3.14.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.13.23 Review : We got a break of structure and 3892-87 level before RTH and got the flush to one of our possible Support targets at 3866-47, RTH order flow came in and and pushed us back in balance above, over all a great day we tagged Support target and hit Key Intraday Resistance at 3932-27 which gave another good short for the day back towards 3892-87.
Tuesday 3.14.23 Prep : We are currently Inside T2 Range, inside Previous Day Range and right around our Daily Support of 3915-3890 which we already broke multiple times. Currently our balance is 3932-3890 and we are waiting to see if we will make a move out today and continue lower or reverse/stay in balance? T2 and Previous Day buyers might have been just short covering and not real buying which means if more supply comes in today the lower levels wont hold... We are watching 3892-87 as our Key Support for continuation lower if we break and hold under we can see a move down towards our lower Support and Previous Day Low, IF that breaks (3853-47) We watch for possible continuation from there, our next Daily Support area is at 3809-3787 depending how much Supply we have we might find more short covering before next Daily Support as but if we have enough our bid is under 3800 which another area of buyers at 3776-60. If we do hold 3892-87 Today we watch if we will trade within this balance and possibly make a run at upper Supply area at 3953-40 but we must take out 3932-27 and hold 3915-10 for that to happen if not we can rotate lower. Data coming 8:30 today, might be good wait until it shows clear direction or until things settle down.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 // 3988-76 Key Intraday 3932-27 // 3944-40 // 3976-71
Support : Key Daily 3914-3890 // 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3892-87 // 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3809-05 Current 3900
SPX500 Short-Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThe most logical target for the downtrends in the SPX500 is this year's low at 3814.
The scenario described in the chart is the most likely if the sellers want to hit this target in the short term. Given the high volatility, this scenario doesn't have such a high probability to occur compared to a normal market state.
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF (IS THE KING)
- ETC
#ES_F 3.13.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.10.23 Review : Friday played out exactly within plan except for hitting 3866-47 target but we knew that was a stretch, we found sellers at 3976-71 which was Key Intraday Resistance which gave us nice short trades towards Daily Support at 3915-3890, was a very nice ending to the week.
Monday 3.13.23 Prep : As we can see Globex started the party early, first we opened and got a big move away from Daily Support which is expected any first tests of big areas more often than now will give a good reaction, we hit 3976-71 area sold our position on the way there and introduced more supply. Currently we are under T2 Range and under quite a bit of Supply still, there is no data or events today but we are at possible Daily Support area so if we get continuation how much of it will we get? We have 3915-3890 as our Key Daily Resistance and holding under could bring continued weakness, if we do hol dunder and take out 3878-74 that opens the door for our lower Support and 3853-47 test, if that breaks we watch for continuation towards our next Daily Support at 3809-3787 but could see buying come in before that around 35-25 area unless we are going down on strong volume and will just take those areas out. For us to see stability today we need to hold this 3866-53 area and push back inside previous days range but for now signs are pointing towards the downside unless the RTH order flow tells us otherwise.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3931-27 3944-40 Current 3892-87? 3901-98
Support : Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3866-63 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05 Current 3878-74? 3866-63
*** Careful trading today market has been acting weird since globex, we are at an area of bigger support so we have buyers BUT we also have size coming out and possible continuation to margin calls or size getting out unless we can hold this support area.
S&P500 / SPY up for a good bounceHere is what I see and why I think the S&P500 is due for a good bounce...
From the weekly chart,
1. The candlestick pattern is a rather bullish one. The candlestick itself from last week is beautifully bullish.
2. Last week's candle bounced off a very critical meeting point - 23EMA, trend line retest, a higher low, and a possible pivot of a triangle.
3. The VolDiv has crossed over. MACD did so too, and moderated a bit, so now waiting for more upside to pushing the alignment.
4. TIP, TLT, JNK leading indicators are also indicative of bullish upside.
5. USD is looking precarious to tip over and retrace. This bodes well for bullish upside.
One more condition needed... to close the weekly candle gap, and close the week decisively above 410.
One caveat is that a sudden turn of events, which at this point is not likely IMHO. Perhaps from May 2023...
all the best!